Round one selections

Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors – Sunday morning – Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

The Raiders aren't especially happy with the draw they've copped this season. They have just two games in Canberra in the first seven rounds, and they've got trips to Vegas, Townsville, Darwin and the Gold Coast to contend with. Notably a lot of those games are going to be played in tropical conditions, so it's going to hurt. Mind you, their round one opponents spend most of the season travelling between nations, so they aren't the only ones facing a tough itinerary. It doesn't take a lot to get the media up in arms these days and this time it was two young men on a night out in Vegas scuffling in a lift and hitting each other with an inflatable baseball bat. It's definitely the most disgraceful thing two young men have done in Vegas...ever...and I can't believe they're free to play on Sunday. In actual football news, James Fisher-Harris makes his debut for the Warriors and he's not likely to let anyone down. He's also the sort of player that will lift his fellow forwards, and this game is likely to be won straight down the middle. Note the narrower dimensions of Allegiant field - the team that adjusts their game to suit best will prevail. Expect the spine players to be key (as they often are), and it wouldn't be silly to back them to score tries in this if you're interested in that sort of chaos. I'm particularly keen on the halves combination of Metcalf and Harris-Tevita for the Warriors. I hope they have blinders.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result – Raiders 30 defeated Warriors 8

Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks – Sunday afternoon – Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

Just how deep is the Panthers depth? Fisher-Harris, Luai and Turuva have joined other clubs, and To'o won't be available for the opening round. Despite all that, the Panthers have (if I can count) six players in their starting thirteen that have won four grand finals in a row. They also have the last three Clive Churchill medalists (Cleary x 2, Martin, Edwards). No other club has that level of premiership-winning experience...for obvious reasons. With their best and brightest in Vegas, what was left of the Panthers took on Manly in a pre-season game, and won 38-22. This club is deep. The shiny brightness of Vegas shouldn't throw them off their game, given all that big-match experience. As for the Sharks, much of their big game experience has been disappointing. They've got a hell of a roster this season and plenty of people are talking them up. This will test them. Let's see how far they've come. 

Verdict – Panthers by a Nathan Cleary field goal

Result – Panthers 28 defeated Sharks 22

Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos – Thursday night – Allianz Stadium

This game is more than a week away, so there's a little bit of guesswork when it comes to team line-ups for this and the games that follow this in round one. The Chooks have had plenty scratching their heads leading into this season. They've lost Waerea-Hargreaves, Keary, Manu and Sua'ali'i from their squad, and the only new additions are Nawaqanitawase and Townsend. For a team often accused of cheating the salary cap it looks like they've underspent in season 2025. To add to their woes, Walker and Brandon Smith are injured and Leniu has been suspended following an indiscretion in their last pre-season hit-out. Speaking of which, their pre-season form has been close to woeful, but I'm always wary of this form and I urge you to feel likewise. As for the Broncos, they'll have the most experienced (oldest) halves pairing in the NRL this year (and possibly ever) with Ben Hunt (almost 35) joining Adam Reynolds (34). The Broncos will be without Kotoni Staggs and Payne Haas may be another week away from his return, but on paper they look too strong. It's also safe to assume that they'll be match-fit after a pre-season with the new coach. 

Verdict – Broncos by 10

Result – Broncos 50 defeated Roosters 14

Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights – Friday night – Campbelltown Sports Stadium

This is the game I'm looking forward to more than any other this round (and I don't get to say that about these two teams very often). The new Tigers spine of Koroisau, Galvin, Luai and Bula could, potentially, win a premiership. I'm well aware I'm getting ahead of myself here, but that's how good they could be. I just hope the combination works. 20 years ago the Tigers were one of the most entertaining teams in Australian sport. Let's hope their fans have some good years ahead of them after a very lean decade. The first-up assignment is a fair test, against a team that make the finals more often than not. The Knights are almost a complete football team, with perhaps a really first class playmaker the one missing piece in the puzzle. That would explain the ten-year, $!3 million offer to Dylan Brown. I've ended up tipping the Knights based on their back five (likely to be Ponga, Marzhew, Best, Gagai, Sharpe). That's a backline that can test the best of the best, and with the Tigers short on centres (Olam and Naden both injured) that can be the difference.

Verdict – Knights by 4

Result – Knights 10 defeated Tigers 8

Redcliffe Dolphins vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – CommBank Stadium

It's the first installment of the post-Bennett Dolphins, and of course they have to be playing against the new club of their former coach. Bennett would know his Dolphins well and I'm sure he's come up with a plan to knock them over. That said, the pre-season hasn't been kind to the Bunnies, with long-term injuries to Murray and Mitchell (who looked the fittest he'd been in years up until then). They've also lost Campbell Graham for a few weeks and the English import (Lewis Dodd) has been suspended. He'll be replaced by the up-and-coming Jamie Humphries in the halves, who has impressed thus far. The Dolphins pre-season has been a lot less troublesome, although Bostock picked up a knee injury last weekend and won't be available for a little while. It was great to see Flegler in the team colours on the weekend, with everyone crossing their fingers that he might be able to return to the game later this season. A terrible shame if he can't. If there isn't a cyclone in Brisbane on Friday night there should be a fair crowd in attendance. I don't have a lot of company, but I think the Dolphins can make the top eight this season, and they'll be winning this.

Verdict – Dolphins by 4

Result – Rabbitohs 16 defeated Dolphins 14

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Saturday afternoon – Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

I've been doing this for a while now, and from time to time I will throw out a few crazy statements. I may as well get started early this season - the Dragons will not finish last this season. In fact, I don't think any of the teams most are predicting will come last (Dragons, Knights, Titans, Raiders) will come last this season. There you go. Print that out and put it on your fridge for September, then remind me what an idiot I was back in February. While I'm putting myself out on a limb, the Dragons won't lose on Saturday either. They're big odds to overcome the Bulldogs, but I like the look of this Dragons side. It's loaded up with footballers who will be keen to prove a point to the teams they moved on from - Gutherson, Cook, Holmes, Ilias. Watch all four of them shine this weekend. 

Verdict – Dragons by 7

Result – Bulldogs 28 defeated Dragons 20

Manly Sea Eagles vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – 4 Pines Park

Thirty years of the North Queensland Cowboys and they've been frustrating more often than not. I'm not sure how often in those thirty years the Cowboys have travelled to Sydney in round one, but they haven't won a round one game in Sydney ever. That said, they have won their last two games at Brookvale, even though their recent overall record against Manly is poor. There's no shortage of match-winners in the likely Manly line-up for round one. Cherry-Evans isn't getting any younger but he's the Benjamin Button of the NRL and he's on the lookout for another contract. He'll be shining brightly on Saturday night, and will probably slot a field goal at some point just to remind everyone of the things he can do.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 7

Result – Sea Eagles 42 defeated Cowboys 12

Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels – Sunday afternoon – AAMI Park

Remember that list of teams that I said won't win the wooden spoon this year? Well, here's the team that I think will. Apologies to the Eels fans among us. Again, you can let me know how wrong I was in September...if I'm wrong. Given that bold prediction, you'd expect me to tip against them in round one, particularly against a side that are almost impossible to beat at home, and haven't lost a round one game anywhere for 22 years. A shout out to one of my favourite purple people in Christian Welch, who announced his medical retirement from the NRL a few weeks ago. Papenhuyzen is racing the clock to be fit for round one, but the young tyke he's holding back is a thousand kinds of awesome, and I wouldn't mind if he gets a run.

Verdict – Storm by plenty (20)

Result – Storm 56 defeated Eels 18

Wally Lewis - round one selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • Raiders vs WARRIORS
  • PANTHERS vs Sharks
  • Roosters vs BRONCOS
  • Tigers vs KNIGHTS
  • DOLPHINS vs Rabbitohs
  • Dragons vs BULLDOGS
  • SEA EAGLES vs Cowboys
  • STORM vs Eels

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

As you can see we have our tipping page for round one up and running. A special shout out to My Little Helper for all his usual shenanigans.

For our new tipsters, you can come back and make changes to your tips anytime up until the kick off for the first game of each round. 

If anyone has any questions, feel free to ask in the comments.

Rugby League peoples....here it comes

All the best

The Thinker

Dragons-fanboy's picture

Hey all, I am very keen for another tipping season with you all!
Up the Dragons!

a's picture

Hey everybody I’ve decided that I’ll start my comp again after missing last year however due to the split round I’ll be starting it round 2 sounds good

Mary S's picture

Great to know 'a' - look forward to starting the "3 strikes comp' again and R2 sounds perfect.

I know it's a lot of work for you, and I thank you for that in advance.

Cheers,
Mary

a's picture

Yes your welcome

ANDREW Bala's picture

Sorry, Mr thinker, but where do I submit my tips gor round 1 205??

The Thinker's picture

Hi Andrew Bala

I'm very sorry. All the spots in the tipping comp for this season have already been filled. If you are still keen for next season, let me know a week or two before we get started in 2026 and I will add you in.

All the best

The Thinker

Dragons-fanboy's picture

Hey all, my tips for this week with rounded off margins:

Warriors by 1-10
Panthers by 4-8
Broncos by 13+
Tigers by no more than 2
Dolphins by 10 or less
Dragons by no more than 6
Manly by 10-20
Storm by 20+

Thanks all! Best of luck for this season. Up the Dragons!🐉

Susanne Gibbons's picture

0n 2rd march round 1
raider, panther, broncos, tiger, dolphin, dragon, cowboys, storm
thanks

Bong's picture

where do i submit my tips

The Thinker's picture

Hi Bong

When you are logged in to the site, go down to the section with the heading called 'Guest tips for this round' on this page. You will see a bunch of icons for people who have already submitted their tips for the round. 

Just under that, you should see a link called '(show/hide the tipping form). This is only available to registered tipsters (like you). Click on that link, and it will open up the tipping form for round one. Pick your teams and click submit...and you're done.

Note that you can go back and make changes to your tips anytime up until the kick off for the first game in the round.

All the best

The Thinker

The Thinker's picture

Greetings tipsters

Just letting you know I will have my previews and selections for round one published tomorrow (Thursday). 

All the best

The Thinker

ANDREW Bala's picture

Okay thanks,

Bronco691's picture

warriors,10. Panthers, Broncos, Knights,Dolphins, Bulldogs, Manly, Storm.
Go MANLY.2025.

tigerholic's picture

Evening All
How good is it to have the footy back again. Thank you Thinker for putting this tipping comp on again, wouldn't feel right without it.

Welcome back to all tipsters from last year and a big hearty welcome to the new tipsters.

I am concerned for Rocket Ryan, with more tipsters in the comp, the lower he can fall.

Good luck everyone, enjoy the footy and I look forward to the banter.

Tiger

Rocket Ryan's picture

Great work thinker you have given hope to the few Tiger fans that have been hoping for a Lazarus type rise, poor fools like Tigerholic ,what I did notice that you like most tiger fans stopped short of tipping them.

MGM's picture

Hello Thinker , hello fellow tipsters.
Thankyou to you and your team for getting everything ready for us for this season Mr Thinker.
Good luck everyone !

newbie from perth's picture

THE END OF AN ERA 😥

Hey Fam,

Just a short note (those that know me will recognise that’s basically an impossible task 😂) to let you all know I won’t be partaking in the footy tipping this year. It’ll be sad to leave and not too sure for how long. There’s no sinister reason and I’m not dying or going to prison or anything like that. I just need to take a break and put some plans into action.

I need to focus on the “Big Picture” and not knowing how much time any of us really have left, I need to make a start sooner rather than later. Footy will only be a distraction to me given what I want and need to do and where I wanna do it.

Studying past games, collecting stats, poring over form, writing up comments, deciding which song of the week to put up 😍 and getting it all posted in time takes a fair chunk of my time (just ask the Boss how much of his time it takes up 😱) and I just think I should be spending that precious time doing stuff for me. Yeah, selfish I know but I reckon I’m at that stage of my life where I need to look after Newbie first.

Taking care of myself has nothing to do with any health issues, I’m in absolute tip top shape and feel great. I have started going down a few different paths (both physical and spiritual) that could be considered “alternative” but nothing too wacky.

I’m just gonna focus on working for another 12 months and then retiring. In the next 12 months I want to organise a new house out in the bush, get rid of a stack of possessions and clothes, start learning some new skills that will actually be of use to me and generally just get a move on. It’s hard to admit but I think I’m a bit of a procrastinator at times. Stepping away from the footy will remove yet another excuse for not getting my act together.

Anyway, I just wanna take this opportunity to thank the Boss especially for having me on here for the last 11 seasons. It’s been an absolute honour and privilege to have spent so many wonderful years here. You Sir, are an absolute legend and sincere thanks for doing what you do. I’m absolutely positive we all appreciate your efforts. May this little hidden gem of a website continue to thrive and give us mere mortals a place to enjoy all things footy. Love you man! 💪 💯

To everyone else, all the best for the future and may you all live long and prosper. You’re a great bunch of people and I’ll miss you all (some more than others 😉). I know there’s a few of you here who are more than capable of putting up authoritative comments and who really know their footy so please don’t hold back. Going “cold turkey” might prove a little hard so I’m expecting I might pop in and have a read occasionally when I have some spare time.

Now, a parting footy related comment … I’m not saying my beloved Roosters are garbage but considering the 9 or so regular first graders who are missing or injured from last year’s squad, I think my BBB are gonna struggle this year. I realised things were gonna be bad when we signed Chad Townsend (no offence Chad). To be honest, and it pains me to say this, but I’d be surprised if they actually made the 8 this year. I reckon it’s gonna be an “Annus Horribilis” 😥. I hope and pray it won’t be … but I think it will be. Swings and roundabouts people, swings and roundabouts.

Anyway, the time has come frens. “Exit left, stage right” as the old cartoon tiger (?) used to say. Might pop my head in somewhere down the track, who knows.

P.S. A parting “Song of the Week” to remember me by (maybe)

https://youtu.be/bQgjntBkvwg

… and another one just for the hell of it 💥 💪

https://youtu.be/MYma-rJO_1Y

Love you all … Peace! 🐔 🐔 🐔

Mary S's picture

I'll miss you Newbie.
Since joining The Thinkers website, I have looked forward to your weekly comments and SOW, plus seeing those 🐔 🐔 🐔 lined up!

I wish you all the very best in your future plans of study, decluttering or anything else your heart and mind turns to.

Look forward to any time you want to pop back in to comment or just say "Hello".

Cheers,
Mary😉

The Thinker's picture

@Newbie from Perth

I'm in shock...but I entirely understand.

When I've woken up properly I'll put something more meaningful down in words here, but...

Thank you for everything

All the best

The Thinker

Bong's picture

Hey Mr Thinker,
I still do not see the link of wher to submit my tips, if there woudl be a way for you to share it with me that would be great.

Cheers,
Bong

The Thinker's picture

Hi Bong

Can you put your tips for round one in the comments section for me.

I will add them in for you. You just need to pick your winning team for each of the 8 games. I don't need margins or anything else.

All the best

The Thinker

Shane's picture

Where’s Wallys tips?

Bong's picture

Hey Mr Thinker,
my tips are as follows
Dolphins vs Rabbitohs:
Dolphins
Dragons vs Bulldogs:
Bulldogs
Panthers vs Sharks:
Panthers
Raiders vs Warriors:
Warriors
Roosters vs Broncos:
Broncos
Sea Eagles vs Cowboys:
Sea Eagles
Storm vs Eels:
Storm
Tigers vs Knights:
Tigers

Cheers,
Mr Bong ;)

Grandpop's picture

I have the same question as Mr Bong and would appreciate having them included.
Dolphins
Bulldogs
Panthers
Warriors
Broncos
Sea Eagles
Storm
Tigers
Cheers
Grandpop

Gummy Sharks's picture

All the very best Newbie. I have enjoyed reading your weekly form guide as well. Keep safe.

tigerholic's picture

All the best Newbie
You have been a formidable tipster with a footy brain, hope you find what you are looking for.
If you google Camino Santiago which is a walk from France across Northen Spain to the coast, about 900km.

It is a pilgrimage, but you don't have to be religious because I am definitely not.

This walk I did in 2019 with my wife, and I am doing it again this April with my sister. People complete this walk after certain events in their lives and they go looking for answers to their worries and struggles in life.
I found the Camino changed me emotionally and since I came home, I have been drawn back to it. Have a look at the movie called "The way, My Way".

All the best mate

Tiger

BigPeteBx's picture

What a shock to the system Newbie.
Thanks for the great acquaintance we made here at Thinker Tipping.
It was as Mary said lovely to hear from you each week. I'll be thinking of you in June and Gunners may be too short for EPL Title in May. Take care and keep well and if u r relocating abroad be careful and aware, as this world is a changing place.
Be good and keep well & keep in touch here - BigPete.

Rocket Ryan's picture

I imagine a lot of Tiger supporters have made the Camino walk Tigerholic some people say fools seldom differ i however am not one of those people.

Esra Star's picture

All the very best,Newby.

The Thinker's picture

@Bong and Grandpop

I've added your tips for round one now.

All the best

The Thinker

ISAVAC's picture

Hi there Thinker,
I'm new to the comp and hoping to squeeze my tips in for the first round. My tips are as follows:
Dolphins
Dragons
Panthers
Warriors
Broncos
Sea Eagles
Storm
Knights
Looking forward to the season ahead!
Thank you ;)
ISAVAC

Michael N's picture

Hi Thinker,
I cannot enter my tips for round one, it won't allow me!
Can you please add them in me!
My tips for Round 1
Warriors
Panthers
Broncos
Knights
Dolphins
Dragons
Manly
Storm
Much appreciated Thinker
Cheers
Michael N

Michael N's picture

Hi Thinker,
I cannot enter my tips for round one, it won't allow me!
Can you please add them in me!
My tips for Round 1
Warriors
Panthers
Broncos
Knights
Dolphins
Dragons
Manly
Storm
Much appreciated Thinker
Cheers
Michael N

The Thinker's picture

@Michael N

Will do

All the best 

The Thinker

The Thinker's picture

Greetings everyone

The tipping form has closed a little early (or Vegas is late).

If you are a registered tipster and you haven't put your tips in yet, feel free to add your picks in the comments and I will update.

If you don't get your tips in before the first game kicks off, feel free to add your picks for the rest of the games and I will add.

All the best

The Thinker

ps Not sure if anyone else watched Wigan v Warrington...but it was terrific

Three Knees's picture

Got any no show spots left for comp?

ISAVAC's picture

Hey everyone!
I hope all.are well and looking forward to a much proved season of tipping for The Tide Head.
Soooo, during the off season. a PNG side took priority over a true national competition... in the interest of national security... WTF?
What else? 5 more years in the USA and The Westpac Red Zone... cha-ching $$$
Politics, Globalisation. and Capitalism have a firm grip on our game.
Have a great season, comrades ;)

TigerGirl's picture

Oops not a good start. I missed the deadline.
NZ
Penrith
Brisbane
Tigers
Dolphins
Dragons
Manly
Melbourne

The Thinker's picture

@TigerGirl

You're still level with me. I'll add your tips for the rest of the round.

Great to see you back

All the best

The Thinker

GOTTAKICKSTRAIGHT's picture

broncos
knights
dolphins
bulldogs
eagles
storm

BigPeteBx's picture

Heya there Tidey and hope all is well.
Nice to see you back again with us.
Oh yes mate - I know the gripe and what makes a PNG team a National Competition. Too much of politics in sport. Yes, they have players already playing here on mainland Oz and the experience does them well for their national teams and their international rep matches.
The money they plan to expend could do this nation wonders if it was used correctly and for Australian programs and necessities.
Even for a true national NRL and resurrect other clubs/states urging to get in/join.
Enough - but good luck this season and see you in some catchups along the way.
Keep well - Big Pete

FRIZEL MULA's picture

My tips for round 1;
Broncos
tigers
dolphins
dragons
cowboys
Storms

The Tide Head's picture

Awesome!

Mary S's picture

Gruesome!!!

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

Not sure what's going to happen with the Dolphins v Rabbitohs game on Friday night. Seems unlikely but we wait and see.

Tipping comp will be tweaked as needed.

For those of you in South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales...stay safe in the days ahead.

All the best

The Thinker

Steel Panther's picture

What a week to take a holiday on the Sunshine Coast. Arrived last Saturday & fly back home this Saturday. First visit back here since before Covid 🤬

Mary S's picture

NRL Media Release:

The National Rugby League (NRL) has confirmed the Friday night contest between the Dolphins and South Sydney Rabbitohs would be shifted to CommBank Stadium due to the impact of Cyclone Alfred in south-east Queensland.

The game will be played at the same scheduled time of 8pm Sydney time (7pm Queensland time) on Friday, March 7.

Cheers
Mary

The Thinker's picture

@Mary S

Thanks for the update

Much appreciated

The Thinker

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