Manly Sea Eagles vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – Sydney Football Stadium

You may have seen Darren Lockyer and his fractured head on the telly lately. On Saturday night his face looked like a dropped pie but it didn't stop him guiding the Broncos home in extra time. He wins games for his team, and he is one extraordinary performer. When he doesn't play the Broncos overall record is a little bit awful. Someone else has to step into the void and win this game for this team. At the very least they are on an almighty roll, and Sam Thaiday returns. His experience cannot be underestimated in what is a very young NRL side. Manly have dozens of fans and I don't want to upset them, but they have had an enormous amount of luck this season. They might be upset about having to drive over the Harbour Bridge to play their home games, but they haven't had to face a Sydney-based side this finals series. If they win this they won't have to face one next weekend either. Their second half performance over the Cowboys two weeks ago was the best they have played all year, but their opponent put the cue in the rack for the last twenty minutes.  It's hard to gauge how good that form really is. What I do know is that the Broncos-Dragons final last weekend was football at a higher level than I have seen from anyone else this season. Manly have a game on their hands. Des Hasler might have to go door-to-door around Sydney giving away tickets to make sure his side get a home crowd advantage. Lockyer Schmockyer...I think the Broncos can win anyway. To do so they need to win with their defence. If that holds, and the Broncos find a way to score 16 points or more, then we all get to see yet another twist in the Darren Lockyer fairytale.     

Verdict – Broncos by 7

Result - Sea Eagles 26 defeated Broncos 14

Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – AAMI Park

Someone suggested to me the saddest thing about the Warriors going so well is that most of New Zealand hasn't noticed because the Rugby World Cup is on. In fact, the All Blacks are playing some Rugby giant (Azerbaijan, Chad?) when the Warriors take to the field on Saturday night. Strangely enough, I think it's a good thing for the Warriors to be out from under the microscope. No-one expected them to beat the Tigers last weekend and no-one expects them to win this either, except me. I went back and watched the Storm-Knights game from week one of the finals. The Storm were okay, but the Knights were terrible. That the Storm only won by 10 points has me thinking their attack is a little off-key at the moment. In their last four games they have scored just 38 points. Now I know that some of their big names didn't play some of those games, and there is always the possibility that Craig Bellamy is holding his team back, but that performance against the Knights has me thinking the Storm could be ripe for the picking. This is the team the Storm don't like to play, and I think the visitors will go into this game with plenty of confidence. The Warriors need to have a good night, but they've had plenty of those this season. Another upset? I say 'yes'.

Verdict – Warriors by 8

Result - Warriors 20 defeated Storm 12

Wally Lewis - finals week three selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

• SEA EAGLES vs Broncos
• STORM vs Warriors