Round 26 selections

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers – Friday night – WIN Stadium

Petero Civoniceva and Trent Waterhouse have played their last games for the Panthers after succumbing to injuries. The Panthers forward pack looks poorer in their absence, although it is worth noting the return of captain Luke Lewis. Rather oddly these two sides approach this game with identical records over the last seven weeks - a win in round 19, followed by five successive losses and then a win last weekend. Barring an unlikely draw the trend must end on Friday night. A Dragons win seems likely with a possible, albeit unlikely, top four finish up for grabs. Penrith have much less to play for, but they might try and give outgoing coach Steve Georgallis a win in his last game with the clipboard. Try as they might, the Panthers record in Wollongong (one win in twenty years) is ugly. The Red V for me.

Verdict – Dragons

Result - Dragons 32 defeated Panthers 12

Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – Ausgrid Stadium

It's the battle for eighth spot and the prize for the victor is a knock-out final against the Storm in Melbourne. Oh goodie! The Bunnies need to win to play finals football, and they have to beat a team they have always struggled with. The Bunnies have won just twice in Newcastle in 16 attempts and to make matters worse this is the traditional 'Old Boys' game for the Knights. I would love to be wrong, but it looks like a hometown victory for the Novacastrians.

Verdict – Knights

Result - Knights 40 defeated Rabbitohs 24

Cronulla Sharks vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – Toyota Stadium

You don't get a lot of 'tanking' in the NRL, but I've come up with a reason why the Sharks might want to lose this game. If the Sharks win on Saturday night, it's quite likely that the Dragons will end up in the top four. The Sharks hate the Dragons. Hate hate hate them. As the Tigers have racked up seven wins in a row the Sharks have racked up seven losses. They are compelling numbers and they are numbers I simply cannot ignore.

Verdict – Tigers

Result - Tigers 30 defeated Sharks 22

Gold Coast Titans vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday night – Skilled Park

Well well well. Fifteenth plays sixteenth in the last round of the year and the winner avoids the wooden spoon. The Eels continue to be competitive but have forgotten how to win, and they'll probably forget how to win this one too. Titans captain Preston Campbell plays his last game on Saturday night and he deserves to walk off the field a winner. There should be a reasonable crowd at Skilled Park and I expect the Titans will rise to the occasion.

Verdict – Titans

Result - Eels 32 defeated Titans 12

New Zealand Warriors vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – Mt Smart Stadium

Here's an amazing little statistic I've plucked from nowhere. Ten of the starting thirteen for the Cowboys have played 20 or more games this season. The three that haven't are some of their most experienced (Thurston, Tate and Tonga). It's an amazing number given the Cowboys have been plagued by injuries in recent seasons, and probably goes some of the way toward explaining their improved showing this year. A win for the Cowboys on Saturday night and they will most likely face the Tigers (5th vs 4th) in Sydney in week one of the finals. A loss and they take on the Sea Eagles (7th vs 2nd) in Sydney. Either way they can probably book their accommodation in the harbour city now. The Warriors will also face the Sea Eagles if they lose this weekend, but a win will propel them to sixth spot on the ladder and see them facing the Broncos in Brisbane. It doesn't matter how you slice or dice it, both sides are facing daunting opponents next week. Welcome to finals football fellas. If there is an upset this weekend this looks like the upset most likely. The Cowboys defeated the Warriors convincingly earlier this season and the Warriors have lost their regular dummy-half (Heremaia) to injury. The Cowboys were far from convincing last week but they might have had one eye on this game. My recent attempts at picking upsets have been costly, but this is the game where I catch up with Wally again.

Verdict – Cowboys

Result - Warriors 18 defeated Cowboys 6

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

I must have watched that last Ben Barba try against the Knights a dozen times. I still can't quite believe it. The Bulldogs have little to play for but they continue to turn up and have won three of their last four. Two of those wins were against top eight sides and their only loss was a narrow one to the Sea Eagles. Compare that form to the Raiders, who stopped turning up five weeks ago. These two sides will score 70 points on Sunday afternoon, and the Bulldogs will score 50 of those.

Verdict – Bulldogs

Result - Bulldogs 36 defeated Raiders 22

Brisbane Broncos vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium

Oh what might have been. What looked likely to be the game of the year has fizzled into something of a warm-up run before the main event. In any case the 'House Full' sign has been up at Suncorp Stadium for a few weeks now and you would expect the Broncos to put in a spirited performance for their retiring skipper. Manly have, somewhat cheekily, named Glenn Stewart in their starting side and there may be more changes to come. Coach Des Hasler has implied he won't risk players unnecessarily. No doubt there are some mind games at play but few would be predicting anything other than a Broncos victory on Sunday.

Verdict – Broncos

Result - Broncos 18 defeated Sea Eagles 10

Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm – Sunday night – Sydney Football Stadium

The Minor Premiership is sealed and soon-to-be delivered which will help the Storm pay for the $50,000 fine they copped earlier in the week. They don't have a lot to play for on Sunday night, and they also have a pretty dismal record at the Sydney Football Stadium (losing five of their last seven). Still, the purple people are a competitive lot, and I can't recall the last time they lost two games in a row (it certainly wasn't this year, and the year before that they weren't even playing for points). Cooper Cronk returns and I think the Storm will ice this game in the first half, then ice their key personnel in the second half when the result is no longer in question.

Verdict – Storm

Result - Roosters 40 defeated Storm 8

Wally Lewis - round twenty-six selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • DRAGONS vs Panthers
  • KNIGHTS vs Rabbitohs
  • Sharks vs TIGERS
  • TITANS vs Eels
  • WARRIORS vs Cowboys
  • BULLDOGS vs Raiders
  • BRONCOS vs Sea Eagles
  • Roosters vs STORM

Comments

Hunter Valley Ace's picture

hi there Mr Thinker thank you for a quite alot of ideas why who will win you helped me pick up my tally toward the end of the saeson. any way one question do you really think cowboys can win in N Z sorry but i cannot see that. but will stick with you all other games cheers H.V.A

The Thinker's picture

HVA,
If you happen to be winning your tipping comp or looking like you are in the running for some prize money you should probably stick with the Warriors. They are the safe and logical play.

The Cowboys are either running on empty or have tapered for the run into the finals. If they have anything left they need to press the go button and find form this weekend.

I'm guessing basically :-)

Thanks for all your support and comments throughout the season. I really appreciate it.

kathleen hodgson's picture

I just want to thank you for the great advice this year. you explain it in a way that a girl from Canada gets it. I am second in a tipping comp at work. thank you. I admit I don't always pick the team you pick but the way you talk about teh game clears things up in my head.

SB's picture

Thank thinker for your thoughts this year I think I feel off the pace when I couldn't find you after my Bris was shut down. But souths don't have to win by 18 to play finals they just have to win. The knights also have only beaten a team in the top 8 twice all year cowboys rd 2 and a origin depleted dragons. Even without GI think souths have this one Chrisy hasn't finish his career with the bunnies just yet.
Cheers Sb

The Thinker's picture

SB,
You are quite right about Souths. I do apologize for the error (I'd like to blame a sub-editor but in reality I would only be blaming myself).

I've removed the reference to 18 points in the post in case people don't see your comments. Thanks for picking it up and letting me know. Chris Sandow has been a delight to watch in recent weeks. I'd love to see him play for a few more weeks yet.

All the best

Kathleen,
Canada eh? It's wonderful to know I have an international audience. I'm glad you've enjoyed it. Good luck with that tipping comp.

Enjoy the weekend everyone...

Sherrell's picture

Thanks for your help....I'm winning the footy tips at work and I know NOTHING about footy!!! Everyone wanted to know where I got my tips from, (not telling) but sometimes I just make a pattern with the teams if I'm undecided. They can't believe it! HA HA,

The Thinker's picture

Well done Sherrell. I won't tell them if you won't tell them.

rain man's picture

i like football

rain man's picture

i like football

rain man's picture

i like football

Dan the Man's picture

G'day Thinker. Although I completely disagreed with you in round 25 and the results spoke for themselves. I believe you are bang on the money this week. 8 from 8

Thanks for tips this season...

hunter valley ace's picture

dan the man its good you are finally agreeing with the thinkster this weekend hope to catch up with you next season . im hoping 8 from 8 this weekend would be nice to finish with a perfect score cheers dan H V A

waywood's picture

Thanks thinker for your tips this year. although i didnt pick cowboys, i thought i was on the money for 8 from 8. I believed the titans would get up but i suppose the Hayne train is always lurking.

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