Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles – Friday night – AAMI Park

The Bulldogs gave Melbourne the game plan to beat the Sea Eagles, and Melbourne are more than capable of executing that game plan. Keep things tight and keep things slow, play for position and the points will come when they come. If Cameron Smith were an item of furniture he would be a lava lamp - slow but mesmerising, and behind that slow mesmerising beauty is one of the best minds in the game. He will understand the game plan better than anyone and he will execute that plan with authority. In 2008 these sides met in the grand final and the Sea Eagles racked up a fairly convincing 40-0 victory. Manly won 40-0 because Cameron Smith was on the sidelines in that game - his importance to the Storm cannot be under-estimated. Manly could win this on Friday night, but to do so they would need to race to an early lead and hope that throws the Storm off-course. It's possible, but I don't see this Melbourne side leaking points easily. The Bunnies threw everything, Inglis and the kitchen sink at Melbourne a few weeks ago and all they could manage was one try. Manly managed just two tries against the Bulldogs a few weeks ago and just two legitimate tries against the Cowboys last weekend. Two tries against Melbourne should be enough to keep this game close, but it won't be enough to progress to the big dance next weekend.

Verdict – Storm by 7

Result - Storm 40 defeated Sea Eagles 12

Canterbury Bulldogs vs South Sydney Rabbitohs - Saturday night – ANZ Stadium

If this was the Friday night final the Bulldogs would be good things, but Saturday night gives the bunnies a red-hot shot. Take your minds back to the first game of the finals series (Bulldogs vs Manly). It was a slow grind, easily the slowest game of the finals, and the Bulldogs (and the refs) made it so. If this game becomes a slow grind the Bulldogs will control proceedings from pillar to post and never look like losing. But I don't think we'll see that sort of game on Saturday night, because that is exactly the sort of game we'll see on Friday night. The Bulldogs beat the Sea Eagles in a grind and the Storm will attempt to do the same. Assuming they succeed Manly will whinge and moan after the game (as is their way) about how the refs let Melbourne get away with murder in the ruck. And because of that the referees on Saturday night will pay this area of the game close attention. The Rabbitohs will have a slight edge with the crowd numbers as well and they'll be sure to remind the referees at every opportunity. The Bulldogs are the second most penalised team in the NRL, and if the refs take their whistles out of their pockets the Rabbitohs will gain plenty of metres and possession on the back of penalties. A faster game brings the Rabbitohs into calculations. Those big Bulldogs forwards will tire and Issac Luke will give them grief all night, and he'll have some handy support players in Inglis, Merritt and Sutton backing him up. The Rabbitohs will need to find some points somewhere, and I think they'll do so in three ways:

• straight through the middle thanks to Issac Luke and co. as described above
• their left edge in attack which has the firepower and skill (Taylor, Burgess, Inglis and Merritt) to expose the Bulldogs right edge defence (Inu, Jackson and Reynolds)
• targeting Ben Barba with up and under bombs - if Barba has an achilles heel then this would be it

That their goal-kicker (Reynolds) is the best in the business doesn't hurt either, ensuring most four-pointers become six. The Rabbitohs will need to score some points because the Bulldogs have some firepower of their own. Their points will come from two primary sources:

• Josh Morris and Ben Barba isolating Dave Taylor - their pace and evasiveness could have Taylor clutching at thin air. Taylor will need some help in defence on that right edge and he'll need plenty of it.
• Everytime the Rabbitohs take their foot off the pedal - the bunnies are prone to lapses and if they drop in and out of this game the Bulldogs will pounce every single time.

So to my eye this looks like a high-scoring game of footy. A lot of ducks have to line up for The Thinker to get the sort of game he has predicted above, but if it happens the Rabbitohs are sensational value. At $2.75 or thereabouts I'm happy to punt on the bunnies - after about twenty minutes I should know if I've done my money cold.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4

Result - Bulldogs 32 defeated Rabbitohs 8

Wally Lewis - finals week three selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published as soon as possible (usually on Thursday night or early Friday morning).

• Storm vs SEA EAGLES
• BULLDOGS vs Rabbitohs