Round seven selections

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights – Friday night – WIN Jubilee Oval

In the last six clashes between these sides the biggest margin has been eight points, and in their last meeting the game went to golden point before a Jamie Soward field goal got the Dragons home in the first game of the 2012 season. Both sides have been in and out of form since then, and it's safe to assume that the side that brings their best on Friday night will take the points. The Dragons are a pronounced favourite but I like the visitors. These sides have a rather peculiar history of losing at home and winning away when they meet, and I think that trend can continue. Winning without Gidley won't be easy, but I'm hoping Wayne Bennett has been showing Jarrod Mullen plenty of videos. The Dragons have been a little fragile in defence on their right edge, and I expect Mullen to focus much of his attack off the boot and through the hands in just that spot. Darius Boyd has been quiet this season - perhaps a game against his last club might bring him out of his early season slumber. And improving youngster Danny Buderus racks up his 200th NRL game on Friday night, which is just another reason why the Knights might give us some of their best this weekend. Consider the flying Scotsman (James McManus) as your first try scorer if such things interest you.

Verdict – Knights

Result - Dragons 12 cured insomnia across the eastern seaboard as they defeated the Knights 4

Brisbane Broncos vs Canberra Raiders – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

BREAKING NEWS: Peter Wallace has been ruled out for the Broncos. My selection stands.

If I have a bogey team this season (and if I'm being brutally honest I probably have a few) then that team would be the Raiders. I tipped them correctly way back in round one when they lost to the Storm, but everyone got that game right, and I've gotten them wrong every week since. So Raiders fans will be pleased to see me tipping the Broncos this weekend. You know what you are going to get with the Broncos - one of only two consistent teams in the competition at the moment. Theoretically the Raiders could have a night out and pull off an upset, and they do have a pretty good record against the Broncos. But one should always tip a consistently good side over an inconsistent one, and the Raiders loss-win, loss-win, loss-win pattern shows they are on track for another loss.

Verdict – Broncos

Result - Broncos 30 defeated Raiders 6

Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Saturday night – AAMI Park

Forgive me for pointing out the obvious, but the Storm are the other consistent side in the competition - by almost all measures they are the competition benchmark. Their record against the Bulldogs is, as one would expect, just as consistent. The Dogs did notch up a win over the purple machine in 2010, but that game was played in Adelaide and Melbourne weren't playing for points. And you need to go back to the early rounds of 2005 to find the last time the Dogs beat the Storm in Melbourne. Let's be honest for a moment, the Storm pick themselves each and every week, at least until State of Origin time comes around again, and they should be too good again. In any case, a chance to see the two most dynamic fullbacks in the game makes this an event worthy of your eyeballs. Billy Slater, like the Storm, is the competition benchmark, but Ben Barba is running a gallant second. The game of the round by my reckoning. 

Verdict – Storm

Result - Storm 12 defeated Bulldogs 6

Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – TIO Stadium (Darwin)

The bad news for the Cowboys is that they were soundly beaten by the Storm last weekend. The good news is that most teams bounce back from a loss to the Storm with a win the following weekend. The only team that couldn't do that was the Titans, and the Cowboys are a lot better than the Titans. The Roosters are better than the Titans, but I do scratch my head when I see them riding high on the NRL ladder. I don't know how they are finding these wins, and I'm not sure if they know either. Who knows what they might achieve if they start playing well. The Roosters have taken this game to Darwin, making this their third interstate road trip in four weeks. The Cowboys are still without Matt Scott which always worries me but they should get conditions to suit up north.

Verdict – Cowboys

Result - Cowboys 50 defeated Roosters 12

Manly Sea Eagles vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday night – Brookvale Oval

I keep thinking the Titans are getting close to a win, but they just don't have it in them at the moment. They've unearthed another halves partner for Scott Prince in Aidan Sezer, and I must admit that I've never heard of him. Welcome to first grade Aidan - taking on Manly at Brookvale on a cold night in Sydney is quite a baptism of fire. Manly pick themselves, and there's nothing I can say here that will tempt you otherwise.

Verdict – Sea Eagles

Result - Titans 26 defeated Sea Eagles 14

New Zealand Warriors vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Sunday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

Warriors coach Brian McClennan put his hand up after last weekend and took full responsibility for his sides poor performances this season. I would have thought the men on the park should take some of the blame. Their attack is lacking any spark right now but it's their defense that is most concerning. They are still without Michael Luck and Jacob Lillyman, and without them someone in that Warriors engine room has to put their hand up and volunteer for the tough stuff. Somewhat surprisingly the Warriors are favoured to win. They did trounce the Rabbitohs late last year but the 2012 Warriors are a shadow of the side that went all the way to the grand final in 2011. The Bunnies are without Asotasi and Burgess but I still think there is enough muscle in their pack to get the job done.

Verdict – Rabbitohs

Result - Warriors 44 defeated Rabbitohs 22

Cronulla Sharks vs Parramatta Eels – Sunday afternoon – Toyota Stadium

Way back at the start of the season I suggested the Sharks were a top four hope this year, and even I thought I was a little bit mad. But after four wins on the trot there they are in the top four. They absolutely deserve to be there. The Sharks have played better sides than the Eels, and the most points they have conceded all year is just 18. On four occasions this season the Eels have managed just one try in 80 minutes of football. Last weekend the Sharks kept the Dragons scoreless, and if the Sharks defensive structures can keep out the Dragons they shouldn't have too much trouble accounting for the Eels.

Verdict – Sharks

Result - Sharks 24 defeated Eels 18

Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – Centrebet Stadium

It's crunch time. If the Tigers don't win on Sunday their entire 2012 campaign is beyond salvaging. Ray Cashmere makes his debut for the Tigers, and I do hope the audio guy at Centrebet Stadium has the decency to play a little bit of Led Zeppelin when he comes off the bench for the first time. I have lost almost all faith in the Tigers this season, but I don't have that much faith in their opponent either. My selection is based on who would win if both sides give their best. At their best the Tigers are a vastly superior outfit, but we haven't seen anything close to their best all year. I don't think I can watch - tell me when it's over.

Verdict – Tigers

Result - Tigers 30 defeated Panthers 30

Wally Lewis - round seven selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published as soon as possible (usually on Thursday night or early Friday morning).

  • DRAGONS vs Knights
  • BRONCOS vs Raiders
  • STORM vs Bulldogs
  • Roosters vs COWBOYS
  • SEA EAGLES vs Titans
  • WARRIORS vs Rabbitohs
  • SHARKS vs Eels
  • Panthers vs TIGERS

Comments

Craig's picture

Im with you this week mate, except with the Dragons. Wallace's omission bothers me a little, but not enough to change my tip. NQ in Darwin should be solid, Man look far too good for GCT.

Souths are great value, i got on @ 2.45, not sure what the bookies are thinking. Sharks too good and Tigers are due, however that game im a bit shaky on, Wests beg to be tipped here though. This weekend looks almost too easy and that makes me nervous lol, its ripe for an upset and im not confident of where.

Stg, Bri, Mel, NQ, Man, Sth, Cro, Wst.

oh..an i got 8/9 in the other code last week as well lol, missed B lions as im a tragic Qlder. never watched a full afl game in my life but do ok with the tipping lol.

The Thinker's picture

Great stuff Craig.

If you can keep it up I might have to find a spot for you in the Season Stats section alongside Wally and I.

Good luck this weekend...and go the Bunnies!!!

a's picture

i argee with you apart form dragons

Craig's picture

That would be awesome mate!

Dubai Dan's picture

I'm with Wally and this week we are going 8 from 8...

Dubai Dan's picture

Wally I, as you must, feel robbed. The Storm and the Broncs had it in the bag, but the 3rd most likely result to be flipped on its head is just not cricket. I needed the bonus 2 from the clean sweep to reclaim 1st and I just don’t know if 7 will cut it. Well done and continue your charge ahead. The Thinker is playing a bit of Raiders footy. Every now and then he pulls something out of the bag but not this week.

Craig's picture

Well done Wally, great tipping mate 7/8 2 weeks in a row

Very disappointed with Manly, same team playing at the same ground 5 days previous were near perfect, if they'd been wearing different colours you'd be forgiven for thinking they weren't the same team.

6/8 for me, not great, but it'll have to do, i did beat The Thinker though : )

The Thinker's picture

Dubai and Craig,
You could set your watch to Wally and his tips - he's immortal for a reason.
I would struggle to tip a glass of water at the moment. Might pay to stick with the champ for a while.

Everyone,
Note the late start to round eight - what with the all-important ANZAC Test and the why-do-they-do-this-again City/Country match. Selections should be out on Tuesday morning next week before the ANZAC Day games.

Craig's picture

What do you think about the Test and City/Country?

Looking at the teams ill go with Australia and Country.

The Thinker's picture

Craig,
I always pick Australia over New Zealand in the one-off test matches. The Kiwis tend to take a while to gel, meanwhile Smith, Cronk and Slater have had plenty of practice together. For those at the ground I really hope it's a tough, close game, but the realist in me thinks the Kangaroos will win by about 20.

And I'll take Country in the City-Country match - they'll be keen to show Danny Buderus that it still means something.

All the best

Jimmysnz's picture

Any idea on the margin for City-Country thinker?

a's picture

I think city will win by 20

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