Round six selections

Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

Two weeks ago this clash was looking as dog-ordinary as the Queensland Derby in the AFL, but on the back of impressive victories by both sides last week we suddenly have a game on our hands. Momentum may not be everything but its a very important thing and neither side would want to back up a solid win with a disappointing loss. The Broncos forwards back up from a tough battle with the second biggest pack in the NRL to take on the biggest pack in the NRL. The Broncos pack is a solid unit and Sam Thaiday returns, but whether they can match it with the twin towers of Matt Scott and James Tamou is the vital question here. I'm doubting it, and the last thing the Broncos need is Jonathan Thurston with room to move. The Broncos beat the Cowboys more than they beat any other team, but in recent years the tide has turned. Cracking game. Points aplenty. Cowboys just.  

Verdict – Cowboys

Result - Broncos 12 defeated Cowboys 10

Sydney Roosters vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday night – Allianz Stadium

I pulled out some footage of the 2012 Bulldogs and had a decent look at it. Then I had another look at their performance against Manly last weekend. It's the same team, but without the X-factor, and it's clear to me they need Sam Kasiano back on the paddock and they need him now. Big Sam is a prop forward, and he's bigger than the North Korean army, but big Sam is a playmaker. In his absence the Bulldogs are more predictable in attack and they're getting shut down by their opponents as a result. The Roosters have kept their opponents scoreless in 200 of their last 240 minutes of football. They might have lost last week but recent efforts tell me they can do enough to keep their noses in front on Friday night. Sonny Bill Williams fronts up to the team he scurried away from six years ago. I'm sure Des Hasler and the Bulldogs will say he won't be targeted, but someone is likely to have a crack at him at some point (as if Michael Ennis can keep his yapper shut for 80 minutes). Here's how I see things playing out - Ennis says something. Says something else. Says another thing. Gets in someone's face. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves will get jack of it and fisticuffs will follow. Nobody gets hurt, Sonny Bill has a blinder and the chooks get the points.

Verdict – Roosters

Result - Roosters 38 defeated Bulldogs 0

Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – Hunter Stadium

Shortly before the kick-off to this game Black Caviar will be going around at Randwick against the best opposition she's had to face in quite some time. If you haven't seen her strutting her stuff you should check her out. She's pretty good. This is not so good, and it's not pretty either. The Knights, like Black Caviar, should win this with their ears pricked. In their three games at home this season they've racked up 104 points. The Panthers have played two games away from home in 2013, and conceded 58. Generally speaking teams don't pile on big scores at night, but if the Knights don't rack up more than 30 points I'll be very surprised. It's hardly the game of the round, but this is my good thing of the round. And go Black Caviar!

Verdict – Knights

Result - Knights 8 defeated Panthers 6

Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – Canberra Stadium

I went back as far as 2005 and I couldn't find a Warriors victory in Canberra. That's pretty compelling evidence that the Auckland-Canberra journey isn't a trip that the Warriors enjoy. This will be their third trip to Australia this season, and in their previous two trips they were flogged by the Eels and the Sharks. This time they face a team who are undefeated at home in 2013. Both sides are on the improve, but the Raiders pick themselves.

Verdict – Raiders

Result - Raiders 20 defeated Warriors 16

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – ANZ Stadium

Five rounds down, and the two undefeated sides in the competition face off in what should be the match of the year thus far. The Storm don't start as outsiders very often, but they do this weekend against a side that has beaten them just once in their last ten meetings. That one win was in 2010, the year Melbourne weren't playing for points following the salary cap scandal. From memory that game was played in Perth and was played during the State of Origin period of the season. So Melbourne could be excused for underperforming on that occasion, and they still only lost by two points. Given all that I'm not sure why the Bunnies are favourites on Saturday night but I'm going to tip them anyway. Melbourne are backing up from a tough Monday night fixture and they have to travel. Take the unders if you're keen on a punt, because this will almost certainly be one of those 16-14 scorelines. In recent years those are the sort of games the Bunnies would usually lose, but not these Bunnies. Worth noting that Billy Slater is hobbling around in a moonboot this week. If he gets on the plane I expect him to play.

Verdict – Rabbitohs

Result - Storm 17 defeated Rabbitohs 10

Manly Sea Eagles vs Cronulla Sharks – Sunday afternoon – Brookvale Oval

Paul Gallen looked like a broken man during the press conference last week following their loss to the Eels. Perhaps he was just worried about his nudie run, but it looked to be more than that. It appears that the big black cloud lurking over the Shire has descended on the footy team. Under those circumstances, Brookvale Oval on a Sunday afternoon against an in-form Manly is close to the last place you would want to be. Cronulla get a 12.5 point start in the handicap betting with the bookies - Manly will have that covered by half-time.

Verdict – Sea Eagles 40 to defeat Sharks 0

Result - Sea Eagles 25 defeated Sharks 18

Wests Tigers vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Sunday afternoon – Sydney Cricket Ground

The Dragons probably deserve their favourites tag for this clash, given their improved performances in recent weeks. I don't feel good about tipping them, because I'm not completely convinced just yet, but the injury to Benji Marshall has swung me. I expect Moltzen to join Anasta in the halves and James Tedesco to move to fullback for the Tigers. I quite like that combination, and I expect Robbie Farah to step up in the absence of Anasta, but my niggling doubt is the goal-kicking. This is likely to be a tight game and Jamie Soward will rack up more two pointers than Braith Anasta every day of the week - and he's not shy about potting a field goal either. If goal-kicking is the difference on the day (and it often is) then the Dragons will prevail.

Verdict – Dragons

Result - Dragons 13 defeated Tigers 12

Gold Coast Titans vs Parramatta Eels – Sunday night – Skilled Park

I was rather pleased to see the Eels prevail last round but they aren't going to rack up back-to-back wins too often this season. The Titans have stood down Dave Taylor for being a bit of a goofball but they welcome back Mark Minichiello, and Albert Kelly has somehow resurrected himself after it looked like he'd be missing for much of the season.  Too strong at home.

Verdict – Titans

Result - Titans 28 defeated Eels 22

Wally Lewis - round six selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • BRONCOS vs Cowboys
  • Roosters vs BULLDOGS
  • KNIGHTS vs Panthers
  • RAIDERS vs Warriors
  • RABBITOHS vs Storm
  • SEA EAGLES vs Sharks
  • Tigers vs DRAGONS
  • TITANS vs Eels

Comments

Britney 's picture

There are 3 games I feel really uneasy about, Roosters vs Bulldogs, Tigers vs Dragons and the Titans vs Eels. On all these games I tipped the opposite, now Im not too sure.

Shady Records's picture

I believe the thinker is heading for a full round, i like these tips.. only one i think could be wrong is tigers game..however this game is not played at Leichhardt so i'll lean towards dragons also. I still have a joker round (double points) to play in my comp so i am waiting for the perfect round.. and wait no longer i shall. Cheers!

Bali John's picture

l have a funny feelling there could be a couple of golden points this weekend?? Bunnies/storm, titans/eels.

Britney's picture

agree

Johnny Ray's picture

You've got to give it to The Thinker this week ! There's nothing here that he's says you would argue with ! The Storm may beat The Rabbits and maybe The Warriors can upset Raiders but this week I'm going with everything he says ! Thanks again Thinker for all your tips ! ;-D

Guru Craig's picture

BRI - Brisbane for the win in a tough game. I think Griffin has been having nightmares..... Wayne.. Coming...back.. Whether or not those rumours are true, Hook has inspired some decent football from the Bronco's boys and the pressure from the fans/media hasn't eased with last week’s win just yet. Bris 1-12

SYD - SBW vs the Bulldogs is the headline i read yesterday, ill give the bloke some credit, he has been playing well and this encounter should go the way of the Latte with the men from Bondi. Ill be looking to see how BB is playing, the genius genes should kick in soon..i hope.

NEW - The Knights will cover the pennies unless that rough bus Wayne was on about makes an appearance. Look for Darius Boyd to have Stellar post game interview..lol

CAN- as the Thinker said, stats are stats. The NZW don't travel well and Canberra is one of their least favourite destinations. lock it in.

MEL - Storm..if Slater plays. i'm tipping Melbourne but i will be watching this in pregame warm up to see how Billy is moving. Souths can possibly win the forward battle but i just cant go past Mel. Tough game to pick.

MAN - Manly will be too good in the ASADA game of the round...

STG - With Benji out The Dragons have a must win game here. The media have been suggesting Soward is on the way out of the club and he will want to prove his worth, same with Fien. Price is gone id say, not much he can do short of making the top 8 or winning the lot and that aint happening.

PAR - Its only round 6 and there's trouble in PARAdise, Ricky is doing it tough but the Eels face the Titans with injuries all over the place and off the back of their emotional (and very financial..well for me anyways) win last week, im predicting they can go 2 in a row.

Derek's picture

THis has to be one of the hardest round so far... yes there are 2 easy games but the others are all a bunch of one half a dozen of the other with all the playmakers that are out this week. I would hold onto your double points for later. just saying

newbie from perth's picture

I'm with most of The Thinker's and the Guru's tips but can't work out why they've both gone for STG. Maybe because I'm from Perth and don't get to hear all that much about the Great Game over here or maybe because I'm a "newbie". Hmm, methinks I should defer to local knowledge but what the heck. Tigers to beat my "hoodoo" team this week.

Agree with TT on not understanding how the Bunnies are favs. Am I missing something here? I've gone the Storm anyways. Other than these 2 games, I'm with TT. As usual enjoyed the commentary from both TT and the Guru. Gives me lots to think about. Thanks for that.

P.S. Had a little "crow" last week on how I had more correct tips than The Great One and yes, it did come back and bite me! Only managed 4 last week so maybe there's a lesson there for me eh? Humility newbie, humility. Thanks fellas.

Guru Craig's picture

Hi Newbie,

Speaking for myself i have tipped against the Tigers as i feel the loss of Benji Marshal will have a significant impact on the Tigers ability to score points, Marshall is the #1 goal kicker and plays a big part in most points scored by the team.

The Dragons have improved a fair amount of late with a couple of wins and players/coach under pressure, i think that stuff gives them an edge in this game. I could be wrong though...

The Thinker's picture

Greetings Newbie,

Pretty much what Craig has to say covers it. I should mention that it looks like the Tigers will name Curtis Sironen in the halves alongside Anasta (leaving Moltzen at fullback and Tedesco on the wing).

$2.50 is a generous price for the Tigers but I think the Dragons can win a tight one. The SCG can be a tricky venue for playmakers - especially for their kicking game, and Soward appears to have the edge in that department.

Bali John,
Good mention regarding golden point - can't believe we haven't had one this season yet.

Have a great weekend everyone.

a's picture

My tips are

Broncos Anyones game

Roosters They should beat the Bulldogs

Knights Panthers are hopeless

Warriors are at good odds

Rabbitohs Billy Slater is in doubt for the Storm

Dragons I think

Eels I am with Guru Craig on this one

You know someone told me that Wally tip the Cowboys

The Thinker's picture

Great to see The Guru on track for a perfect round. Nice tipping sir.

Guru Craig's picture

Thanks Thinker, almost had it Para 22-8 and lost...they mustn't have got the script..

ROSIE's picture

thanks for the great tips your good average stops me being laughed at in our local fotty tipping comp.

Jrock's picture

I was seven fa this weekend. Two guys at work got 8... Still can't work out what there method is. They both know absolutly nothing about rugby and yet they lead our comp...? Really keen to bust there balls TT.

The latest in NRL news