North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – 1300SMILES Stadium
These teams may not be firing on all cylinders, but they know how to put on a show when they come together. The Broncos brains trust have been madly scribbling on the whiteboard and have come up with a few changes. Corey Norman is free to ponder his future at Parramatta. Peter Wallace moves to the bench. Ben Hunt joins Scott Prince in the halves. Sam Thaiday shifts to the second row to fill the vacant spot left by Alex Glenn who plugs a hole out in the centres. That's a whole lotta changes, but I suppose they had to do a whole lotta something because the status quo has failed to fire. Are these changes the solution? Probably not, but at least it puts the team on notice that they need to perform. That said, I don't think the missing ingredient with the Broncos is effort - the missing ingredient is Darren Lockyer. The closest thing this game has to Darren Lockyer is Jonathan Thurston. He doesn't have quite as much sleep and blood as he would like following an early morning wake-up call from the ASADA drug testers, but a catatonic Thurston would still have enough armoury in his bag of tricks to get the home side over the line. It's thirteenth playing twelfth, but this could end up being the game of the round. Back Winterstein as your first try scorer, and take the Cowboys by 1-6 points.
Verdict – Cowboys
Result - Broncos 18 defeated Cowboys 16
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Parramatta Eels – Friday night – ANZ Stadium
The mighty Eels are $8.50 to win this game. I know the AFL have two or three teams every week at prices like that but I'm pretty sure $8.50 is the longest price so far this season. I'm not tempted. Outside of club captain Tim Mannah I don't think I could find a spot for another player in the Eels seventeen that would earn a spot in the Bulldogs seventeen. I doubt that Ricky Stuart wanted to name the side he's named either, but he doesn't have much of a choice. The Dogs are starting to warm up and the Eels can't do a thing about it.
Verdict – Bulldogs by 40
Result - Bulldogs 40 defeated Eels 12
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday night – WIN Stadium
The Dragons were very good (by Dragons standards) as they overcame the Rabbitohs in extra time on Monday night, and you would expect Josh Dugan to pull out one of those amazing games he can pull out from time to time. That said, the form goes out the window when these sides meet, because the last time the Dragons beat the Raiders was when Mal Meninga was making his debut as a State of Origin coach. I can't ignore the hoodoo. The Dragons couldn't beat the Raiders when they were the best side in the NRL, so it stands to reason they won't beat them now. The injury to Dragons centre Matt Cooper doesn't help either.
Verdict – Raiders
Result - Raiders 22 defeated Dragons 18
Gold Coast Titans vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Saturday night – Skilled Park
Well I predicted a rocket for the Rabbitohs at half time on Monday night - I guess it came at full-time after they found a way to lose to the Dragons. This can only be bad news for the Titans, a team that need to break out of a season-defining slump very quickly or another finals campaign is going to pass them by. In their last three outings they've conceded a total of 122 points, and they aren't the sort of numbers you want to be seeing going into a game against the side that have scored more points this season than any other. The Bunnies haven't lost two games in a row this season, and thus far have followed their losses with wins over teams in the top eight. The Titans will give it their all, but anything other than a solid victory for the visitors would be a surprise. Back the Bunnies to score a total of 31-40 points.
Verdict – Rabbitohs
Result - Rabbitohs 32 defeated Titans 4
New Zealand Warriors vs Melbourne Storm – Sunday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium
I'd talked myself into the Warriors all week. They're in tremendous form and much of their best work is saved for these Sunday afternoon fixtures at Mt Smart. But it's not quite enough, and I've talked myself out of them again. The Storm are bringing a line-up that is near enough to full-strength. They'll be keen to make a post-Origin statement that this team is still a contender in 2013. Three losses from the last four for the Storm looks pretty ordinary, but the win in the middle of that run was the last time they were close to full-strength - on that night they beat the Broncos by 32-0 (and the Broncos were pretty good). There's very little in this, but watch for the pin-point kicking of Cooper Cronk - I expect him target the promising but inexperienced Warriors winger Ngani Laumape. With that in mind, back Justin O'Neill to score a try, and that might be the difference on the day. Storm by 4.
Verdict – Storm
Result - Warriors 30 defeated Storm 22
Cronulla Sharks vs Penrith Panthers – Sunday afternoon – Remondis Stadium
The Sharks couldn't score a point last round but they did come up against a red hot team. It's worth remembering that the Sharks fell away late in season 2012 (funnily enough...much like the Essendon Bombers), and it's possible we are about to see a repeat of the same thing this season. And speaking of Essendon and the Sharks, ASADA have signalled to the boys from Cronulla and asked them to return to the interview table. How Cronulla will respond on the field (and at the interview table) is anyone's guess, but galvanised is always a possibility, particularly when playing at home in front of the eternally faithful. Penrith scored a few points last round against the Knights but they probably shouldn't have scored any, so one has to start wondering about them as well. Their only wins away from home this season have been against lesser teams than the Sharks. I'll take a punt on the home side, and a punt on former Panther Michael 'Flash' Gordon to grab a try or two.
Verdict – Sharks
Result - Sharks 38 defeated Panthers 10
Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters – Sunday afternoon – Hunter Stadium
Here's the list of the winners from the last ten clashes between these two sides - Knights, Roosters, Knights, Roosters, Knights, Roosters, Knights, Roosters, Knights, Roosters. That's a rather compelling pattern, and it means the Knights are due for a win, but what is even more compelling is the performance of the Roosters last weekend. Granted their opponent was a little understrength, but four of the Roosters were backing up from losing the Origin series (including both halves). They were simply unstoppable last weekend, and they did it without Sonny Bill. Sonny Bill is back and joins a pack of forwards that are proving very hard to stop. The Knights pack has been pretty good in recent weeks also, but the suspension to Kade Snowden is yet another reason to stick with the Chickens. Compulsory viewing for any footy fan, and I'll take the Roosters by less than many might think.
Verdict – Roosters
Result - Roosters 28 defeated Knights 12
Wests Tigers vs Manly Sea Eagles – Monday night – Campbelltown Stadium
Manly have scored 122 points in their last three games and they are a fit and firing footy side. Since round three the only sides to beat them have been the Rabbitohs, Roosters, Warriors and Bulldogs, and I think those results are a fair indicator of where Manly are at. Too strong for the lessor sides and not quite good enough for the big boppers in this competition. We all know which group the Tigers belong to. That said, it should be noted that this will be the 200th NRL game for Tigers captain Robbie Farah, and I'm sure the stripey cats would love nothing more than to beat those dislikeable Sea Eagles to celebrate. Expect a contest, and expect the Sea Eagles to hang on by 1-12 points.
Verdict – Sea Eagles
Result - Sea Eagles 36 defeated Tigers 18
Wally Lewis - round twenty selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- COWBOYS vs Broncos
- BULLDOGS vs Eels
- Dragons vs RAIDERS
- Titans vs RABBITOHS
- Warriors vs STORM
- SHARKS vs Panthers
- Knights vs ROOSTERS
- Tigers vs SEA EAGLES
Comments
Submitted by Guru Craig on
We're back to the full complement of eight games for the rest of the season and the heat has been turned up on The Guru, a few poor rounds and i've gone from leading the tipping to running third..or last if you like. I'll need a few hail Marys to close the gap, here we go.
Brisbane - The Boss has written this game up perfectly so ill just add a few of the Guru's ramblings. The Bronco's can win this game, a few weeks ago i said that Canberra were a better side than the Cowboys and i meant it, this game will hopefully come down to who is the better side and who wants to win more. Based on that fact The Guru feels Brisbane have the better form, losing some tough games purely on the bounce or whistle. Townsville haven't shown the intensity and commitment to match some of Brisbane's recent games, i hope that will be the difference. Its all about attitude.
Bulldogs - A game that looks to be over already, just like Para's season, the full time siren cant come soon enough for Ricky's side. In his place The Guru cant say i would feel differently, its not your fault Rick. I would however mix things up a bit, with nothing to lose The G would bring up some U20s in the key positions, give a lifeline to some ageing but tough and knowledgeable blokes and that hopefully some of their honor and fortitude will rub off on the youngins. Steve Price types, Shane Webcke, Tallis, sorts of blokes that have a personal code with which they conduct themselves on and off of the field. Now to the layman..that means get a few Queenslanders and watch the rot magically disappear. Dogs by a ton or 2.
St George - Cost me a few pennies and surprised many, the Monday break-even game for many a punter was an upset to end upsets, at Half time odds were something like 1.06 for the Bunnies to 7.50 for St Merge, i remember telling the Mrs, thats insane, its one try! then backing that up with, well i guess they'll get done by 30 in the second and promptly went for a nice warm bath....45 mins later and the G was down a 'C' note. Dragons to make a run for the finals, they were messy beating Souths, and Pricey...mate don't get too excited yet, you were very lucky..build on last week's effort, remove the errors and you will win this game.
Souths - To continue the above, Souths were pretty bad on Monday night, they looked tired and out of sync after the week off. Facing the Titans on the Gold Coast i hope Maguire has the boys disciplined and ready to right last weeks performance. I don't see the Bunnies losing two in a row and ill make this my tip of the round.
Melbourne - I imagine plenty of people are a bit concerned with this game, don't worry, its the business end of the season and The Storm are like a giant Wall street corporation, all business. The big three will fire for the rest of the year and Melbourne will be hard to beat from here on in, plus everyone says Cam Smith looks like an Accountant.
Sharks - Cronulla will be dirty after last week's effort, Coach Flanagan has organised a detox session for the boys at a lovely day Spa, Paul Gallens fav by all accounts. The theory is the players were just getting into the spirit of their new sponsor, the waste management firm a tad too much? whatever the reasons i don't think they will play as smelly two weeks in a row. The Panthers will have the Guru's cheers but i think the money is with the Sharkies.
Knights - As the Boss says the Novocastrians are due. Sunday afternoon at Hunter stadium should be worth a few points and Wayne will use his warriors preferred time and place to play as motivation. The Guru is not convinced that Newcastle are good enough to beat the Chooks, i will be looking for a bit of good fortune to fall their way and suley the Roosters are due a less than stellar game? no one wins forever.
Manly - It's a bit sad to see Benji leave the NRL, while i'm not a fan of Marshall per se, i believe his exit will benefit the Tigers and strengthen Potters relationship with his players. Benji got a little too big for his Asics a few years ago and he hasn't been able to live up to the media's hype. The Tigers other star player Farah, is a hard worker but seems to be the guy who always misses out, a career complaining to refs is what lies ahead Robbie if you stay with the Tigers. Manly should win by a try or 4.
Submitted by Rick on
Really good comments from you both for this round I appreciate reading them each week.Thank you.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Awesome ! Thanks Thinker and here are my tips for round ! Congrats goes out to A for having perfect round last week, not just for getting perfect round but also for tipping Dragons to beat Rabbitohs in 'Baby Broncos' sized upset of the century !
Cowboys : This was played at Suncorp I would go with Broncos but with Cowboys playing with home ground advantage I'm going with Cowboys to win this game in close one on one contest between the two captains !
Bulldogs : Did you hear that some of Paramatta board members were seen in King's Cross last night ? Yeah they were looking for a decent hooker and somebody who's able to hold onto ball ! Bulldogs 13 +
Raiders : Again I would of gone with home ground advantage and picked The Dragons but then it wasn't that Dragons were any good last Monday it was that Rabbits were so bad ! Raiders in another tight one.
Titans : Things get worse for bunnies as they start to fall off without my man G.I, as I think without him there and alot of other Rabbitoh players playing in different positions that coupled with travel factor and that they're playing Titans in home ground on gold coast, I can feel that there is another upset about to happen here.
Warriors - Warriors are on another roll they I can't see them ending till end of this season. They will win this against Storm but only just, with possible last try in final minutes of game that will get them home with points.
Sharks - They will win here but it won't be easy as I suspect Panthers will want to make game of this match.
Knights - Knights to continue to roll on as competition underdogs beating Roosters in another close contest.
Sea Eagles - Sea Eagles will beat Tigers here but being played at one of Tigers home grounds it's anbody guess what margin is going to be ! I'm picking Sea Eagles 13 + !
Gone The Warriors ;-D
Submitted by The Thinker on
Great stuff as always from The Guru and Johnny Ray.
And thanks for the kind words Rick. Much appreciated.
I should mention I'm about to head off on a family vacation to some isolated island in the middle of the South Pacific. My next update will be from there so I'm hoping the internet facilities are up to scratch.
All the best and have a great weekend.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
G'day Thinker, Guru et al,
No rambling on this week, just my tips:
Cowboys - like 'em at home. Broncos inconsistent/unlucky
Doggies - one would think a no-brainer
Raiders - Mr T's last 2 sentences says it all in my book
Bunnies - they'll be hurting from last week I'd imagine
Storm - should get over shouldn't they?
Sharks - they'll be hurting from last week as well
Manly - just too good I would think
and finally my beloved Chooks. Another "lots of points to nil" result last week (apologies to any Sharks people out there). The Universe just keeps smiling at me. Mind you, you have to give the Knights due respect as they're quite a nifty outfit and wouldn't be sitting 5th if they hadn't earned it so you never know eh?
Good luck to you all this week and have a great holiday Mr T. I'll be in Thailand myself Rounds 22, 23 and half of 24. Hope to find a sports bar somewhere that's showing some games. Let us know how your holiday's coming along so I can read all about it when I get back. Cheers.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Hi All
I'm going with the flow this week. Cowboys, Dogs, Raiders, Rabbits, Storm, Sharks, Chooks and Manly.
Enjoy that holiday Thinker. Refresh those brain cells for the home run just 6 rounds to go!
Submitted by Guru Craig on
<***The Guru TV***>
( you'll have to use your imagination...until the boss gets his own TV show anyway )
This is where the Guru lets rip and gives his opinion on clubs, the state of the game..and well, anything else worth ranting about.
First up, Brisbane, Griffin isn't the right man for the club at present. Mal is, Meninga brings Cam Smith and together they put the trophy back where it rightly belongs, the Cabinet at Red Hill. The master plan Mr White is to sign Mal and his trusty off-sider Hagan, get Locky back on-side with the club and while you're at it bring back the club legends who created what the Bronco's stand for and integrate them into the professional lives of the current players.
You need a playmaker a hardman and a young aggressive forward..Ben Teo and Dane Gagai would be handy about now hey...
The great man Lockyer is saying Karmichael Hunt and the Guru won't argue, drive a truck of money to Israel and pray its enough, see what can be done about that Bunny and that young Hodgo clone who strayed from the corral, find us a Papali and a five-eighth, play Hoffman at fullback, Gillet and Read on the same side, play Hoffman at fullback he is the NZ test FB for peat's sake! Barba needs a contract too, i don't know what your going to do with all these fullbacks, but one of them needs to be a 5/8th, I recall Wayne had earmarked Hunt for a playmaker role back in the good ol days.
The boys have the spirit they just lack leadership, experience and self belief, Mal will bring that and Cam will bring the players.
Another year like this one and watch the numbers drop...fans love winners.
Stay tuned for the next installment....Guru TV is a subsidiary of Thinkervision
Submitted by Guru Craig on
Well whaddya know...Hoffman played FB and the Bronco's won! Its not quite that simple obviously, but Hoorah for the win anyway.
The Dragons missed my mark by 4 but thankfully The Guru listens to The Thinkers wisdom, (StMerge were never going to outscore Canberra, thanks boss) and got a nice little double to back up the double from Friday night...a Double Double! ill stop now as im confusing myself!
Submitted by mark ashford on
Wow Johnny Ray rereading your Warriors/Storm comments above looks like you wrote the script for that game.
AND Guru love the Broncos Channel on GuruTV
If Broncos can hang on to Hoffman then they don't need Barba. Should never have let Teo go.
With Martin Kennedy coming next year just need to pinch McQueen for a fearsome front row.
Have to forget about Cam Smith (as much as I love him)
$1.5m per season??? at 32 it's too much.
Broncos need a big injection of mongrel to compete.
They cop plenty but never give much back.
If we sack Griffin who do you recruit?