Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys – Friday night – Allianz Stadium

These two very talented sides get the opportunity to belt the living cheese out of each other knowing full well that the reward for winning the cheese-belting battle is a battle with some well-rested Bunnies. Stiff cheddar! Jake Friend, who almost really really died, is well enough to remain vertical for 80 minutes and looks set to return. The Roosters are a more composed side in attack when he's there, and I'm quite certain his absence contributed to the Chooks lack of cohesion and poor completion rate against the Panthers. They'll be a much better team on Friday night, but they'll need to be. The conspiracy theorists up North are already out in force - what with the suspension to Tariq Sims, a 10k fine for the coach and with Waerea-Hargreaves free to play. The convincing win over the Broncos in Townsville doesn't count, as the conspiracy only comes into play against Sydney teams. Does the NRL want a Rabbitohs-Roosters preliminary final? Probably. Is there any truth in the conspiracy theory? Probably not. The concern of course, is that the Cowboys think there is...and they go into this game believing they are playing seventeen Roosters, six officials, the NRL Commission and the Channel Nine commentary team on Friday night. That backs-to-the-wall mentality can go either way, and when it goes the wrong way it can go horribly wrong. Sims is a massive out for the visitors - he adds a little bit of fear factor for the opposition. The Cowboys bring an enormous and talented pack, but Sims is a hand grenade - an enormous, talented and (according to Ms Thinker) really quite attractive hand grenade. He'll be missed, and not only by Ms Thinker. These sides met in round 10 and the Cowboys towelled them up, and you'd think coach Paul Green would know a thing or two about his opponents. With all that, the prevailing doubt over the Cowboys in Sydney remains. They've been nearly undefeatable at home in recent weeks, but they won't be at home, and they're facing a team that's lost successive games just three times in two seasons. My heart and my head are divided...the head prevails.

Verdict – Roosters by 4

Result - Roosters 31 defeated Cowboys 30

Manly Sea Eagles vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium

One should never feel sorry for the Manly Sea Eagles (its actually a mantra that must be spoken aloud at Citizenship ceremonies in this nation), but it's a bit tough to have successive home finals played away from home. They had about 20% of the crowd support last week, and they'll have much the same this week. Sucks to be them. I've spoken any number of times about the importance of the number 9 in the modern game - last weekend the Chooks lost without their regular rake, the Storm lost with Cameron Smith on one leg and the Sea Eagles lost without their first and second choice hookers.  Manly haven't been themselves for a while but they were definitely someone else last weekend against a quality opponent. Can they find themselves before Saturday night? I say no. I can't see that Sea Eagles pack matching that Bulldogs pack. I just can't see it, and my vision is a lot better than my tipping. It looks like the Panthers or the Bulldogs are going to be in the Grand Final and that has the Thinker shaking his head a little, but that's the way the Steeden bounces. Will Des Hasler feel bad about knocking his team out of the finals? Perhaps a little, but he'd be feeling a lot worse if he didn't. My video this week is the highlights from the round 17 clash between these sides. The Sea Eagles were missing Cherry-Evans, Watmough and Glenn Stewart, but the Bulldogs were missing Tolman, Hodkinson, Reynolds and Perrett. The Bulldogs won well, and those four are back. Manly get Cherry-Evans back but that's about it, and those all important number 9's aren't back either. I'm backing the Dogs by 13+

Verdict – Bulldogs by 24

Result - Bulldogs 18 defeated Sea Eagles 17 (extra time)

Wally Lewis - finals week two selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will (usually) be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

• Roosters vs COWBOYS
• SEA EAGLES vs Bulldogs