Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
As a rule, the team that makes the most metres wins the game. Metres gives you field position, and with field position comes the opportunity to score points. More opportunities equals more points. It all seems simple enough, but when it comes to the Broncos it isn't so simple. In their gripping semi-final victory over the Cowboys the Broncos conceded almost 400 more metres than their opponent, but they won. The Broncos and the Roosters met in an epic encounter in round 24. On that occasion the Broncos conceded almost 600 more metres than their opponent. The Broncos lost, but the difference between the two sides at full-time was a solitary penalty goal. How they do this is something of a mystery, but here are the two main reasons I think it's working for them:
- the best goal-line defence in the competition
- seven tackle restarts from the 20 metre line
The first point feeds the second point. That Broncos goal-line defence frustrates opponents, and at some point the ball goes dead in-goal. Seven tackle restarts is a new rule, and perhaps the oldest coach in the game has adapted quicker than the rest.
I think the final score in the Roosters/Bulldogs final flattered the chooks. Sure they ran away with it when the game was there to be won, but that only happened on the back of one of the most baffling refereeing errors you'll ever see. I think it changed the game. It may not have changed the result, but it definitely changed the game. Before that point the Roosters were almost as sloppy as the Bulldogs, and that won't be good enough. Not nearly good enough. For reasons beyond my understanding the Roosters are favourites on Friday night, but for mine the Broncos are clearly the team to beat. My only concern is driven by paranoia - the notion that the NRL would prefer a Sydney team in the Grand Final. I'll leave the conspiracy theories to others, but there is a voice in my head nagging away. The Broncos may not win, but they should win, and $2.10 is a gift I'm finding hard to ignore. I don't have to back the Broncos because I'm already on them for the Premiership, but I'm tempted. Gamble responsibly.
FUN FACT: The birthday of Wayne Bennett is celebrated every year with a national public holiday - New Years Day.
Verdict – Broncos by 4
Result - Broncos 31 defeated Roosters 12
Melbourne Storm vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – AAMI Park
The teams in the first final met in round 24, and these two sides met in round 25. On that occasion the Storm impressed with a 14-6 victory, and actually kept the Cowboys to 0 until the 79th minute. Since that win the Storm have beaten the Broncos in Brisbane and the Roosters in Sydney. That's a fair form line, and the purple machine would love nothing more than to stand up and make a statement at home while both AFL preliminary finals are in Perth. Can the Cowboys improve on that round 25 performance and turn the tables? The answer is a resounding 'yes'. Michael Morgan and James Tamou didn't play in round 25. They are both great players in their own right, but they also make two other great players (Thurston and Scott) even greater. The Cowboys stood as one against the Sharks and gave us one of the most dominant victories all year. From the very first tackle the result of that game seemed inevitable. But for a wayward night with the boot from Thurston it would have been perfect football. Quite simply if the Cowboys can replicate that performance they can't be beaten. The Storm aren't likely to give their opponents the fast-paced game they've been playing for the past fortnight, but fine weather should ensure that it's fast enough. I say the Broncos/Cowboys game was the high water mark so far this season, and that Cowboys victory over the Sharks supports my case. Those south of the border may not like an all-Queensland grand final, but what a game it would be.
FUN FACT: Storm coach Craig Bellamy and Cowboys coach Paul Green both started out as assistants to Broncos coach Wayne Bennett.
Verdict – Cowboys by 13
Result - Cowboys 32 defeated Storm 12
Wally Lewis - finals week three selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- BRONCOS vs Roosters
- Storm vs COWBOYS
Comments
Submitted by mark ashford on
Last word before bed.
Christine thanks for backing the Broncos.
Hope your MS is under some sort of control and you are ok.
Hang in there girl...you have friends!!
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Is it just me or why does Pope whenever he talks reminds me so much of that one old guy who's always at the front of queue of your local McDonalds asking if they still serve breakfast when it's two thirty in afternoon ! No grandad they don't. I mean they did but that was a long time ago, move on ! As you can see I'm currently watching CNN trying to take my mind off the fact that I should never of got Coach to switch my pick in tonights game for me. I'm such a dumbass ! Still thanks again Coach for doing that for me and congratulations Mark for making it to top of table this time. Good luck everybody with tomorrow's game ! Go Cowboys ! ;-D
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Sorry Baggy, you should be #23.
Well done Mark. Grand Final week begins.
Well done Thinker. Although smells suspiciously of a William Hill sting? Like they're taking themselves to the cleaners.
Submitted by tonibet on
English Super League
Huddersfield Giants 16-20 Leeds Rhinos (after 80 minutes)
See here for 80+ minute details
http://www.flashscore.com.au/match/UaOECEcI/#match-summary
Hence my confusion last week predicting the cowboys to beat the sharks by 6 in OT. I mean is the 80+ minute scoring system different again in New Zealand?
How confusing? Anywho ...Go Footy Chick!!
Submitted by The Thinker on
Johnny Ray
I must admit I felt more confident about my tip when Pearce was named. I understand why the Roosters rolled the dice, but they gambled...and lost. Gamble responsibly.
It's nice to be right once in a while....and on a Friday night.
And I have to mention the Broncos third try. I'm not hearing as much talk as I expected - I think it was the try of the season.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Tuivasa-Sheck's effort back to SKD was all backwards and should have been a try, given ref asked to prove otherwise. Tuivasa's other effort was also a fair try, the pass to Guerra was only off Hodges eager tackling arms and should have been another.
Don't think it would have changes the result, but sad to think that just because the Roosters got a rubbish try last week, that it would become impossible to receive anything controversial the next week. Referee's really need to get over themselves - fast.
Submitted by christine on
coach with the broncos win I should have 6 not 5 can you adjust that please before the game last night I was already on 5 if you check so I should now the broncos won be on 6 mate coach
Submitted by christine on
mark the latest mri for my ms says my ms is stable but i'm waiting to see what my nuro says because they read more into it & then I will find out what the treatment will be
Submitted by christine on
mark I won't see my nuro till the 2nd october so I will know more then but thanks for asking mate
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Sorry Christine. Thanks for picking that up. Anyone else think my calculator might be broken, let me know.
1. Mark Ashford. (6- 80) BRI 7 COW 8
2. Engineer Pete. (6- 88) BRI 3 COW 7
3. Tigerholic. (6- 90) BRI 7 COW 10
4. Chooks. (6-91) BRI 4 COW 10
5. Jazzy. (6- 94) BRI 7 COW 7
6. christine. (6- 95) BRI 4 COW 6
7. Footy Chick (5- 84) BRI 2 MEL 1
8. Tailspin (5- 85) BRI 8 COW 8
9. Islander. (5- 87) ROO 4 COW 1
10. Thinker. (5- 91) BRI 4 COW 13
11. Nik. (5- 98) ROO 1 MEL 1
12. Shanghai (5- 102) ROO 4 COW 8
13. AJ.(5- 103) ROO 2 COW 6
14. parrakeet_ . (5- 107) ROO 4 COW 6
15. HeadHi. (5- 108) BRI 6 COW 8
16. tonibet. (5- 112) BRI 12 COW 2
17. Newbie from Perth. (5- 116) ROO 9 MEL 9
17. a - (5- 116) BRI 2 COW 6
19. Rick (4- 89) BRI 6 COW 9
20. Johnny Boney (4- 98) BRI 2 COW 10
21. Johnny Ray (4- 119) ROO 6 COW 10
22. Steel Panther. (4- 124) BRI 10 MEL 15
23. Baggy Gee (4- 131) ROO 8 MEL 6
24. Raiderpete (3- 125) BRI 8 MEL 2
25. Coach Potato (3- 166) ROO 22 COW 7
Submitted by christine on
coach & thinker if I'm reading you ladder right then with the broncos win last night I should be ahead of footy chick on 6 right not 5 if you care to check I would appreciate it guys thanks
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Holy crap guys ! You can already bet on grand final ! I love Australia https://www.williamhill.com.au/rugby-league#offcanvas ;-D
Submitted by christine on
coach thanks for fixing that for me .
Submitted by Steel Panther on
I'm with you there Thinker about Brisbane's third try. One of the best I've seen. I thought Adam Blair was outstanding with Thaiday not far behind.
What are people's thoughts on the Justin Hodges incident? Surely if Michael Ennis can get away with two high shots Hodges should be cleared to play??
Submitted by Andrew on
Good point Panther
I am NSW all the way but I hope that Hodges is not charged and is free to play in the Grand final. I don't think there was anything too bad in the tackle, the only worry would be carry over points if he did get charged.
Cheers
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
In my opinion Justin Hodges will get off especially if Cowboys go on and win this game against Storm. It's a conspiracy remember guys ? ;-D
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Hodges will miss one game if charged with anything - even grade one.
Less than grade one = no case to answer.
There's never been a lift beyond horizontal that had no case to answer.
Sad for Hodges but much sadder indictment on the judiciary and the NRL if he doesnt get a grading.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wIm82CQdISQ COWBOYS !!! ;-D
Submitted by Engineer Pete on
A Queensland grand final, great to see. If only there was a QLD stadium large enough to host it.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
My god, is Tigerholic about to do the tipping double??
Remember Grand Final is worth 3 points, so still gives a smidgin of a chance to someone outside the 6 leaders. Don't think so though, one of the top six is your winner, and by full time will have picked 8 out of the 9 finals games.
1. Mark Ashford. (7- 92) BRI 7 COW 8
2. Tigerholic. (7- 100) BRI 7 COW 10
3. Engineer Pete. (7- 101) BRI 3 COW 7
3. Chooks. (7- 101) BRI 4 COW 10
5. Jazzy. (7- 107) BRI 7 COW 7
6. christine. (7- 109) BRI 4 COW 6
7. Tailspin (6- 97) BRI 8 COW 8
8. Thinker. (6- 98) BRI 4 COW 13
9. Islander. (6- 106) ROO 4 COW 1
10. Shanghai (6- 114) ROO 4 COW 8
11. AJ.(6- 117) ROO 2 COW 6
12. HeadHi. (6- 120) BRI 6 COW 8
13. parrakeet_ . (6- 121) ROO 4 COW 6
14. tonibet. (6- 130) BRI 12 COW 2
14. a - (6- 130) BRI 2 COW 6
16. Rick (5- 100) BRI 6 COW 9
17. Footy Chick (5- 105) BRI 2 MEL 1
18. Johnny Boney (5- 108) BRI 2 COW 10
19. Nik. (5- 119) ROO 1 MEL 1
20. Johnny Ray (5- 129) ROO 6 COW 10
21. Newbie from Perth. (5- 145) ROO 9 MEL 9
22. Baggy Gee (4- 157) ROO 8 MEL 6
23. Steel Panther. (4- 159) BRI 10 MEL 15
24. Coach Potato (4- 179) ROO 22 COW 7
25. Raiderpete (3- 147) BRI 8 MEL 2
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Cowboys have never won a Grand Final and Broncos have never lost one.
I wonder if that's all about to change.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Yeah Coach I think it will be considering we have gone two weeks in NRL without an upset which is huge when you look back at first few weeks of this season when all of us was struggling to get even half of our tips right. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think there was even one week early on where we all got something like two out of eight right and we all thought our mate The Thinker on here was a genius for getting five of them right ! Good times ;-D
Submitted by Tailspin on
Well how bout that then, YE HA, very happy that the boys have made it again after 10 years, a pretty scrappy game I would have to say but got there convincingly in the end. I think if you compare the 2 games played on the weekend, the Cowboys have to lift a notch to match it with the Broncos, and in saying that I think the Cowboys will be 2015 winners, I hope. cant wait.
2 x QLD teams in the grand final, how good is that.
You should have had some coin on that at the start of the year boys.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Take a trip into a time capsule fifty years from now. Say hello to the strange people that travel in strange hovercraft thingys.
Tell them to have a look at the NRL stats from 2015 using that defunct thing in the museum called the internet. See that the Premiership winner correlates to Coach Potato's theory on winning streaks, coming only from the top three streak scores of the year.
Travel back to 2015 with the knowledge the people from 2065 had no idea what you were on about.
Submitted by christine on
feel it's going to be broncos year even though I would like to see cowboys win
Submitted by Tailspin on
C'mon Christine, show a little faith, and coach, well what can I say, ummm yeh ok!!!!
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Great for the game, I will say that, but don't beat your chests too hard Qld'ers about being so much better than the rest of the country, and the start of a domination.
I can name a few more occasions when a Qld team wasn't there.
Submitted by Tailspin on
Got to beat the chest while you can Coach, and are you adding origin into that mix?
Submitted by Tailspin on
Got to beat the chest while you can Coach, and are you adding origin into that mix?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Tailspin, sure beat the chest for here and now. Enjoy the week of your life, hopefully night of your life and beyond. Just don't fall into the trap of arrogance. The only that gobbled up Roosters and Rabbitohs and spat them out the next year.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Well done to a, Tailspin, Mark Ashford, Wally Lewis, and other mystery Cowboys and Broncos fans. This really is the week of your life. A week of dreaming your team scored the winning try, and the odd nightmare about the other team.
Easy to contemplate how you will celebrate if you win, and impossible to contemplate how it will shatter you to lose.
I will be a keen spectator once the Panthers take down those Silver-tailed Eagles, as will a Stadium full of fans, in a Stadium big enough to accommodate.
Submitted by Tailspin on
Thanks Coach, and I hope the Panthers win too.
Submitted by christine on
tailspin I would show faith if I see reason to but I feel jt is playing injured & I do feel it's a broncos year so for me my money is going on broncos without even seeing odds cause cowboys have to do a lot more than step up a notch to beat broncos
Submitted by christine on
hodges won't get off for what he did izzac luke was made to miss last years grandfinal so hodges should as well
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Koribete getting 10 minutes in the bin at the most vital of stages of a preliminary final for a glancing blow that wouldnt have hurt a fly.
If I remember rightly Gallen didn't even get sinbinned, not even penalised for his right to the jaw of Myles.
Origin more important than a preliminary final? How sad NRL
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Gates open at 1:15pm and Holden Cup kicks off at 1:35pm ??? You gotta be f-in' joking NRL.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Yeah that is sort of shitty Coach but speaking as someone who's been really fortunate enough to go to alot of games this year it's sort of crap that they constantly pull. I can't tell you how many times at Warriors game I'll be waiting outside gates to get in and first game has already started. That and here's a thought who else thinks that should be play off for third spot at grand final before main game ? Storm Vs Roosters ... ;-D
Submitted by Coach Potato on
JR, Grand Final day used to be a celebration of juniors Harold Mathews and S G Ball, then U23, and Reserve Grade.
Now there's just the Holden Cup (U20), which countless thousands wont get to see the teams run onto the field let alone see the first quarter of the game, then comes the weirdest final concept you could ever believe ??!?? It used to be the best NSW Cup team vs the best QLD Cup team. I thought that was an ok idea, kind of champion of champions thing. But guess what crap you will see this year. The two NSW grand finalists forming one team to play the two QLD grand finalists to form another team. So the teams that went at each other hammer and tong with one celebrating at the end, while the other drag themselves to the nearest hole, then become one team ???? Has anyone ever heard of such absolute shit? What if these teams are intensely tribal and do not like the other one bit, now having to play as one team. Its just a mockery, and currently the best example of what bullshit Grand Final day has become.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Morning Everyone,
The season tipping comp has been updated, and with one game to go first and second place have been decided.
Congratulations to Tigerholic who triumphed with a runaway victory - a mighty effort against a strong field. Bravo.
Mark Ashford holds second spot comfortably with another sterling year. Well done sir.
Third place is still up for grabs - Footy Chick and Wally Lewis are currently tied, with Nik and Yours Truly one point behind. Note that Wally and I can't claim the prize for third place.
All the best
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Well done to Tiger and Mark but I think not much was going to change through the finals series.
I'm feeling good about proposing the finals tipping comp. It's been knife edge all the way. A lot like snakes and ladders which is always good fun. Currently 6 players tied for the lead, and another 9 a point behind. Good luck to all those up there. That club football trophy is starting to feel like the elusive Provan-Summons shield.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
What a horrible curse the Dally M has been. Only three winners have taken out the premiership a week later.
Ray Price - 1982
Peter Sterling - 1986
Matt Orford - 2008
(Although we all know Craig Gower was in a race of his own in 2003 when the players union chose to boycott the event)
Still that only makes 4 premiership winners out of 35.
As if the Cowboys needed any more hoodoos to deal with?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Retraction retraction, the state league final after the Holden Cup is Newcastle v Ipswich. Not the mickey mouse combined teams I thought it was. Also at fault I say is the silly Stadium website that listed the game as Wyong/Newcastle v Townsville/Ipswich long after those finals had been decided. Very slack ass in updating the winners of those games. Maybe half excused for thinking the way I did.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Is Thinker really making Hodges the deciding factor in his tip for the big one, so not tipping anything before Goofy gets judged by Mickey Mouse? He's really that much of a factor?
Submitted by christine on
coach & thinker I don't agree with it but hodges cleared to play the grand final
Submitted by christine on
tailspin I did make the comment the other day I was putting my money on broncos but now i'm not so sure
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Ok so Guerra admitted to diving for a penalty. Isn't the game doing anything about this?
Everyone immediately thinks of soccer when talking of players taking dives for a penalty, but guess what? In soccer, the diver gets penalised. Guerra should have been penalised then. Every time Inglis did the same, he should have been penalised too. Intentionally fall over playing the ball Inglis, Tuivasa, Dugan etc. - Penalty.
Think twice next time wouldn't you - bunch of divers
Submitted by The Thinker on
Evening Coach,
He's not so much of a factor for me, and I'll explain why tomorrow.
Tonight I've been watching the replay of the week one final between these sides. I'm leaning one way more than the other, but this game is about as close to a 50-50 call as I can remember.
My preview and selection will be published by lunchtime tomorrow.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thanks Thinker. I think people have been wanting to talk for days. Or maybe it's just me.
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