Finals - week three

Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

As a rule, the team that makes the most metres wins the game. Metres gives you field position, and with field position comes the opportunity to score points. More opportunities equals more points. It all seems simple enough, but when it comes to the Broncos it isn't so simple. In their gripping semi-final victory over the Cowboys the Broncos conceded almost 400 more metres than their opponent, but they won. The Broncos and the Roosters met in an epic encounter in round 24. On that occasion the Broncos conceded almost 600 more metres than their opponent. The Broncos lost, but the difference between the two sides at full-time was a solitary penalty goal. How they do this is something of a mystery, but here are the two main reasons I think it's working for them:

  • the best goal-line defence in the competition
  • seven tackle restarts from the 20 metre line

The first point feeds the second point. That Broncos goal-line defence frustrates opponents, and at some point the ball goes dead in-goal. Seven tackle restarts is a new rule, and perhaps the oldest coach in the game has adapted quicker than the rest.

I think the final score in the Roosters/Bulldogs final flattered the chooks. Sure they ran away with it when the game was there to be won, but that only happened on the back of one of the most baffling refereeing errors you'll ever see. I think it changed the game. It may not have changed the result, but it definitely changed the game. Before that point the Roosters were almost as sloppy as the Bulldogs, and that won't be good enough. Not nearly good enough. For reasons beyond my understanding the Roosters are favourites on Friday night, but for mine the Broncos are clearly the team to beat. My only concern is driven by paranoia - the notion that the NRL would prefer a Sydney team in the Grand Final. I'll leave the conspiracy theories to others, but there is a voice in my head nagging away. The Broncos may not win, but they should win, and $2.10 is a gift I'm finding hard to ignore. I don't have to back the Broncos because I'm already on them for the Premiership, but I'm tempted. Gamble responsibly.

FUN FACT: The birthday of Wayne Bennett is celebrated every year with a national public holiday - New Years Day.

Verdict – Broncos by 4

Result - Broncos 31 defeated Roosters 12

Melbourne Storm vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – AAMI Park

The teams in the first final met in round 24, and these two sides met in round 25. On that occasion the Storm impressed with a 14-6 victory, and actually kept the Cowboys to 0 until the 79th minute. Since that win the Storm have beaten the Broncos in Brisbane and the Roosters in Sydney. That's a fair form line, and the purple machine would love nothing more than to stand up and make a statement at home while both AFL preliminary finals are in Perth. Can the Cowboys improve on that round 25 performance and turn the tables? The answer is a resounding 'yes'. Michael Morgan and James Tamou didn't play in round 25. They are both great players in their own right, but they also make two other great players (Thurston and Scott) even greater. The Cowboys stood as one against the Sharks and gave us one of the most dominant victories all year. From the very first tackle the result of that game seemed inevitable. But for a wayward night with the boot from Thurston it would have been perfect football. Quite simply if the Cowboys can replicate that performance they can't be beaten. The Storm aren't likely to give their opponents the fast-paced game they've been playing for the past fortnight, but fine weather should ensure that it's fast enough. I say the Broncos/Cowboys game was the high water mark so far this season, and that Cowboys victory over the Sharks supports my case. Those south of the border may not like an all-Queensland grand final, but what a game it would be.

FUN FACT: Storm coach Craig Bellamy and Cowboys coach Paul Green both started out as assistants to Broncos coach Wayne Bennett.

Verdict – Cowboys by 13

Result - Cowboys 32 defeated Storm 12

Wally Lewis - finals week three selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • BRONCOS vs Roosters
  • Storm vs COWBOYS

Comments

tigerholic's picture

Evening Thinker and fellow Tipsters
I have gone with the home crowd advantage in the Friday night match between Broncos and Roosters, still see this as a 1-12 match with the Broncos looking to send Hodges off with a Grand final appearance, Broncos by 7.
The Cowboys Storm match is another difficult decision, normally the week off would be an advantage but I see the roll that the cowboys are on is just to big to ignore, Cowboys by10.

Cheers

Tailspin's picture

Hey everyone. well what a great result last week for the boys, I was at a wedding and missed it god dam it, but the result was awesome,
Broncos by 8
Cowboys by 8
I hope, and what a grand final it will be :)
Hope everyone has a great weekend.

Johnny Ray's picture

Awesome. Looks like everybody has already called it - Broncos Vs. Cowboys grand final. Knowing how dominant Queensland has been at Origin level the last few years, it almost seems pre destined that something like this was going to happen eventually ! Yeah dude, this isn't just fate, this is kismet ! Go Queensland ! ;-D

Broncos by 8
Cowboys by 10

Fun Facts :

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=o1JPWGRt6gI

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JOWR57K2ga0

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cAN17rMMpe0

Cool. Thanks again for everything Thinker. Thanks coach. Laters everybody ! ;-D

chooks's picture

broncos by 4

cowboys by 10

cheers Thinker

newbie from perth's picture

Hi everyone,

2 weeks ago Newbie was heartbroken and last week he was ecstatic. Is it my turn to be heartbroken again this week? The consensus is that the Mighty Chooks will get beat Friday night at Suncorp. Commonsense suggests that everyone’s most probably right. This is a tough one to pick. What should I do? I know, when in doubt, ask the Oracle of Delphi.

Earlier today I went to the great www and consulted the Oracle on whether the Roosters would win and her reply was an emphatic:

“So Zeus has sworn by the almighty Styx”

That’s made it all so much easier. Phew, thanks Oracle!

OK, with that one out of the way I thought why not ask her about the Cowboys and Storm while I was there. When I asked who would win, her reply was something of a shock:

“Apollo is favourable”

As we all know (or should) Apollo was the son of Zeus who in turn was the King of the Gods and the ruler of the heavens. He was also the god of clouds, rain, thunder and lightning. So there’s an obvious connection here which makes me think.

Anyway, enough of the mythology lesson. Here’s my tips for this, the penultimate round of footy:

Roosters by 9
Storm by 9

Yeah I realise these tips are most probably “out there” (or possibly from somewhere where the sun don’t shine) but you never know. One must take into account the NRL’s possible plan for this year’s Grand Final (read “conspiracy”) as well.

Good luck to your mob if they’re still in the “hunt” and here’s hoping we get to see some great footy. Cheers.

@ Johnny Ray

Thanks for the youtubes bro’. Unfortunately couldn’t watch the first one (Clown Panties) as it was one of those “the uploader has not made this video available in your country” situations. Oh well, such is life. Cheers.

P.S. If 4 out of 5 people suffer from diarrhea, does that mean the fifth one enjoys it? Hmmm…

Coach Potato's picture

So the bookies have it all wrong huh?? They still have Roosters as favourite to win the Premiership at $2.85. That's $2.85 to win their next two games. They are $1.75 to win this week in the Cauldron. A visiting NSW team remember. So that means ... 'CrUnCh cRuNcH CrUnCh'... that the Roosters forecasted price in a Grand Final would be $1.62 ($1.75 x $1.62= $2.85). They are forecasting the Roosters starting a hot hot Grand Final favourite - and they're not even gonna make it??

Or are they? I know sentiment is very high up North but this is only telling me the bookies know something.

Or much less rocket science, do they just know it's a Friday night game, and that the Thinker has taken the Broncos.

Coach Potato's picture

1. Islander. (5- 64)
2. Mark Ashford. (5- 68)
3. Engineer Pete. (5- 72)
4. Chooks. (5- 76) BRI 4 COW 10
5. Nik. (5- 78)
5. Tigerholic. (5- 78) BRI 7 COW 10
7. Shanghai (5- 79)
8. christine. (5- 80)
9. AJ.(5- 82)
9. Jazzy. (5- 82)
11. parrakeet_ . (5- 85)
12. Newbie from Perth. (5- 88) ROO 9 MEL 9
13. Footy Chick (4- 67)
14. Tailspin (4- 74) BRI 8 COW 8
15. Thinker. (4- 76) BRI 4 COW 13
16. Johnny Ray (4- 94) BRI 8 COW 10
17. HeadHi. (4- 95)
18. a - (4- 99) BRI 2 COW 6
19. Baggy Gee (4- 104)
20. tonibet. (4- 105)
21. Rick (3- 76)
22. Johnny Boney (3- 81)
23. Steel Panther. (3- 115)
24. Coach Potato (3- 125) ROO 22 COW 7
25. Raiderpete (2- 114)

newbie from perth's picture

Hey JR. Thanks for the “new” link. Yeah, it’s really sad but I remember watching that episode (many times actually) and the best bit was when Eric said:

“You’re livin’ in the past man! You’re hung up on some clown from the 60s man!”

The dialogue doesn’t set the world on fire I know but it’s the way he delivers the line. Freakin’ funny as you-know-what (starts with an F and ends in a K). Watched it twice just so I could have another giggle. Cheers bro’.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Oh the inhumanity, being forced to endure an all QLD grand final. As we all know I have little to no time for either team, I can see the NRL giving Hodges the script to finish al la Lockyer, another game that I thought went to the wrong team. And the entire world claiming that Thurston can't be an immortal if he can't lead the Cowboys to both a grand final and a winning grand final. Still not sold on the Cowboys abilities as the Sharks left their team back in Sydney and sent the spares so they were rested for Monday. Based on all that and the fact that the Storm may be gifted a grand final to keep sponsors happy after the T.V. deal.

Roosters by 8
Storm by 6

Lets go with the correct grand final line up.

HeadHi's picture

broncos by 6

cowboys by 8

cheers Thinker

Johnny Ray's picture

http://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/brisbane-to-host-nrl-grand-finals-in-lin... Just want to get serious for a moment *Dons top hat, white tails, monocle and cane, what ? Yes I know it's Penny Farthing ! No, I don't know how it got in the house either !* - when Brisbane does a get second NRL team, do you guys living in Brisbane think they should create a completely new NRL club like they did with Broncos or do you think that they should instead install an already pre existing Brisbane club from the Brisbane city competition like Redcliffe as new NRL team, something that alot of people I speak to, feel should of been done all these years ago back in 1988. It will be interesting to get you guys thoughts on this. Thanks ;-D

Johnny Boney's picture

Hi guys my tips for this week are:

Broncos by 2- I think Broncos in a very close one here.

Cowboys by 10- Cowboys will be too good here I think.

Thanks a lot everyone and cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rick's picture

..................
Cowboys 9pts
Broncos 6pts
Thank you.

parrakeet_'s picture

Roosters by 4
and the
Cowboys by 6

Jazzy's picture

Baggy_Gee be fair, nothing wrong with us Qlders. We have been waiting for a qld grand final for a while now and it might just happen.
Johnny Ray - much talk up here about Ipswich / Toowoomba area might be a contender. Don't forget central coast of NSW.

My tips:
Broncos by 7
Cowboys by 7

Good luck everyone!

Coach Potato's picture

What an absolute crock of shit, Qld Grand Final hosts. Pfffff. Thinker will tell you, fans north of the border dont even tune in on Friday nights if a Qld team isn't playing. Imagine the crowd at Suncorp if two Sydney teams were playing?

Remember 80,000 still packed ANZ when Broncos played Storm in 2006 (ie. not a Sydney team in sight). I doubt those arrogant bastards up north would replicate a non-Qld final, and even if they did they'd only get 50,000 house full anyway. What about Cbus or 1300 Smiles, both only 27,000 capacity. Give it a rest Qld. You've got Buckley's.

Engineer Pete's picture

Looking good for a Queensland grand final.
Broncos by 3
Cowboys by 7

Shanghai's picture

Hi all,

Roosters by 4 and Cowboys by 8

Coach Potato's picture

1. Islander. (5- 64)
2. Mark Ashford. (5- 68)
3. Engineer Pete. (5- 72) BRI 3 COW 7
4. Chooks. (5- 76) BRI 4 COW 10
5. Nik. (5- 78)
5. Tigerholic. (5- 78) BRI 7 COW 10
7. Shanghai (5- 79) ROO 4 COW 8
8. christine. (5- 80)
9. AJ.(5- 82)
9. Jazzy. (5- 82) BRI 7 COW 7
11. parrakeet_ . (5- 85) ROO 4 COW 6
12. Newbie from Perth. (5- 88) ROO 9 MEL 9
13. Footy Chick (4- 67)
14. Tailspin (4- 74) BRI 8 COW 8
15. Thinker. (4- 76) BRI 4 COW 13
16. Johnny Ray (4- 94) BRI 8 COW 10
17. HeadHi. (4- 95) BRI 6 COW 8
18. a - (4- 99) BRI 2 COW 6
19. Baggy Gee (4- 104) ROO 8 MEL 6
20. tonibet. (4- 105)
21. Rick (3- 76) BRI 6 COW 9
22. Johnny Boney (3- 81) BRI 2 COW 10
23. Steel Panther. (3- 115)
24. Coach Potato (3- 125) ROO 22 COW 7
25. Raiderpete (2- 114)

Jazzy's picture

There is talk today of upgrading Suncorp stadium so they can pack more than 50000 in. Don't know whether Qld gov't has any money to chip in since they own the stadium. At present can't see that happening.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Qld government can't/won't come to the party with the stadium, money is the big issue, and living up here in Toowoomba, we could support a NRL team. We have a more stable population then the Gold Coast, we would be a one team town like Brisbane and Townsville, and a lot of great players have come out of the region. We have a strong district competition and with the development happening around the area we would also have infrastructure to support it. The Toowoomba Razorbacks. Catchy title, and the members area could be the pig pen.

newbie from perth's picture

Hi everyone (again),

Jazzy mentioned Queenslanders have been waiting for an all Qld Grand Final for a while and after this weekend it might just happen. Same train of thought from Engineer Pete I see.

Just got me thinking about the two AFL finals being played over here in the West on Friday and Saturday. If Shanghai’s Freo manage a win over the Hawks (seems unlikely) and Newbie’s West Coast Eagles manage a win over the Roos (an absolute certainty) then it will be the first ever all WA Grand Final. Don’t have to tell you how much that would p**s off the AFL, having no Vic side fronting up the week after. I wonder if the AFL have a similar “plan” in place to get one of ‘em in?

I’ll be watching the Eagles v Roos game on Saturday with one of my good friends (and some others) and just hope I don’t write myself off too soon. Normally it would be OK but it dawned on me the other day that besides the 2 beers I had in Thailand in May, I haven’t had a drink since the Grand Final last year! I found that so hard to believe but sat down and thought about it over and over again and just can’t remember any other time I had a drink. Man, must be getting’ old! At least I’ll have a week to recover to get myself primed again for the 2 Grand Finals the week after.

Anyway, enough about the AFL (too much some may argue) so I better get myself outta here. Cheers guys.

Bottom Line : Are we looking at an all QLD NRL GF and an all WA AFL GF this year? Stranger things my friends, stranger things.

@ Baggy_Gee. I see you went Roosters and Storm as well. Uda Man!

AJ's picture

Phew and I thought last week was a toughie. .... here goes my picks for the week

Roosters by 2
Cowboys by 6

Thanks and good luck everyone! !

tonibet's picture

Broncos by 12
Storm lose by 2 (nooohhhh!!!)

Nik's picture

5. Nik. (5- 78) ROO 1 MEL 1

Coach Potato's picture

Yes Newbie that's really the analogy that should give everyone the answer. You've got it.

Scruples Q? Should Freo play West Coast in the AFL Grand Final, would/could/should/will that bring change to the future Grand Final venue?

My answer to would/could/should/and will? Not On Your Life.

Coach Potato's picture

Hey tonibet, Why didn't make the glass half empty for the Roosters?

Eg. Roosters lose by 12?

Coach Potato's picture

1. Islander. (5- 64)
2. Mark Ashford. (5- 68)
3. Engineer Pete. (5- 72) BRI 3 COW 7
4. Chooks. (5- 76) BRI 4 COW 10
5. Nik. (5- 78) ROO 1 MEL 1
5. Tigerholic. (5- 78) BRI 7 COW 10
7. Shanghai (5- 79) ROO 4 COW 8
8. christine. (5- 80)
9. AJ.(5- 82) ROO 2 COW 6
9. Jazzy. (5- 82) BRI 7 COW 7
11. parrakeet_ . (5- 85) ROO 4 COW 6
12. Newbie from Perth. (5- 88) ROO 9 MEL 9
13. Footy Chick (4- 67)
14. Tailspin (4- 74) BRI 8 COW 8
15. Thinker. (4- 76) BRI 4 COW 13
16. Johnny Ray (4- 94) BRI 8 COW 10
17. HeadHi. (4- 95) BRI 6 COW 8
18. a - (4- 99) BRI 2 COW 6
19. Baggy Gee (4- 104) ROO 8 MEL 6
20. tonibet. (4- 105) BRI 12 COW 2
21. Rick (3- 76) BRI 6 COW 9
22. Johnny Boney (3- 81) BRI 2 COW 10
23. Steel Panther. (3- 115)
24. Coach Potato (3- 125) ROO 22 COW 7
25. Raiderpete (2- 114)

Coach Potato's picture

Islander
Mark Ashford
christine
Footy Chick
Steel Panther
Raiderpete

As per Juliet ... Wherefore art though?
As per Lara Bingle ... Where the bloody hell are ya?

Coach Potato's picture

Same questions for

Lazy Lad
JasonW
Captainboozehag
Guru Craig

Coach Potato's picture

Wherefore art thou, I meant.
Sorry Billy Shakespeare.

christine 's picture

broncos by 12 , cowboys by 10

Johnny Ray's picture

Not to be that guy Coach but 'Wherefore art thou' means why not where and you know what anybody wants me I'll be over here, watching the arts channel and their 12 hour marathon of relentless wood chipping and sculpturing ... :-(

christine 's picture

coach can I change my margin please to broncos by 4 , cowboys by 6

Steel Panther's picture

Broncos by 10

Storm by 15

Islander's picture

Roosters by 4
Cowboys by 1

mark ashford's picture

Hi oach sorry a bit late but have had my daughter up here for a couple of days and it's been full on.
Well here goes...
Broncos x 7
Cowboys by 8
As for a Qld GF I think 50,000 -v- 80,000 says it all.
Would like to see one but won't happen in the near future.
Gee Coach you really don't like QLDers do you.

May the best teams win this week with little or no influence from the refs....so that will be Broncs and Cows!!!
Good luck to you if your teams still alive.

mark ashford's picture

Sorry that should be Coach (dicky keyboard)

Footy chick's picture

Broncos by 2
Storm by 1

Have a great weekend boys xxx

Raiderpete's picture

Broncos by 8
Storm by 2

Coach Potato's picture

In answer to your question Mark, it's a strange irony, it was King Wally that first fuelled my hatred of Qld'ers, and truth be known, its how the King probably wanted it to be.

The fire still burns but it's not such a bad thing. Please don't take it personally. I hate all Qld'ers. King Wally you are great, but you are still a Qlder and I hate your guts too. Afterall, you lit the fire.

Coach Potato's picture

1. Islander. (5- 64) ROO 4 COW 1
2. Mark Ashford. (5- 68) BRI 7 COW 8
3. Engineer Pete. (5- 72) BRI 3 COW 7
4. Chooks. (5- 76) BRI 4 COW 10
5. Nik. (5- 78) ROO 1 MEL 1
5. Tigerholic. (5- 78) BRI 7 COW 10
7. Shanghai (5- 79) ROO 4 COW 8
8. christine. (5- 80) BRI 4 COW 6
9. AJ.(5- 82) ROO 2 COW 6
9. Jazzy. (5- 82) BRI 7 COW 7
11. parrakeet_ . (5- 85) ROO 4 COW 6
12. Newbie from Perth. (5- 88) ROO 9 MEL 9
13. Footy Chick (4- 67) BRI 2 MEL 1
14. Tailspin (4- 74) BRI 8 COW 8
15. Thinker. (4- 76) BRI 4 COW 13
16. Johnny Ray (4- 94) BRI 8 COW 10
17. HeadHi. (4- 95) BRI 6 COW 8
18. a - (4- 99) BRI 2 COW 6
19. Baggy Gee (4- 104) ROO 8 MEL 6
20. tonibet. (4- 105) BRI 12 COW 2
21. Rick (3- 76) BRI 6 COW 9
22. Johnny Boney (3- 81) BRI 2 COW 10
23. Steel Panther. (3- 115) BRI 10 MEL 15
24. Coach Potato (3- 125) ROO 22 COW 7
25. Raiderpete (2- 114) BRI 8 MEL 2

mark ashford's picture

Coach it only took the King to fuel you...any one else??
We've had Benny Elias, most of your forwards, Toovey, lately Gallen, Ennis, Reynolds and a host of cheap shot merchants from NSW who want to win by anything dirty possible.
Unfortunately it's QLD 10 NSW 1.
So I don't think it's the King just a bit of jealously that QLD produces superior players.
So there you go Coach I said we would have one more stoush before it's all over.
Love your passion mate...don't ever lose it!!!!!!
If ever you'd like a fishing holiday please ask THE THINKER for my email, I'd love to have you up here!

mark ashford's picture

Just had another thought
perhaps Footy Chick would like a trip to Fraser Island
and maybe Tonibet could join us?
We'll bring the icecreams..no problem.
Johhny Ray you fly in mate I'll pick you up at the airport and it's game on.
Newbie get a leave pass, Footy Chick is worth it.
Fraser Island will never be the same.
Think about it guys & gals
Could be a great end of season party.

Coach Potato's picture

Having a quiet moment before the big game hey Mark?

Johnny Ray's picture

Sorry Coach can I make a late change and change my pick from Broncos by 8 to Roosters by 6 ? Didn't realise that Mitchell Pearce is back in their lineup ! Cool. Thanks Coach ! ;-D

Baggy_Gee's picture

Wow 41 minutes and the game is off here in Toowoomba. How that try was over ruled when RTS still had his arm wrapped around the ball is rubbish.

Coach Potato's picture

# Ahh yes. Didn't take long to reclaim my rightful place

# JR, Pearce back in should have changed your tip to Broncos by 20. The most overrated player in the game, now that Anasta is no more.

# Footy Chick, woo hoo. If Melbourne should win by any score, you lead the pack into Grand Final day.

1. Mark Ashford. (6- 80) BRI 7 COW 8
2. Engineer Pete. (6- 88) BRI 3 COW 7
3. Tigerholic. (6- 90) BRI 7 COW 10
4. Chooks. (6-91) BRI 4 COW 10
5. Jazzy. (6- 94) BRI 7 COW 7
6. Footy Chick (5- 84) BRI 2 MEL 1
7. Tailspin (5- 85) BRI 8 COW 8
8. Islander. (5- 87) ROO 4 COW 1
9. Thinker. (5- 91) BRI 4 COW 13
10. christine. (5- 95) BRI 4 COW 6
11. Nik. (5- 98) ROO 1 MEL 1
12. Shanghai (5- 102) ROO 4 COW 8
13. AJ.(5- 103) ROO 2 COW 6
14. parrakeet_ . (5- 107) ROO 4 COW 6
15. HeadHi. (5- 108) BRI 6 COW 8
16. tonibet. (5- 112) BRI 12 COW 2
17. Newbie from Perth. (5- 116) ROO 9 MEL 9
17. a - (5- 116) BRI 2 COW 6
19. Rick (4- 89) BRI 6 COW 9
20. Johnny Boney (4- 98) BRI 2 COW 10
21. Johnny Ray (4- 119) ROO 6 COW 10
22. Steel Panther. (4- 124) BRI 10 MEL 15
23. Raiderpete (3- 125) BRI 8 MEL 2
24. Baggy Gee (4- 131) ROO 8 MEL 6
25. Coach Potato (3- 166) ROO 22 COW 7

mark ashford's picture

Well there you go Coach,
no wasn't having a quiet moment just a realisation who was going to win and what do you know it's the BRONCS
THINKER( who was born under the shadows of the goal posts at Redcliffe,)
I know you backed the Broncs but why not the Chooks who are your team....where is the loyalty???
Feel vindicated being a QLDer (with the best players)
3 Teams to go and not a NSW team in sight
All you QLD knockers...bring on SOO 2016

Just kidding it's easy to brag when you're in front. Just wanted to keep the rivalry going Coach.
Next year it will be your Panthers -v- my Broncos
Yeah man bring it on.
Love everyone on this site!!!!!

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