Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters - Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
A sombre mood hung over the city of Brisbane after their round one loss to the Rabbitohs, but in the four weeks since the Broncos have moved from last on the ladder to equal first - perhaps my season predictions weren't as overly optimistic as most (including me) thought. This game should give us a guide to their level, taking on one of the competition heavy-hitters backing up from a surprise loss at home. Justin Hodges is unavailable for one more week so this Bennett backline, held together with enthusiasm and good intentions, needs to keep on doing what it's doing. If Hodges can get his hamstrings right, and Boyd can get his head right...look out everyone! Aidan Guerra is out for some time for the Chooks - he's one of my favourite players but the Roosters aren't short on talent in the back row. Note the important return of Jared Waerea-Hyphens. His one-two punch combo with Sam Moa can put opponents on the ropes in double-quick time. Credit to the Broncos for what they've continued to do with the cattle they have, but I'll take the Chooks in a close one. Game of the round.
p.s. those wondering why the Chooks would let Roger Tuivasa-Sheck go to the Warriors, check out the 17 year old kid (Latrell Mitchell) in the video below (language warning)
Verdict – Roosters by 2
Result - Broncos 22 defeated Roosters 18
Cronulla Sharks vs Newcastle Knights – Friday night – Remondis Stadium
Ben Barba gets put in his box for a while - coming off the bench while rising stars Jack Bird (five-eighth) and Valentine Holmes (fullback) are in the starting thirteen. It was impossible to ignore this duo in the Auckland Nines and Jack Bird stepped up to the podium and announced his arrival in grand style last weekend. To play in an unfamiliar position and perform like that against a quality opponent....let's just say he gets a big tick from me. This time his opponents will be paying him his due, and he has the added pressure of the Friday night timeslot (and the inevitable Channel Nine promotion). The Sharks don't get a lot of Friday night fixtures, and when they do they often lose. That they usually play a very good team when they do get a Friday night slot goes some of the way toward explaining why. Are the Knights a very good team? Undefeated until the 'Alex McKinnon' game, where they were a strong favourite and couldn't score a point. Beau Scott is out for the Knights and you want all your tough forwards on deck when you face the Sharks. He's one of the best defenders in the game and just the sort of forward that could apply plenty of pressure to a young playmaker - without Scott I am deeply unsure. I'll punt on Kade Snowden and Jeremy Smith (former Sharks) having big games at their old stomping ground. Tipsters note that I am suffering from the Friday night curse again this season, so you may wish to lean the other way.
Verdict – Knights by 2
Result - Sharks 22 defeated Knights 6
Parramatta Eels vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday afternoon – Pirtek Stadium
Usually not the sort of game I would recommend as a viewing highlight, but Reece Robinson is back for the Eels, and his goal-kicking gives me a peaceful easy feeling. Now we just need the Eels to score a few tries...hardly a certainty. The Titans looked fantastic for 20 minutes against the Broncos but couldn't cross the stripe. Given recent results, the final score might look like an A-League result. Hopefully both sides have spent the week working on some attacking plays. Given the Eels are back at Pirtek I'll tip them at home...it's the only rational explanation I have.
Verdict – Eels by 2
Result - Titans 38 defeated Eels 16
New Zealand Warriors vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – Mt Smart Stadium
The Warriors are $1.40 to win this game - possibly the worst bet in the history of rugby league. Our favourite cousins have started the season with one of their typically craptastic starts. They may find their feet this weekend, but you have to take toxic odds if you want to back them to do so. Despite my well-founded reservations I'm going to tip them anyway. Both teams are backing up from a Monday night fixture in Australia, but I'm assuming the Warriors trip to New Zealand is a relief, while the same journey for the Tigers has the opposite effect. Look for tired legs in the last 20 minutes and for one team to run away from the other.
Verdict – Warriors by 14
Result - Warriors 32 defeated Tigers 22
Penrith Panthers vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday night – Pepper Stadium
We mentioned the Monday night back-up curse for the Panthers, but they won't get a better chance to break the hoodoo than this weekend. The Sea Eagles were near enough to ordinary last weekend and they have to front up with the same seventeen again. I don't think their forward pack (as it stands...and its barely standing) is good enough right now, and the Manly backline could be in for a frustrating period. Barbs will be thrown at their departing playmakers, but Foran and Hyphen-Evans were two of their better performers last week. Penrith are missing a few big guns also, but the guns they have are good enough. Trendy choreographed hand-shakes for Elijah Taylor - who made more tackles last weekend (77) than most rugby union players make in their entire careers.
Verdict – Panthers by 2
Result - Panthers 22 defeated Sea Eagles 12
Canberra Raiders vs Melbourne Storm – Sunday afternoon – GIO Stadium
If the seventeen named for Canberra were contracted to the Melbourne Storm, how many of them would Craig Bellamy name in his seventeen? I'm thinking probably one (former Storm winger Sisa Waqa) and maybe two (if Josh Papali found his best form). Canberra at home keeps them in the contest, but in recent times they've been losing more games at home than winning. Note that Billy Slater is a doubtful starter this weekend. That just means Smith and Cronk will lift another notch. Purple reign...purple reign.
Verdict – Storm by 10
Result - Storm 14 defeated Raiders 10
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium
Karma Police...suspend these men. The Dragons couldn't have timed this better with Graham, Klemmer and Kasiano all accepting their match bans and injuries to Lafai and Brett Morris (in the last tackle of the game no less). I mentioned the Dragons defensive efforts last week and they mentioned it as well by keeping the Knights scoreless in Newcastle. They are the surprise packet in season 2015 thus far and I think they're near enough to good things this weekend. At $1.90 I'm happy to ride the Dragon train. Backing the 'total score unders' worked last week and you can do worse than throw your winnings on that option again (gamble responsibly).
Verdict – Dragons by 8
Result - Dragons 31 defeated Bulldogs 6
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs North Queensland Cowboys – Monday night – ANZ Stadium
I'm not sure if the Cowboys are back, but if they win back-to-back Monday night fixtures in Sydney against quality opponents I will be more sure than I am now. One thing I am sure of is this - the NRL is a better competition when the Cowboys are playing well. They were outstanding last Monday against Penrith, and if they bring that form they win again. The loss of Reynolds for the Bunnies is crucial. His kicking in general play is even more important than his goal-kicking. Someone has to take on that role, and I don't think that person can be John Sutton. Clearly Thurston has been playing at some sort of non-human level for the last two weeks, but do not under-estimate the rest of the Cowboys spine. The return of Coote at the back, Morgan in the halves and Granville as the starting hooker has made a world of difference. Bunnies are favourites...Cowboys to win.
Verdict – Cowboys by 4
Result - Cowboys 30 defeated Rabbitohs 12
Wally Lewis - round six selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- Broncos vs ROOSTERS
- Sharks vs KNIGHTS
- EELS vs Titans
- WARRIORS vs Tigers
- PANTHERS vs Sea Eagles
- Raiders vs STORM
- Dragons vs BULLDOGS
- RABBITOHS vs Cowboys
Comments
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has been confirmed as a Warrior, while Sam Tomkins will be granted an early release from his three year deal.
The Auckland NRL club announced Tuivasa-Sheck's signing today on a long term contract.
The Roosters fullback will join the Warriors at the end of this year, signed until the end of the 2018 season.
Meanwhile Tomkins, who is currently sidelined by a knee injury, will see out the season at Mt Smart before returning to the northern hemisphere.
Another career about to be ruined. Does anyone remember Grant Young from the Sth Queensland Crushers?
Submitted by mark ashford on
Hi all thought I'd get in early this week (doesn't seem to matter early or late it's hard to pick a winner)
Sorry Steel one can't remember Grant Young can you fill us in?
in the meantime
Sharks
Roosters
Eels
Warriors
Panthers
Storm
Dragons
Rabbits
Of the above selections I am not sure of any of them.
I must say I'm glad to see a stand has been taken against ref abuse. I just hope it's consistent as the dogs are not the only club doing it.
Good luck with your picks this week.
Submitted by tigerholic on
Hey Mark, you sound as sure as my tips lately. It seems that no teams are a sure thing this week, I do think the Warriors will put 13plus on the Tigers at Mt Smart Stadium, especially with Manu Vatuvei playing in a milestone match for himself.
Good luck with this weeks tips.
Tigerholic
Submitted by mark ashford on
Yes Tigerholic it's a lottery again.
I honestly believe every game is a toss up this week. With maybe the Warriors and Storm safe bets. (is there any such thing)
Johnny Ray I finally got time to watch 'Jesus meets the Terminator" man what a classic. Where do you find these things.
Coach if your stats are right then my Broncs will feature in Sept something to look forward to.
Joker you are back right? You were just joking right? That,s why the name Joker right? Does Batman know you're here?
Submitted by christine on
welcome back joker :joker is a permanent fixture on the tipping ladder & that's the way the tipping ladder should remain .
Submitted by Chi Spurga on
Steel Panther, using an old worn out memory I think grant young played for my local IPSWICH JETS at prop. May have played for London Bronco's and had serious injury or a problem or something or rather.
That's gotta be close. haha
Submitted by The Joker on
Thank you christine that is very lovely of you.. now to sort my tips... :) ..
Submitted by The Joker on
Batmans got nothin :-P
Submitted by The Joker on
Roosters by 8
Sharks by 6
Titans by 2
Warriors by 12
Manly by 2
Storm by 12
Dogs by 4
Rabbits by 6
Submitted by christine on
I know this won't be received well but George burgess has been cleared to play this week .
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hi Thinker and His Little Helper,
Just a quick question before I put my tips in tonight …
Newbie’s gonna be away in Thailand for Rounds 8 and 9 (happy days indeed!) so would it be OK if I put my tips for those rounds up here in the comments section next week say and one of you kind gentlemen somehow work your “magic” and wangle them through for me?
That way I won’t miss out on putting my tips in. Not that I’m doing all that great but hey, gotta keep trying eh? Newbie would be ever so grateful if you could. Pretty please????
Submitted by The Thinker on
Newbie,
Have a great time in Thailand. By all means put your tips in the comments section when you can and we'll sort it out.
All the best
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Thanks Boss! You Da Man! Or should I say...
Sa-wat-dii khrap! Korp kun Thinker. Chai, phom mii-kwam-sook!
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hi everyone,
Another average week for tipping. Well, for mine anyway. This is starting to hurt. Especially my pride when the Roosters get beaten! As painful as it was, I sat through the entire Roosters/Sharks game on Sunday and as you may have guessed, it was not the most enjoyable thing I’ve experienced so far this season.
I don’t mind getting beaten but not after I’ve bagged the Cry Baby’s team. I don’t dislike the Sharks, just that whinger Gallen. Sorry Shark fans, it’s just how I feel. Well done to your guys for taking it up to us and winning. You played a great game and deserved the points. Ah well, there’s always next week eh?
Regarding all the “kind-hearted banter” in the comments last week - Newbie’s loving it. Not because I take vicarious delight in seeing brawls (except in SOO) but because I love to see people with passion AND manners stirring the pot of ideas. Points of view I need to see to help me fully appreciate this wonderful game of ours. Keep it coming as long as it’s done with respect.
As a side issue, the Boss has to be happy on a purely “comments posted” basis I would imagine. I don’t seem to remember logging on in past years and seeing so many comments posted. Some short and sweet, some as long as a short story. I’m lovin’ it man! Check it out:
50 x Round 1
50 x Round 2
76 x Round 3
111 x Round 4
139 x Round 5
If it keeps going on like this you’ll soon be cracking 200-300 each week on a regular basis Boss!
OK, enough of that, let’s get into it…
Roosters - I’m with the Boss on this one. Should be close one you’d think. Newbie is “buoyed” by the fact that we get JWH back this week but brought back down a bit knowing we lose Aiden. Dag-nab it! Yeah, the Broncos are sailing along nicely but I gotta pick my beloved Chooks. Carn you Roosters!
@ Steel Panther - my week was going so well until you told me about “Roger the Dodger” leaving us this year. The Warriors have done well! Oh well, I still have some Prozac left over from last week…
Sharks - after last week’s effort I’m sticking with the Sharks. They knocked off a good side and they’re up against a Knights side that had a shocker. Go with the obvious pointers (I hope they’re obvious) and I’ve gotta tip those Sharkies.
Eels - can’t seem to get all that enthused about this one. Neither side is yelling at me shouting “Pick me! Pick me! So I’ll take the sage advice of the Boss and tip the Eels because they’re at home.
Wests - absolutely lost on this one. All I could come up with was Warriors 4 and (-9) compared to the Tigers 6 and (+20). Hells Bells! I’ll go the Tigers.
Panthers - Manly have taken over the mantle as this week’s NRL “basket case” so Newbie’s gotta go the the Penrith Panthers at the Pepper Palladium this week. Mind you, I won’t be surprised if it turns “pear-shaped”.
Storm - while they did win last week, the Raiders only beat Manly who aren’t travelling that well at the moment. Then again the Storm Troopers did lose to Manly but that was in Round 2 and such a long time ago. Formlines have changed a bit since then and Melbourne look to me like they will be a bit too good for the Green Machine on Sunday. Has me humming that immortal Doors classic “R(a)iders on the storm”. Geez I’m showing my age here but one of the coolest songs ever!
Dragons - Dogs have Graham, Klemmer, Kasiano and Morris (and the Thinker now tells me Lafai as well) all MIA this week. That can’t help their cause much. Might upset their “balance” somewhat. You would think, given the “roll” the Dragons are on at the present time, that they should get the bickies this week. The Big Red V for me.
Souths - nice effort from the Cowboys last week. Can they do it again? Will JT have another blinder? Will our friend “a” tip them this week? For the answer to these and other burning questions, make sure you tune into the last game of the round. Awesome! I’m gonna give the Fluffy Ones another chance, possibly against my better judgement.
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week people. Cheers.
P.S. Why don’t they make the sticky stuff on envelopes taste like chocolate? Hmmm…
Submitted by The Thinker on
Thanks for the kind words Newbie....I think
In the last month 46 people from Thailand have visited this site. If you could track a few of them down and thank them for me it would be much appreciated.
It's great to see all the comments...even the heated ones. I caught up with my little helper in the flesh over the Easter break and we got to talking about the site...as you do.
Last week the website had 33,000 views. We'll get perilously close to the magic million mark by the end of the season. And if I could find some form we'd get there easily.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
- Awesome. Bonjour Everybody ! Or Bon Jovi as they say in France ! I don't know how you feel about this but for me this competition is just getting completely harder and harder to pick ! Congratulations again goes out to Declan_S and Birdboy for staying on the top of ladder for another week. Let's get on with this weeks pick as I suspect there will still be some surprises ...
Sharks - To knock off Roosters away from home takes huge effort so that's why I'm picking them to beat Knights this week at Shark Park especially with their star player Beau Scott out. Sharks by 6 points.
Roosters - Broncos still have some issues with their pack and that Titans came close to putting them away last week tells me that they will struggle to contain chooks at home who will be desperate for a win after what happened to them last week. P.S for those of you that are still interested my crotch looks dazzling ! Roosters by six points.
Titans - With Anthony Wartmough out I think Eels will struggle to hold Titans forwards back as they work it up their middle for easy gains. Again this game could go either way but Titans by ten points.
Warriors - Home ground advantage should give us edge, though with our fullback out Sam Tomkins I will admit the West Tigers do look like the far better team this week. New Zealand Warriors by eight points.
Panthers - Sea Eagles with their roster should be able keep this game close though of course we all know what happened to them last week in Anal Beads NSW. Albury ! Albury NSW. Stupid Auto Correct ! Man you mention you're crotch just once on IPad and it starts think you're typing a letter to your girlfriend ! Dude ! Panthers by fourteen points.
Raiders - Melbourne Storm are playing one of their two bogey teams away from home this week and they plan on doing this week without Billy Slater. You've got to go with green machine on this one cause it will be close ! I guarantee it ! Canberra Raiders by four or five points.
Drag Queens - Crap it's doing it again. Drag queens. Nope. D r a g q u e e n s. Nope. Mythical flying lizard looking land animal indigenous to European continent and English Coast that some notable historians speculate was based on part of now extinct European Rhino. Yeah ! There we go ! Man I'm never mentioning my crotch again ! For me I can't see Bulldogs winning this with number of players they have out because of what happened last week on "Bad Friday". Men who like to wear women's clothing by two points.
Cowboys - The Rabbits have traditionally always struggled against Cowboys and with Issac Luke out and Adam Reynolds still in doubt for this clash, I've going with in form Cowboys in this one, in what will be undoubtably match of round. Nth Qld Cowboys by field goal.
Thanks alot Thinker. Thanks Everybody ! Good luck with your all picks and go NZ Warriors ! Kiwi Power ! Peow ! Peow ! Laters ! ;-D
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
@ Newbie From Perth : https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5xillqqt0Y0 ;-D
Submitted by Steel Panther on
I'm sure the Thinker remembers Grant Young. He signed for the then Auckland Warriors in 1997 admist hype and fanfare from the South Queensland Crushers. He went on to play only about 9 games and was released at the end of the season. Yes Chi Spurga he did have a stint at Ipswich Jets late in his playing days. My point about Roger Tuivasa-Sheck was signing with the Warriors has been the death knell of many a player over the years. Just to name a couple of players Denan Kemp and Joel Moon who had stellar seasons at the Broncos to then go on and be major disappointments at the Warriors, notably Kemp who pretty much disappeared into obscurity. Another recent example is Dane Neilsen. A star at Melbourne, Queensland Origin player to a disa-star at the Warriors. Even Jason Bukuya failed to make a mark.
@Newbie - I agree, I've enjoyed the passionate comments on this site and think this is healthy as long as it is taken in context. We all know that we don't always agree with the next bloke but everyone is entitled to an opinion whether you agree with it or not.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
@ Johnny Ray
Doors fans aren't made, they're born! How true that is my friend, how true. While the video was a bit tongue-in-cheek, the basic premise is spot on. Cousin Pete put me onto them in a roundabout way and have been a huge fan ever since.
James Douglas Morrison will never die! Awesome!
Submitted by mark ashford on
Newbie & Johnny Ray all this talk of the Doors has made me realise why James Graham was so stirred up on Good Friday.
After awarding the penalty ref Sutton started singing the Doors "Touch me" to JG....who found it very hard not to.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
I agree James Morrison is one of the all time greats. And yes he isn't dead. https://youtu.be/EQCPlmSbzjc Proof that this legend has been seen in a city near you.
Submitted by Declan_S on
Roosters - quite the unpredictable game! I'm banking on the 'apology' from Mitchell Pearce (and obviously the disappointing loss) to light a fire under his team. Mitchell Aubusson played well last week I don't think the loss of Guerra will affect them too much. It's also rare for a team to win 5 in a row, I'll hoping the Broncos continue this trend.
Knights - if I didn't love the Knights I'd probably back the Sharks. Hoping for a strong bounce back at a stadium where they've won more times than they've lost. The loss of Beau Scott is obviously concerning but if there's one thing Houston can do (the only thing Houston can do), it is tackle, so don't expect any defensive weaknesses from this side of the field. Leilua up against Beale could also be an opportunity for a barge over try
Eels - After the rabbitohs game I'm fairly convinced that Parramatta at home is one of the toughest games of anybody's draw. The outside backs will make the difference in this game, with the likes of Folau and Faraimo being too big and strong for the likes of Anthony Don and David Mead.
Warriors - This is a bit of a danger game for tipsters, with the Tigers boasting pretty much their full, in-form team, whilst the Warriors are at home, albeit without Tomkins. The bounce back factor (BBF) will be moderately strong with the Warriors - look for Shaun Johnson to maybe show us some glimpses that he's coming back to some sort of form. Lolohea is improving at fullback also.
Panthers - The BBF will be strong with both teams in this game. DCE/Foran will be desperate to prove that they're still trying their hardest for their current team, whilst the Panthers need to make a statement about proving that they're not just a one player team. This isn't a justifiable reason but I think the fact that the referee's came under so much scrutiny in the Panther's game last week, may influence this week's ref ever so slightly when it comes to adjudicating crucial points in the match. Playing at home will also help, not to mention their forward pack will roll over the opposition's.
Storm - the golden rule of 'if the forward packs match up, look at the backs' applies here well and truly. In saying that though I believe the Storm's starting pack is ahead of the Raider's. I'm just not quite sure where the points are going to come from in this Raider's backline when they're versing a side like the Storm. Croker is good for a try every few games and Wighton is a talent, but I'm not brave enough to say that the Raiders will score more points than the Storm (even with Slater out)
Bulldogs - This is one of the trickiest games we've had to tip so far this season. Do we back a Dragon's team which has defended well against 3 mediocre offensive efforts?
Or do we put our faith in who is currently the best rugby league coach (in my humble opinion) without his talismanic leader and strike bench player?
It's a hard one, and as the Thinker did well to point out, will be a low scoring encounter, meaning an upset is on the cards (although which team is the underdog?)
If you take a look at the backline it really isn't too different to the one which took them to the grand final last year.
I'll back Hasler to work his magic as they usually thrive off the 'backs to the wall' mentality.
Cowboys - the bunnies will most likely suffer from panther's syndrome (to an extent) with Adam Reynolds out. They just do not have a halfback with the same kind of experience or talent. Thurston will realise that his team is not yet in the top 8 and most likely pull a rabbit out of the bag in a match winning play of some description.
Submitted by The Joker on
The Joker was joking about his previous tips.
Here are the final winners.. same margins..
Roosters
Sharks
Titans
Tigers
Panthers
Storm
Bulldogs
Cowboys
Submitted by a on
Here are my tips
Broncos by 2 I think the Broncos will get off and win
Sharks by 2 I think Sharks will win in a thiller here
Eels by 6 I think the Eels will get up and win here
Warriors by 8 Warriors should win over the Tigers
Panthers by 8 Dude do not let Manly win here
Storm by 10 Storm by get up to their 4th win of the season
Dragons by 1 with all the players Bulldogs have out Dragon will win in a thiller
Cowboys by 4 Cowboys are back baby and will win their 4th staight here
Submitted by Chi Spurga on
G'day all,
ROOSTERS - Chooks have the better power up front and speed at the back. The ponies lost to the only other "top" team they've played.
SHARKS - Hard to gauge / guess this game. Sharks at home (tick) Knights scoreless even with big wind behind them (cross) and were at home (cross). Beau Scott out (cross) giving Gallen confidence to run up middle (tick). Yeah I got nothing........... Sharks at home will do.
PARRA --At home. Won 11 of last 13. Eels have gone L W L ? gotta be a win ? Right??? Titans named same team beaten by Bronco's, good luck with that.
WARRIORS -- Easy game to pick. Tigers are "just" winning and last week must have used up all there luck for this week too. Warriors to hold the ball and win. Just.
MANLY -- Penrith are struggling without Soward. Wallace can't lead! Youngsters are getting exposed now. Manly aren't any better ...... BUT ...... I expect this to be a crappy boring game. Which always suit Manly. And thinking Matai and maybe Lyons will "suddenly" become available for selection. Sneaky Manly!
MELBOURNE -- Tilse last game and 200th and good record against Storm is encouraging but realisticly, MELBOURNE are certainly gunna prove much harder to beat than Manly last week.
BULLDOGS -- Drags have best defense but no offense. Dogs / Hasler love a bit turmoil. Taking Dogs on a gut feeling......low scoring game.
COWBOYS -- I really dunno why. Gut feeling again. Souths last week were lucky ( sort of kind of maybe you know). Cowboys starting to roll forward strongly. The 3 big men all making big inroads now. And quite frankly the loss of Reynolds is huge. Sutton or not it is a huge loss.
Best of luck to all and have a great weekend. Stay safe.
22/40
P.S. For the gamblers out there. I think very good odds available in the MASTERS GOLF for TOP FINISHING DEBUTANT @ $10 DANNY WILLETT and ROBERT STREB @ $13. Fav. in this bet has RIB INJURY and 2nd Fav. is out of form. 3rd fav. cannot "draw"the golf ball which is needed at Augusta. Just my thoughts.
Submitted by Shanghai on
Hi all,
The George Costanza method is over and done with ... no more hiding behind his philosophy.
Roosters to bounce back
Sharks
Eels
Tigers
Panthers
Storm
Dragons
Cowboys
Good luck everyone ....
P.S. Newbie - if you have room in the suitcase, bring me back a bottle of Jamesons please ..... thanks bro
Submitted by newbie from perth on
@ Shanghai - yeah bro', consider it done. You know what Jamesons' tastes like don't you?
Arroi maaaaaaa!
@ Baggy_Gee - oh you're such a wag! Funny though, enough to make me smile and let rip with half a chortle! Cheers mate.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Glad I could give you a laugh. Watching Jimmy Carr and thinking about my tips. Not a clue and if this was an interactive show, I'd be taking his advice. Jimmy would do better than I am . But here I go.
Sharks - I'm a sucker for the Sharkies. But analytically I think that the location and last weeks big big big big big big big big big big upset has the Sharks ready to start their revival.
Roosters - By now everyone should know that unless the Bronco's are $1.0001 favourites I'll give them a miss, but playing one of the form teams of the compertition lengthens the lengths I would go to back them.
Eels - Hopefully Reece starts, and the BOYS get up for a great game at home.
Warriors - If the Tigers can manage the game like they did last week then there is a chance, but the warriors are a big occasion team and I think that the emotion could get them over the line.
Manly - Hmmmmmmm what happened last week, the Panthers should have got home. But they let it slip and if Manly are getting back into form then letting a game slip even slightly that a dangerous mistake to make.
Storm - This is the odd game, the Raiders seem to like beating the Storm down in Melbourne. Up in Canberra it could be more of the same or the Storm will prove that they are getting their ducks in a line. I'm leaning towards the Storm to get up.
Dragons - With a injury/suspended list that rivals Manly's it could be a rather long fortnight for the Dogs. Des will try to form a plan but as we know plans never survive contact.
Rabbits - Unless the Cowboys forwards have found a way to go ahead then the Bunnies might have the makings of a win and a return to the winners circle.
Submitted by a on
I hope I can get more than 4 this weekend
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Welcome to another round. I hope I get 8 this weekend.
Roosters - To make up for last week's embarassing loss to the Sharks. Brisbane missing a couple of key men, notably Kahu who I think has been their best this season.
Sharks - Who may (or may not) have turned a corner after last week's win. Home ground sways me.
Eels - It's at Pirtek against a club who are on the ropes.
Warriors - Watch out for that golden smile Michael as Manu crosses for another four pointer in his 200th game.
Panthers - To arrest an alarming dip in form against a team who are also struggling.
Storm - Even without Billy the Kid I think Melbourne should have too much fire power.
Bulldogs - DOGS OF WAR.
Rabbitohs - Well rested after a 10 day turnaround against a team that (usually) doesn't fare well in Sydney.
Enjoy the weekend everyone and keep those posts coming!!!
Submitted by christine on
I don't watch cricket but Richie benaud has died & you didn't have to watch cricket to know of the name .
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Brisbane
Cronulla
Gold Coast
Wests
Manly
Melbourne
St George
Souths
Submitted by The Thinker on
Morning tipsters,
A quick heads up for everyone. From time to time tipsters, like my wife, like to change their mind. As a tipping comp official and husband I am okay with this, providing your changes go through before the cut-off time.
This means that there will be times when the tips in the comments may not reflect the final selections made.
Those of you that do make changes, try to add a comment if you have time letting us know.
If you want to make changes, make the changes on that form. If there are disputes over who has picked what, I'll be going with who was picked on the tipping form.
The Joker,
On this occasion I have updated your form submission so it reflects your changes in the comments.
Have a great weekend everyone. I'll be closing the tipping comp some time this afternoon.
All the best
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Einstein came up with E=MC². Brilliant. Genius.
Ok I'm no Einstein. No genius. But today I unveil my NRL equivalent. T4=SUM(S1,S2,S3)>=10
WTF Potato? What supplements are you on this time?
My formula says this: To qualify for the top 4 come round 26, you need to show a sum of your three best winning streaks totalling 10 or more. Single wins don't count as a streak, only 2 or more. Regardless of how many streaks a team has, only the three best count. If your three best streaks total 9 or less, very unlikely of making the top 4. Reach 10 and there's a huge chance of finishing 1 to 4 and a home final. As you'll see teams 5 and 6 may sometimes also get to 10. So reaching 10 isn't a guarantee, you need 10 to make it.
Sum of three best streaks:
2014
1.Sydney 13
2.Manly 10
3.South's 11
4.Penrith 10
5.Nth Qld 10
6.Melbourne 8
7.Canterbury 12
8.Brisbane 8
2013
1.Sydney 16
2.South's 14
3.Melbourne 14
4.Manly 11
5.Cronulla 8
6.Canterbury 10
7.Newcastle 7
8.Nth Qld 10
2012
1.Canterbury 15
2.Melbourne 12
3.Souths 12
4.Manly 12
5.Nth Qld 9
6.Canberra 7
7.Cronulla 9
8.Brisbane 8
2011
1.Melbourne 17
2.Manly 13
3.Brisbane 16
4.Wests 12
5.St George 11
6.NZ 11
7.Nth Qld 9
8.Newcastle 8
2010
1.St George 11
2.Penrith 11
3.Wests 10
4.Gold Coast 11
5.NZ 9
6.Sydney 9
7.Canberra 10
8.Manly 8**
2009
1.St George 14
2.Canterbury 13
3.Gold Coast 12
4.Melbourne 8
5.Manly 10
6.Brisbane 11
7.Newcastle 8
8.Parramatta 9
2008
1.Melbourne 12
2.Manly 14
3.Cronulla 10
4.Sydney 10
5.Brisbane 9
6.Canberra 8
7.St George 10
8.NZ 8
I could go on, but I would only be reinforcing the theory. Storm in 2009 were the only ones I found that got less than 10 and still made top 4. History shows they cheated. Tonight's game takes on bigger importance than people think. Brisbane win and get to 5, maybe 6 in the one streak? That just about assures a top 4 spot. So good luck Mark and other Broncos out there. Tonights game is big. Newcastle have a 4 streak in the bag and that's handy too.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Sheesh Coach....I like it. I'm not sure I understand why but I like it.
Here's my research results, as promised on the home page. It's far less complicated than what the Coach is giving us, but as Wayne Bennett and Phil Gould say...rugby league is a simple game.
I've noticed an increased likelihood of 'upset' results in the early rounds each NRL season. I think there are three main reasons this happens:
* markets over-react to early season results
* markets are partly based on the form from the previous season
* teams take a while to find their feet early in the year
So since 2010 I've been keeping records of results through rounds 1-5. I felt there were enough upsets through this period that you could literally back the outsider in every single match and come out in front. You don't want to think about it at all, because if you did you would struggle to back the Sharks to beat the Roosters in round five. The Sharks were the roughest outsider in any game this season thus far...and they won.
This year we've had 'upset' results in 5 of the 8 games in the last two rounds. Most outsiders are paying more than $2.00 so you don't need that many roughies to prevail to turn a profit.
Anyhoo...I've got six years of results now. Granted that is still a small sample, but I can say that if you backed every roughie in every game through rounds 1-5 since 2010 you would have made a handy profit....every single season.
Now I know what you're all thinking - why the hecking heck didn't you tell us about this at the start of the year?
Fair point. I guess I wanted to test it one more time before I opened up my research to peer review and ridicule.
I'll remind you all at the start of season 2016....let's hope the theory stands up for at least one more season.
Submitted by a on
Where is the Guru this weekend
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Yes upsets are for all the above reasons + natural instinct says theres less motivation required after a loss or two or three. That instinct can often be stronger than any formline.
My streak theory is based mostly on logic. Maybe 92% logic, 8% cooincidence. The more times you win, the less games there are left in the season to lose, so 10 or more in three streaks then highly likely you've won more than lost - and that's top 8 minimum.
Then there's the roll on effect. Teams that get on a winning roll are more likely to finish higher than those that get on half a roll and splutter.
Teams that take out the premiership obviously need to do well in September and October. High chance that a top4 team will take into the finals series, the knowledge and confidence that at some stage through the year they succeeded in having a streak long enough to win the finals series. Most in the bottom 8 won't carry this into the finals. The first real early streak last year was the Dogs with a 7. While they didn't make the top 4, I was never greatly confident in the prelim against them knowing they were holding a 7 card and the Panthers with only a 5.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Declan_S, if you only knew 1/ Panthers getting a crook video ref the previous week doesn't equate to getting a better one the next week, and 2/ Panthers playing at home almost guarantees .. a crook video ref.
Submitted by a on
Well they are not going to get help by the refs this weekend because they are playing manly
Submitted by Coach Potato on
You've nailed it Chi Spurga. Wallace is not a leader. He's a cool, calm head, but you need more strings to your bow than that in my opinion. Hey James Graham, you off contract anytime soon?
In the same regard, I'm not the fan of Ivan Cleary that most are. I was disappointed to hear him say before the prelim it was now up to the players now, he couldn't do anymore. Well I understand and agree that coaching wise, it might be too late to start any new plans, but that doesn't give license to suspend being the coach - and giving that final motivational pregame barrage of fire and brimstone. Ivan, just get them to the finals, you've got a great record in that regard, and then Gus, you take over in the sheds.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Phew, Coach your first post today only contained 8 words (your tips) and I thought for one 'orrible moment I may have offended you over the Doggies comments etc.
BUT I've come back in and here you are with those amazing stats again so all is right with the world. Like The Thinker I'm not sure I fully comprehend it all but what the hey if it's good news for the Broncs then bring it on.
Have a great weekend all I'm off to the pub for a couple of coldies (hey it's still summer here on the Gold Coast!)
Submitted by The Thinker on
Afternoon all
I've closed the tipping comp for the round. The Guru hasn't quite made it but he's been under the pump of late.
Guru,
If you get here before kick-off just add your tips in the comments and I'll push them through for you.
Have a great weekend everyone.
All the best
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I might be causing blasphemy by mentioning the letters AFL, but if anyone's interested the top 4 streak theory works just as well on the other oval ball game.
More blasphemy is my wish that the NRL start using the narrower AFL ball. Less predictable when it hits the ground, and much (much) harder for goal-kickers. I'm kinda sick of seeing guys tee it up from the sideline, and nail it 8 times out of 10. Being harder and narrower, would probably force goal kickers to go back to the Ross Conlon / NFL style kick, or even the Mick Cronin / Mal Meninga!! Wouldn't it be great.
Submitted by christine on
coach you tipped souths , I didn't see that one coming
Submitted by a on
Where is Guru we re the one we are most worried about missing a round
Submitted by christine on
guru will turn he always does
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Christine, you had me 100% anti-Souths and this week makes 4 times out of 6 I've picked South's, and Mark, you had me down as Blue and White and this week makes 4 times out of 6 I've tipped against Canterbury. Go figure
Submitted by Chi Spurga on
Coach:- Sometimes things just stick in ya head, and I remembered these couple of sentences from an article written in early March, quoting Jamie Soward:-
“Then when Wal got injured towards the end of last season I found I was still going to him off the field all the time but on the field it was James Segeyaro and Matt Moylan who I turned to.
“We learned a lot out of having Wal and then not having him and hopefully that puts us in a better position to start this season.
“On a positive note, I learned to really trust Chiko and Moys to steer the team around.”
Changed my thinking of Wallace / Panthers.
Cheers
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I don't want to bag the guy too much. I just dont think he's the right fit, not that I thought Kingston was the best fit.
To me the captain, whether its cricket, footy whatever, is usually your best player. Makes it naturally easy to lead and for others to follow the best. Problem with Penrith is they lack a standout player like that. Soward is their best bet when he returns. Until then I really dont know what they do. Cleary is not one to make big changes so dont see Wallace passing the armband until then. Get back soon Sowie!
Submitted by Coach Potato on
St George right this moment $21 for top 4. Brisbane $2 for top 4. Not much between them streak-wise though. Dragons may even end up with the longer first streak. Will see.
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