Round twenty-five selections

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Brisbane Broncos – Thursday night – Allianz Stadium

The Rabbitohs are playing their home game at the home of the Roosters - I wonder if the Broncos left their gear in the locker rooms from last week. Wayne Bennett has said that he may rest players from this game, but has named an unchanged line-up with just four on the bench. We shall see. Plenty of changes for the Rabbits - the return of Luke and Keary can't come soon enough. Inglis, on the other hand, is kept on ice for the time being. In many ways Luke is almost as important to the Bunnies as Inglis is. So much of their momentum starts with Luke and Inglis is a more dangerous prospect when Luke is on the field. He'll be missed next year (and the Warriors just might become the force we all want them to be). The Broncos/Roosters game last round was near enough to be the best football we've seen this year. Another ten minutes of play and the Broncos probably win that game, and that level is vastly superior to the Bunnies efforts against the Dogs. Granted they could turn it on - a top four finish is beyond them if they don't. I'm with the visitors who, despite the mind games from the coach, can still win the minor premiership this season. Since that stumble against the Sea Eagles their defence appears to be back in order, conceding just 36 points in three games against top eight sides. Souths without Inglis are much more defendable - the Broncos can tackle their way to victory.

Verdict – Broncos by 4

Result - Broncos 47 defeated Rabbitohs 12

Manly Sea Eagles vs Sydney Roosters – Friday night – Brookvale Oval

The Sea Eagles could easily surprise me (and I am cursed on Fridays) but I feel like their campaign has flared brightly and is now fading out. Two weeks ago they just got past the Raiders - a form line that looks less impressive with each passing day. Last week they lost to the Eels. Now if that was a cold wet night at Parramatta Stadium I could cop that, but when Manly are going well they don't lose Sunday afternoon games at Brookvale to sub-standard teams. Note that the Chooks beat the Eels just two weeks ago (after an early fright). No-one replaces Jared Waerea-Hargreaves but Sam Moa returns in the nick of time. Pearce is a loss too...at club level. Jackson Hastings gets a chance to shine and he'll relish the chance. He might look like he should be flying spitfires for the British Air Force during WWII, but his Dad was a bit of a hero of mine so I'll forgive the hairy little buggar. Willie Mason is back for the Sea Eagles, but Matt Ballin is out. His stable presence in the middle will be missed. The Chooks are chasing their third successive J.J. Giltinan Shield. Hunger games - the Roosters look hungrier.

Verdict – Roosters by 2

Result - Roosters 46 defeated Sea Eagles 10

Parramatta Eels vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday afternoon – Pirtek Stadium

Given that a fair portion of the Eels salary cap is in San Francisco (Hayne), Warrington (Sandow) and injured (Watmough) they're doing okay. Of course, their salary cap was bigger than everyone else this year...and they're not making the finals. Let's give them a pass mark...barely. Assuming I'm right on Thursday night (and that's an outrageous assumption) the Sharks can move into the top four with a win on Saturday. They've won 6 of their last 7, with their only loss that baffling display against the Storm when they forgot to play football. They won't forget again. Better team...in form...more to play for. Up Up Cronulla.

Verdict – Sharks by 4

Result - Sharks 35 defeated Eels 28

Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Saturday afternoon – Hunter Stadium

The Knights enjoyed winning so much in round 23 they surprised everyone but Potato Man and won again. They're at big odds for a three-peat, but this is their old boys game, and this is a game they rarely lose. You would think their current coach, an old boy himself these days, can get his boys up for one more win this season. I think so anyway. Those leading tipping comps would be mad to follow me in here. The Bulldogs were in the sort of form that can win a premiership last weekend. A top four finish isn't beyond their reach either, but I'm a sucker for traditions and it's the Novacastrians for mine. A rare glimmer of happiness for a club that hasn't had much to be glimmering about in recent times. Note to everyone: if the Knights do win they'll hit the turps with the old boys on Saturday night. Keep that in mind when the Knights face the Panthers a week later.

Verdict – Knights by 2

Result - Bulldogs 20 defeated Knights 18

Melbourne Storm vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – AAMI Park

The last three losses by the Storm have been to teams outside of finals contention (Knights, Tigers and Warriors) - no wonder Craig Bellamy gets cranky. Melbourne are one team that (usually) bounce back strongly from a poor performance. Given their ladder position they'll need this win if they want a precious home game in week one of the finals. Is that enough? I say yes...tentatively. I'm expecting a strong start from the purple machine, and their defence is willing enough to hold out the Cowboys who'll be storming home late. A Cooper Cronk field goal in the 74th minute will prove the difference. I'm getting very specific - most of you just want me to get it right. A frustrating loss for the Cowboys, leaving the battle for the minor premiership a race in two.

Verdict – Storm by 1

Result - Storm 14 defeated Cowboys 6

Wests Tigers vs New Zealand Warriors – Sunday afternoon – Campbelltown Stadium

The timing of the Farah announcement makes some sense, giving their club captain a chance to farewell his fans at a traditional home venue on a Sunday afternoon. Surely the Tigers rise up and perform given the circumstance. As for the Warriors...Sheesh! If they were a dog I'd be calling the vet. I'll come up with some sort of Tigers by 39+ betting option for this game - then watch Robbie Farah miss a conversion in the 80th minute which will almost certainly cost me a collect. That will hurt - let's hope the last Tigers try is right under the posts.

Verdict – Tigers by 38

Result - Tigers 50 defeated Warriors 16

Gold Coast Titans vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Sunday afternoon – CBus Super Stadium

Dave Taylor, undefeated as a playmaker in the NRL, is likely to keep that record intact. The Henry reforms from last week were short-lived, with Taylor back in the second-row to add some size to the Titans pack. Bird and James are out so he'll need to put in - the Dragons starting backrow of Frizell, Thompson and Merrin will make sure of that. The Titans, despite the win last week, are still in contention for the spoon. That's a reasonable motivation, but the Dragons have bigger fish to fry and play for. If the cards fall the way I've predicted the Dragons can seal a finals berth with a victory. A contest that could surprise to the upside - keep a sneaky eye on it in case we get a game of football out of this.

Verdict – Dragons by 10

Result - Titans 28 defeated Dragons 26

Canberra Raiders vs Penrith Panthers – Monday night – GIO Stadium

Mathematically these sides could still finish last, but mathematically I could wake up underneath Scarlett Johannson tomorrow. It would make things interesting (especially for Ms Thinker) but it's not going to freakin happen. So what possible motivation do these teams have? This is the Raiders last home game of the season. The Panthers get to play their last home game of the season next week. That's all I've got. I'll take the home team...in this round and the next.

Verdict – Raiders by 6

Result - Raiders 34 defeated Panthers 18

Wally Lewis - round twenty-five selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • Rabbitohs vs BRONCOS
  • Sea Eagles vs ROOSTERS
  • Eels vs SHARKS
  • Knights vs BULLDOGS
  • STORM vs Cowboys
  • TIGERS vs Warriors
  • Titans vs DRAGONS
  • RAIDERS vs Panthers

William Hill betting promotion - round 25

Sydney Roosters to beat Manly Sea Eagles (Friday night) - $2.50 (Maximum bet is $25)

Bet now (gamble responsibly): http://partners.affiliatesunited.com.au/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_10302b_1152

Comments

Coach Potato's picture

...or Cowboys lose, their streak of one game is scrubbed and they are back to 15 with Broncos. Neither can catch Roosters on 16. Probably more like it.

a's picture

Cowboys are 3rd and will be staying on 3rd

Coach Potato's picture

Really, how outrageous for the boneheads at NRL HQ to think up an idea to celebrate failed attempt after failed attempt, concluding with the latest failed attempt which if not for these boneheads paying $30M debt, plus an unknown amount in recent receivership baggage, blindly overlooking huge salary cap breaches over recent years, and harbouring on the face of it, serious criminal activity amongst the player ranks. Let's throw a frikkin party !!

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gj0Rz-uP4Mk

Coach Potato's picture

Really, how outrageous for the boneheads at NRL HQ to think up an idea to celebrate failed attempt after failed attempt, concluding with the latest failed attempt which if not for these boneheads paying $30M debt, plus an unknown amount in recent receivership baggage, blindly overlooking huge salary cap breaches over recent years, and harbouring on the face of it, serious criminal activity amongst the player ranks. Let's throw a frikkin party !!

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gj0Rz-uP4Mk

a's picture

It out of Broncos or Roosters for minor premreship

Coach Potato's picture

... And means week 1 will be either Broncos v Cowboys, or Roosters v Cowboys and neither @ Townsville

Coach Potato's picture

It's just up to the 'almost cant be jumped' St George vs the 'Last game Farah's' Wests as to whether the top 8 finishes on 28 or 26. One game.

Some were talkin' as much as 30. Most thinkin' good ol' 28. Couldn't hear any 26's though. Yours truly excepted.

Coach Potato's picture

Seems incredible that whatever the result tomorrow night, that the bottom 3 will be tied on a massive 20 points each. Just 6 points from the top 8.

Even more incredible is the very real possibility that the spoon will go to a team on 22 points, and possibly only 4 points behind 8th spot.

a's picture

I hope Cowboys play Roosters in the 1st week

Baggy_Gee's picture

With the Broncos/Roosters out in front at the end of the season on a possible 38, 8th on a paltry 26 and the spooners on wither 20 or 22, is this an indication that the salary cap is evening out the playing field?

Coach Potato's picture

Wildly inconsistent form from lots of teams, mixed with the perennial over-influence of refs and video refs including the obligatory rewriting of the rulebook mid- season. Lots of games mid-season where teams came back / or were allowed to come back from nowhere. Biggest worry for me is not the refs but the players. Shocking to watch replay after replay and see the manner in which tries were let in with games on the line. You can still pick the losers of games simply by seeing which team's wingers choose to defend their goal line, 15m in from an unmarked opponent.

Back to inconsistency, one year ago Penrith start the season as favourite for the spoon, but with injuries everywhere, come within seconds at Brookvale of settint up a chance at the minor premiership. Still finish 4th and fight admirably in the finals series, downing the Roosters in a win that will go down in folklore.

One year on, experts pencil the Panthers in for a top 4 spot, and just to be disagreeable, here they are back with a great shot at the spoon.

Let's hope people have them down for the spoon again next year.

Johnny Ray's picture

Dragons are on 25 plus points, Sea Eagles are on minus 36 points meaning if Dragons lose to Tigers next week by 20 points and Sea Eagles beat Sharks by 40 points, Dragons will still get in top eight with a one point advantage. Mathematically speaking then the Sea Eagles need to win by shitload of points. Knowing them bastards will probably do it too knocking Sharks from top four spot to fifth meaning they will have to played them again following week in finals. Dude as much as I hate Manly that would actually be so awesome to see ! Do it Tooves ... ;-D

Johnny Ray's picture

Shit another fissure in time space continuum ! I have got to stop doing maths so late at night ! Right future Johnny Ray if another Pterodactyl wearing bowler hat, monocle and smoking pipe flies in here you're cleaning it up ! This is all your fault ... :-(

a's picture

Manly will not make the finals yes

Steel Panther's picture

You talk about inconsistency Coach. At least I can say my team is consistent if I count having 50 points put on them two weeks in a row. Last week against the Cowboys was bad enough but having the bottom side score 50 points against you is humiliating. Sublime a few weeks back against the Storm and sitting in 4th on the ladder to now in with a shot of picking up the wooden spoon. All part of "supporting" the Warriors. I said they wouldn't win another game once Johnson got injured and they are proving me right.

a's picture

Also steel you team scored 162 weeks in a row

a's picture

sorry 16 2 weeks in a row

a's picture

Guess what Panther and Knohts are playing for next week

Coach Potato's picture

Fun?

Johnny Ray's picture

Cookies ?

The Thinker's picture

If the Sharks win by 4 points or less in round 26, they'll finish in the top four with a negative for and against. No team has made the top eight (let alone top four) with a negative differential this decade.

The last team to do so was the Broncos (6th) in 2009.

The Thinker's picture

Evening football fans,

The NRL ladder and tipping comp have been updated. Tigerholic is making a one-act affair of this at the business end. He top-scored again with 7 from 8, but had some company in The King and Shanghai.

Still a fair contest for a podium finish and a prize, but the only way Tiger can lose from here is if he gets trapped in a phone booth with no internet access or something.

The preview and tips for the final round of the regular NRL season will be posted on Wednesday. Be aware that tipping, in this competition, progresses through to the grand final.

All the best

Baggy_Gee's picture

Mad Monday Shenanigan's?

Johnny Ray's picture

" Still a fair contest for a podium finish and a prize, but the only way Tiger can lose from here is if he gets trapped in a phone booth with no internet access or something ... " https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FAU_Y4CdNsA :-(

a's picture

Tiger probably will win

Coach Potato's picture

You have to agree there's serious integrity issues when a player is charged with a high tackle by the review panel, but not put on report on the field, not even penalised - at a pretty important stage of the game. At the time, the whole Canberr team celebrate like their first Grand Final, but then the next day the player involved accepts he was guilty without an second thought.

Austin gets an earlier penalty for running into Will Smith and falling down.

This game's got some serious integrity issues.

Johnny Boney's picture

Yeah I should I'll tell Thinker next year to put me in the tipping comp.

Johnny Boney's picture

Yeah I should I'll tell Thinker next year to put me in the tipping comp.

Johnny Boney's picture

Yeah I should I'll tell Thinker next year to put me in the tipping comp.

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