Round twenty-three selections

North Queensland Cowboys vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Thursday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

After a fairly unpredictable round of football I'm turning to the form from previous head-to- head clashes where appropriate this round. In round six the Cowboys travelled to one of their least favourite locations (ANZ Stadium) and humbled the Bunnies 30-12. To be fair the Bunnies were without Adam Reynolds that night, but they've lost the man who slotted in for Reynolds in that game (Glenn Stewart) this time around. The Cowboys are close enough to full strength, with Tautau Moga their only casualty at this stage of the season. The Rabbits record away from home in season 2015 is far from flattering. Since their round one demolition of the Broncos in the opening game of the season, they've won just 2 from 8 on the road. One of those wins was at a neutral ground (SCG) and the other was against the Titans. Meanwhile the Cowboys have won six of their last seven at home. Any game with Thurston and Inglis on the paddock at the time is worthy of your eyeballs. Don't get caught out by the early round 23 start.

Verdict – Cowboys by 4

Result - Rabbitohs 31 defeated Cowboys 18

Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

Tapering? Does anyone taper anymore? Could this explain the Broncos back-to-back losses? Perhaps not, but if you’re going to lose two games in a row it’s much better now than in September. During the two week ‘taper’ from the Broncos the Dragons have scored 82 points – that’s not bad, and a lot better than the 20 points they managed in the three games prior to that. Does it mean the Dragons have found there mojo? I doubt it – the 82 points were against the Knights and the Warriors, while the 20 points were against teams in the top eight. Even if the Broncos taper their season away they’ll still be in the top eight. Another good looking game of football though. A big Thursday night game followed by a big Friday night game – it’s the future…today.

Verdict – Broncos by 4

Result - Broncos 32 defeated Dragons 6

Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday afternoon – Campbelltown Stadium

They can’t all be good games I suppose. The Tigers have probably avoided the dreaded spoon this season but a win at Campbelltown all but guarantees that. They were great to watch on Monday night and they should be able to carry that form through. The less said about the Knights the better. Back the overs in the total points betting market – providing the weather plays nice it’s the easiest way to make a hard living this weekend.

Verdict – Tigers by 8

Result - Knights 24 defeated Tigers 18

Penrith Panthers vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – Pepper Stadium

Woof! What a pooch of a game. Hats off to the faithful few at Pepper Stadium on Saturday night – I suspect you want to be there more than either of the teams on the field. The Warriors have travelled to Sydney just once in the last three months, for a 20-0 loss to the Roosters. The Warriors can’t make the eight and can’t run last. The Panthers can’t make the eight either but last is a possibility. That is the only motivation I can find.

Verdict – Panthers by 2

Result - Panthers 24 defeated Warriors 10

Sydney Roosters vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium

Last week I told you I couldn't possibly tip the Eels based on their previous woeful display. They were woeful again, but it was still good enough to get the points over the Panthers. That level of football is an entirely different level of football to what they'll need to compete with the Chooks. The Roosters are on the fringe of the top two and could easily find themselves there by the end of this round. That impressive points-differential could even earn them another minor premiership. The Roosters are like a night out with Footy Chick, while the Eels are like a night out with The Thinkers' crazy uncle. Take Footy Chick....and the Roosters.

Verdict – Roosters by 20

Result - Roosters 28 defeated Eels 18

Canberra Raiders vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday afternoon – GIO Stadium

I have never doubted the Sea Eagles backline, which is probably the best in the competition, but I’ve always doubted their forwards. I’m not doubting anymore – Trbojevic is a serious player for years to come, Starling has found his feet and Brenton Lawrence is back on the paddock. Their trip to the capital is well-timed, as the Raiders finals hopes faded with the Monday night loss to the Tigers. We'll see 70+ points scored at GIO this weekend, but Manly will score most of them.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 30

Result - Sea Eagles 26 defeated Raiders 24

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – Central Coast Stadium

A number of clubs are running the ruler over Moses Mbye right now…and with good reason. Talented playmakers don’t grow on trees – he’s talented, he’s eloquent and he’s a clean-skin. It’s an early call but the team that secures his next contract will be very pleased with themselves. He’s a Queenslander too, before those desperates in NSW start getting their hopes up. The Titans are the desperates in Queensland, at least they should be. If the Knights score a (somewhat) unlikely victory against the Tigers on Saturday, the Titans could spring into action. I said ‘could’. Des Hasler needs to keep his side firing, or risk losing a finals slot to his old club.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 13

Result - Bulldogs 36 defeated Titans 14

Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm – Monday night – Remondis Stadium

Some assumptions here, but if the Cowboys beat the Rabbitohs on Thursday the Sharks are in the top four with a win on Monday. The only team that’s beaten them since round 12 are the Sea Eagles…and that form is looking okay right now. The Storm have struggled away from camp purple this season. Their only away wins have been against the Dragons, Eels, Panthers and Raiders – and some of those wins were quite some time ago. The Sharks are better than that, and the Sharks are the only team in the competition that want to play at Remondis Stadium on a Monday night.

Verdict – Sharks by 4

Result - Storm 30 defeated Sharks 2

Wally Lewis - round twenty-three selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • COWBOYS vs Rabbitohs
  • BRONCOS vs Dragons
  • TIGERS vs Knights
  • PANTHERS vs Warriors
  • ROOSTERS vs Eels
  • Raiders vs SEA EAGLES
  • BULLDOGS vs Titans
  • SHARKS vs Storm

Comments

a's picture

Cowboys will beat Warriors hands down

Coach Potato's picture

Flash back to week 13 then highlight, click cut, then paste ....paste a bit more

I'm wondering if I should reveal, just yet, my formula which selects the Premier in 3 by regular seasons end. (Yes, before the finals begin, possibly earlier).

Notable commentary:

Submitted by Footy chick on Thu, 04/06/2015 - 1:35pm

I'm in Coach.
Show us what you've got!

Submitted by Wally Lewis on Thu, 04/06/2015 - 6:50pm

Me too Count.

You may recall our tutorial earlier in the season where we discussed the hypothesis that to finish in the top 4 a team required to have their three best streaks totalling 10 or more games, single games not counting in the score. Also a team with 4 streaks of say, 4...3...2..and 2 would still only score 9. The last one not counting. That's just the rule.

The Premiers theory takes this analysis one step further. The assumption is that to be crowned champion NRL team, you need to have a streak score in the top 3 come round 26. A streak score outside the top 3 just doesn't translate to winning the big one. Here, I go back as far as that vintage year of 2003. Nice note to finish on I thought. Tell me if you think my hypothesis shows as confirmed or disproven?

2014
Sydney 13
Canterbury 12
South's 11 **** Premiers
Manly 10
Penrith 10

Manly (2nd) Penrith (4th) but neither in top 3 streaks. Canterbury (7th) but 2nd in streaks.

2013
Sydney 16 **** Premiers
South's 14
Melbourne 14

Manly finish 4th, but only with a streak score of 11

2012
Canterbury 15
Melbourne 12 **** Premiers
Souths 12
Manly 12

2011
Melbourne 17
Brisbane 16
Manly 13 **** Premiers

2010
St George 11 **** Premiers
Penrith 11
Gold Coast 11

Sydney finish 6th, but with only streak score of 9

2009
St George 14
Canterbury 13
Gold Coast 12
Melbourne 8 **** Premiers

The only year in recent times that didn't fit the formula. Even 8th placed grand finalist Parra had a better streak score of 9.

2008
Manly 14 **** Premiers
Melbourne 12
Cronulla 10
Sydney 10

2007
Melbourne 19 **** Premiers
Manly 16
Nth Qld 11

2006
Melbourne 18
Canterbury 12
Brisbane 10 **** Premiers
Newcastle 10

2005
St George 15
Wests 13 **** Premiers
Brisbane 12

Parramatta win the minor premiership with an incredibly low streak score of 10. Not in the top 3. Tigers finish 4th, but with 2nd best streak score. Cowboys finish 5th, but with only a streak score of 9.

2004
Canterbury 16 **** Premiers
Sydney 13
Brisbane 11
Penrith 11

Roosters take the minor premiership, but Canterbury easily the best streak score.

2003
Penrith 17 **** Premiers
Canberra 14
Sydney 12
Canterbury 12

Panthers need to win the last round to secure the minor premiership but compare their score to the Roosters.

..... So this year's Streak Table
1. Cowboys. 15. (Max. 18)
2. Brisbane. 15. (Max. 15)
3. Sydney. 14. (Max 17)
4. Cronulla. 11. (Max 11)
5. St George. 10. (Max 11)
6. Souths. 9. (Max 10)
7. Warriors. 8. (Max. 9)
8. Melbourne. 7. (Max. 10)
9. Manly. 7. (Max 10)
10. Canterbury 7. (Max. 8)

The top three can't change, so looks like its one of the three. If I'm wrong, then that's nothing new. Would need to be a team that changed the patterns of history if was one of the rest.

The Thinker's picture

Evening football fans.

The NRL ladder and tipping comp have been updated - best score this round was 6 from 8 from quite a lot of you, including Tigerholic who has extended his lead at the top.

I'll be in Sydney for the next three days or so....for a weekend of adultivity with Ms Thinker and no kids. At some point I'll come up for air and get the preview and tips for round 24 published.

All the best

Coach Potato's picture

Is sex doing strange things to The Thinker's brain? What part of the next few days is classed as the weekend??

Thinker needs to come up for air and stay up a little while.

Coach Potato's picture

..the only team I could find that has overruled the streak theory being the Storm. Maybe it's still 4?

The Thinker's picture

Coach,
We've got football games on Thursdays, Fridays and Mondays at the moment. It's very confusing.

Coach Potato's picture

Oh I see. Only Tuesday and Wednesday free of footy - "The Football Wife's Weekend"

a's picture

Thursday night is the next game

mark ashford's picture

Hi Christine
Thanks for the update mate. I hope those treatments give you some relief.
With only 3 of the regular rounds to go I too am not looking forward to the off season. I don't understand gridiron and don't like cricket so it's old movies and re-runs of the Waltons for me.
"a" I love my Broncos but have a feeling for a Roosters/Cowboys GF with the Cowboys to prevail.
I'm steadily slipping down the slippery slope of our ladder but hope I'm right with this one.
Thinker enjoy that break or should it be Mrs Thinker enjoy getting your old man away from his predictions albeit for a little while.
Last one....Coach can the Broncs win it?

Coach Potato's picture

Bennett being the most influential person on or off the field for the last few decades, hard to ignore their chances. They virtually have three weeks rest before being a game away from a preliminary final - a home preliminary final, I might add.

Its weird, they are on the doorstep of a minor premiership, but can you honestly say they have proven themselves too good against the best? Next three games Roosters, Souths, Melbourne could be a killer draw. To me, that feels as if its a 7 week-long finals series.

Could they be like South's and Dragons who repeatedly failed to perform under semi final intensity before finally breaking through? Time will tell. Problem for Bennett I think is juggling rest for players while trying to gain momentum heading into semis.

Johnny Boney's picture

Hey Tonibet, took the quiz, no wonder it's the greatest NRL quiz because it is actually great.
My result was 7/10 which means that i'm a diehard.

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