Round twenty-three selections

North Queensland Cowboys vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Thursday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

After a fairly unpredictable round of football I'm turning to the form from previous head-to- head clashes where appropriate this round. In round six the Cowboys travelled to one of their least favourite locations (ANZ Stadium) and humbled the Bunnies 30-12. To be fair the Bunnies were without Adam Reynolds that night, but they've lost the man who slotted in for Reynolds in that game (Glenn Stewart) this time around. The Cowboys are close enough to full strength, with Tautau Moga their only casualty at this stage of the season. The Rabbits record away from home in season 2015 is far from flattering. Since their round one demolition of the Broncos in the opening game of the season, they've won just 2 from 8 on the road. One of those wins was at a neutral ground (SCG) and the other was against the Titans. Meanwhile the Cowboys have won six of their last seven at home. Any game with Thurston and Inglis on the paddock at the time is worthy of your eyeballs. Don't get caught out by the early round 23 start.

Verdict – Cowboys by 4

Result - Rabbitohs 31 defeated Cowboys 18

Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

Tapering? Does anyone taper anymore? Could this explain the Broncos back-to-back losses? Perhaps not, but if you’re going to lose two games in a row it’s much better now than in September. During the two week ‘taper’ from the Broncos the Dragons have scored 82 points – that’s not bad, and a lot better than the 20 points they managed in the three games prior to that. Does it mean the Dragons have found there mojo? I doubt it – the 82 points were against the Knights and the Warriors, while the 20 points were against teams in the top eight. Even if the Broncos taper their season away they’ll still be in the top eight. Another good looking game of football though. A big Thursday night game followed by a big Friday night game – it’s the future…today.

Verdict – Broncos by 4

Result - Broncos 32 defeated Dragons 6

Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday afternoon – Campbelltown Stadium

They can’t all be good games I suppose. The Tigers have probably avoided the dreaded spoon this season but a win at Campbelltown all but guarantees that. They were great to watch on Monday night and they should be able to carry that form through. The less said about the Knights the better. Back the overs in the total points betting market – providing the weather plays nice it’s the easiest way to make a hard living this weekend.

Verdict – Tigers by 8

Result - Knights 24 defeated Tigers 18

Penrith Panthers vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – Pepper Stadium

Woof! What a pooch of a game. Hats off to the faithful few at Pepper Stadium on Saturday night – I suspect you want to be there more than either of the teams on the field. The Warriors have travelled to Sydney just once in the last three months, for a 20-0 loss to the Roosters. The Warriors can’t make the eight and can’t run last. The Panthers can’t make the eight either but last is a possibility. That is the only motivation I can find.

Verdict – Panthers by 2

Result - Panthers 24 defeated Warriors 10

Sydney Roosters vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium

Last week I told you I couldn't possibly tip the Eels based on their previous woeful display. They were woeful again, but it was still good enough to get the points over the Panthers. That level of football is an entirely different level of football to what they'll need to compete with the Chooks. The Roosters are on the fringe of the top two and could easily find themselves there by the end of this round. That impressive points-differential could even earn them another minor premiership. The Roosters are like a night out with Footy Chick, while the Eels are like a night out with The Thinkers' crazy uncle. Take Footy Chick....and the Roosters.

Verdict – Roosters by 20

Result - Roosters 28 defeated Eels 18

Canberra Raiders vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday afternoon – GIO Stadium

I have never doubted the Sea Eagles backline, which is probably the best in the competition, but I’ve always doubted their forwards. I’m not doubting anymore – Trbojevic is a serious player for years to come, Starling has found his feet and Brenton Lawrence is back on the paddock. Their trip to the capital is well-timed, as the Raiders finals hopes faded with the Monday night loss to the Tigers. We'll see 70+ points scored at GIO this weekend, but Manly will score most of them.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 30

Result - Sea Eagles 26 defeated Raiders 24

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – Central Coast Stadium

A number of clubs are running the ruler over Moses Mbye right now…and with good reason. Talented playmakers don’t grow on trees – he’s talented, he’s eloquent and he’s a clean-skin. It’s an early call but the team that secures his next contract will be very pleased with themselves. He’s a Queenslander too, before those desperates in NSW start getting their hopes up. The Titans are the desperates in Queensland, at least they should be. If the Knights score a (somewhat) unlikely victory against the Tigers on Saturday, the Titans could spring into action. I said ‘could’. Des Hasler needs to keep his side firing, or risk losing a finals slot to his old club.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 13

Result - Bulldogs 36 defeated Titans 14

Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm – Monday night – Remondis Stadium

Some assumptions here, but if the Cowboys beat the Rabbitohs on Thursday the Sharks are in the top four with a win on Monday. The only team that’s beaten them since round 12 are the Sea Eagles…and that form is looking okay right now. The Storm have struggled away from camp purple this season. Their only away wins have been against the Dragons, Eels, Panthers and Raiders – and some of those wins were quite some time ago. The Sharks are better than that, and the Sharks are the only team in the competition that want to play at Remondis Stadium on a Monday night.

Verdict – Sharks by 4

Result - Storm 30 defeated Sharks 2

Wally Lewis - round twenty-three selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • COWBOYS vs Rabbitohs
  • BRONCOS vs Dragons
  • TIGERS vs Knights
  • PANTHERS vs Warriors
  • ROOSTERS vs Eels
  • Raiders vs SEA EAGLES
  • BULLDOGS vs Titans
  • SHARKS vs Storm

Comments

Coach Potato's picture

I bet there's people who see this page and bat off over Chick's comments. How hot is she (whoever she is). I know it's not my stats to blame. I mean, really, that would actually be very, very uncomfortable knowing that people out there were ..... stats-turbating !!

Johnny Ray's picture

That coach or it's me ! Sorry to disappoint you guys but I just bought a Knights Spider-Man shirt and mascot beanie to go with underwear I'm still wearing, shit maybe I should change, there are some stains on here that are beginning to burn their way into my skin and ooooooo I found a pickle ... ;-D

Coach Potato's picture

Just Bullshit penalties, that's all these teams need to get to the Grand Final. I can see a Broncos Souths 80 minute bullshit-fest a long way out.

a's picture

I hope Roosters play bullshit tomrrow

Baggy_Gee's picture

How have the Dragons not scored a point? More ball, less errors, are the Ponies that good defensively tonight? And its just the small things slipping me by atm Coach.

a's picture

Let hope Eels win tomrrow

The Thinker's picture

Footy Chick - nice figure
Coach Potato - nice figures

Coach Potato's picture

No chance a

Baggy_Gee's picture

Thanks for backing the BOYS sort of "a". I understand that the reality of the situation is rather bad/Buckleys of the BOYS getting up, But F&*^ it all, I'm a Parra Fan and here I stand, I can do no other. Time to learn the Team song to belt out tomorrow night.

Tailspin's picture

It's amazing what a bit of ice cream can turn into, couch and thinker, I'm still cracking up over the stats turbating, your one sick dude couch.

Coach Potato's picture

Don't worry Baggy, the Rugby League world is hoping against hope that there's a Parra!!!! (Clap Clap Clap) revival. Just cant see them being better than the best team + a set of crook refs.

a's picture

And I hope Cowboys beat Warriors next week

Coach Potato's picture

Looks like a is doing a lot of hoping lately.

a's picture

Yes I want it to be a Cowboys vs Broncos grand final

Coach Potato's picture

You desperately want to finish 1st even though Sharks are still a chance of finishing 4th, so then having to play them in Week 1?

If I was a Cowboy fan I would be relieved about not winning the minor premiership, knowing that Week 1 won't be against the Sharks.

Coach Potato's picture

They way different sides have taken apart Brisbane and Cowboys in recent weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if they both go out in straight sets

a's picture

Means Cowboys will win next week☺️

a's picture

Roosters do not want Sharks either

Coach Potato's picture

How funny Qld'ers are talking up an all Qld Grand Final. Lucky to get a team into a preliminary final. Broncos last night against a team that chose no halfback was never going to prove anything. DeBelin was piced to play there but he never touched the ball. They played a whole game with one half. Never heard of anything more ridiculous. Next week against the Roosters in Sydney might tell more. Tell everything should I say.

Baggy_Gee's picture

I agree, and even with all the advantage, the Bronco's had more errors and less possession. We'll have to see how it goes against real teams, Sorry Dragons but your teams is decimated by injuries.

a's picture

Cowboys will win next week

Coach Potato's picture

Bell-curve analysis and the ladder.
No I don't mean admiring an imaginary Footy Chick and hole in her stocking.

After 23 rounds the last 4 teams on the ladder are on 18, then two on 20, two on 22, two on 24. It's all wrong. There's too many wins down this end of the ladder. Sharing it amongst themselves far too much. In 107 seasons there's never been anything like this. The bottom placed team has never had so many points after 23 rounds.

Although it looks very very similar to round 23 , 2007. The last five teams were 18...18...18...18...16. Strange part about 2007 was it was only a 25 round season, but still and all - 8th place that year finished with a tally of ............ 24?!!?!!! (So even if there was a round 26, the most 8th place would get to would be 26).

Is that logical? Bet your bottom dollar it is. Too many wins down the bottom and the Bell Curve is right out of whack. It must result in a lower top 8 score. In 2007, on adjustment would have been 26.

For teams that think their Mad Monday has started, they seriously need to think again. A team with the best differential on 26 points is gonna make it. You heard it here first.

Coach Potato's picture

There's an article right now on NRL.com with a headline Panthers end Warriors finals hopes. My god, Warriors are on 22 with 3 games to go. They can still friggin get to 28 FFS, not to mention only needing 26.

I guess you can't really blame footballers and their expert relations for not being such great mathematicians.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Ok burning question, are you a football loving statician Coach? Because that's an amazing look at the top 8. Every year you think 28-30 points will get you there giving you about a 60% win rate. But your saying that a 50% win rate will get you over the line? But where do the Bronco's, Cowboys and Rooster's fit into the bell, I reckon that the 32+ club gets into the really small % which 3/16th isn't.

The Thinker's picture

Baggy,
Not nit-picking....honest

26 points is actually less than 50%

11 wins = 22 pts
2 byes = 4 points

So that's 11 wins from 24 games, making the finals by losing more games than you win....if Coach is right.

I'm sure he's right....mathemagically

Coach Potato's picture

By comparison of the opposite effect, have a look at this year's AFL ladder. Strangely they think 4 points for a win is better than 2, so to help I will adjust their scores back. They also play less games in a season 22 + a bye and they don't get points for a bye, but still, I think I have a point.

The bottom 5 on the AFL ladder if they only got two points for a win would be 12, 10, 7, 6, 6. Sure, so they don't get points for their bye. Let's give them 2 points for that. 14, 12, 9, 8, 8. Still quite low right? Very low. Too low. Not enough wins down the bottom of the ladder. The rest of the wins have to be accounted for somewhere. One guess as to what happens to the top8 score? Correct. The opposite effect. It must go up higher. Winning 50% of your games doesnt cut it in AFL. Currently Richmond sit in 8th spot with 11 wins from 18 games. Thats 50% + 2 games which is big. Their 8th team into the finals this year will need 13 or 14 wins from 22 games.

It's the opposite to what's happening in the NRL, but it's just as logical.

a's picture

Damn Eeks were leading 18-4 and lost

The Thinker's picture

Excellent numbers Coach

This reinforces how even the NRL is as a competition.

In most AFL seasons there are rarely more than 3 genuine premiership contenders. The difference between the very best and the very worst is enormous. Often three is generous, where the reality is probably two. The EPL is much the same.

On Friday night the AFL commentators were suggesting the 4th placed Swans should be embarrassed with their performance, because they let a team running 11th actually offer up some sort of contest.

Leeroy's picture

Got flogged only 40%.!!!!

christine 's picture

not many weeks left now I hate the off season

a's picture

I also hate the off season

Baggy_Gee's picture

Thanks Thinker, I just took 26 rounds, and @ 2 points a round gave you 13 wins. Completely forgot about the byes.

Johnny Ray's picture

I hate off season too but then American Football on so that keeps me going, I don't know if you guys get into it, I wouldn't blame you if you didn't. Dude I'll admit it can be so slow and incredibly boring to watch when compared to league ... ;-D

The Thinker's picture

Another cracking game involving the Raiders - they've lost six games at home this season by 4 points or less.

a's picture

I hope Jayrred Hayne makes it

Coach Potato's picture

Did I say 26? Sorry I meant 30 :p

Johnny Ray's picture

I know a team that loses alot of their games by same margins Thinker. Just can't remember who they are. They must play so bad I've must of blanked them from my memories ... Wa ... War ... Wah ... Waltons ! Yes that's it The Waltons ! Wait, a 1970s American TV Show centred on a rural Virginian farming community during Great Depression plays in Australian rugby league competition ? That can't be it ! Sorry Thinker I can't think who team it is but whoever they are, they're obviously driving me crazy ... ;-D

tonibet's picture

CARN THE DOGGIES!!! (Western Bulldogs that is)
FYI: CARN = "Come On" in AFL speak
(like you didn't know that already)

Coach Potato's picture

Definitely having a strong 2015. Need to turn around form against Feel, Hawthorn, and Geelong next month though.

a's picture

Finals are just 3 rounds away

Coach Potato's picture

Sorry I mean *Freo, silly spell corrected doesn't trust people enough

a's picture

Will Titams win the wooden spoon?

tonibet's picture

^I think you misspelt *TimTams* haha! (actually I prefer *Chit Chats*) lol!
@Coach: In all seriousness, yeah I think the Doggies have as much chance getting through the AFL finals as the Warriors have, their last three games... might win one? Ugh! now I'm depressed... I really do need a chocolate biscuit!

Declan_S's picture

The TimTams? I do hope so 'a', the Knights' last wooden spoon was when I was 9, so thankfully I don't remember it. I hope I never have a wooden spoon season stored in my memory!

a's picture

I tipped Sharks to win tonight

christine 's picture

mark ashford just to update you on my ms I may have to start treatment to block inflammation in a month or so , not looking forward to that I would have to have infusions but I hope they will give me tablets instead

Coach Potato's picture

Can someone explain why panties comes up on your phone when you try and spell Panther ? Any clues Footy Chick?

Coach Potato's picture

Wooden spoons are not to be feared. I actually hope Penrith get it. Look at the Sharks after winning the spoon last year. Look at Roosters after winning in 09. Grand Final following year and haven't looked back. Panthers won it in 01, then made the quickest last to first in history by taking it out in 03.

Nothing beats the spoon for giving a team a good kick up the ass.

Tailspin's picture

Go the storm 12-2 half time, sharky's run is over

Tailspin's picture

Good win by the storm

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