Round five selections

Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Thursday night – Brookvale Oval

The Rabbitohs lose at Brookvale (71%) more often than the Sea Eagles win at Brookvale (66%), but it's the ins and outs for this game that have the visitors as slight favourites. Daly Hyphen-Evans is out with an injury yours truly once suffered (syndesmosis), Buhrer is out again as quickly as he was in, and there's doubts over Matai and Lawrence. It's the Bunnies with the ins that wins - two Burgess brothers (Sam and Tom) and a supporting role in the forwards from the returning Dave Tyrrell. How does Sam bounce back after what looked like a genuinely awful neck injury is anyone's guess, but the big boof did win a Clive Churchill with a fractured head so I expect he'll do just fine.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 2

Result - Rabbitohs 16 defeated Sea Eagles 12

Gold Coast Titans vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – Cbus Super Stadium

It pleases me to see the Titans doing well, but there's doing well and then there's a level above that. Last week reminded us all there are two teams that can play at a level beyond the rest. Hopefully there are three or four teams capable of lifting to those lofty heights. The Titans aren't in that group, but they're near the top of the ladder because they're winning and you can never say never in the NRL. If the Broncos shot all their ducks last week and left nothing behind for this week the Titans win this. Ifs and buts were candy and nuts....as the great Homer J would say. Jack Reek and Corey Oates return, and Oates has a few weeks to get fit and prove to the Queensland selectors he deserves a seat on the Origin bench. Titans captain Nathan Friend is back, and the ever-ascending Ashley Taylor gets to take on his old club. Let's hope the Titans pull a decent crowd through the turnstiles on Friday night, but I still think the Broncos will win this season so they need to be winning games like these.

Verdict – Broncos by 8

Result - Broncos 24 defeated Titans 16

Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday afternoon – AAMI Park

The Melbourne Storm are so short of backs they've resorted to signing an AFL player this week - we won't see Shem Tatupu on Saturday but we're likely to see him soon. Koroibete has been named but won't be playing, so I'll assume Tohu Harris plugs a gap in the centres and Ben Hampton shifts out to the wing...I think. Despite all the deck-chair shuffling in Melbourne, this Knights squad are a bunch of kids. Sure they have a few wiser older heads in their seventeen but the wiser older heads of Smith (Cameron) and Cronk can steer their kids better than Smith (Jeremy) and Mullen. The Storm rarely lose two games in a row, and its even rarer if that second game is played at home. Even rarer still when their opponents haven't beaten anyone at all. Assuming we have dry weather football on Saturday I'm keen on total points overs for those that are remotely interested in such things. Purple reign. Purple reign.

Verdict – Storm by 13

Result - Storm 18 defeated Knights 14

Wests Tigers vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday afternoon – Campbelltown Stadium

Paul Gallen has announced that 2016 will be his final Origin campaign - which is rather presumptious of him. He'll need to stay on the paddock between now and then, and I've a feeling he'll be limping off the field on Saturday. Don't get me wrong, I don't wish injuries upon anybody, but the nicest guy in rugby league has been spending more than his fair share of time in rehab since Stephen Dank got shown the door at Sharks Central. So....how will the Sharks respond when Gallen heads into the tunnel in the 18th minute of this game? I think they're better without him. The quick turnaround from Monday night has me a little concerned but this Sharks backline has points in it, and the Tigers couldn't even jump out of the barriers against the Dragons. That said, I'm pegging this as the game of the round. On season statistics thus far these sides are pretty evenly matched. Once I've finished watching Winx win the Doncaster I'm definitely tuning in for this. The Tigers to give their all, but they're going to need a bigger boat.

Verdict – Sharks by 4

Result - Sharks 34 defeated Tigers 26

North Queensland Cowboys vs St George Illawarra Dragon – Saturday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

The Dragons are winning games with defence...and they have to. In their last four hours of football they've scored just three tries. The Cowboys scored that many against the Broncos just last week, and had another three disallowed. The last time the Cowboys played at home they scored seven tries and kept their opponents scoreless. For the first time this season the Cowboys have to make a change to their roster, with Javid Bowen making his first grade debut with the club his uncle made his own. Benji Marshall returns for the Red V and the Dragons will get their fare share of support at a venue they don't get to visit too often. A fair contest but the Cowboys to pull away at the business end - Thurston is some chance of outscoring the Dragons on his own.

Verdict – Cowboys by 16

Result - Cowboys 36 defeated Dragons 0

Sydney Roosters vs New Zealand Warriors – Sunday afternoon – Central Coast Stadium

Are the Roosters fans great travellers? This could feel like a home game away from home for the Warriors - they'll draw a few Kiwis from the region and most neutral observers would love to see the Roosters remain winless at the foot of the table. Clearly the Warriors haven't set the rugby league world alight but at least their losses to the Tigers, Broncos and Storm were competitive losses. A big win over the Knights is questionable form but they found their mojo in the second half and that could be the shot in the arm they need. As for the Chooks, the narrow loss to the Sea Eagles suggests they're edging nearer to a win, but near enough isn't good enough.

Verdict – Warriors by 1

Result - Warriors 32 defeated Roosters 28

Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers – Sunday afternoon – Pirtek Stadium

I like the look of the Panthers line-up...I really do. Moylan at fullback and Martin in the halves is a looking glass into what should be a successful future. My only concern is that the combinations may take a week or two to bed down, and this weekend they're up against a settled line-up playing with confidence and playing at home. Note that Latimore and Taylor have been added to an extended bench for the Panthers, and if both were definitely playing I could actually tip the visitors. As things stand I'll stick with the Eels at home, but the gambler in me is keen to back the Panthers with the handicap start.

Verdict – Eels by 2

Result - Panthers 20 defeated Eels 18

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Canberra Raiders – Monday night – Belmore Sports Ground

The Dogs lost their first choice fullback and dummy half before the season began...so they're doing okay. The same could be said for the Raiders, who lost their two best halves in round one. At least the Raiders are getting them both back on Monday night. It's a nice looking seventeen the Raiders are taking on the road, and at any other venue I'd give them a chance. Sadly, they're travelling to Belmore, and Belmore will be packed to the gills with blue and white brethren. With the will of the people behind those big Bulldogs forwards (and helping those referees with the 50/50 calls) I can't see anything but a Bulldogs victory. Looks like a game you want to be watching though. The atmosphere at Belmore will leak into your loungerooms...in a good way.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 10

Result - Raiders 22 defeated Bulldogs 8

Wally Lewis - round five selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • Sea Eagles vs RABBITOHS
  • Titans vs BRONCOS
  • STORM vs Knights
  • Tigers vs SHARKS
  • COWBOYS vs Dragons
  • ROOSTERS vs Warriors
  • EELS vs Panthers
  • BULLDOGS vs Raiders

Comments

newbie from perth's picture

See? I told ya I had a guaranteed system for you all!

Just pick the opposite of what I pick and you're good to go. 1 out of 8 last week which means if you followed the "Newbie System" you would've got 7 correct. Awesome!

Coach Potato's picture

Newbie, opposites all the way back to the start - You'd be leading on 21, and I would be somewhere up there on 19.

21 and 19 for taking the teams we thought would lose. Pretty damning stuff.

Johnny Ray's picture

And how far in our everyday life should we apply this opposite theory of yours Newbie From Perth ? Is it only with our sports tips or are you really saying that instead of getting dressed and going to work like a normal decent member of society we should all instead stay home in constant state of undress, watching television and eating chocolate fudge ice cream out of carton using a frozen snickers bar as a spoon because I just want to say that I am way ahead of you there buddy ! Oooo Season Three of Bones is on ... ;- D

Rocket Ryan's picture

Tigerholic I believe your fans want you to post your tips at the same time as the thinker we would all like to see the defending champion leading the way I am sure with your guidence coach pototo and newbie won't have to resort to opposite tipping

Baggy_Gee's picture

Thinker, how much difference is there between a rolled/sprained ankle and syndesmosis? I thought it was just a commentary thing to make it sound more professional.

christine's picture

Coach i'm not on the tipping ladder so my tips don't really count but i'm allowed by the Thinker to post comments & tips or thoughts in the comment section just like anyone else as a way of joining in which is what I've done for a few years now .

Baggy_Gee's picture

Right then on to tips,

Rabbits - By more than the thinker thinks. We saw the Bulldogs with size and direction put up a massive score on Manly in the first week, and after back to back losses (one to the Bulldogs) I think that the Rabbits with the return of Burgess Inc. will be straight, hard, and allow their backs to score tries, Almost a cricket score, but Bunnies by 24.

Broncos - As said above, there are a few levels in this competition, the Warriors/Knights are the bottom, Cowboys/Broncos (how that hurts to admit) are the top and pretty much every other team falls into line under them. Also winning a close one, gives you a boost for recovery so I think that the Ponies shouldn't be far off their best for a Friday night out on the coast. Unless they send out the reggies and have a Friday night out on the Coast.

Storm - I was on this one almost as quick as I am to back the BOYS. Knights had a good fighting draw with the Raiders, then coped a pasting across the ditch. The Storm were out of sorts, and moving Harris back in from the 4 to the 12 is one of those things that will make this Storm team hard to put down on Saturday afternoon. Oh and their home, don't lose too many back-to-back games at home does Mr. Bellamy

Tigers - Change of heart, thinking about the Gallen effect, someone pointed out that they other guys in the Sharks pack step up when Gal is out and this might blunt their effectivness. We all know the usually the Tigers have points in them, and this week I think that they will have just a few more points then the Sharks.

Cowboys - Need I look at the team? Oh yes the usual suspects, playing at home, check, extra day turn around, check, potentially higher than usual martyr complex after Friday, check. The only people that will beat the Cowboys is themselves, 2 wins to the Dragons will see them in the hunt, but if the Cows get a few bum calls it might turn the game on it's head. As it stands, Cowboys by a decent margin.

Roosters - I know I'm mad, Easter does that to you in hospitality, but when I read same 17 for both teams, you have to think about mentality. 4 losses and a bad call for the Roosters vs breaking a 11 game loosing streak and getting some form. Then you add who they played and the location, I would not be surprised and over the moon if the Warriors could get a second win here, but fate and history seems to be against them.

Eels - Like I was going to say anything different. It will be a great game at home, players have stepped up, and even with one of the foundation stones of the team laid up the BOYS have proven that they are top eight contenders. Moylan being back is going to make it difficult, but if Manu or Moeroa get through the line with eyes on a try, he may just be lacking the certainty to make the tackle. GO THE BOYS

Bulldogs - We all know that halves need good space behind their forwards to do their magic, and the halves in this game on both sides have that touch of magic. After what the Bulldogs did to the Bunnies pack last week, I think that the space advantage will go to the Bulldogs, and therefore the win. But Austin and Sezer have that flair and style to turn this game upside down, but again 3 weeks off for both, might take a while to get their feet going again.

christine's picture

Coach just so you know i'm usually in 2 tipping comps that are keeping count of my points one is an inhouse comp which I have won a few times the other is talking sport with graham hughes , peter tunks & juggling 3 comps at once when you have ms isn't easy & I did say I won't tip against ''a " so I just post my comments in the comments section which i'm allowed to do .

christine's picture

Coach if it keeps you happy I will posts my tips in the comment section before each round kicks off but i'm not on the tipping ladder so my tips & points don't count but I will do it just to join in so it doesn't upset you .

christine's picture

Coach I don't have to prove anything to you or anyone else , I know how many points i'm on so just stick to doing your stats .

The Thinker's picture

Baggy,
You are pretty much right....in the good old days it was called an ankle sprain. The magic sponge would probably keep you on the field back then.

A grade 3 ankle sprain though.....no amount of strapping or magic sponge will keep you on the field with that....unless you're Mario Fenech.

Johnny Ray's picture

Awesome. Man I don't know about you dude but judging by links I've been getting lately on my Facebook page I must spend an inordinate amount of time on here looking at everybody posts . Just now NZ Sky TV ad popped up with, "Want to keep up with Women's Cricket T20 Tournament ? Click link below !" Hahaha Sky TV ... always the comedian ! Anyway let's get on with this week's picks ...

Sea Eagles
Broncos
Storm
Sharks
Cowboys
Roosters
Eels
Raiders

Awesome. Like always thanks alot Thinker. Thanks alot Thinker's little Helper. Thanks alot everybody and congratulations again to Rick and The King for making it to top of ladder last week. Good luck everybody with all your picks. Laters peeps ! ;-D

Dragons fanboy 2007's picture

Hello everyone, my tips are:

Sea Eagles by 8- Sea Eagles here. Sam Burgess is back for Rabbitohs which'll give them extra strength and potency in the forward line but I think Sea Eagles at home will edge out the Rabbitohs.

Titans by 2- Titans have done well and they have there tails up. I'm tipping them to upset the Broncos here and boost there confidence even more.

Storm by 20- Storm to smash Newcastle here.

Sharks by 10- Sharks to get the win here.

Dragons by 4- Not tipping against my team for this game. But I'm not overly confident.

Roosters by 10- Roosters to finally get their first win here.

Parramatta by 14- Parramatta have just been too good on defence in the last few weeks. Expecting the same here.

Bulldogs by 16- Bulldogs will be too good and too strong at Belmore here.

Thanks Thinker and the crew and cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!

Coach Potato's picture

Chill pill or box of, Christine, post what you want. Was just a bit of fun if you didn't realise. Ouch. My tablets earphones are hurting from all that shouting !

The_NRL_Whisperer's picture

G'day Thinker. Just wondering why I don't appear on the tipping ladder, presently at 21/32. Cheers.

The_NRL_Whisperer's picture

Correction, 19/32 at present.

The_NRL_Whisperer's picture

Round 5 Tips:
Rabbitohs
Broncos
Storm
Sharks
Cowboys
Roosters
Eels
Bulldogs

a's picture

The_NRL_Whisperer I am keeping a ladder on the people who are not on the ladder

Coach Potato's picture

Zero memory cells left there Thinker. Stick with the soft drink mate, you're a spent unit. Two teams at a level above the rest huh? Just to remind, Panthers and Eels both outplayed your so-called best only a week ago.

The Thinker's picture

Coach :-)

Yes they did.

Panthers are $26 to win the premiership this season, same price as a team who haven't won a game yet. If you're right, and you might be, feel free to gamble accordingly (but responsibly).

Actually, $3 for the Panthers to make the eight looks pretty good.

mark ashford's picture

Hey Thinker...did you manage to catch a fish?
Coach maybe the Cows and Broncs were thinking about their GF rematch rather than what was at hand. Just a thought.
Scenario from last weekend. Pete Wallace stays down, it did look like he was seriously concussed. Panthers get a replacement and time to reset their line. Dragons attack repelled and Panthers win.
Your thoughts Coach or anyone?
My picks for round 5
Rabbits
Broncs
Storm
Sharks
Cowboys
Roosters (surely it's time!)
Eels (just)
Bulldogs
Johnnie Ray you are a true asset to this site, Chocolate fudge icecream eaten with a frozen snickers bar. Classic mate...just classic.
Good luck to all The Thinkers followers in round 5.
Gotta go to the supermarket to get some frozen goodies...later.

Coach Potato's picture

Remind you of a bit further back. Season 2003 started L L W L.

Coach Potato's picture

Mark, at a seaside suburban ground, a guy kicks off kicking the ball as high as he can into the thin salty air only for it to land on a dime, 25cm in from the sideline. That's how close Penrith were, and how lucky Dragons were.

Coach Potato's picture

Hey Thinker, stick this in your friggin scrapbook. It's the 2003 preseason odds.

SYDNEY ROOSTERS 4.50
THE BULLDOGS 4.50
BRISBANE BRONCOS 6.50
PARRAMATTA EELS 6.50
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS 9.00
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS 11.00
CRONULLA SHARKS 13.00
ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA 15.00
PENRITH PANTHERS 34.00
MELBOURNE STORM 51.00
MANLY SEA EAGLES 51.00
CANBERRA RAIDERS 81.00
NORTH QLD COWBOYS 81.00
SOUTH SYDNEY 101.00
WESTS TIGERS 101.00

Coach Potato's picture

.. then a rough mental calculation of what they were after starting Loss-Loss-Win-Loss.

Now look at this week with Moylan back and playing for the first time in combo with Te Maire Martin.

I reckon the best odds are always where noone's looking.

The Thinker's picture

No need to remind me of 2003 Coach. I backed Luke Priddis to win the Clive Churchill at $31 in that grand final against 'my' team.

Yes....really.

Coach Potato's picture

Yep. Happy not to be at the top. Way down there is good for me.

WILLIAM HILLS 2016 PREMIERSHIP ODDS

Broncos = 4.50
Cowboys = 6.50
Bulldogs = 10.00
Sharks = 11.00
Eels = 11.00
Eagles = 12.00
Storm = 12.00
Warriors = 15.00
Rabbitohs = 15.00
Panthers = 23.00
Raiders = 26.00
Rabbitohs = 26.00
Tigers = 34.00
Dragons = 34.00
Titans = 67.00
Knights = 251.00

Coach Potato's picture

I guess my point is, the favourite at the start of the Melbourne Cup, don't always win it. Ask Michelle Payne.

tigerholic's picture

Giddy Folks
It has taken me a little while to catch up on all of the posts. Coach, what have you done to piss Christine off, Christine I am sure that whatever has ticked you off Coach didn't mean any harm.

Now, I have been trying to stop laughing at Rocket Ryan's comments about me posting my tips early, Rocket you may never know what being the defending champ is all about but I do admire your sass.

I will post my tips tonight, working Monday to bloody Friday at present is playing havoc with my footy tips, Christine I am also in 3 tipping comps this year as I was last year and it is difficult to study the form and then get your tips in.

Rocket, I love the challenge from someone who is crowing after creeping one clear of me on the ladder, I am more than happy to coast along in the middle of the pack at this early stage of the season.

"Thinker", can you let us all know during the year with how many hits we have had on your site, would like to compare with the hits that Rocket seems to have suffered.

christine's picture

Coach I knew you were just trying to get a bite from me & it looks like you did , next month i'm busy running around doing things because of my ms with treatment coming up & having observations for months after wards so I won't have as much time to do things .

Coach Potato's picture

Hey Thinker, aren't you worried about the Dogs backing up Monday after only a 3 day turnaround from Thursday night ?!!

Coach Potato's picture

Three lots of 17 ... 51 players out there at Brooky. Do you think just 2 refs and the Bunker will be enough?

What about the toss? Do they have to play rock paper scissors? Will they have a third set of goalposts and play hybrid Quiddich rules?

christine's picture

Thanks Tigerholic at least you know then were i'm coming from with being in 3 comps it's a juggling act & yes I know coach doesn't mean any harm but sometimes I forget that & give him a reaction , all is good .

tigerholic's picture

Rocket Ryan, my tips have been posted, I know that you can't post yours until mine are up so there you go. I know last year we had a lot of followers so I hope we can guide a few to the top of the crop.
Good luck

Coach Potato's picture

Ok my turn. Tips & Odds. Roughies highlighted.

MANLY ($2.52)
GOLD COAST ($4.75)
Melbourne ($1.12)
WESTS ($2.30)
North Queensland ($1.20)
New Zealand ($1.65)
PENRITH ($2.75)
CANBERRA ($2.95)

Coach Potato's picture

...495/1.

Should be 1000/1 but half of that will do nicely.

Johnny Ray's picture

Damn the hosts on Footy Show suck at this meme competition. Here's mine for Daly Cherry Evans meme that was on show tonight : " The Look On Your Face When Acid Wears Off And You're Still Playing For Manly ... " Now if only I was on Twitter ... :-S

mark ashford's picture

Why are some of us having a "shot" about our tips?
It's only the beginning of round 5.
Have we all forgotten how we went for the first 6 rounds of 2015?
Coach that was a lovely story about the ball spinning through the salty air and landing on a dime etc but what the f--k did it have to do with my question about Peter Wallace?
Don't like the Broncos to be favourites at this stage...maybe at round 23 or whatever.
Does anyone think Gallen will be picked for NSW origin?
surely there are better forwards and fitter forwards to at least give QLD a challenge.
If I was a sharkies fan I think I would like to see him gone?
They are winning games without him and as a QLDer would love to see him in SOO again.

Annonymous's picture

Gallen IS gone

Annonymous's picture

Thank fu.ck! Bring it on QLD

Annonymous's picture

BUNNIES BRONCS STORM TIGERS COWS WARRIORS EELS DOGS

The Thinker's picture

Spotted Coach (my Bulldogs blunder).....all fixed now.

Mark A,
Had a bit of luck actually. Started at Frenchmans Beach and worked my way around the headland back along Deadmans Beach on foot. Nice way to spend a few hours and I managed to pick up a feed for the mini-thinkers.

And second cast on Frenchmans I picked up a nice Golden Trevally - about 40cms. That was quite a bit of a fun on my light gear in the surf.

Coach Potato's picture

Well Mark, I was basically saying that Wallace didn't lose them the game. We may have been out of interchanges with him, I don't know. Was there even a break in play for it to happen anyway? One thing I do know is Penrith play the game straight and true. You mention some kind of time wasting ploy as the proposed winning move. Well that's not Penrith's go. You won't see our players fall over themselves getting up to play the ball. Other teams can do it. They might be successful at winning penalties. Might even win games on the back of it. Penrith don't care. It's not the way they play. If they are good enough they win. It's not going to be some crap that they put over the refs or something not in the spirit of the game. People will say all teams do this crap. I vehemently disagree. Soward was an absolute sack of potatoes at the Dragons but he soon learnt at Penrith that integrity matters and he cut out the crap. At most other clubs, well, integrity is not a priority. I have to say Mark, your club is high on the list of the clubs I'm referring to. As a fan, your winning move proposal kind of backs me up.

Coach Potato's picture

...chat with Baggy_Gee continued from last round ...

Baggy, the stats on that game reads Eels 31/42 completions. Tigers 34/48. Simple maths will tell you that if there are 90 separate possessions in a game of footy, they aren't going to be long ones.

Anyway, enough of your damn transistor stuck to your ear. Here is the Bunker view of the Junior Paulo effort. My view is, although there is no separation, that doesn't mean a player hasn't lost control. You haven't been able to follow the ball to the ground with you fingertips for years. Now you can again??? My view is if you have lost "grasp" or a "grip" on the ball, you have lost control. The test for me is if a player could stop the ball from hitting the ground if they wanted to, then they have control. If they couldn't stop the ball from hitting the ground, even if they wanted to, then that player has lost control. Here is exhibit A ..

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=junior+paulo+try&client=tablet-androi...

Baggy_Gee's picture

Nice to see the BOYS in at $11.00 for the whole sherbang. Might wait for them to slip a little then get on the bus.
Nothing like the green green grass of home after a pair of wins at ANZ. Oh to be there and watch what will be a cracker of a game.

Johnny Ray's picture

Baggy_Gee if NRL was really serious about stripping Storm of their grand final titles for salary cup breaches then they should at least give their 2009 title to Paramatta Eels. Just because I am sick of Matty Johns show making fun of Hindmash for not winning premiership ...

Coach Potato's picture

Anonymous, Gallen and Pearce have been NSW's two Achilles heels for years. I say your times up Qld grey beards.

Baggy_Gee's picture

True but if that's the best Matt Johns can come up with it's a bit sad. Nathan Hindmarsh has tackled the ENTIRE PLAYING ROSTER of the NRL of all time, and then he started again, He is recognised as a classy guy on the field, only went the biff once (but we can forgive punching Mick Ennis), and wasn't part of the boof head group n the NSW origin group when all that rubbish happened. The best Matt Johns has is that he is Andrew's older brother who has been to two teams who liked to share groupies. Why bring up things that can and will make you look like a tool? Lets just put the names on the trophy so that we can make the whole issue fade into the background, Manly and Parra, two teams who are the Premiers and put the Storm as the spoon holders, Official and written in brass.

Baggy_Gee's picture

As has been argued a million times, I want ball control and therefore am happy to say no try, no this downward pressure crap. Yes we will lose the dive over the winger, around the corner post little finger grazed the ball try that rates so highly with the masses. But as a Member of the Parramatta Eels, No Try.

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