Brisbane Broncos vs Wests Tigers – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
With six of their best unavailable (five Kangaroos and one who will be) the Broncos depth will clearly be tested on Friday night. Importantly, their high-performing spine remains virtually intact - the only change is Kahu moving to fullback for Darius Boyd. Note that Kahu did play fullback for the Kiwis in the ANZAC test so he should be okay. He's also pinched the goal-kicking tee off Corey Parker in recent weeks so no changes on that front. That relatively intact spine means that Nikorima, who played in the halves for New Zealand in the ANZAC test, stays on the bench. Deep huh! The Tigers are without Aaron Woods and technically without Robbie Farah. Farah didn't play for the Tigers against the Knights last week but he's ready for Origin duty. For those with memories as long as mine he could become the next Olsen Filipaina. What remains of the Broncos pack needs to stand up, but with Blair and Glenn on duty the defensive structures should remain intact.
Verdict – Broncos by 8
Result - Tigers 19 defeated Broncos 18
St George Illawarra Dragons vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – WIN Stadium
If Origin duty doesn't defeat the Cowboys the weather probably will. A top of 15 degrees in Wollongong on Saturday and they're due for a strong westerly change on Saturday afternoon. Some of those Cowboys will need mittens. I don't have a great deal of faith in the Dragons attack. Their most potent attacking force is stuck on a roof with Blake Ferguson, but the rest of the Dragons spine (Rein, Widdop and Marshall) have no excuses this weekend. The Cowboys are without their twin towers up front so the Dragons pack, at home, have no excuses either. I was hoping Lachlan Coote would get moved into the halves, if only to give me a decent look at Kalyn Ponga at fullback (remember that name folks). Jahrome Hughes will debut in the halves alongside Ray Thompson this week, so I'll need to be patient. The Dragons to win, but win ugly. Dropped pie ugly.
Verdict – Dragons by 4
Result - Dragons 14 defeated Cowboys 10
Canberra Raiders vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – GIO Stadium
Earlier today I took a breath and did a spot of introspective navel-gazing, and what I learned was thus:
The Canberra Raiders are not my friend.
The last time I tipped them correctly was back in round eight. Back then I tipped them to win by 2 and they won by 54, so you could mount a fair argument that I got that game wrong too. For mine, they have replaced the Warriors as the most enigmatic team in the NRL, if only because we can now rely on the Warriors to be crap each and every week. I don't think the Bulldogs are my friends either, so I feel like I'm up against the wall picking a winner here. The Raiders spine and backline just looks like an enormous amount of fun, and I think cool, dry, daytime conditions in Canberra bring out their best. Papalii heads north to join the Maroons, but the return of Soliola and Fensom for the Raiders are massive inclusions. The Dogs lose Klemmer and Jackson to Origin duty, and while their pack is still enormous they aren't anywhere near as mobile with those two missing. Just four games this weekend, and this stands out as the best of them.
Verdict – Raiders by 10
Result - Raiders 32 defeated Bulldogs 20
Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels – Monday night – Hunter Stadium
The Knights can barely put together a reserve grade team to play first grade at the moment, but they still lose as many players to Origin duty as the cap-cheating Eels. On paper the Eels win this and win easily, but that assumes they still believe they're chasing a top eight finish. Since their penalty they've lost two winnable games at home, and it makes me wonder. Yes, there are two paths they can go by, but in the long run, there's still time to change the road they're on.....just. Buying a stairway to heaven - that's what got them in trouble in the first place. The Eels need 12 wins from 13 games to play finals football. That's a big for ask for anyone, let alone a team lacking momentum. If they've got anything left to give they have to start giving now...surely.
Verdict – Eels by 14
Result - Eels 20 defeated Knights 18
Wally Lewis - round twelve selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
- BRONCOS vs Tigers
- DRAGONS vs Cowboys
- RAIDERS vs Bulldogs
- Knights vs EELS
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Short and sweet this round folks. Feel free to add your tips and comments when you're ready to roll.
I'll have my previews and selections posted by lunchtime tomorrow.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Forget the past never
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Yesterday doesn't tell you what happens tomorrow
Submitted by christine on
My tips at this stage are :
broncos
saints
raiders
eels
Submitted by The Joker on
Broncs
COWS
Raiders
Eels
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Ummmmm we didn't cheat the cap, we just forgot that we signed a piece of paper that said how much we could spend, the dog ate our accounts, someone set the clock forward to 2017 and we thought we had an extra 300,000 to spend, The board lied to us the fans, the players, and the NRL, our cap is based on the $80 million that the NBA uses, Steven Dank is now our in charge of player recruitment and accounting.............................. But on the other hand, Yay, not many of the BOYS get to attend the Origin game as players. It doesn't get better than that.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Well said Baggy.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Hi Thinker
I go out in a neighbours boat about a k south of Red Beach. There's a big yellow beacon there in around 5 metres of water.
Heaps of Diver (Winter) Whiting. Small but delicious!
Broncos
Dragons
Dogs
Eels
Only 4 games this round...feel cheated.
Although picking 4 winners is a lot easier than 8 so maybe not so bad.
SOO shapes as the older more experienced team -v- the younger hungry team.
Will be a good contest as they always are.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thinker, if you or anyone else has the official answer, please share. Else you can join me at the Stumped Club. I'll be at the bar.
Q? Frizzell and Josh Morris have been granted permission to play this weekend while the rest of the NSW and QLD Origin players have not been. Can anyone explain?
I think I'll be at the Stumped Bar a while longer trying to work this one out.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Coach I've just read that they were both released from the original 19 and cleared to play for their clubs. No reason given, no injuries, no bad behaviour, no nuthin!
Morris is one of the best blues to pull on a jumper and Frizelle...well who knows? Maybe us devious cockroaches paid Laurie to let them go.
A mystery for sure.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Mark canetoads not cockroachs
The tenth halfs combo in seven years the more things change the more they same the same blues stuck with untried reynolds and the failed moloney hopeless
Submitted by mark ashford on
Coach also just read that while both players are free to play for their clubs this weekend they are to rejoin the NSW origin camp Monday.
Read into that what you will.
Why would you not want Morris out on the wing a try scoring machine.
Both players are fit enough to back up but why take an injury chance?
Think I'll join you at the stumped club.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Jesus Rocket did I say cockroaches?
Of course it's those lovable little froggies CANETOADS
My apologies to all QLDers.
Rocket have you ever seen a canetoad eat cockroaches?
Sat out on my patio a couple of weeks ago and this big fella was eating them one after another.
Thought to myself "well there goes another series"
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Enjoyed the sight many times myself go queenslsnd
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The Cockroach Origin Pep Talk...... as told by Coach Potato to the players just before running out .....
"Men. Cockroaches can survive a nuclear holocaust. They are survivors. We are survivors NSW."
"The last ten years or so have been like a holocaust you players and the fans alike, but cockroaches are survivors. We are survivors NSW."
"Cockroaches remain pesky things and they won't go away. Think they've killed us off and we keep coming back. We are never broken. We are survivors. We are NSW."
"Cockroaches. Survivors. NSW"
"Now get out their and beat those bloody wankers!"
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I thought the word released meant 'going to another club'. I kept reading but nothing said about his future. All there is to conclude is that released is the nicest way of saying he's been sacked.
http://www.warriors.kiwi/news/2016/05/24/vodafone_warriors_re.html
Submitted by mark ashford on
Well in response to Coaches pep talk here is what all QLDers know about our 'toads.
"You were brought here in August of 1935 to eat the blue backed beatle that was devastating the cane fields of QLD"
"Unfortunately you couldn't climb to the top of the cane where the beatle lived so you were a complete failure"
However you did look around for some tucker and found THE COCKROACH which was quite to your liking.
In NSW at the time they were playing a game (closely guarded) called Rugby League and even though some QLDers played it, NSW had it all over QLD.
Then someone suggested SOO and the cockroaches came over the border and were instantly devoured by the canetoads.
Cane toads now are as far west as Broome and as South as Grafton.
We will continue to devour your cockroaches as we are as indestructible as you are.
With apologies to all who find the cane toad horrible (including me!)
Submitted by a on
QLD will win
Submitted by mark ashford on
YES "a" your JT will lead us home again.
The aging QLDers will prevail and next year Kevvie will bring in the young guns to carry on.
C'mon Coach wouldn't you like 75% of the Kangaroos playing in your team?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I fell asleep half way into your story Rocket. Please tell yours to the Maroons before the game. Would be great if they played comatose. Better still have watch this and be hypnotised by the Sugar Cane song.
Yes, Canetoads ..... you are feeling sleepy .... veeerryy sleepy......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewXtSqwEO-Y
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
JT what a great player blues don't have a talent to match him
QUEENSLANDER
Submitted by a on
Yeah that's right QLD all the way
Submitted by Coach Potato on
..(yawn) .... boring old Qlder comments ...feeling veeerryy sleepy
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Rocket, NSW know if they force JT to pass "every time" they take away his running game. They take away 50% of his game.
If NSW make a pact to not fall for one of his dummies, he either tackles or passes. That's 50% of his game gone. Everyone knows he has no other ability to beat a defender one on one. Hardly a champion quality eh?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
(*)either is tackled or passes ...
Submitted by The Thinker on
Nice one Mark. I hadn't thought of the winter whiting, but it makes perfect sense.
Plenty of them, and they're just as tasty.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
4 games to tip but a few of them have that origin factor behind them.
Broncos - Their Hooker, halves remain the same, and the only Broncos forward that I would be happy for the Eels to chase is out. So for me there isn't any reason to get nervous about this game. I like the way that most of the "back ups" are good players in their own right, and the inclusion of Neiqama is a boost for the Tigers i think the loss of Woods offsets that. While it possible that the Tigers could push the Broncos and be close, You have to remember, Suncorp, Friday night, and the Bronocs with only one serious player missing.
Cowboys - More issues here for the Cowboys than the Broncos, their halves pairing is new, but Thompson has a few games along side Thurston, so controlling the side in his absence shouldn't be an issue. It's the fact that everyone else needs to get on board the Thompson express and remember that this is NOT Thurston. All their forwards are good players and like the Sharks, might possibly lift with the absecence of Scott. The Dragons got a good amount of points last week so who knows, aberation or new found trend. I think it might be a one off and the Cowboys will have more points in them.
Bulldogs - It will be a battle of the halves, both 5/8 could have been selected and sometimes that brings out the best in a player. Both forward packs will rip in and either make monster gains each set or nullify the other completely. As good as a 50/50 game from my view and I'll back Holland to kick the Dogs to a win.
Eels - Happy that Jennings being out allows us to re-shuffle our team. Would love to see Vai move to the right center, which brings Brad back to the left where he and Sami carved it up last year. The Jennings/Sami left edge isn't running as smoothly as I would like. Worried about Beau's leg after he only got 15 minutes last week, and a strapping around a Hammy always leaves me nervous. But our second unit of forwards did the deed last week and it was our backs that let us down. Sadly the Knights weren't as crap last week, so they are building, just not today. CARN THE BOYS!!!
Submitted by christine on
I have to say it's qld for me & I do hold a grudge & I live in nsw so say what you like coach I really don't care ...
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Tigerholic I believe that you have been to to the doctor did he confirm you still have a backbone.
Is there any damage to it?
Are you going to stick to the tigers or cut and run?
Tigerholic go out and polish those number plates ring your friend coach pototo he is as used to feeling like a loser this time of year again and again and again and again and again as you are, l will be waiting for your tips to be posted and l will be waiting for you wednesday night .
Submitted by a on
Here are my tips
Broncos by 6 I think it going to be close because of all the origin players missing but Broncos to win
Cowboys by 1 not too confident on this 1 but Cowboys did beat Dragons last year without their stars so Cowboys by 1
Raiders by 2 I think Raiders are going to beat Bulldogs twice in a season for the 1st time since 2009
Eels by 10 I think Eels are going to continue Knights misery here
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
There is another way to take Thurston out of the game. Like Lockyer he always has a minder beside him, Target all the big men down that channel and suddenly you have a 13 on 12 defensive line, 13 on 11 as the fullback is behind the play. A thrown ball is quicker than a running man, use Thurston's importance against the QLD'ers. Also hack the 9 and life will be peachy anyway.
Submitted by tigerholic on
Rocket
I don' know why you are so arrogant, you are simply the number one dribbler in this tipping comp.
Leave Coach alone, what does he ever do to upset you enough to berate him every time you posy a dribbling comment.
I am going to enjoy next Thursday morning so much, this will be because the NSW blues will wake up with a 1-0 lead in the series, Thurston will be injured, Cameron Smith will still be arguing with the ref at the airport about his undies being to tight or something as absurd as that, of course you grubby Queenslanders will think Smith is in the right.
Come on Coach, lets ramp it up a bit and give the grubs all of the stick they deserve.
Submitted by Dragonsfan4ever on
Hello everyone, only the 4 games this week. Anything can happen on the origin affected round with big time players out which might affect teams playing in this round. My tips for this week are:
Broncos by 8- Even though Broncos are the most effected team with 6 players out because of origin. Broncos still got a high quality team with the likes of Milford, Hunt, Kahu, Blair. Tigers won't make it easy for them though with plenty of skilled, attacking players in their side. But, they do lack leadership and a hooker for this game. So my tip is the Broncos but in a close one.
Dragons by 10- Our attack has improved in recent matches. Though, we are still somewhere down the bottom in points scored this year. Though all of our wins this year has come from resiliency. I think it'll be more than resiliency getting us the win. We've lost Dugan which is a huge blow in our attack because with attack, he is the standout. But Cowboys have lost both their halves, their co-captains, their props and a backline player in O'Neill. That's a lot of class missing. Although, they do still have some quality players in Coote, Feldt, Taumalolo, and Hannant. But I just think with the quality of players out will have a pretty big effect on the Cowboys and we'll win by 10 and score a fair amount of points and also have the defence to hold the Cowboys.
Raiders by 8- Raiders to win in this clash. Bulldogs have a few good players out due to origin compared to Raiders 1 with Papailli playing origin next Wednesday night. But Bulldogs still have a great side in both attack and defence. Raiders also have a great side and don't look too different from the side of last week. But you just never know what the result will be for this one Bulldogs might upset. But my tip is Raiders.
And finally... Eels by 12- Eels will be too good here in a must win game for them. Knights did improve last week. But their side is just too inexperienced and they have been in horrendous form though they did improve last week like I said. Eels to get back in the winners circle in fine fashion here.
Awesome that's done. Good luck to everyone this week in which will be a short week in terms of games played in this round. Looking forward for origin. Hope the Blues do win in origin but we'll have to wait for next week to see what happens. Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Cowboys without Thurston.
Cowboys have not had Thurston take the field 42 times going back to 2005.
How have they fared without him?
Year--wins--losses
2015--2--1
2014--0--2
2013--0--3
2012--1--1
2011--3--3
2010--2--4
2009--1--0
2008--2--6
2007--0--2
2006--2--5
2005--1--1
42 games--14 wins--28 losses.
Exactly 33% strike rate a Cowboys team minus Thurston.
Interestingly 2015 has been the only season the Cowboys have won more than lost without JT.
Can the Cowboys win without Thurston? Sure they can.
Will they win without Thurston this week? Chances are, no.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Call me an old softie if you must but....
I'm hoping Johnny Ray is back this round.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Travelling to Newcastle to play on a Monday night.
How do teams fare travelling to Newcastle on a Monday night? Probably not bad you might think? So-so you guess?
Year--away wins--home wins
2016--1--0
2015--1--0
2014--0--1
2013--0--2
2012--0--3
2011--2--0
2010--1--2
2009--0--2
2008--0--1
Going back to 2008, Knights have had 16 home games on a Monday night.
16 games, 5 away winners, 11 home winners.
That's less than 33% of the time the away team has won at Newcastle on a Monday.
Can the away team win at Newcastle on a Monday night? Sure they can.
Will Parra win at Newcastle this coming Monday night? Chances are, no.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Interesting coach now factor in the knights best player is in the great qld side.
Submitted by a on
Cowboys will still win without JT
Submitted by Coach Potato on
JR, we love to hate this game.
We hate tipping it wrong.
We hate the refs.
We hate the touchies.
We hate the Bunker.
We hate the NRL board.
We hate the judiciary.
We hate each other's club teams.
We hate each other's State team.
There's lots to hate.
But
We love our own club team.
We love our own State team.
We love having a win.
There's much less to love, but that's ok. A little love goes a long way.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No worries Rocket. I will factor in a Newcastle team without Gagai.
In fact he hasn't missed a single game since early 2013. He missed 4 games, Newcastle won 3 of them - including a Monday night thrashing 34 - 6 over the Cowboys.
The year before he joined the Knights mid-season. He played every game onwards that season but before he joined Newcastle won 8 of the first 12 rounds.
That's a 75% win rate without Gagai.
With Gagai, Newcastle have won 36 out of 94. Just 38%.
#Rocket'sGagaiFactorBlownToSmitherines
Submitted by Coach Potato on
..further to Baggy's tips on Thurston, I think you'd have great success if
1/ one defender and one only required moves up on him each time and tackles regardless of dummy the thrown
2/ in the direction he runs across field (and he does that a lot), have the player outside the tackler move up a little out of the line.
This will tempt him to dummy, because his outside option has been closed off. Dummy with then equal getting smashed. Don't dummy. still get smashed. I nominate Josh Jackson to do the tackling, dummy or no dummy.
QLD won't win if this plan is put into practice.
Cowboys lucky to win another game this year if opposition teams follow suit.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hi everyone,
Newbie’s back from paradise safe and sound. Absolutely no idea who won or lost as NRL results don’t exactly figure prominently in the “Bangkok Post” or “The Nation” newspapers. Cable TV basically useless but understandable considering where I was (Chiang Rai). Imagine my surprise when I get back home Sunday and see the Sharks are on top of the ladder, the Eels have been docked competition points for salary cap breaches, the Mighty Roosters have moved up off the bottom and Newbie has done the same. Whaa? Might be a bit too much for me to soak up but I’ll do my best.
See there’s only 4 games this weekend and for me it’s a blessing as I’m manfully fighting off a “bug” that was so lovingly passed onto me in the plane coming home to Perth last Sunday. Leave Thailand at 37C and get home at 6.30am with rain and about 10C. Brrrr!
Again no time for research and ponderings on upcoming games but here goes …
Broncos
Dragons
Raiders
Eels
Before I forget, HUGE thanks to the Boss and TLH for whacking through my tips while I was away in Thailand. Many's the time I reminded myself how kind they were as I sat in local Thai eateries munching on delicious tucker, walking away full and having only spent a couple of bucks. Most times I was paying about 35 Baht (about $1.40) with the most expensive about 100 Baht from memory (about $4.00). If you haven’t been to Thailand, do yourself a favour and get yourself there one day. Thanks again Boss and TLH, really appreciate it. Cheers.
BTW (1) - was reading the comments thus far and see there’s some mention of Johnny Ray being “away”. Can someone enlighten me or should I troll back through the comments from previous rounds? Hope it’s not what I think it is (left the site that is) because if so, where will we get our weekly fix of witty and genuinely original humour from? God knows we need more humour these days. JR, don’t leave me now mon frère!
BTW (2) - see there’s a SOO coming up soon. Just in case you don’t know, Newbie is a Maroon supporter but without all the passion you guys from QLD and NSW have. I’m just happy to see a great game. Oh, and for some reason I’ve always referred to the Blues not as cockroaches but “Mexicans” because they’re “south of the border” so to speak. Is it OK to call them that I wonder. Coach, whaddya reckon?
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Jeez, it’s good to be back. Cheers.
P.S. Can pigs pull their ham strings? Hmmm…
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Still can't work out how Bryce Cartwright hasn't shown enough, how James Roberts hasn't shown enough.
They'd both be wearing Maroon if they were born in Qld.
Submitted by tigerholic on
Don't give them ideas Coach, Queenslanders will sign anyone up. Look out for a Lockyer comeback in game 3 if QLD have a few injuries and are losing.
Rocket, are you still out there?
Submitted by Tailspin on
G'day everyone, hope you all excited to see QLD down the Blues again, get out the tissues southerners, you are going to need them :) and here are my tips YE HA.
Broncos
Cowboys
Raiders
Eels
And the mighty Canetoads of course
Hope you all have a great weekend.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
I thought James Roberts came from that tiny QLD town or Kempsey. I think that the only thing keeping him out of the NSW team is that he has been good without lighting up the world. Bryce Cartwright on the other hand you would have thought was locked in for a spot after the way he's been this year.
Submitted by Islander on
Broncos
Dragons
Bulldogs
Eels
Thanks again everyone, and a special thanks to "a". later
Submitted by mark ashford on
Tigerholic you funny man!
Baggy and Coach you two are the greatest, coming up with those ways to stop JT. Coaches of the other 15 teams will forever be in your debt.
BUT SERIOUSLY
JR I'm sure you read the posts on this site and I'm adding my name to PLEASE ask you to comeback.
C'mon Coach you know how to do one of those 'bring back JR' thingys
I really miss his humour and admire his consumption of KFC.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Coach you said to Rocket "you can't take into account what happened yesterday" I think referring to SOO but all your stats take into account what happened yesterday. Am I missing something here?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
History provides the lesson, the future provides the opportunity to learn from mistakes made.
NSW have learnt and are set to buck the historic trend. That's what you're missing, Mark.
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