Round fifteen selections

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Gold Coast Titans – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

Two sides without a win since round 10 and both teams are in danger of slipping out of finals contention if they can't resurrect their seasons soon. The Rabbitohs were good in patches against the Broncos and their coach is pretty convinced they aren't far away from where they want to be. The Titans on the other hand disappointed against the Warriors but they did get the Warriors on one of those days when the Warriors could have beaten anyone (it does happen sometimes, but with not much more frequency than Cronulla premierships). More importantly, the Rabbitohs bring a settled squad into this game while the Titans have had a raft of significant changes thrust upon them – no Peats, no Hayne, no Wallace, no Elgey. Chris McQueen, once a winger and now a forward, has put his hand up for playmaking duties. Does he still have that Rabbitohs tattoo on his neck? The burrow gets a night to celebrate in what has been a pretty lean season.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 8

Result – Rabbitohs by 16

Melbourne Storm vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – AAMI Park

We all (well..almost all) love Origin football, but that love doesn't come without a cost. Origin has cost us what would otherwise be a rip-snorter of a football game in Melbourne on Saturday night. What remains is a close contest, but it lacks the absolute class that our Origin players would bring. After assuming Laybutt would play last weekend (and consequently getting my tip wrong) I'll get to see him here – he's a big tall blond boofhead halfback so you won't miss him out there. Kane Linnett slots into the back row to make up for the absences of Cooper and Hess. Six big changes for the Storm this weekend but the players they have stepping up have done this before. Their coach is near enough to a genius when it comes to getting his players to work to a plan, and there's no denying the class of Cameron Munster. It's hard to imagine the Storm without their big three but he is clearly one player that will be stepping into the breach. There's plenty of class in that Storm forward pack and I think they can get the points.

Verdict – Storm by 4

Result – Storm by 1

Cronulla Sharks vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – Southern Cross Group Stadium

In round 14 the Roosters were pretty average, and they scored 40 points against the Tigers. That gives you a fair indication of just how poor the Tigers were, and they were playing at home and with Tedesco and Woods on the paddock. If they were in any sort of form I could tip them here, because the Sharks are without their two best forwards, their two most dynamic backs and their most important playmaker and goalkicker. And the Sharks record at home this season, as I've pointed out previously, has been terrible. They lost again at home last week to the Storm, and if they can't beat the Storm at home on a wet night when they are resting Cooper Cronk I'm struggling to see how they can beat them in September. That said, if the Storm are a pineapple the Tigers are a turnip, and the only teams Cronulla are beating at home this season are turnips. I love rugby league, but if it's raining in Sydney on Saturday night this game will be almost unwatchable. I might even drag Ms Thinker out for a bite after the early game. Date responsibly.

Verdict – Sharks by 4

Result – Sharks by 2

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

I'd expect a fair crowd to show up at ANZ on Sunday afternoon as two of the more popular teams face off. These sides met in round two at WIN Stadium and the Eels were the victors in a dominant display. Corey Norman tore the Dragons apart on that occasion and Semi Radradra racked up a record four tries. Since then the Eels have added Mitchell Moses, while the Dragons won't have Dugan or Frizell on Sunday. Both these sides let me down in round 13 but I'm a little more forgiving of the Eels performance given their opposition on that occasion.

Verdict – Eels by 4

Result – Eels by 14

Wally Lewis - round fifteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • RABBITOHS vs Titans
  • STORM vs Cowboys
  • SHARKS vs Tigers
  • Eels vs DRAGONS

Comments

Christine 's picture

I'm glad to see coen Hess getting chosen for origin...

mark ashford's picture

Hi Chris
QLD has done a NSW dropping seasoned players after a loss.
But this time it may just work for the Maroons.
Of course having Slater and Thurston back is a huge bonus.
Aiden G and Sammy T did not do a lot last game but would they improve behind Thurston?
Coen Hess will bring some muscle up front and hopefully shut down Fiffita.
The QLD team looks like they will give the Blues a run for their money.
Would be nice to go back to Suncorp for a decider.

mark ashford's picture

I remember a certain potato man constantly bagging Mitch Pierce's selection at origin level.
Yes early days he may have been a bit young but he's proved himself at the Chooks and now at origin.
I think Coach wanted the NSW team filled up with Panthers.
Blind faith and no love for your state.

BigPeteBx's picture

Mark A - it will be interesting to see in Sydney among a Sea of Blue.
The new guns will need breaking in to Origin Footy.
That other fellow you spoke about, rarely gave credit where it was due.
He hated Manly, so didn't even bother giving me his thoughts or starch air over it.
Most likely had a bad case of Potato Blight virus.

christine's picture

I'm glad milf isn't playing origin this time ...

a's picture

I glad O Niel and Myles are out

christine's picture

"a" Yeah me to ...

Fortress's picture

Got 7/8 everyone and not even in the tipping comp maybe next year and give thinker a run for his money.

I read the mid year report on the roar well everything I've been saying all year about ranking the teams was all there to be seen,truth fact and common sense I say!!!!!!

I said all that even before I read the roars mid year report proving that u only need to look at what has happened so far this year to fully understand the gulf that exists we are talking over the 14 rounds not just one or 2 games.

Fact,truth and a good old fashioned footy brain I guess great minds think alike ey thinker !!!!!

Nite and good morning everyone!!!!!

Ronald Travasso's picture

Hi Thinker,

I truly respect your insights into every game for round 14. Decided for the first time to go against your tips for round 14 ended up getting all correct. Warriors it was the record they had against Titans and Hoffman's 300th game. Cowboys as you said you were hoping to get it wrong, Thurston was a factor, Bulldogs it was after adversity there is always a shining light after their performance against Panthers in round 13, plus their record against St George. Love your comments, and I will follow your tips with my own judgement on certain games. I am on 78 points in my comp leading by 7 points. Proud without boasting of my achievements. I am learning from you. thanks a lot

mark ashford's picture

Ronny T
Glad to hear you are leading your comp mate.
Yeah Thinker is a bit of a legend, doesn't miss too many.
Stick around here we have a bit of fun and sometimes a disagreement or two but it's all in fun.

Big Pete
Sydney will be a big test for the Maroons new boys for sure.
But with our spine back in place, we'll give you a run for your money.
Cam Smith had his quietest origin for years...expect improvement.
Bit surprised to see Corey Oates dropped. He scored the Maroons only points and had plenty of good carries. He's a big unit and can be a game breaker who knows how to get to the line.
We've selected some "young guns" to counter yours.
May the best team win.

christine's picture

I just read a tweet jarrod Wallace is free to play origin he's been found not guilty by the judiciary ...

a's picture

Yep Wallace is playing

mark ashford's picture

YES
Chris and "a" Jarrod Wallace found not guilty and is free to play origin 2. Rarely is a QLD player let off prior to an origin game.
Maybe this is a sign of things to come....like a QLD win in Sydney

christine's picture

Spartan warrior I expect to see your tips in this week okay ...

christine's picture

Mark I agree with you that they do tend to go a bit soft when it comes to origin but they didn't in 2014 when it came to izzac luke not being able to play the grand final for the tackle he did on sunny bill any way were is the positivity QLD will win in Sydney mark ...

mark ashford's picture

Chris
I like your positive attitude. QLD will give it a shot.
Like you I was an Isaac Luke fan. Good looking kid and tough as nails.
Haven't heard much about Isaac this year is he still playing for the Warriors?

a's picture

I think QLD can win this

Yeah I think Isaac Luke is still playing

Mary S's picture

Issac played for Warriors last weekend (Round 14)

a's picture

Yeah he did

christine's picture

Mark & "a" Yes izzac luke is still playing for warriors but I still think McGuire shouldn't have let him go at souths & now they are making a few more mistakes by loosing Bryson Goodwin to an English club & sharks are after arron grey & alex Johnston as much as i'm not a souths member or fan any more the writing is on the wall for all to see they might of signed gagi but what do they lose to get him ?

Baggy_Gee's picture

Get off the grass Mark, Cam Smith got off quite often. He always dodged bullets.

Johnny Awesome's picture

Good morning all,
Another nice brisk Canberra morning, just sitting back enjoying the bus ride to work. Definitely an interesting round of footy this weekend with players missing everywhere. Mr 'a' put me down for Souths this week in your comp. Cheers. I'm hoping the Blues can win against the Maroons at home, it will be a tough one. Gee, that Maroons side looks good. This is a dangerous Qld side. I think Laurie knows he'll have to have to make some strategic changes in play, but won't need to make too much. Just enough, to break Qld's cohesion. If Qld get a roll on they'll win. Still getting over the losses to Saints and Canberra. Fairdinkum, how do you lose a game by 4 points when leading by 8 with less than 3 mins to go? It's a shame, Canberra deserved a win for their efforts but sadly they looked slower than a octagenarian with ankle weights in the last 10 mins of that game. Mr Thinker what do you think are the stats regarding the last few minutes of the Canberra game? Is that some kind of record? Either way, I enjoyed the game up until then. And on my Saints, well, what can I say, if anyone can help a losing team hit form guaranteed it will be my Dragons. Anyway all, have a good one.
Cheers from Mr Awesome

Steel Panther's picture

Hi Christine.....trust you are well. The difference with Isaac Luke is he's a Kiwi...haha.

Since leaving the Bunnies and moving to the Warriors Isaac's been a disappointment although his form has been a bit better this season. When he arrived in Auckland he looked out of condition and struggled to recapture the form he had shown at Souths. There's a trend that goes way back to when the Warriors entered the comp of players coming to NZ and all of a sudden becoming just "joe average"....

I'm sure you Brisbane lads will Joel Moon and Denan Kemp. Both had superstar seasons at the Broncos only to sign the next year with NZ and become flops especially Kemp who I think disappeared after a handful of shocking games. Moon on the other hand had a couple of mediocre seasons before going to Super League where I believe he still plays today.

On the flipside Ivan Cleary, Kevin Campion and Steve Price all came to NZ and continued to be the great players they were in OZ.

Steel Panther's picture

"And on my Saints, well, what can I say, if anyone can help a losing team hit form guaranteed it will be my Dragons".

Johnny A don't take that label away from my team the Warriors...haha.

Have a good day mate!!

Spartan Warrior's picture

Greetings from the Spartan Warrior,

Thanketh Lady Christine, you never forget me. Thee has a valorous heart.

The Spartan Warrior’s tips for Round 15 are;
Rabbitohs, Storm, Sharks, Dragons.

I shareth with thee the following;
Leonidas (Agiad King, 491-480, Killed at Battle of Thermopylae) said
'That's fine, for I shall show that it isn't positions which lend men distinction, but men who enhance positions.'
Yea, this was the comment of Leonidas [in line to become King] when he was placed in a very bad position but still complied.
Aye, this comment rings true, as in life, as in rugby league.
It would bode well for the players and managers of the modern game to seek the lessons of the past to enhance their future. Seek not what the club can do for yea, but seek what yea can do for your club and fans. Aye, if all would join in this venture then it would dent the forces of the other codes that would wanteth to encroach upon the game of rugby league.
Aye, positions doth not maketh the sir. It is fine men and women that will always enhance any position. What of history? History is being created with the passing of each second. Each passing second, each minute, every hour and every day allows the opportunity for thee to create history.
I wisheth to share an interesting excerpt from time that hath passed. It is an interview from the great John Raper on his experience with the great Clive Churchhill. Aye, this is only but a snippet of history, much like a second that is an integral part of a minute. This snippet of history hath helped forge the modern game of rugby league.
I leaveth thee with this; I hope you may enjoyeth this interview as much as I did;
John Raper talks to Gerald Booth about The Little Master, Clive Churchill.

“Clive Churchill was known as the little master, and he was little, just 5-foot-7 tall; how did a small man like that impose himself on the game in such a dominating fashion?”
“Well in those days for a man his size and the amount of tackling that he had to do when he was running with the ball, it was a different type of game. There was 13 against 13, no person was allowed to leave the field, and if you came off the field in those days, you got the expression what they used to call a dog: you ran away from fear and danger, and you dare not leave the football field unless you were carried off the football field. But Churchill always showed great times when he was obviously injured very seriously and refused to go off the field. And I remember one of the first games I played against Churchill was when he was on the end of his career, and he was playing five-eighth for South Sydney.
Dickie Pool, the coach then said, ‘Now son,’ he said, ‘you’re playing against a good player here today. It’s Clive Churchill,’ he said, ‘don’t underestimate him because he’s a fullback’, he said, ‘because he’s capable of just about handling every position.’ And as cocky as I was in those days, I said, ‘Dick, don’t worry, you won’t have any trouble with him.’ As play went on, I got a bit cockier than what I should normally do, being 16 years of age I went up and I hit Churchill and I said, (I mean with a legal tackle of course) and I said, ‘How do you like that one?’ He said, ‘That’s good son,’ he said, ‘that’s beaut.’ Then a couple of moments later I hit him with another crash tackle and knocked him to the ground, and I said, ‘Now how was that one?’ And he said, ‘That was a lot better, by the way’, you know, he just sort of sat there and after we played the ball and before he got up he said that word, he said, ‘You know, it’s better than the last one.’ And the next time I hit him he said, ‘That was your best one, son.’ So I thought, oh well I must be getting over the old fellow. He said, ‘But next time you’d better hit me with the ball. Have a look up the other end of the field.’ Well what Clive had done he’d sucked me in, the winger come from the blind side, he give him the ball, Ian Moir it was in those days, give him the ball and Moir was putting the ball down between the posts as I was talking to Churchill. And I always admired Churchill immensely from that day, more than what I admired him before. And it was a great pleasure, having tackled Clive Churchill, it was a great pleasure getting a lesson from him.”
John Raper gives his account of his first match against
the Great Clive Churchill.

Thanketh thee all for thy timeth

The Spartan Warrior has spoken.

Hoc age quod praecipio tibi omni septimana deinde usque vale [I bid you all goodbye till next week]

The Thinker's picture

I see the Ten Network is on the verge of financial ruin.

Perhaps the NRL should step in and buy their own television network. As long as they can get it for a bargain basement price it might actually make sense.

Billy Slater or Cooper Cronk can hang out with the Talking Heads on The Project every Wednesday night and talk about the footy.

christine's picture

Steel panther Izzac luke was out of condition when he went to warriors & to be honest he didn't really seem interested at all when he played he even put on weight & I still wonder if he had a falling out with McGuire but we will never know , McGuire trains his players hard really hard which I think izzac needs & izzac did say he was torn between leaving souths & going back home to his ageing family & having time with them while he still could , izzac is a good player but he needs to be under the right coach to bring out his best ...

a's picture

Rugby League is not on channel ten it's on nine Thinker

Baggy_Gee's picture

Would there be enough content for a dedicated football channel? I know the weekends would be wall to wall football, and you could televise the NSW/QLD cup games mid week, but is there enough ad dollars to fund the commentary team and stop them having to do other gig's like the Olympics. But I agree boss if the price is right.

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hi all,
Even if the price is right there are huge running overheads. Staff, insurances, maintenance, They would need diversity in running different sports maybe, but that would need big bucks to buy. League followers wouldn't be enough revenue for advertisers and sponsors etc. Also there are already agreements in place worth 100's of millions of dollars. I think channel 10 if it shut up, would be worth next to nothing. It reminds me of a mate I've got who owned a coffee shop in Woden many years ago. His lease was up, the owner wanted him to do a facelift on the shop which would have cost him 100's of thousands of dollars and then raised his rent by 33%. He said that was it he was done and dusted. I asked if he was going to sell, he said, sell what? All I've got is a name the amount to re-run the business was worth more than the business itself. So basically he packed and left. You would think with some of the brains who have shares in channel ten how they would get to this stage. Mate, if they can't do it, then I doubt anyone will take on the risk. Maybe if one of the other television bought it out and ran it like a say ten does with ONE it might be able to survive in a small fashion maybe. Cheers from Mr Awesome

Baggy_Gee's picture

That's what I was kinda thunking, record everything, and I mean everything on the weekend, FOGS cup in QLD, reggies, the whole schbang and then you get the best return on investment for manhours outlaid. But you need the league shows in at prime, and to also beat the footy show. But 2 free to air football focused would be good for us punters, less crap on the footy show and more discussion on the issues of the day. But FOX would blow a gasket at the thought.

tigerholic's picture

Giddy Thinker

I read your comments on the Tigers Verse Sharks game. The Tigers did play poorly against the Roosters and that have played pretty bad all year, hence running second last.
I can see them turning it around this week with the return of Brooks, the Sharks have more than a few out, the Tigers have Woods and Teddy gone but I like the new young brigade, they show some promise.
I also like the signings for next year, I can almost see light at the end of a very dark tunnel.

Cheers

christine's picture

The Thinker might be on to something there a new football channel to compete with channel 9 & fox I for one am sick of fatty on 9 with the way they carry on it's ridiculous & not everyone can afford foxtel but it's the only way you get to see all of the games each week ...

The Thinker's picture

Just to explain my thought bubble on the NRL buying a Free to Air television network a little more.

The channel wouldn't just be a rugby league channel. They would still have all their other programming...and the Big Bash during the summer.

They could show every game on free to air. Fox can show whatever game they like whenever they want...without ads. Channel Ten has more than one channel on the dial, so there is an opportunity to broadcast every game on free to air to every part of the country on the different Ten stations.

You could also attract a pretty impressive Board of people who know how to run a company and love rugby league – David Gyngell and David Leckie have both run television networks before and both love their footy.

It's not the silliest idea I've ever come up....Surely I've been sillier than this.

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hi all,
Fair call Mr Thinker, I've got a 1 and a bit hour trip on the bus so I've got a bit of time to contemplate things. How does ten get the rights to games though? You still need an investor or investors etc. And buying stuff like different sports costs money. I knew 10 was suffering when they started showing reruns of Bellator 11/2 years ago and still are. I'm a MMA tragic and that did for me. It's a perpetual cycle, you can't afford the good stuff so pay for the lesser reruns and then lose more clients. Once the cycle starts well..... Will anyone risk investing to kick the station off? It'd be interesting to see.
Cheers from Mr Awesome

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hi all,
Tens share holder listed below.

Birketu Pty Ltd Bruce Gordon 15pc $8.7m
Foxtel Management Foxtel 13.9pc $8.1m
Hanrine Investments Gina Rinehart 8.3pc $4.6m
Aidem Holdings James Packer 7.5pc $4.4m
Illyria Lachlan Murdoch 7.5pc $4.4m
Network Investment Holdings Kerry Stokes 3.1pc $1.7m
Cheers Mr Awesome

The Thinker's picture

Best current estimate of what Channel 9 charges for TV commercials during NRL and Origin games:

Thursday and Friday nights - $35000 for 30 seconds

Sunday afternoons - $30000 for 30 seconds

State of Origin - $150000 for 30 seconds

Grand Final - $130000 for 30 seconds

There's still Test Match football and whatever happens to the Auckland Nines and the Indigenous v All Stars game. Womens football is growing too.

Channel Ten is currently worth $60 million. The NRL could buy half for $30 million. That's chump change. Their digital strategy budget is about $140 million.

Get a consortium together with Fox Sports and a bunch of big swingers like Singleton, Gyngell. Lachlan Murdoch and Leckie.

Play their cards right and they could be Australia's premium Sports Broadcaster.

Taka's picture

Hi Thinker,

this round is interesting with half of the team on bye& only four games without some key players due to origin duties.

my tip for round 15:
Rabbitohs by 6
Cowboys by 14
Sharks by 20
Dragons by 2

Cheers...

Taka's picture

Hi Thinker,

this round is interesting with half of the team on bye& only four games without some key players due to origin duties.

my tip for round 15:
Rabbitohs by 6
Cowboys by 14
Sharks by 20
Dragons by 2

Cheers...

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hi all,
Mr Thinker now that's a huge insight into what they charge for commercials. Fairdinkum, here I was thinking a couple of grand here and there. Gee, I'm behind the times for sure and that's a whole new level to certainly look at it Mr Thinker. As per usual, you are a wealth of knowledge. You are dead right about the consortium. Murdoch, Foxtel are already stake holders so that's good pulling power there. Cheers from Mr Awesome

Baggy_Gee's picture

I agree, that's a fair whack of dosh, and that would be per slot as well I guess. Makes it viable but what are the fixed overheads, forget wages as that would be less than 10% operation budget.

mark ashford's picture

Thinker
An interesting idea. What happens to the tv rights currently shared by 9 and fox. Lachlan Murdoch is a large 10 shareholder and of course is a major in Fox.
Could this result in a coup to strip 9 of RL rights?
We only have so many cashed up advertisers here in Aus. so they couldn't share it 3 ways.
The Murdochs (as far as I know have no interest in 9) and certainly have the cash.
The idea appeals as we could see the end of that appalling 9 "footy show"

mark ashford's picture

Thinker
Thinkering about it a bit more.
If the Murdochs were in charge of 10 why do you think we would get more free to air RL?
Surely as the owners of fox they would keep the status quo of forcing viewers to buy fox in order to see more RL.
#10 is a bit of a basket case when it comes to ratings and attracting advertisers.
A huge checkbook would be needed to take to the next tv deal.
You suggest the NRL could buy in, but don't forget where the majority of their money comes from. AND what would they do with the other hundreds of hours that 10 broadcast. Most are very low rating.
Could be another disaster for the NRL who are struggling to keep 16 clubs afloat.

pabdul's picture

i heard tonight that darius boyd will start in the centres in origin. unusual desperate move by qld though nsw has done it with dugan so who knows he has good hands and a good passing game. There have been some great positional changes in the past.
steve morris was a great half but ended up an even better winger. john ribot went from winger to 2nd row noel cleal a centre to 2nd row and most recent luke lewis from a back to a forward.
probably the most notable darren lockyer from fullback to 5/8.
it dosent always work like putting great gap runners into the playmaker role such as Dylan walker,inglis and hayne. i dont think its a great move for boyd and by halftime chambers will be back in the centres. may the best team win.

a's picture

Just a question for anyone since a bit of channel 10 talk is going on can anyone tell me if channel 10 is working on their TV

mark ashford's picture

Paddy
Darius is a great reader of the game and talks a lot.
He has excelled as a winger or fullback for QLD.
He may well be tested at centre but we now have some big forwards to make everything a bit easier.
Watch him work with Cronk, Smith and Thurston to direct plays.
Look out we're coming to get you.

This weekend I think Rabbits, Storm and Sharks should get up.
Struggling a bit with the Eels/Dragons match could go either way.

Johnny Awesome's picture

Yep Mr 'a' ten is working.
Cheers from Mr Awesome

a's picture

Well it's not on my TV

christine's picture

Mark The nrl make a deal with politis to be equal share holders in a joint venture so they each get a stake out of it all ...

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