Canterbury Bulldogs vs Parramatta Eels – Thursday night – ANZ Stadium
At the risk of repeating myself (no risk...I am repeating myself) the Bulldogs are yet to find a way to score enough points to win many (or any) games. In their last twelve attempts their highest score was 20 points (against the Knights). Here they face a team that has averaged more than 21 points in their last seven games. Note that these sides met in round 17 in a low-scoring grind, but even then the Eels prevailed in golden point (13-12). The Bulldogs didn't have James Graham that night, so there's an argument that the Bulldogs will be better this time around, but there's a more compelling argument that the Eels are a better side now than they were in round 17. This looks like a team peaking at the right end of the season, and they have a run home that gives them every chance of a top four finish. Their performance against the Broncos was (probably) their most impressive this season. As the game wore on they looked stronger, and they kept the Broncos pointless for the last 70 minutes of the game. Their under-rated pack needs to match it with the Dogs, but I think they can, and I'll back the Eels backline to outscore the Bulldogs every day of the week. I'm not going to say this is a foregone conclusion, but there's only one team you can tip on Thursday night.
Verdict – Eels by 10
Result – Eels by 16
St George Illawarra Dragons vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – Sydney Cricket Ground
I stand by my thesis that teams with little to play for won't perform, and while that thinking did me little good last week I'm sticking with it here. The Rabbits remain in limbo land – too far away from both the top eight and the wooden spoon to do what it takes to win an NRL game. The Dragons, after an almighty stumble last round, need to rebalance the ship quickly. The Bunnies have lost their last ten matches against top eight teams. Last week they played a team on the cusp of the eight and lost again. This looks set for a similar outcome. Note the venue folks – it's always nice to see some rugby league at the SCG once in a while.
Verdict – Dragons by 10
Result – Rabbitohs by 2
North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm – Friday night – 1300SMILES Stadium
It is often said that a team needs to win away from home if they want to win a premiership, so let's take a look at our ladder leaders and their performances this season. The Storm have lost one game away from home in 2017. That game was to the team currently in outright second. In that game the Chooks scored a match-levelling try in the 80th minute and won the game with a field goal in golden point. In that game the Storm scored more tries than their opponent. They made twice as many line breaks as their opponent. They made more metres than their opponent. They completed more sets than their opponent and missed 26 less tackles than their opponent. They won that game almost everywhere but on the scoreboard, and here's the real kicker – missing that night were Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater and Will Chambers. The Roosters had Jake Friend and Michael Gordon playing that night – in fact the only starting player missing for the Chooks was Cordnor. In round 21 the Cowboys lost to the Roosters when the Roosters didn't have Cordnor, Friend or Gordon. Given all that, and given that Smith, Cronk, Slater and Chambers are all playing on Friday night, it's hard to see anything but a purple victory. The Cowboys get a chance to make a statement about their premiership credentials without their two co-captains, but I'm not sure they're good enough to make the statement they would like to make. The purple machine rumbles on...somebody stop them..
Verdict – Storm by 7
Result – Storm by 18
Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday afternoon – McDonald Jones Stadium
For mine this is the game that has me scratching my head the most in round 22. The Knights don't win often but they won last week against a stronger opponent than they face here. Winning is almost as contagious as losing so I'm hopeful they take some confidence and momentum out of that performance. That they are playing at home in front of another amazing crowd boosts my confidence even further. Of course the Warriors have a team that can win this, but I could say that every week...and they usually don't. Much like the Bunnies, the Warriors don't have much to play for, and this is one team that doesn't need too many excuses to put in a disappointing effort.
Verdict – Knights by 4
Result – Knights by 16
Gold Coast Titans vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night – Cbus Super Stadium
This used to be the great Queensland derby, but it's been forgotten a little in recent times because the Cowboys v Broncos battles keep blowing our minds. Rugby League players do like to take things one game at a time, but if the Broncos are looking forward at all they will note that their last four games during the regular season are against some pretty formidable opponents (Sharks, Dragons, Eels and Cowboys). They are hanging on to their top four berth with one little pinky finger so this is a game they simply have to win. Note that Ben Hunt slips into the number 9 jersey – not a bad move if he can handle the additional workload in defence that comes with that role. Hunt, Kikorima. Milford and Boyd is a handy spine. I doubt it's a premiership winning spine, but they should be good enough to guide the Broncos home on Saturday night. Another challenging year for the Titans but I've been impressed by their efforts. Perhaps next year but in 2017 they are making up the numbers.
Verdict – Broncos by 8
Result – Broncos by 54
Cronulla Sharks vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday night – Southern Cross Group Stadium
I had all but talked myself into the Raiders and then I talked myself out of it again. That's because I remembered the last time these sides met, way back in round two. Most of us were keen on Canberra in that game (in Canberra) and the Sharks absolutely belted them that night (42-16). I had high expectations for the Raiders this season and I wasn't alone, but they've failed to live up to (my) hype. Right now they need teams ahead of them on the ladder to lose for them to make the eight, and once you are dependent on results of games you aren't playing in your season is all but over. If the Sharks want to finish in the top four they need to win this.
Verdict – Sharks by 2
Result – Raiders by 18
Manly Sea Eagles vs Sydney Roosters – Sunday afternoon – Lottoland
Daly Hyphen-Evans, the Socrates of the NRL, sees recent performances by the Sea Eagles as an opportunity to reboot and start afresh. They've conceded 92 points in their last two games, so what they probably need is a reboot up the bum. The Roosters record at Blottoland isn't great, but it's hardly been a happy hunting ground for the Sea Eagles either. They've won 4 of 8 which is okay, but the four teams they beat were the Bulldogs, Knights, Tigers and Raiders (by one point). I think the Chooks are better than that. Note that Jake Friend is named on an extended bench. He's probably one more week away but I suspect he's the sort of player that rehabs quickly.
Verdict – Roosters by 8
Result – Sea Eagles by 18
Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – Pepper Stadium
We saw the Bests Tigers in round 21 and not the Worsts Tigers (most other rounds) and I think they performed because the Knights won earlier on that weekend. It gave them the jolt they needed to just throw the ball around and try and play football, and it reminded me of the some of the early form they have displayed in the last two seasons...before it all fell apart. Theoretically that could happen again on Sunday. A few quirks about this contest. The Coach of the Tigers is taking on his son. We have two brothers wearing different jerseys but the same number. And the last time these sides met they both had number 6s that are now playing with other clubs. Moylan and Whare are unlikely starters but have been included in the extended Panthers squad. Assuming reasonable weather I'd assume they'll pack the joint for what is almost a local derby. I'll tip the Panthers again who are on some sort of roll – that pack (and the bench) looks too strong for mine.
Verdict – Panthers by 4
Result – Panthers by 14
Wally Lewis - round twenty two selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
- Bulldogs vs EELS
- DRAGONS vs Rabbitohs
- Cowboys vs STORM
- Knights vs WARRIORS
- Titans vs BRONCOS
- SHARKS vs Raiders
- Sea Eagles vs ROOSTERS
- PANTHERS vs Tigers
Comments
Submitted by Johnny Awesome on
Good morning all,
A fine icy morning in the Nations Capital. Just having the last drops of my brew before heading out for a nice crisp walk to the bus stop. I'm going with three of my mates to the Saints v Souths game at the SCG this Friday. One of my friends is a SCG member so we've got allocated members seating. This game is so crucial for Saints, I hope they don't let me down. Knocking off work early to get there, getting docked a couple hours of pay, missing Friday night footy with 'She who must be obeyed' and Bubby Loo, coming back home well after Midnight, then getting ready for work at 5am Saturday morning. It's a tough life being a footy fan but I love it. Some interesting games this week. Purely for selfish reasons for my Saints and Canberra teams, I need Penrith to lose [unlikely], and Cronulla to lose [again unlikely].
Anyway, gotta head off. Have a great one to you all. Cheers from Mr Awesome.
Submitted by Hardyards on
Thanks Mary, A.
Yes, the wake up call the boys got last week will focus the Cowboys against the Storm, we haven't beaten them since 2015, which we then went on to win the premiership. We will have to borrow the Roosters ruthless attack, and remain relentless in defence to match the Storm. We need to address our right side defence, its proven vulnerable the last couple of weeks and get back to being the best defensive team in the league.
If Munster fails to make the run-on, and the short turn-around (5 days for the storm) plus home side advantage, the Boys are in with a shot this weekend. I'll be tipping them. (caveat: I always tip them ;)
Submitted by a on
Yes our boys need to play they best to beat Storm
Submitted by mark ashford on
Johnny A
I can hear you walking over that crispy, frosty, snowy ground.
If it's any help I have tipped your Saints to beat the Rabbits.
THINKER or TLH
I'm away fishing on Fraser Island for round 23.
Can you please put these selections in for me?
Bulldogs, Eels, Sharks, Dragons, Storm, Cowboys, Raiders & Manly.
Back in time for #24
Good luck to all with your tips.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Mark Ashford
Nice. Enjoy the trip. I'll add your tips for next round for you.
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Steely, Baggy Gee, Rocky R and Tiger - I replied to yours of Round 21 and appears on Page 4, as it relates to Round 21 posts/blogs.
Cheers Guys - enjoy the remainder of the week.
@Mark A - enjoy it on Fraser mate. Coz its been freezin here. Icy air after the rain, but sun was nice today.
There'll be feathers flyin at Brooky this week.
Cheers - Big Pete
Submitted by christine on
My tips for rd 22 are as follows :
eels
dragons
storm
knights
broncos
sharks
roosters
panthers
enjoy your football everyone & may the refs be kind to us all ...
Submitted by PAUL on
Bulldogs are playing Eels , best you pick one.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Paul as the resident EELS nut here you better pick the right team. Or I'll rip ya' arms off.
Submitted by Islander on
Hey everyone, hello Mr. Thinker and the Lil' Helper. Just been dropping in each week to put in the tips (and boy do i suck at it). Tipping at barely 50% i think i was doing better when i was not part of the official comp. But hey, that's footy right!! Throughout the season i did want to post comments more often but honestly felt this site was going down the gutters thanks to some obsessed lunatics. i can see now that things are looking much better.
Don't worry Mr. Thinker more will return and new ones will follow as i did. With Finals footy just around the corner, its a awesome feeling to be a rugby league fan. Not forgetting the World cup to follow. Hoping my Bati can go a step better than the last two cups making the semi. I think We will have the squad to do it.
Back to the NRL, I believe the Sharks have what it takes to go back to back. A repeat of last years grand final would be awesome.
Well that's me for now, catch y'all later.
Submitted by Taka on
My round 22 tips:
Bulldogs by 4
Dragons by 16
Cowboys by 2
Knights by 10
Broncos by 10
Sharks by 4
Roosters by 6
Panthers by 7
Cheers...!
Submitted by The Walkin Dude on
Just wanted to drop a line to The Thinker on behalf of those that don't post in the comments and say cheers for putting out your tip write ups each and every week..Good write ups and you take all the dirty work out of researching team lists every week, priceless in my opinion..I still go against your suggestions here and there (and if I didn't I think I'd have my work tipping comp all but sewn up), but that's the fun in tipping..Thanks mate!
Submitted by a on
Here are my tips
Eels by 4 I think the Eels will get home aganist Bulldogs
Dragons by 6 I think the Dragons will go back to form against the Rabbitohs
Cowboys by 1 I think the Cowboys can upset Storm
Knights by 2 When the Warriors season us gone they dont even try
Broncos by 4 I think the Broncos will beat the Titans here
Sharks by 6 I think the Sharks will get home here
Roosters by 2 I think the Roosters will continue Manlys misery
Panthers by 10 I think the Panthers will beat West Tigers
Submitted by mark ashford on
Thank you Thinker.
Talk again in a couple of weeks.
Isn't it nice to see a couple of new posters now the rubbish has stopped.
Good luck to all tipping here.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Agree Mark. Much more pleasant here now. Enjoy the fishing.
Good to see you post Islander!! Agree the Sharks could go back to back but after the weekend's display there is daylight between the Storm and second place.
Taka surely you should be joining us tipsters next season!!!
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Big Pete...how do you see the Eagles playing this weekend? Will it be all guns blazing or has their bubble burst? I'm tempted to tip them as surely they are desperate now...
Submitted by a on
Yes I agree no more rubbish just friendly posting
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Evenin Steely - back to catchin up here.
Mate, I'll be honest. Many and outrightly so, have gone for Chooks this round. Apart from here, where Thinker has a margin of 8 riding, others about, are a little narrower.
Pabdul will most likely go 12 pts - two converted tries for him.
Both sides have talented pot shot takers, if/when it comes down to that.
Manly will be desperate, especially at home with that fanatical crowd we have there. The team on paper looks good, but they need to put it together, like they did for the earlier part of the season.
I'm gunnin for me Sea Eagles, because they need to get the "old house" in remake and start the charge towards the finals. Otherwise their mad Monday, will come sooner than they bloody well think.
Might only be a margin of 2 pts or go odd 1 or 3 with a field goal, as both might try the luck early in the game, in case of, with me, but if the backline get some good runs on, who knows what they can do.
Cheers - Big Pete from over The Blue Yonder
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Just worried about the desperate part people are saying about Manly, desperate teams go away from what was their strength. Excluding the Knight's who are teaching young men how to play at the same level week in and out and mix it with the best, I think the Thinker said it best when he said the Tigers had a reason to play football not so much scrabble desperately for two points and a toe hold. I hope no-one at Manly mentions desperation or the last two losses but focuses on how they played to get where they were with a good enough +/- to absorb -64 points in two weeks. If not, it might be all she wrote on their season as they try to push plays that aren't on and try for that next miracle ball to stick.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Sa-wat-dee krup,
Thank god I’m not living in Johnny A’s neck of the woods. I think I’d die! Got up this morning and it was a freezing 4C. Sitting here at 9pm and it’s 10C. Man, this cold winter weather over here in the West is killing me! Hey, I’m more used to the warm weather in Thailand and the usual temperate/hot climate of Perth. Feel free to shake your head and snigger, I don’t mind (ha-ha). On balance I’m glad to be here. Anyway, enough of that. It’s cold as ice and we need to get into it…
Eels - Methinks that Baggy’s BOYS might just be the real deal. They look like they’re coming good at the right time of the year if last week’s effort against the Ponies is anything to go by. I was somewhat surprised with the Doggies last week. They had a pretty decent crack at it but all to no avail and unfortunately I reckon they’re gawn. This might be close but I’m tipping the Eels to get in here.
Dragons - Ah, will the “bounce-back” factor be working for the Dragons this week? Great effort by the Knights but the Red V should never have lost that one. Souths were equally as mediocre and Big Sam will be missing. Based purely on who will be more desperate to win this one, I’m tipping the Dragons.
Storm - This game should be a burster. The Storm were pretty darn good last week. The Cowboys let the game slip last week against my BBB but I think they have the class to match it with the Storm this time. It should be close unless the Cowboys switch off again. I’m feeling that the Storm will go along their merry way and prove a little too strong up at 1300Smiles. The Storm Troopers for me.
Knights - Great win by the Knights last week. The big question racing around inside my head is whether they can get 2 in a row. Apparently they haven’t done so since sometime around the end of 2015. Man that’s a long time. On paper, the Warriors should win this one but I get a sense that they’re floundering just a little and the Knights are full of confidence. Enough that Newbie’s gonna jump on the bandwagon and tip the Knights this week.
Broncos - No offense to the Eels but I never thought the Broncos would lose that one last week. The Titans were pretty ordinary last week and Brisbane have beaten them the last six times. Even with the loss of Andrew McCullough, I still think the Broncos can get up (just) in this one. Just a tad more at stake for them and they’ll want to make amends for last week. Ponies for me.
Sharks - There’s talk of an upset here but I’m not buying that. Cronulla did enough last week and have Birdy coming back in I see. Yeah, Canberra get Rapana and Papalii back but I just think the Sharks have a little edge here and they’re playing at home. Not that their home record this year is anything to get excited about but… Sharks in a close one.
Roosters - You would expect the Manly boys to make a statement (especially at home) on the back of two embarrassing losses in a row. My BBB will have a tough job on their hands. I was cock-a-hoop (finally get a chance to use that line) with the BBB effort last week. My brother (on here a few years ago aka Shanghai) sent me a text Saturday night. He was competing in the Aust Darts Championships in Townsville and was having dinner at the Cowboys Leagues Club watching the game. He kept me up-to-date with developments and we were both very happy we got up in that one. He’s a good brother eh? Manly did beat us last time but I don’t think they’re the same team they were back then. I believe we’re coming good at the right time all the while missing players (but I see Jake Friend has been named on the bench this week). My heart and my head are in total agreement this week. Roosters for me. Begurk! Begurk!
Panthers - The Panthers got up last week against a game Bulldogs outfit while the Tigers had a very impressive win against the Titans. Both sides impressed me and this is a tough one to choose. Because they’ve won four in a row, they’re playing at home and Moylan’s been named on the bench, I’m going with the Panthers.
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week people. Cheers.
P.S. They say crime doesn't pay. Does that mean my job is a crime? Hmmm…
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Morning Baggy G and how is things at the Too Woom Bar.
Frost about here this early morn. Thick on cars and garbo's, as I brought them in this morning and the "neighbourly" ones that I also do.
Not wrong in what you comment there about desperations, even if I did comment that way myself. Many are playing to see what comes off and not as a combined team. Manly are better than that and have proved it with numerous slick backlines to deal teams a blow. Certainly laid it on Souths, back in April.
We're hangin in the there mate and might have the better of the last rounds draw. This is where Manly need to assert themselves.
EPL Community Shield this weekend from UK. Arsenal v Chelsea.
Certainly been some transfers in the $$$$$'s sense to add.
Cheers - Big Pete
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Only 10 this morning, already breaking out the summer PJ's. Can't remember a milder winter up here, got a bit cold for at the most a week but after that it's been a chilly spring season.
Submitted by PAUL on
Definitely Eels, I saw them last week....unstoppable
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Unstoppable we might have been last week, we need to keen that sharp focus this weekend or we will get belted tonight. Like the Knights showed last week, no team can be written off. Sharp and powerful will see us get the cookies, anything less might see us done like a dinner.
Submitted by a on
Heres my prediction for the top 8
Storm
Roosters
Sharks
Broncos
Cowboys
Eels
Dragons
Panthers
Submitted by christine on
"a" Who do you think will win the grand final ?
Submitted by christine on
I for one think it's storms year & we are probably looking at a storm /roosters grand final or a storm sharks grand final ...
Submitted by a on
Yeah I think it will be Storm I think they are just too strong
Submitted by Islander on
Lets give it another shot then
Eels by 12
Dragons by 10
Storm by 6
Warriors by 2
Broncos by 10
Sharks by 12
Roosters by 16
Panthers by 14
Best of luck everyone.
Submitted by KellysLoot on
My tips for round 22
eels
dragons
storm
knights
broncos
sharks
roosters
panthers
Submitted by Islander on
Well said baggy, the test for your boys tonight is how they respond mentally after a big win against one of the premiership favourites, although I dont think the Broncos will go too deep into the finals.
My first team in the NRL is the Roosters, its a close one for second between the Eels and the Knights.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Tipsters have abandoned the cowboys this week i have them as rockets roughie this week as ever gamble responsibly.
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Hey Islander and hows it going.
You been on the kava mate.....I know you like Chooks (as a team), but not 16 pts margin in this one. Each to his own and good luck.
Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
I wish you well there Rocky.
Cows home game, but I feel Storm have come to consolidate their finals finishing order. They want the week off for rest up and any niggles. Then a new ballgame starts. They are showing the goods, but they'll want to hope their bubble doesn't burst.
Pouring rain here in the Bx, at the moment - whats the forecast at yours.
Good luck with it Rock - not eagle.
Cheers - Big Pete
Submitted by Dragons-fanboy on
Hello everyone, my tips for this week are:
Eels by 12- The Eels showed why they are one of the contenders this year. Great performance even without Gutho coming from 12-0 down early in the game. This should be a great clash as it's retro round and the Eels and Bulldogs have a rich rivalry, Eels to come out on top here.
Dragons by 10- Tomorrow night will be a special night for the Dragons and Rabbits. I'm looking forward for this one at the mighty SCG. The mighty Dragons are in desperate need of a win. We were horrible last week. I believe that we will bounce back against the Bunnies who have been in bad form themselves.
Storm by 8- I just don't know what else to say about Storm, they are just too good, classy and are setting a good example. They'll march on and get yet another win here.
Knights by 10- Knights to upset the Warriors. Every year it happens to the Warriors, every year. They are always inconsistent and leave their worst performances to the end of the season. I believe that the Knights will be too good for the Warriors here and will win back to back for the first time in a long time and bring some more joy to the faithful in the Hunter.
Broncos by 2- Broncos too good here. Though Titans will be up for this one. The South Queensland clash. In fact the Broncos will be too don't you worry about that. Last time these two met they put on a magnificent game, why not do it again.
Sharks by 13- Sharks to put a dent in the Raiders' finals chances by getting a big win here at home.
Roosters by 8- Manly have been horrible defensively in the last two weeks. I think that they will improve in defence in this one, but it won't be enough to beat the flying Roosters here.
And finally... the Panthers by 4- This will be as close as people think. The Tigers tamed the Titans this week. They have a good chance of doing the same to the Panthers this week after last week, they were sensational. It'll be father v son, coach v player, how good will this clash be, don't worry about the battle of the cats, we've got Ivan Cleary v Nathan Cleary. Should be a great battle this one with Nathan's Panthers coming out on top here.
Awesome. Good luck with everyone's teams for this week. And with everyone's tips for this week. Exciting round coming up, the NRL are about to go old school... almost. Here I'll make it better, the NRL are going retro. Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Submitted by Dragons-fanboy on
My bad, I said the Tigers tamed the Titans this week. I obviously mean last week.
Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Submitted by christine on
Spartan warrior were are your tips your late ?
Submitted by The Thinker on
channel Nine must be loving all these Bulldogs games they keep broadcasting
Submitted by christine on
Baggy your boys played well but I would have preferred if they had left them scoreless ...
Submitted by a on
Bulldogs are no chance of making finals now
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Upset about the last couple of calls, you can't call a pass forward in the 77th minute that was more legitimate than others thrown by both sides, and there was nothing wrong with that drop out. But YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! positive +/- finally. +12 and 30 points
Submitted by GaryChesterUK on
Awful from the Dragons so far :(
Submitted by a on
Good comeback by Souths
Submitted by Steel Panther on
You won't have enjoyed that finish Johnny A...Saints cruising with only 5 to go and end up losing. Mary will be livid!! Dragons under a heap load of pressure now to stay in the eight.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
a you watching the Cowboys game tonight?
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Panthers get up it'll really upset the apple cart.
Submitted by The Thinker on
No shortage of courage from the Cowboys tonight. Respect.
Submitted by Hardyards on
Good evening fellow footy fans, wow, that was a hard, fast physical game. Sad we lost, but really impressed with how the Boys held on even though they were buggered. Well done storm, but I think we have shown they can be beat. Awesome turn up by the north, over 21000 I think. Here's hoping our injured get better real soon. Storm are the team to go all the way.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Lost with the cowboys money well spent should of put more on the rabbits responsibility sucks.
Submitted by a on
Sadly Steel I was the game was really sad hopefully next week against the Panthers we will be Back hey Hardyards Tailspin and Mary S
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