Round eleven selections

Three things The Thinker learned in round ten

  1. The value of home ground advantage appears to be diminishing – through the last five rounds teams playing at home won 54% of games (compared to 67% through the first five rounds).
  2. With the Dragons and the Panthers in the top two, and the Rabbitohs, Roosters, Tigers and Sharks in the top eight it's becoming clear that Sydney teams are dominating the competition this season.
  3. Cameron Smith tried to make a wish on the weekend. Not granted.

Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers – Thursday night – Panthers Stadium

I can see Cleary now the pain has gone. Nathan Cleary returns for the Panthers in time to give his old man a few headaches. Maloney has stepped up with the absence of Cleary and there is some risk they may take a game or two to find their feet as a couple. The Tigers are a genuine top eight team and the return of Russell Packer makes them more formidable. That said, the Panthers are undefeated at Panthers Stadium this season and there should be a pretty good crowd on hand (by Thursday night standards) to push them home. It's the game of the round I say.

Verdict – Panthers by 7

Result – Panthers 16 defeated Tigers 2

Parramatta Eels vs New Zealand Warriors – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

Some of the Eels were in tears after their loss to the Bulldogs in round ten, and so they should be. They've won less games than every other team in the NRL and that's a long way from where most expected them to be this season. I have a gut feel (and it's all it is) that they'll give us a show on Friday night. The crowd will be tiny on Friday night (it's not easy getting to ANZ Stadium for a 6pm kick-off) and I actually think the Eels will respond to that postively rather than negatively. Hopefully they look at all those empty seats and tell themselves they're getting the crowd they deserve. The Warriors, so consistent early in the year, seem to be drifting back to their inconsistent unpredictable ways. The Kiwis are a warm favourite, and should be, but I'm taking them on.

Verdict – Eels by 4

Result – Warriors 24 defeated Eels 14

Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

At the start of the season I was talking about how lucky the Roosters were with the draw. They never left Sydney through rounds 1 to 9, and they were mostly average throughout. Last week they skipped town and gave us their best performance all year. Maybe they just needed to get out of Sydney (I know that's how I feel about Sydney if I've been there for more than a long weekend). The road trip continues as they head north to Brisbane, and a repeat of the form we saw in New Zealand wins this game. A read through of the Broncos results this year is a grim read indeed. They've won five games this year but you could argue they were lucky to win four of those. They certainly weren't unlucky with any of their five losses. I think something is wrong. A big loss here and it's time to start asking the tough questions.

Verdict – Roosters by 8

Result – Broncos 28 defeated Roosters 22

Gold Coast Titans vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday afternoon – CBus Super Stadium

A few important (likely) inclusions for the Titans this weekend with Peats and Arrow expected to return (watch for the official team lists though). They return to their home ground for just the third time this season where their performances have been better than usual (a narrow win over the Raiders and a one point loss to the Sharks). Jarrod Wallace has inked a long term deal and is the sort of character that will reward the team with a best-on-ground performance. I wouldn't be surprised if the rest of the Titans pack follow his lead and give that speedy Titans backline a chance to show its wares.

Verdict – Titans by 8

Result – Titans 33 defeated Knights 26

North Queensland Cowboys vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Saturday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

Deeply concerned with the performances of the Cowboys this season, the Thinker is hauling himself onto a plane and heading north to watch this game in person. Hopefully my attendance is enough to drag the tropical giants out of their slumber and give this competition one almighty shake. They aren't playing like it though. The Rabbitohs on the other hand, are over-performing at the minute and head north after comprehensively outplaying the competition front-runners last weekend. Given the form on the board the Rabbitohs pick themselves...but I hope I'm wrong.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 2

Result – Rabbitohs 20 defeated Cowboys 19

Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday night – AAMI Park

Well it's hard not to mention Cameron Smith given the big news...and he's not even playing this weekend. Wow! An emotional time for the purple machine (if a machine can feel emotion) and I expect the Storm to lift on the back of this news (his availability for Melbourne throughout the Origin period of the season is a big boost to the clubs prospects). Manly impressed against the Broncos but I'm doubting that form at the minute, and backing up after a win in Brisbane with a win in Melbourne is a big ask.

Verdict – Storm by 4

Result – Sea Eagles 24 defeated Storm 4

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – Glen WIllow Oval

The people of Mudgee jag a very good game of the football with the table-topping Dragons taking on the always entertaining Raiders. That the game gets the Sunday afternoon timeslot sweetens the deal. Both sides will be looking to bounce back after surprising losses last round. With conditions to suit attacking football I have to stick with the Dragons, who have scored more points this season than all others. Their defence is the second best too (behind the Chooks surprisingly) and that's good enough for me. Looks a cracking game of footy and a Raiders win wouldn't surprise me but...

Verdict – Dragons by 10

Result – Dragons 25 defeated Raiders 18

Cronulla Sharks vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – Southern Cross Group Stadium

I'm not having a lot of luck tipping against the Sharks in recent weeks – call me a slow learner but I'll tip them this time. In the last four weeks they've beaten the Panthers, Titans, Eels and Raiders. Recent wins by the Bulldogs over the 15th placed Cowboys and the 16th placed Eels isn't enough to convince me they're anything but an also-ran this season.

Verdict – Sharks by 10

Result – Sharks 22 defeated Bulldogs 16

Wally Lewis - round eleven selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • PANTHERS vs Tigers
  • EELS vs Warriors
  • BRONCOS vs Roosters
  • Titans vs KNIGHTS
  • COWBOYS vs Rabbitohs
  • STORM vs Sea Eagles
  • DRAGONS vs Raiders
  • Sharks vs BULLDOGS

Comments

NuL1F3's picture

I do understand that, I had intended to post my picks on Wednesday but then for some reason completely forgot. Figured I would post them anyway regardless of credibility. :)

NuL1F3's picture

Mate.... Cowboys definitely lost that one, a Cowboys loss rather than Rabbitohs win. That being said, anyone else expect more form them (Rabbitohs) after the ass whopping they gave Dragons last week?

BigPeteBx's picture

Good evening Manyana - that 50cent coin gets about and must be a good token of luck for you.
I also saw that mentioned at ZT.
Cheers and keep well - Big Pete

BigPeteBx's picture

Cheers Christine and thanks for posting.
Like most treatments, we take things as they come but you've been taking it for yonks. Yr Thinker friends are here and supporting you.
Keep well - Big Pete

BigPeteBx's picture

Good luck with it Drago F/Boy.
Dragons are in Mudgee playing this round and it's cool climate over this way, which suits Raiders like icy Canberra.
Big weekend for Mudgee as accommodation has been booked out due to Goree Cup horse races as well.
Haven't seen/heard much of our mate Johnny Awesome - he knows the area well. Not necessarily the vineyards/cellars, either.
I've tipped Drags by 7pt margin, at a few spots.

Cheers and keep well Old Son
Big Pete

BigPeteBx's picture

Howdy Newbie.
The ole Triple J ay.
A former local radio DJ we knew here, went to work at 2JJJ.
Now there isn't a lot of age difference between us, well now that I've just added another year this week (Taurus remember).
Do you recall the name Jason Wayne at 2JJJ - try about late 70's Bro.
Some were game enough to come forth and disclose something about themselves, as their isn't really a profile page on Thinker site for "members" to add.
Cheers and keep well - Big Pete

BigPeteBx's picture

Very true Mary S, very true about this site.
Its really spread its wings here, to cater for all sorts.Thinker site isn't like some of the more commercial ones, where they have banners for different topics or codes, or posts/blogs etc. So Thinker has allowed to a mix. It keeps us alive, but our reason for being, is footy tipping and what stems from it.
Cheers - Big Pete

BigPeteBx's picture

Thanks Steely.
I think I'll watch the replay. They usually do a re-run of a Sunday arvo, but I haven't sourced it out yet. I always watched the game when it was midnight here kick-off, as we were usually partying. Birthday partying.
I'm hoping me Devils will come home. Michael Carrick has retired at end of regular season (last week) and Jose Mourinho has taken him under his wing to replace his departing assistant mgr/coach. That will keep Carrick at the club, because as a former player, who suffered a few injuries and absences, he'll be good for the team and relating to players.
There are several players tonight that need a big shot, because they've been low par, for quite a bit of this season. Chelsea has issues I feel, with players not wanting Conte as manager, so my impression was, they rebelled on him. I think Chelsea are targeting Spurs manager, Pochettino. We'll see what eventuates, in the world of UK Football
Cheers Steely and thanks for mentioning FA Cup for tonight.
Big Pete

NuL1F3's picture

What is happening with Storm?! This will make the last 4 picks I've lost whilst my brother is thus far having a perfect weekend! I almost want to start rooting for his picks so that he achieves it lol.

a's picture

A send of for the 1st time since 2014 the judiciary will have lots of work to do

NuL1F3's picture

Yeah, fair bit of biffo in that game!

Rocket Ryan's picture

That's probably the worst I've ever seen the Storm play they were really poor in so many areas what's even more annoying in this game of ours is where when defending the goal line the referees give the defending team a number of penalties against them for being inside the 10 when everybody is frustrated and the game slowed down they then give the offending team a warning this usually leads to finally someone in the sin bin then that player gets 50 seconds to walk off while everyone gets ready to defend the line again how about we just go straight to the sin bin it's not as if these fools don't expect it.

christine's picture

Big pete
Thanks for your post & congratulations on your teams win but if you haven't had a chance to watch the game yet I suggest you do , Melbourne at their worst & if belly ache has anything to do with it you won't see them play a game that way again , anyway congrats on your teams win & I think the nrl has a few rules of their own to fix after that one ...

christine's picture

Thinker
We should really get your thoughts on last nights game between storm / manly with who is responsible for the error with how long the player in question had been in the bin & who should be in charge of making sure it doesn't happen again , I for one think the nrl have brought in knew rules this season on players but they don't seam to get their own rules right , your thoughts on this would be appreciated thinker ...

mark ashford's picture

Baggy, Rocket and anyone else interested, the efforts of Milford & Friend this weekend were disgraceful as were the efforts of guys deliberately dropping the ball while being tackled.
Milford and Friend should have got 10 mins each for unsportsmanlike play. (is there such a rule?)
Refs warning captains of upcoming sendoffs is a joke.
The highly paid players of today should have at least a rudimentary understanding of the rules. They are not young school children who perhaps need a warning or two to curb unacceptable behavior.
I'm sure the refs are doing their best to improve the game but can only do as instructed by the head of referees.
Not very often I don't tip my Broncs...knew this would happen.
Thought the Penalty against the Cows with just seconds to go was grossly unfair, they had done enough to win the game.
So many injuries to major players in most of the teams.
With Smith, Thurston, Cronk and now probably Scott out for QLD it's going to be an interesting side for Kevie to pick.
Don't start salivating yet you Blues, Qld loves the underdog status.

mark ashford's picture

Hi Christine
Hope this finds you as well as can be.
Apparently it's up to the club to record and police the time of a sin binning. The NRL may look at a fine (or perhaps a warning ((tongue in cheek)). Doesn't happen very often so perhaps should be forgiven as a simple mistake by the Manly timekeeper.
Storm were woeful, Manly came for a win and well done to them.
Just as a matter of interest. Most of us have declared our loyalty to one club or another. Do we have many Storm fans here?

Baggy_Gee's picture

Yeah, I was just as disgusted with what Steel pointed out in the Eels game. Just finished watching and it is endemic across all teams. Just BS "gamesmanship", FFS go back to being proper sportsmen, and play within the spirit of the game not letter of the law.

christine's picture

Mark
Yes You support storm as well as broncos although broncos are your no.1 team but I can't believe mark that Curtis scott only got 2 weeks out of all that & apasi got only 1 week but walker is out for 6 weeks with a fractured eye socket so where is the justice in that , it all seemed to be a case of pass the buck at the end of the game as to who was responsible for letting a player back on the field before there 10 mins in the bin was up & surely by now you would think the nrl has been running this great game of ours long enough to know there own rules by now , shame on you nrl shame on you ...

Steel Panther's picture

Mark if you get a chance watch the Will Smith incident in the Eels v Warriors game that Baggy refers to. I thought this was at the top end of disgraceful when it comes to the ruck penalties. NRL desperately need to address this.

I didn't see the Storm game but there's a lot of talk about it Christine. I turned the tv off in disgust at the Cows losing late!!!

Baggy your BOYS got on a roll and grabbed the lead. The momentum swinger was the penalty young Moses gave away giving the Warriors a piggy back out of their own 20. I think they scored in the resulting set.

BigPeteBx's picture

@Mark A
@Christine
Lot of bad blood has been spilt, between Storm and Manly, over several seasons now.
Me thinks The Battle of Brookvale (approx Aug 2011) kicked it off and then that Grand Final in 2011, when Adam Blair and Glen Stewart were sent off and wanted to keep going on the sideline, which I think attracted more players to join in, kept the ball rolling.
Against no supporters here, but I often said to a work mate, that if a player gets sent off, for an incident where a player is out injured for x weeks, then the penalty should be the same as it takes for the injured player to return. I hate violence in sport and imagine what the kids watching may think.
As for timekeeping the sin bin, one would have thought that NRL had an official for that, or allow The Bunker to run the stop watch/clock.
Club officials are open to error, can easily happen, at the pace the code is run today. Then again, home & visiting club could supply the "sin bin judge", to act in conjunction/unison - surely both can't be wrong.

Cheers folks and have a good week - and keep well.
Big Pete

christine's picture

Big pete
Forgive my lateness with birthday wishes but happy birthday for this week xx ...

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have returned from my trip to North Queensland and my visit all but got the Cowboys over the line on Saturday night (almost).

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp. Most of us got 5 or 6 with a sprinkling of 7's from a few of the cleverer ones.

Christine,

I think such things should be officiated by officials. There were a lot of complicating circumstances in that game but it's the sort of thing they should be getting right.

Thankfully, Manly won easily...or things would be a lot more controversial.

christine's picture

Can anyone please answer a ? for me Q. if you are sent off for 10 minutes in the last 5 minutes of a game does that mean you have to miss the first 5 minutes of the next game you play ? ( i'm asking this for my father ) ...

a's picture

Christine no you don't you only miss the remaining game and maybe golden point

christine's picture

Thanks
Thinker & "a" for your responses to my Q's it's appreciated . Christine ...

manyana's picture

Thanks Big Pete. Yes, might have to keep using it, this round is about the best I've had so far this season.
Sorry for the late reply, but I've been "off air" for a couple of days.
Now I'm trying to catch up with about 200 emails. (They keep having pups when I don't (can't) check them every day). lol.
This round was another that had everything, including a punch-up.
Still very hard to pick the winners, as form seems to go out the window every week.
As for some of the ref's calls ?????????.
Cheers for now, manyana.

manyana's picture

Hi Mark, I'm like Christine, I usually tip the Broncos, but haven't been all that impressed with how they play.
If I have a team, it's the Broncos, but when I have my tipping hat on, I just take the team that I hope will win.
Fingers burnt this week by the Broncos........Serves me right. lol.

manyana's picture

Sportsmanship seems to have gone out the window. The penalties given for "a player being in the play the ball area", were ridiculous, but until there is a rule change, or a clarification of the rule, the Refs, have to enforce it. Agree with Big Pete about the time a player is out with injury should be the same for the player who caused the injury.
Cheers to all, manyana.

BrilliantBroncos's picture

So much for Broncos not having a chance lol

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