Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters – Friday night – Panthers Stadium
I think there are five genuine premiership contenders left in the running, and most people would agree who those five contenders are. The Panthers have won the minor premiership by a hefty margin, and minor premierships don't get the recognition I think they deserve...so kudos for that. They've won two minor premiership prior to this, and went on to win the grand final on both occasions. The other four contenders this season are the Storm, Roosters, Raiders and Rabbitohs. Penrith have beaten every one of them this season, but here's the rub. Penrith has only had to play those four teams once each, and they were the home team every time. Three of those wins were early in the season when the Panthers were flying under the radar. That said, their win over the Raiders in round 13 was pretty bloody dominant. Their last seven games have been against what I would call also-rans (Warriors, Sharks, Tigers, Broncos, Eels, Cowboys and Bulldogs). They can only beat what's in front of them, but three of their last four games were against the three bottom teams. They've had a very good draw tis what Im saying. The Roosters had to play the Storm, Raiders and Rabbitohs twice this season. The Storm had to play the Roosters, Raiders and Rabbitohs twice this season. Tougher competition, but a top four finish for both sides nonetheless. The Panthers and Roosters clashed all the way back in round one at this venue. The Roosters led early, but were run down late 20-14. Note that the Roosters were backing up from a World Club Challenge on the other side of the planet in late February. I think they ran out of legs against a fit young team playing at home. Tipping a team that conceded 60 points a week ago seems unusual, particularly against a side that has lost just one game all year, but finals football is a different beast. In the 2019 finals series the Chooks played the Rabbitohs, the Storm and the Raiders. Those three were in the top four that year, and the Chooks beat them all. Interestingly, those teams mentioned (Roosters, Rabbitohs, Storm, Raiders) are four of the five teams in contention this year. The other one, the Panthers, didn't play in the finals at all. They're young, they're exciting, and they're talented, but I think limited big game experience brings them undone.
Verdict – Roosters by 4
Result – Panthers 29 defeated Roosters 28
Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday afternoon – GIO Stadium
If I'm going to have a crack at the Panthers and their draw it would be remiss of me not to have a crack at the Sharks. Their draw was so easy their price to win the premiership was almost cut in half after the draw was released. Despite every advantage, the Sharkies have fallen into the top eight, losing as many games as they won. They also conceded as many points as they scored (480), and they haven't beaten another team in the eight all season. Not any of them. Not even once. The Knights, barely a top eight team themselves, put seven tries on them three weeks ago. They had their best chance last week, playing at home against a Raiders outfit with nine of their best players rested. They still lost, and they still conceded 38 points. One week later they face them again in Canberra, and the Raiders welcome back Nicoll-Klokstad, Wighton, Croker, Rapana, George Williams, Bateman, Whitehead, Papalii and Tapine. The Sharks do bring a few players back this weekend too (Townsend, Dugan, Talakai and Katoa), but this does look like a lop-sided contest. The Sharks could win if they niggle so much the Raiders lose their cool, but it's a long-shot.
Verdict – Raiders by 20
Result – Raiders 32 defeated Sharks 20
Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday night – Suncorp Stadium
It's been a peculiar year for a whole bunch of reasons, and one of those reasons is the Eels finishing the season in third position. They've had a pretty good year, by Eels standards at least, but they do look like the 'one of these things is not like the other, which one is different, do you know' team in the top four. They've done enough to win enough games, but the second half of the season looks pedestrian at best - a 2 point win over the Bulldogs, a 2 point win over the Sharks, a 2 point loss to the Dragons, a 38-0 loss to the Rabbits, a 6 point win over the Warriors, an 18 point loss to the Panthers, a 14 point win over the hopeless Broncos and a 4 point win over the Tigers. Somewhere in there they also beat the Storm 14-0, but the Storm were missing Cameron Smith, Munster, Hughes, Jesse Bromwich and Vunivalu. Those five will all be back on Saturday night, plus a whole bunch of other proper footballers who have had a week off. The Eels are treading water, and now they face a near to full-strength Storm at a venue where the purple machine regularly win by 50. There are no certainties in life and football, but you can only tip one team in this.
Verdict – Storm by 22
Result – Storm 36 defeated Eels 24
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday night – ANZ Stadium
Did I say there were no certainties in life? The Rabbits rack up 60 against the premiership favourites while the Knights get given a footballing lesson by a team that missed the top eight. That team the Rabbitohs scored 60 against beat the Knights by 30 points in round 18. It all looks ominous for the Novascastrians, unless the Bunnies put in a performance like they did against the Bulldogs two weeks ago. That's possible, but unlikely.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 38
Result – Rabbitohs 46 defeated Knights 20
Wally Lewis - finals week one selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning
- PANTHERS vs Roosters
- RAIDERS vs Sharks
- STORM vs Eels
- RABBITOHS vs Knights
Comments
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Yes Mark A - better and good luck next year. But also the fact that Tiger pointed the bone at me, early in the season and I fell behind in Thinker tipping.
No mate, I'm not saying Storm and singling them out, as many tackles have three. Its just in Kings case, its the way it was applied and the heavy twist that was occasioned in doing so.
Craig Bellamy hails from this way and I take my hat off to him, for his success in coaching. But, as I told many a friend, many years ago, he would eventually go back to Qld club coaching and idolise the nice weather, once more, for pre-retirement. I may be right, I may be wrong, but it appears that technical/coaching director role, is looking good after next season, if it is to be the case.
Keep well mate - Big Pete
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Credit to you newbie and cheers.
Let’s face it, if Panthers has lost I would have copped it relentlessly from every Tom Dick and Mary, yet Panthers win and we hear nothing from any of them. Not unexpected of course, because I already had a fair gauge on the character of most. Well done to you and all the best next week. I think you may run out of infantry but who knows. Still a chance of a Panthers Rooster GF. To the Panthers, all year it’s not been about how we win, just scoring more points than the other team is what it’s about. We are just two more wins from the greatest ever finishing run in Rugby League history. That’s where our eyes are focused, and as for the ears, well, just having a rest for now, listening to sweet lullabies.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
@ Coach
Nice song mate. Being of Irish heritage myself, I remember well the Fureys were one of my dear old (since passed) dad’s favourite bands. Still remember downloading this song along with many others that had the 16 “connection” and burning them onto a disc so he could gift it to his grand-daughter (my niece) on her 16th birthday. A nice reminder, thanks man 😍.
Enjoy the lullabies 😉
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
No i just cant.
Submitted by Mary S on
To all Panthers fans,
You will be thrilled with the results gained this season by the team you support, and their ability last night to win their match over Roosters, particularly through Cleary's apparent calm & focused kick, to nail the field goal that clinched the deal.
Its great to be proud of achievements well deserved.
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Mary S on
Hi Newbie (& other Rooster fans)
The recovery of your team from last weeks result was phenomenal, and because of it, I was really disappointed Roosters did not win.
You have every reason to be very proud of the team you support.
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Rocket no worries. You are all (no)- class. Expect no more from a sore loser - and no bigger this year than you,
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Cheers Mary. Apologies for tarring you with the wrong brush.
Submitted by Mary S on
Sportsmanship has been an integral part of my way of life Coach, and therefore I give credit, and recognition of a job well done, where it is due.
I also recognise that one can be disappointed, or overlooked, for having not achieved the result one was hoping for, where continued encouragement is required, or perhaps a different approach.
To me - that's life!!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Appreciate Mary. I definitely love the banter and I often give congrats when all’s said and done. I reckon there’s a place for a mixture. Each to there own though I guess.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Happy to accept what has to be. has to be. Still pretty good.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NAEppFUWLfc
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Coach,
I'm gonna wade in here & offer my congratulations to Penrith. Last night football was a winner with both teams dishing up a beauty. Penrith certainly have looked the goods all season. I keep waiting for them to lose but they keep delivering. Had the Cleary's stayed in NZ, young Nathan would be our number 7. Oh if only....
Have enjoyed watching them but not so sure on your taste of music. Stick to the footy banter and leave the music selections to Newbie. Enjoy a well earned week off.
Submitted by Couch Potato on
Cheers Steel. The rest enjoy your quiet long weekend. Will be good for you.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Sorry that one from the couch again, little proof anyway that the first one was me.
Submitted by a on
Congrats on your win coach
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Cheers a. Same excited you and Mary had in 2015. Not knowing how it will finish but happy to be in it.
Submitted by Christine on
Panthers played well coach ibwill give them that but i didn't see fhe game as i havd no foxtel this season
Submitted by Mary S on
Hi Christine,
I'm not sure if you have access to this, but often on the NRL website, they have a full game available - usually the following day, where it can be found after the story on the Match Report.
It isn't the same feeling of anticipation (when you know the result) as the live show, but the Panthers/Roosters match is available on
https://www.nrl.com/tv/matches/telstra-premiership/2020/finals-week-1/fu...
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thanks Christine. Neither do I. Was on channel 9. Looks like you’ll see Souths for free on Sunday.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Wow the women in Roosters jerseys did great. Cock a doodle doo I say. Great stuff.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Coach
Didn't see the whole game as I went to bed around half time (I'm ageing and need my beauty sleep) when it looked pretty even. You must be stoked to have such a "cool head" as Nathan Cleary in the team.
I will always think of him as Nathan (cool hand luke) Cleary.
Congratulations where congratulations are due. It's an amazing winning streak, you can now start that chest thumping but please not too loud.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Christine
Following up on what Coach has said all 4 finals are on free to air #9.
Two more today and one on Sunday. If you're interested the NRLW is currently on #9 Warriors -v- Broncos.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Went to bed at half-time? Must have assumed it was all over. Cheers anyway.
Nothing’s for certain as far as winning a premiership goes.
2004 won by a point over saints - weeks rest - lost the prelim
2014 won by a point over roosters - weeks rest - lost the prelim
2020 won by a point over roosters - weeks rest - question mark question mark
Submitted by mark ashford on
Coach
Your team now has a week off to get over any little niggles and I believe
you have one of your best under investigation from judiciary. I think he may be in trouble as he turned JWH upside down. Either way you should be confident. Only team I can see in your way is the Storm. Anyway good luck with your next two games. If the Panthers win the GF I will be happy for you.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I expect one of us to get two weeks off. His last two suspensions have been ridiculous imo, so this one has chance even though he actually saved it and put him safely down on his back. JWH for no doubt the 50th time in his career has collected someone high for no loss.
Sharks at the moment, if they take down the Raiders, will be the 11th time out of 18, that two teams meeting in the last round of the season, have played finals week 1 for a different result. 11/18 !
Submitted by Guru Craig on
Was a nice game, well done Panthers even if the refs did 'Manage' them back into the game at 10-0. Must have been a shock to the Roosters not to have everything go their way.
Canberra are living up to the Guru's tip, first half of awful errors and lack of discipline. Titans would beat both these teams here, Canberra would want to hope for a better second half because they are playing like trash.
Melbourne are absolute locks and Souths need only turn up.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Coach
If your player has history then it's most likely he will get a bit of a holiday. JWH on the other hand has more history than when Captain Cook landed here. He is one player I dislike always leading with his elbow when running up the ball, I'm surprised he hasn't seriously injured someone. I thought I'd heard somewhere he was retiring after this year I for one will be happy to see him go.
Yes Sharkies and Raiders are going at it like it's finals footy, wait a minute it is finals footy. Raiders look a bit shell shocked.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I think you’re clutching at paper thin straws, super scoop. Any evidence to back up your vague claim at being robbed? Talking through your dwindling kick again I would guess.
Note Cleary, Ivan, made that claim in a game Penrith convincingly won against Canberra, not based on sour grapes because we lost.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Souths thought they only needed to turn up against the Dogs two weeks ago. Interesting.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Something that has been on my mind for a while and last night + tonight brings it closer.
1990 GF Penrith v Ricky Stuart
1991 GF Penrith v Ricky Stuart
2003 GF Penrith v Ricky Stuart
2020 GF (..??) Penrith v Ricky Stuart
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Not after what I saw tonight Coach. How can a team make so many basic mistakes & still win. I thought they were bloody awful.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Awful one week, brilliant the next? Anyway it’s a possibly especially now that the winner of next week’s Roosters/Raiders goes to the opposite prelim.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Super scoop, if Melbourne are the lock, then Parra must be the key.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Papenhuyzen wearing no.1 packed into lock towards the end of the 1st half. Obviously the new rule of only forwards allowed to pack in, depends on who’s playing.
Submitted by Guru Craig on
I don't think that rule is in effect yet, it was trialled in the NQ v Bris game.
Quite a few mistakes from The Covid Stormer's in that win, full credit to the Eels who played their best 40min all year in that first half, that second try of theirs was amazing. Still, they get another shot next week.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
New rule implimented or not, it’s pretty clear that this is the new agreed expectation of all teams, every team would have had input, and for the Storm to say, well stuff everyone, we are going to abuse the loophole (not yet covered up) for as long as possible, is just so true to form. They have cheated their way to victory via salary cap - essentially fielding a stack of players they would never have been able to afford, been the creator of the grapple, the crusher, the chicken wing, and the hip drop, and now that the league says it’s not in the spirit of the game to have a bigger forward out in the line defending while your smallest back fits into the end of the scrum, they say you need to give us a start date. They are a such a horrible excuse for a rugby league club.
Submitted by Mary S on
foxsports.com.au
The NRL will experiment with rule changes in two games in Round 20 with the aim of avoiding a blunder like the one seen in South Sydney’s loss to Canterbury.
Under the rule changes which will be trialled in the Broncos’s clash with the Cowboys and Sunday’s Warriors v Manly match, referees who think a try has been scored will award it without consulting the bunker.
Up until the conversion attempt is taken, the bunker will be able to review the try and overturn the referee’s decision.
If the referee believes a try hasn’t been scored they stop the game and send the decision up as a “no try” as normal.
In other rules to be trialled, only forwards will be allowed to pack into scrums.
Clubs will have to nominate 10 forwards among their final 17-man squads and referees will ensure they pack down at scrum time.
After a six again has been awarded all defending players except those who have taken up a position as marker(s) must “retire 10 metres from the point at which the ball is played or to their own goal line”.
All defending players are required to be “in line” with the referee marking the 10 metres.
The referee will call “go” when the ball has been played backwards and then the defensive line is entitled to move forward. Players who jump off the 10 metres early will be considered to be in breach of the 10 metre rule. Touch judges are to assist the referee in monitoring and enforcing the 10 metre rule.
The handover touchline rule concerns where play is stopped because the ball, or a player in possession of the ball has gone into touch, other than for a 40/20 or 20/40 kick, play will be restarted with a play the ball by the non-offending team.
The play the ball is to occur 10 metres in from touch, opposite where the ball entered touch, but no closer than 10 metres from a goal line.
The offending team for the purpose of this rule is the team which last touched the ball before it entered touch.
For infringements such as knock-ons, forward passes and accidental offsides, the Referee will continue to order a scrum to be packed.
Submitted by a on
Wait does the 20/40 rule exist because we haven’t even seen one
Submitted by Coach Potato on
a, the 20/4o is a current rule, created on a chalkboard somewhere in NRL headquarter but is so ridiculous, there’s never been on. No team has ever even attempted one. Ridiculous to give up field position if it doesn’t come up. With the normal 40/20, there’s no harm if it doesn’t come off. Better to scrap it if it doesn’t work. The only time a team would try it is if they were so desperate and behind on the scoreboard, that it wasn’t going to matter if it didn’t find touch. Is that what we want ? Little trick rules to help a team getting outplayed on the day ?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Hi Mary, I understand about a few things being trialled, but this one is no doubt coming into play because it is causing teams to play not in the spirit of the game. Teams putting their smallest players in the front row of a scrum, it’s difficult to watch as a footy fan. Once they announced the change I’m sure it sent a message to all teams that this kind of play is no different to the dummy-half passing the ball into an opposition defender lying on the ground, no different to falling down trying to play the ball with no one around you. Storm culture is imbedded in bending the rules in order to win. Unfortunately, there’s no easy fix to that one.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Can’t believe we are facing having to play a home prelim at the away ground - again. This time v Souths.
Don’t tell me if Parra had won through, that their prelim wouldn’t be at Bankwest which is only a few thousand bigger than Panthers.
Would be happy to play Souths at BankWest as a compromise but for so many reasons, can’t be allowed to lose out home ground advantage to the away team. Team 6 on the ladder. It’s just criminal.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The only saviour seems to be Newcastle by any score. Go Knights and I mean now. Today.
Submitted by a on
I’m pretty sure Anthony Milford attempt one by the way I think that they should also scrap the kick for touch from the 20 meter optional restart because no team ever seems to attempt it
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Low IQ would fully explain that one, a.
Submitted by Guru Craig on
Cameron Smith has got a few 20m drop outs and yesterday in the W-NRL the NZ ladies were successful with a 20/50 - same as the men's 20/40, first one and only one the Guru has seen.
These odd rules are great when we get to see a player like the great Cam Smith take advantage.
Any player can pack into a scrum right now so that's fine, all teams are doing it, until the rule is official who cares.
Guru is looking for a big win from the Bennett Bunnies 20+
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Teams will play not in the spirit of the game if the rules allow. Saying all teams are playing backs in the scrums at the moment is just not true.
Submitted by manyana on
Apologies Thinker, I didn't realize that the tipping competition included the finals. Silly me!!
Will definitely make sure that I get them in next week.
To think that I got 4 from 4 too.
Ah well, serves me right for not reading what you wrote.
manyana.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Pack the front row with backs, Parra has shown that on occassion if you push in a scrum (shock, horror) you can win against the head. It is a gamble if they enforce that trial rule, as good scrimmage teams might just put their forwards in and push the little guys off the ball. Bit shattered both mentally and physically after last night, it was hard filling the couldren up with noise when there was only 16000 of us, but those two tries should have been allowed. BTW Voyer, Mark any thoughts on Brenko Lee dropping into Shaun Lanes back long after he scored? Just in the interest of fairness based on your lambasting of Nathan Brown from earlier in the year?
Submitted by manyana on
Looks like I stuffed up with ball bingo too.
Not a good week for me all round.
manyana
Submitted by The Voyeur on
Baggy......agree that the Lee effort was a disgrace....but from my memory that was his first offence, vs the filth your man was dishing out in the first half of the season......good to see in the main he has turned over a new leaf and just playing footy now vs trying to be the tough guy.......I do recall the media also suggested he needed to change his game as he was spending more time on the sideline that adding value to his team
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