Round fourteen selections

Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm – Thursday night – Sydney Cricket Ground

It's fair to say these are the two most disliked clubs in the NRL right now. They're disliked, for the most part, because they are the two most professional clubs in the NRL - I imagine both teams wear it like a badge of honour. They have already given us the game of the season, when the Storm prevailed in golden point in Brisbane (in a game I was meant to attend, but didnt because...bah!). This time around they're playing in Sydney, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Josh Morris are returning for the Chooks, and the Storm are without Smith and Munster. The Chooks were without eight regular first graders last week, and despite that they still dropped one of their playmakers and goalkickers, and despite that they still won and never really looked like losing. In a year where club depth will be tested, the Roosters have already faced that test and passed - the pack that kept the Dragons in check last week will be bolstered by the inclusions of JWH, Cordnor, Chricton and SBW this season. The threepeat is not beyond them, and I never thought I would see another threepeat in the NRL in my lifetime.

Verdict – Roosters by 4

Result – Storm 24 defeated Roosters 6

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers – Friday night – Central Coast Stadium

Last week the Panthers equalled their longest ever winning streak, and on Friday night they get a chance to beat that record. For a while, the Panthers have flown under the radar, but just about everyone is starting to take notice. Not only are they winning, they are establishing their dominance in games early. For twelve weeks in a row, they have not conceded a point in the first 20 minutes of a game. Hetherington, on loan from the Panthers to the Warriors, has found a way to avoid playing his own team. Decapitating a prop forward is a bit extreme, but he got the result he wanted. The Warriors are, for this season at least, everyones second favourite NRL team. That they are outperforming the three Queensland teams astonishes me. They can't win this, and they might even get trounced, but I take my hat off to them regardless.

Verdict – Panthers by 20

Result – Panthers 18 defeated Warriors 12

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Friday night – Bankwest Stadium

A victory for the Eels on Friday night just about secures them a top four finish this season. They had to win ugly last weekend, but they still won (and Cronulla aren't the sort of team you want to playing ugly against). The Dragons have shown glimpses of what they are capable of in recent weeks, but they arent quite good enough to win against these top tier teams. Their pack will be weakened by the absence of Paul Vaughan and the probable absence of Tariq Sims and Jackson Ford, and they'll fall short again.

Verdict – Eels by 13

Result – Dragons 14 defeated Eels 12

Cronulla Sharks vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday afternoon – Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

Get ready folks for the weekly poke at the Sharks from The Thinker...and here it goes. Following the rescheduling of the NRL season after round two, the Sharks were blessed with the easiest draw since, well...forever really. In their last 11 games they've played just two top eight teams, and lost them both. Even with that very generous draw, they are hanging onto the fringe of the top eight by a fingernail. This is another relatively easy game for them, but the Titans are doing well with what they have, and deserve their ladder position as the highest Queensland NRL team. I can't quite tip them here, but sheesus mcsnickety I want to. Proctor plays game 250 and they're a much more dynamic team with AJ Brimson back in the fold. I'm with the Sharks by a whisker, but there is a whiff of an upset about this game.

Verdict – Sharks by 2

Result – Sharks 30 defeated Titans 18

North Queensland Cowboys vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Saturday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium

The Cowboys have lost nine of their last ten, and were soundly beaten by the Titans last start. As things stand, they are a very real chance at a wooden spoon this year (and have a look who they have to play in their last game of the season). Michael Morgan was scratchy at best in his return to the game, and is bound to be better for the run, but the Cowboys just aren't up to standard this season. The Bunnies aren't world beaters, but they are a professional outfit and they almost always pick up the two points in contests such as these.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 10

Result – Rabbitohs 31 defeated Cowboys 30

Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night – GIO Stadium

Back in the day, almost every time I gave the Broncos a good roasting, they would come out that weekend and be ten foot tall and bulletproof. Sadly, the Broncos have sunk so low that even a good old-fashioned spray from The Thinker can't awaken the sleeping giant of the NRL. So I can't get them up and going, the coach is stuck in Sydney, Pangai Jnr has joined a motorcycle gang, Boyd has quit the leadership group, and Staggs has started sending his resume to other clubs. Bring on round twenty, and a clash with the Cowboys to avoid the wooden spoon. 2020...what a ratlicker of a year.

Verdict – Raiders by 32

Result – Raiders 36 defeated Broncos 8

Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday afternoon – Mcdonald Jones Stadium

Manly, gallant as ever, continue to fight the good fight, but the injury toll on the northern beaches continues to mount. On Sunday they are without their twin towers up front. They have coped in the past without one of their big props, but two? With that in mind, I expect the Knights forwards to win the yardage battle (particularly at home), and Pearce, Green and Ponga know what to do from there. Pretty confident with this one.

Verdict – Knights by 8

Result – Knights 26 defeated Sea Eagles 24

Wests Tigers vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – Bankwest Stadium

I dont think the Bulldogs deserve the wooden spoon this year, and this is the sort of game they should be looking at winning if they want to avoid the dreaded cutlery. They're in this game up to their floppy ears, and the Tigers are looking like a team that are running out of petrol, but in the end I came back to a simple philosophy - which team will score the most points? Who scores wins. The Tigers often score 20 or more points a game. The only times they haven't this season were all against teams in the top eight (Panthers, Eels, Raiders, Knights and Rabbitohs). Meanwhile the Bulldogs have scored 20 or more points just twice all year (and both times were against the Dragons). The Tigers aren't going as well as they were when they beat the Bulldogs 34-6 earlier this season. This will be closer than that, but I think they can sneak home.

Verdict – Tigers by 4

Result – Tigers 29 defeated Bulldogs 28

Wally Lewis - round fourteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • ROOSTERS vs Storm
  • Warriors vs PANTHERS
  • EELS vs Dragons
  • SHARKS vs Titans
  • Cowboys vs RABBITOHS
  • RAIDERS vs Broncos
  • KNIGHTS vs Sea Eagles
  • TIGERS vs Bulldogs

Comments

tigerholic's picture

Morning Thinker, Morning All Tipsters
Well, that was some weekend of footy, I'm glad its over especially where my Tigers are concerned. I had a quick look at this week and it appears to be some straight forward picks which we all know means upsets a plenty.

I'm still amazed at some of the decisions the ref's and the bunker have been making of late, the commentators and fans can see what the decision should be but the bunker has a different rule book to most.

Bit cold up here in QLD this morning, had some nice rain late last week which was nice. I hope Bigpete and all of those that are copping the rough weather at the moment are all going ok.

Hello Christine, I hope you are doing ok, I led you astray last week and we only managed 5/8, sorry about that. You may want to follow someone else while I dust myself off.

Have a great week folks

Tiger

Christine's picture

Tiger
like my loyalty to tipping Queensland even though i live in nsw, i do not abandon ship in time of crisis this week is a joint effort ...

Rocket Ryan's picture

Better get back to taking favourites you goose

Rocket Ryan's picture

Im calling on mister siebold to resign immediately the game plan we bring is as poor as i can remember he has lost control of the players and the faith and support of the members we are a shambles off and on the field and the rubber meets the road at his office its better to jump before you are pushed.

tigerholic's picture

Morning Rocket

I see you have still opted to go without someone to proof read your posts, let me know if you need a hand cause I know a few kids in the 3rd grade that could do a better job.

I didn't want to say anything about your position on the tipping ladder, you are that far down I thought you had given up. I can ask around to see if anyone is willing to help you out but I think with your nasty comments people won't be too willing.

Tiger

Mary S's picture

Hi BigPeteBx & Buzz105,

Congratulations BigPeteBx on winning 'A's" 3 strike competition, and congratulations also to Buzz105 for his remarkable 10 straight picks!!

Cheers,
Mary

tigerholic's picture

BigPeteBx
Well done mate, huge effort.

Tiger

mark ashford's picture

Rocket
Don't worry about grammer mate it's what you're saying that's important. I agree completely Siebold must go now. The Broncs should grab Paul Green or Kevvie before this gets any worse. Surely the so called management must take action now before we lose any more players.

tigerholic's picture

Mark
Broncos won't sack Seibold, they have already said that publicly. He has a few years left of his contract doesn't he?, it would cost the club a fortune.

In reality he does seem to have lost the support of the players, I can't remember the Broncos ever having a worse season.

Maybe there should be a bottom half of the table finals series, your team and mine just have a show at winning something.

Tiger

mark ashford's picture

Tiger
Getting rid of Siebold is a must. The Broncs are supposedly the wealthiest club in the comp and I'm sure they can come to some arrangement with him and employ someone else. Pay for the Coach is not included in the cap. Siebold has 3 years left on his contract and it worries how much damage will be done if he stays. Not only players looking elsewhere but sponsors also going, maybe to the Titans who could be a force (can you hear me laughing) next year but seriously they could feature in 2021 with the players they are recruiting.
A bottom 8 comp would be fun, maybe played as warm up games for the real finals.

Guru Craig's picture

Brisbane should hire Gordy as CEO, let the 'Raging Bull' into the boardroom, too many clowns in this circus, the occasional Goering keeps everyone on their toes, bit of blood is good for moral.

The question The Guru is pondering, when it comes to his beloved Bronco's, is...Will the club begin to fix the problem now? or....are they going to place this #$%&ing disaster at the feet of the new CEO? It's an important decision, because right now they need a Raging Bull, someone to drain the swamp. A CEO who has the fortitude to make changes at board level, remove the coaching staff and pay several current contracted players to play for other clubs.

Brisbane have not hit rock bottom yet, if nothing changes, then nothing will change. Brisbane will not win another game in season 2020. Unless they change the coach.

Seibull #$%&ed up big time, he has lost the majority of the playing group, now taking a little holiday in Sydney.... now is the time to cut out the cancer, get the penicillin shot, you've had your dance with the MBA showgirl, she gave you nasty cooties, everyone knows now.... best thing to do is accept it, kick her to the curb and move on. Bring in your new CEO, Coach and rip the band-aids off. Restructure now, 2020 is goooone.

a's picture

Time for siebord to go they have to it’s their only decision

Christine's picture

Seibold's a dead man walking ...

RoostersRule's picture

I hope the Broncos keep Seibold because I enjoy watching the shitty Bronx lose week after week because I hate the Broncos with a passion. It never gets old. I love it!

tigerholic's picture

Welcome RoostersRule

I love your comment mate but in the defence of our Bronco supporters on this site, it's easy to be like you are when your team has won two premierships in a row. It was interesting to see the Bronco's lose there for a while but for a super club like the Bronco's it is really not good. You have to ask and wonder just how deep the rot has set in.

As everyone on here has said recently except for me, the coach has to go!!

Tiger

Rocket Ryan's picture

Now now butcher or is the block talking.

Christine's picture

Looks like brocos supporters have lost tevita pangai jr they have torn up his conteact ...

mark ashford's picture

RoostersRule
Mate I understand your passion for your club and in some way your hatred of the Broncs. There is an old saying "you don't kick a dog when he is down" and the Broncs are certainly down. We have some excellent Rooster supporters here who don't stoop to your level. Another old saying is "what comes around goes around" and I'll remember your name.

mark ashford's picture

Mary S
Interesting article about coaches. I had no idea so many were coming up for grabs. Stability in coaches and players seems to be a thing of the past. The Broncos, once a powerhouse club seem to be self destructing and now with Tevita Pangai Jnr getting the sack, I wonder where it will all end.

newbie from perth's picture

Sa-wat-dee krup,

Looks like the match of the round will be Thurs night with my BBB up against the Storm. I know the Storm are missing some big names but I just cannot believe that the Roosters are such short favourites with the bookies. We’re still missing (according to the NRL website) JWH, Crichton, B. Morris and Cordner. Yeah, the Storm will have Smith and Munster out but still. Obviously I’m hoping my BBB will get up but not very confident at all. If a smart man wanted a “win-win” scenario he’d put a bet on the Storm to win. That way, if the Storm do win, he pockets some extra cash and if the Roosters win, well the Roosters win 😉. Yeah, a hard one for sure. OK, let’s get into it…

Roosters vs. Storm 50-50 @ SCG
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Roosters

Roosters
The Roosters made a quick start last week against the Dragons and got out to a 10-0 lead but the Dragons pegged them back and it was all tied up 10-10 going into the break. Even though the Roosters have 8 or 9 top players missing through injury (or dropped), they still had just a little extra class in their ranks to get over the line against the Dragons and ran out tough 24-16 winners over an undaunted Dragons side. Luke Keary had a burster in the second half, scoring the winning try and having a hand in two more. He was definitely the difference between the Roosters winning or losing in my book. A terrific performance from Taukeiaho who ran 288 metres (of which 132 were post contact), made 37 tackles and kicked 2 conversion goals. A fantastic 80 minute effort. It was great to see Mitch Aubusson score a try in his 300th game. The Roosters had 3 blokes taking try conversions. Taukeiaho 2/3 Lam 0/1 and Hutchinson 0/1. Trent needs to bring Kyle Flanagan back 😉. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Roosters 49% Dragons 51%
Kicking Metres - Roosters 660 Dragons 755
Forced Drop Outs - Roosters 2 Dragons 5
Penalties Conceded - Roosters 4 Dragons 1

Storm
The Storm were pretty messy early in the game last week against the Bulldogs and even though they made a few too many errors in the last 10 minutes or so of the first half, they did manage to score 4 tries in that first 40 (and a field goal to boot) and led 23-4 at the break. Another 3 tries in the second half and they ran out comfortable winners 41-10. Last week was yet another example of a top tier side not at their best but getting the win regardless. The Storm not at their best were still far too good for a persistent Bulldogs outfit. The obvious downside in their win was the loss of Munster for 2-3 weeks with another medial ligament injury. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Storm 52 Bulldogs 48
Line Breaks - Storm 4 Bulldogs 1
Tackle Breaks - Storm 33 Bulldogs 17
Kick Defusal - Storm 88% Bulldogs 100%
Errors - Storm 12 Bulldogs 11
Penalties Conceded - Storm 8 Bulldogs 5

Verdict: Man, this is a hard one to pick. Do I listen to my head or my heart? I might live to regret this (and more than happy to sacrifice a tipping point if I’m wrong) but I’ll tip the Storm 😱.

Warriors vs. Panthers 35-65 @ Central Coast
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

Warriors
The Warriors jumped out to a 16-0 lead after just 17 minutes and at half-time were leading 20-10. They started the second half much like the first and after 46 minutes were ahead 26-10. They didn’t manage any points after that and had to withstand a Manly comeback. They had 2 blokes sent to the bin and both occasions Manly scored tries. Makes you wonder. In wet and greasy conditions their determined defence held on for the final 12 minutes and they ran out 26-22 winners. Great games from Kodi Nikorima and Chanel Harris-Tavita. Stats show that 4 of the 5 Warrior tries came off their combined kicks. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Warriors 47% Manly 53%
Line Breaks - Warriors 3 Manly 7
Tackle Breaks - Warriors 14 Manly 31
Kick Defusal - Warriors 82% Manly 40%
Ineffective Tackles - Warriors 16 Manly 7
Sin Bins - Warriors 2

Panthers
The Panthers first 40 last week against the Raiders was excellent but their second 40 was lacking to be honest. They scored 4 tries in the first half, kept the Raiders scoreless and went into the break leading 24-0. The Raiders looked gone but fought back in the second 40 and the Panthers did what they had to do and ran out 28-12 winners. It’s looking like the Panthers are a real (good) chance in winning the flag this year. While it was an outstanding first half effort, they went into their shell (attack-wise) in the second 40 and had to settle for just 2 penalty goals, one of which was a minute before the final siren. But on balance it was a very good win against quality opposition. Once again, Nathan Cleary demonstrated some superb "game management" as well as a couple of great defensive efforts and I’m wondering how good he’s gonna be after a few more years. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Panthers 51% Raiders 49%
Bombs - Panthers 8 Raiders 1
Missed Tackles - Panthers 26 Raiders 19
Ineffective Tackles - Panthers 8 Raiders 2

Verdict: No brainer, Panthers for me.

Eels vs. Dragons 60-40 @ Bankwest
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Eels

Eels
The Eels had one hell of a tussle with the Sharks last week. With just one try each in the first half, the Eels walked off to sheds leading with a skinny 6-4 margin. The weather was absolutely atrocious and the errors (from both sides) were quite understandable and could be forgiven. In an even tougher second half, the Eels had to fend off a determined Sharks outfit and thanks to a late penalty, managed to scrape in 14-12 winners. They weren't at their best but they were cool under pressure and managed to get the chocolates. No disrespect intended but they were lucky to win that as I felt the Sharks were the better side on the day. But as we all know, a win is a win and good sides find a way. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Sharks 51% Eels 49%
Completion Rate - Sharks 76% Eels 75%
Dummy Passes - Sharks 30 Eels 4
Forced Drop Outs - Sharks 3 Eels 6
Ineffective Tackles - Sharks 17 Eels 9
Errors - Sharks 10 Eels 15
Penalties Conceded - Sharks 7 Eels 2

Dragons
The Dragons found themselves down by 10 points early in the first half last week against the Roosters but fought their way back to level things up 10-10 heading into the sheds. The Dragons had a red-hot crack but couldn’t quite do enough to get them home. A (very) late consolation try from Dufty proved they hadn’t given up but it was a case of too little, too late unfortunately and they eventually went down 24-16. The Dragons were always a chance when Tristian Sailor kicked into Ryan Hall’s corner. One big mistake I saw was when Keary put up that bomb in the second half and the Dragons just let it bounce. Tedesco grabbed it and passed to Aubusson who passed to Manu and the Roosters scored. Seriously? I don’t know much, but something I do know is that you never, never, never, let a bombed ball bounce! Sheesh! Zac Lomax scored 2 tries, always looked dangerous and kept the Dragons in the match for almost the entire game. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Dragons 51% Roosters 49%
Kicking Metres - Dragons 755 Roosters 660
Forced Drop Outs - Dragons 5 Roosters 2
Penalties Conceded - Dragons 1 Roosters 4

Verdict: The Eels had excuses last week (the weather) and they should do better this week. Eels for me.

Sharks vs. Titans 65-35 @ Jubilee
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks

Sharks
In atrocious conditions, the Sharks had a tough encounter in the first half last week against the Eels. Both sides scored a solitary try each but the Sharks found themselves behind 6-4 at the break. Lots of errors from both sides but completely understandable given the conditions. The Sharks were right in it in the second 40 and got it to 12-12 but they gave away a penalty right at the end and the Sharks lost a tight one 14-12. Without any disrespect to the Eels, I thought the Sharks were the better side on the day (3 tries to 2) but the best side doesn’t always win as we all know. Shaun Johnson played an absolute ripper on a losing side. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Sharks 51% Eels 49%
Completion Rate - Sharks 76% Eels 75%
Dummy Passes - Sharks 30 Eels 4
Forced Drop Outs - Sharks 3 Eels 6
Ineffective Tackles - Sharks 17 Eels 9
Errors - Sharks 10 Eels 15
Penalties Conceded - Sharks 7 Eels 2

Titans
The Titans were just too good for the Cowboys in the first half last week and they ran in 4 tries to go to the break leading 20-0. It was 10 points each in the second half but the Titans had done all the hard work in the first half and were (fairly) easy 30-10 winners. The Cowboys did come back in the second half but the Titans didn’t really look like losing that one. It took them until the 69th minute but Sami made sure of it late when he scored the sealer. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Titans 55% Cowboys 45%
Completion Rate - Titans 79% Cowboys 67%
Post Contact Metres - Titans 652 Cowboys 551
Missed Tackles - Titans 19 Cowboys 34

Verdict: Based on what I saw last week I’m tipping the Sharks here.

Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs 35-65 @ Townsville
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs

Cowboys
The Cowboys had a shocker of a first half last week against the Titans and found themselves down 20-0 going into the sheds. Too many errors and penalties were the main reasons for their downfall. An improved effort in the second half where they scored 2 tries in 3 minutes (the first one was very fortunate though) but they just ran out of steam and finally lost it 30-10. Apparently this is the first time in 10 years that the Cowboys have lost 6 in a row. Will it be seven this week? Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Titans 55% Cowboys 45%
Completion Rate - Titans 79% Cowboys 67%
Post Contact Metres - Titans 652 Cowboys 551
Missed Tackles - Titans 19 Cowboys 34

Rabbitohs
There was nothing in it for the first 30 minutes last week against the Broncos but the Rabbitohs scored 2 tries in 5 minutes and the Rabbitohs went into the sheds with a 20-6 lead. After a good first half, a converted try and a penalty in the second saw the Rabbitohs win comfortably 28-10. Very good games from Walker, Reynolds and Burgess. It was an especially good effort from Adam Reynolds where he fashioned multiple repeat sets with astute kicking, scored a try and kicked 6 goals. It looked like he was in total control from beginning to end. All in all it was a pretty professional outing from the Rabbitohs you’d have to say. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Rabbitohs 57% Broncos 43%
Kick Return Metres - Rabbitohs 276 Broncos 90
Forced Drop Outs - Rabbitohs 5 Broncos 0
Kick Defusal - Rabbitohs 100% Broncos 69%
Penalties Conceded - Rabbitohs 4 Broncos 11

Verdict: Yeah, gotta get on the Rabbitohs here.

Raiders vs. Broncos 75-25 @ GIO
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Raiders

Raiders
Not a great first-half effort from the Raiders last week against the Panthers I have to say. They were kept scoreless while letting in 4 tries and went into the sheds 24-0 down. As expected (maybe) they came back in the second half and scored 2 tries of their own (both from CNK) but the Panthers’ defence just stood up. The Panthers simply outplayed the Raiders in the first half and to come back against a side who are in the form they’re in was just asking a bit much and the Raiders finally went down 28-12. Still, a good effort against top tier opposition, especially given the Raiders’ poor start. I’m starting to wonder if the “shock and awe” approach is the Raiders’ weak point. Hmm. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Raiders 49% Panthers 51%
Bombs - Raiders 1 Panthers 8
Missed Tackles - Raiders 19 Panthers 26
Ineffective Tackles - Raiders 2 Panthers 8

Broncos
The Broncos were right in it for the first 30 minutes last week against the Rabbitohs but let in two more tries and the Rabbitohs led 20-6 at the break. The Broncos hit back 4 minutes after the restart but a converted try and a penalty to the Rabbitohs and the Broncos lost it 28-10. There was some pretty “soft” goal-line defence from the Broncos that allowed Nicholls to take a quick tap from 10 metres out and “stroll” past Haas, Lodge and Boyd to score. It’s no use those 3 guys looking at each other after the fact, these sorts of things just shouldn’t happen. Other than that, I thought the Broncos had a decent crack with strong efforts from Fifita and Pangai Junior. Shame Junior got the boot (I think). Such is life 🙄. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Broncos 43% Rabbitohs 57%
Kick Return Metres - Broncos 90 Rabbitohs 276
Forced Drop Outs - Broncos 0 Rabbitohs 5
Kick Defusal - Broncos 69% Rabbitohs 100%
Penalties Conceded - Broncos 11 Rabbitohs 4

Verdict: What can I say? Raiders in this one.

Knights vs. Manly 65-35 @ McDonald Jones
Ladder Position = Knights
Bookies Favourite = Knights

Knights
A very good effort in the first half last week against the Tigers saw the Knights head to the sheds leading 24-4. That, my friends, is where they won it. The Knights stepped it up another notch in the second half and completely dominated the Tigers, racking up another 20 points (and keeping their opposition scoreless) to run out (very) easy 44-4 winners. They simply applied too much pressure on the Tigers and were unrelenting in the process. Pearce and Green combined well together and Ponga caused the Tigers all sorts of problems. So too did Klemmer and Saifiti. Looks like Green might’ve got himself some sort of fame by getting a win against the same side 2 weeks in a row while playing for different sides. “Cosmic” to say the least. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Knights 53% Tigers 47%
Completion Rate - Knights 89% Tigers 67%
Post Contact Metres - Knights 805 Tigers 641
Line Breaks - Knights 8 Tigers 1
Kicking Metres - Knights 641 Tigers 434
Errors - Knights 6 Tigers 15

Manly
OK, like a few other clubs (including their opponents last week), Manly have some injury concerns but still, not many would’ve thought they’d lose at home last week. The Warriors jumped them and had a 16-0 lead after just 17 minutes and at half-time were leading Manly 20-10. The second half started out badly for Manly and they were behind 26-10 after 46 minutes. Manly put together a late comeback after scoring tries at the 56 and 66 minute marks to get within 4 points but it just wasn’t enough. Interesting to note that 2 of their 4 tries came when the Warriors had blokes in the bin. Hmm. More injury dramas when they lost Fonua-Blake and Taupau during the game. How much more can they take? Poor ol’ Des Hasler's 400th match as coach wasn’t one he’d wanna remember you’d have to say. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Manly 53% Warriors 47%
Line Breaks - Manly 7 Warriors 3
Tackle Breaks - Manly 31 Warriors 14
Kick Defusal - Manly 40% Warriors 82%
Ineffective Tackles - Manly 7 Warriors 16

Verdict: I just can’t make a case for Manly so I’m tipping the Knights.

Tigers vs. Bulldogs 60-40 @ Bankwest
Ladder Position = Tigers
Bookies Favourite = Tigers

Tigers
What can I say about the Tigers’ effort last week against the Knights? Basically “8 tries to 1” tells the story. And the Tigers try was 5 minutes before half-time. Speaking of half-time, the poor ol’ Tigers went into the sheds trailing 24-4 and things weren’t looking all that good. They were absolutely dominated in the second half and were kept scoreless while the Knights put on another 20 and the Tigers finished with a disappointing 44-4 loss. I just thought they might’ve done a little better considering it was 250 game milestone matches for both Benji Marshall and Chris Lawrence. Their reaction however was disappointingly lacking. Such a shame really. I know things like this happen but they just weren’t able to endure the Knights’ pressure. The Tigers defence was very poor to say the least. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Tigers 47% Knights 53%
Completion Rate - Tigers 67% Knights 89%
Post Contact Metres - Tigers 641 Knights 805
Line Breaks - Tigers 1 Knights 8
Kicking Metres - Tigers 434 Knights 641
Errors - Tigers 15 Knights 6

Bulldogs
The Bulldogs did look semi-dangerous in the early stages of the game last week against the Storm, mainly due to the “home” side gifting them territory through errors. The Bulldogs were throwing the ball around (which in itself is not such a bad thing to do) but the Addo-Carr intercept try off of Lewis’ attempted cut-out pass in the 9th minute was the start of the “Dog Day Afternoon” (with the Storm running in another 6 tries after that). The Bulldogs let in 4 tries in the first half and found themselves down 23-4 at the break. The Storm gave them some opportunities through some errors but the Bulldogs couldn’t capitalise. Pretty much the same in the second half and the Bulldogs eventually went down 41-10. They showed little glimpses every now and then but they were never really in the hunt. Match stats worth a mention:

Possession - Bulldogs 48 Storm 52
Line Breaks - Bulldogs 1 Storm 4
Tackle Breaks - Bulldogs 17 Storm 33
Kick Defusal - Bulldogs 100% Storm 88%
Errors - Bulldogs 11 Storm 12
Penalties Conceded - Bulldogs 5 Storm 8

Verdict: The question I’m asking myself is can the Tigers play as bad as they did last week or will they come out and make a statement? It’s all about pride sometimes. Yeah, I’ll give ‘em another chance. Tigers for me.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

This won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, especially if images of foetuses disturb you. If so, just close your eyes and listen 😍. Enjoy…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7K72X4eo_s

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week people. Cheers.

tigerholic's picture

Morning Newbie
Just read your stats and thoughts on the games this week, very interesting and detailed mate. One big question I have for you is your tip in the Roosters/Storm match.
Roosters with players returning in JWH, Cordner and Storm with players out and you have tipped Storm- Good luck there.

Tiger

newbie from perth's picture

G’day Tiger,

Yeah, the decision to tip the Storm was a tough one for sure. I was just going by what I read on the NRL website (as of yesterday at 4:01pm) concerning team lists and it mentioned no return for JWH, Crichton, B. Morris and Cordner yet so based on that I weighed up the pros & cons and thought hard and long and even though it broke my heart I tipped the Storm. Hey, don’t get me wrong, I’ll be more than happy to lose the point if the Mighty Chooks do win and I’ll be cock-a-doodle-doin’ all over the place 🐔.

Meh, that’s the “theory” anyway and I will be ropeable if the NRL player lists are not up-to-date. If JWH and Cordner are in fact playing then I’d more than likely change the tip. Actually I might just go and see if other websites mention anything. Stay tuned…

Cheers mate and have a good one…

Mary S's picture

The pain continues for Broncos and fans, with Pangai jnr being fined $30,000.00 and being stood down indefinitely!

https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/08/12/pangai-fined-$30000-stood-down-indefinitely/

Mary (no cheers for the above)

mark ashford's picture

Well, the Broncos continue on their self destruct way both on and off the field. RoostersRule will no doubt be happy. Players breaking the "bubble" rule, Siebold gone back to Sydney "for personal reasons" and threatening to call in the police and sue "people". Players removing themselves from the leadership group and look where they are on the ladder. This is surely the worst time in the clubs history. Is there any management at Red Hill who can grow a set and stop this rot, if not it will continue into 2021.

tigerholic's picture

Hey Mark

We are definitely in unprecedented times and the footy season is certainly no different.

The Broncos have been a power house of the NRL for years and this is their lowest time that anyone can remember.

The shit just gets deeper and deeper as the season goes on, I think the Broncos need to withdraw from the remainder of the season and salvage something, that something may just be the desperate need and fortitude it took to make the decision to can their season.

They need a huge overhaul and an independent review, a player clean out that will take the club 1-3 years to recover from. In all honestly they have the roster to be competitive and I think the issues are from the top through to the bottom.

Mate, I for one will not kick a bloke when he is this low, I feel for you and the Brisbane fans. I hope they can sort their shit out for all concerned.

Tiger

tigerholic's picture

Hey Christine

My tips will be in tomorrow after golf. I am going the same as Thinker and there are two games that worry me, they are The Roosters V Storm and Tigers V Dogs.

What do you reckon? I'm thinking the Storm have two big outs and Cam Smith is one, the Roosters are still without Cordner, JWH and one of the Morris boys but I think they still have the ammo to get past the Storm.

Take Care

Tiger

BigPeteBx's picture

Thanks Tiger for you thoughts re weather about our way.
We'd had the lot around the countryside, copped winds from the snow and more rain forecasted. Our local dam has now risen to 50.9%, it holds a fair bit but the last drought took a lot away and introduced water restrictions in our LGA.

Cheers mate and keep well, as we continue tipping and posting here at Thinker site.
BigPete Bx

BigPeteBx's picture

Many thanks Mary and Tiger re The 3 Strike Comp.
It was touch and go, for a while there, when the two strikes crept in.
But credit goes to Buzz105 on his ten straight picks, without error.
As we use the common picks, there is a time, when we have to go bottom of the ladder and knowing if there'll be a turnaround.

Cheers all and another great "a" 3 Strikes Comp had.
Big Pete (The Last Man Standing) and you all keep well.

newbie from perth's picture

@ Mary

Thanks for the link. Yeah, I go to the “casualty ward” sometimes to check on things but seeing as I usually put my “novels” up on a Tuesday or Wednesday night I have to take what information is current before then.

I’ve had another look today and I was hoping things might’ve changed (then I’d have a reason to change my tip back to the 🐔) but it still shows as just Josh Morris coming back this week but I’m super excited that they “guesstimate” we’ll have JWH, B. Morris, Crichton and Tupou back in Round 15. If so, watch out Tigers 🙏. Thanks again for the link young lady, it’s much appreciated.

Guru Craig's picture

The Bronco's Circus is going well, plenty of entertainment. Rumour mill is on spin cycle with Mr Seibull...It's actually quite interesting, The Guru remembers a movie, some time ago starring Dustin Hoffman, where they went to war with Canada as a distraction to strengthen the case for the sitting el'president'e...Hmmmmm, strange things happen when you have a self confessed member of Mensa(sic) writing the script and pulling on dem strings...one game laughing, next crying. Pre-prepared statements with clear reasons for blame laid out ready for the post game press con.
The Guru has a theory here...and it reminds him of Milli Vanilli...

Well, Season 2020. Right now just about every club is playing fairly well, apart from injuries. The NZ Warrior Bro's are not following the script, the boys from Australia Jnr are going well, The Guru has a little speculator on NZ +17.5 @1.97 LINE. There are a few games this round where the line looks quite favourable to the tipping enthusiast. Mel were +7.5 @ 1.97 and 4.00 H2H!!, those odds have shrunken to +5.5 @ 1.90 and 2.70 H2H, expect those to get a bit closer before kick off. Melbourne probably on form should be favourite here. Titans line looks healthy too.

Roosters v Melbourne

Melbourne - The Guru is taking a punt here and tipping the Covid Stormers, its true, they're a couple of Cameron's short of a full squad, however the rest of the team are going pretty well. Chookies have more injuries than the Storm and The G is not buying the media hype. Should be a close game, you could prob make some cash by going 1-12 both ways here. The Guru feels Mel can win the battle upfront.

Panthers v Warriors

Penrith - But not by as much as some are saying. The Guru is on the NZ refugees +17.5 @ 1.97. NZ have been playing for the future, for Gus and for Brownie and for future glory. Whatever they've been doing in Australia, its working. The Panthers are popping off, The Guru was waiting for the fall but Crazy Ivans men have been consistently good.
The Guru isnt quite sold yet on the Pennies in 2020.

Parramatta v StGeorge

Para - Just. This game could be a ripper. Apparently it's Mary McGreggor's last game as coach. The Guru doesn't know if that's true, but if it is, He expects the Dragon's players to blow some fire. To be fair The Guru feels that McGreggor has his team playing out of their skins, they are overachieving, coached to within a Bill Harrigan offside call against QLD in an origin match. The commentators have been saying this and that, but, bloody $%#, StGeorge have a mediocre roster, they are not good. There is no reason to realistically expect The Dragons to be a top 8 side with the players they have. Hunt is a 50/50 player at best, you will get a good performance out of him 50% of the time, rubbish the other 50. Same with whats his name...Used to play for the Bronco's, 5/8. He is ok, decent player, never going to be a star...etc etc for most of the roster. STG at the line look good.

Cronulla v Titans

Sharks - Probably. The Titans have been playing some good football. There is a lot to be impressed about with this side right now. The coast side are really playing for each other and look to be enjoying their jobs.
Cronulla have travelled well, they have got a few wins and a bit of confidence, the media seem to have organised a bandwagon...Guru isnt convinced. Close one, Titans +10 line looks solid.

Cowboys v Rabbits

Souffs - Hot date Wayne has been wining and dinning...lol. What a lot of nonsense the Media and NRL have been going on with. The Covid BS has about run its course with The Guru. Sick and Tired. WB doesn't have the China plague, everyone knows that, Buuuuut, because it the way things are...we must all hear the repeated nonsense bs rubbish over and over...political correctness. Souths will be too good. NQ will give an account of themselves for 30mins, then not so much.

Canberra v some blokes who are cold and looking for the Pokies.

The Raiders cant lose this one. Ricky would be a bit upset about last week, his side were alright, but Penrith were just better. The Guru actually agrees with Mad Ivan's comment's about the Green Machine being managed back into the game. If you watch, you can see that in many games, the ref will attempt to keep the penalty count close, marginal calls etc. Brisbane might put in a bit of heart without cap snowman at the helm or gentlemen's club or where ever he is..but, it wont be much. Brisbane wont win again in 2020! Free money.

Newcastle v Manly

Knights - all day on Sunday. Nova-special clear the mortgage or buy a yacht. Newcastle wont lose this game. Really 1.39??...The Guru is a happy Qlder, even if he lives in NSW. This game is about as good as it gets as far as morals go. Gamble responsibly, Rolls Royce's are lovely, especially in his'n'hers. The Guru is thinking about his perfect 2 car garage, Ferrari and...hmmm whats even good offroad nowadays that has a bit of go, something faster than Manly's dismal fall from top 8 grace anyway. Tip of the season so far.

Tigers v Bulldogs

Doggies - Go the Doggies. The Guru feels that there is usually two upsets per round and this is one of them. Canterbury have been giving a decent account of themselves lately, even though they haven't won many games. There is big talk and pie in the sky thinking happening. Although its yet to be seen how the players take the news, new coach and former grub player, Trent (have you ever know a good bloke named Trent?) Barrett has wielded the sickle and sacked all the nice old men who've been at the club since before WW2. Tigers are gooone. Bris looking to sign Mbye, prob good idea.

NuL1F3's picture

Good morning fellow tipsters,
First, congrats to Big Pete for winning the 'a' game! (and Buzz105's unbelievable 10 game run)

Storm (Really, this game could go either way)
Panthers
Eels
Titans (Taking a leap of faith Gold Coast will continue building momentum)
Rabbitohs
Raiders
Knights
Tigers

Once again tipping mostly with the masses, it's just been that kind of year I guess.

@Newbie not quite sold on the song but I loved the tv show that used it.

Here is my contribution:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIzDsGyxsQM

Good luck to all and peace!

newbie from perth's picture

@ Markus,

Well, there’s a first time for everything it seems bro’. Just clicked on that video you linked and I can say with “hand on heart” that that was the first time I’ve heard that song and have absolutely no idea who Stone Sour are/were. Obvious apologies if that makes anyone scratch their heads or face-palm but not my fault, I must’ve been doing something else at the time 😉.

But seriously, thanks for the share my brother. Never hurts to get exposed to new music (new for me at least). Cheers…

P.S. Now that’s the Guru I remember 😁. Great write-up bro’…

Dragons-fanboy's picture

Hey everyone, first off I would like to congratulate Big Pete on winning the a game and Buzz for getting the 10 straight. Almighty effort from both of you. My tips for this week are:

Roosters by 6 – Both of these sides have some casualties coming into this one. From what I know, the Roosters are still missing JWH, Cordner, Tupou and B. Morris but they do welcome back Josh Morris who is a key addition to the Roosters. The Storm on the other hand, have Munster and Cameron Smith out who are some key personnel missing for the Storm. I think that the Roosters have the edge in the halves due to them having a chief playmaker in Keary. Luke Keary will be the key for the Roosters. I think this is where the Storm will be lacking tonight. But they do have the edge in the forwards but you never know come kick-off if JWH will play or not along with Cordner but those two are two key outs in the pack. I still think the Roosters have the ticker in them to beat the Storm. They have been showing some character even with so many injured and are still so professional. This won’t be as chaotic as that last meeting between the two but it will be very close to being. Home ground advantage may help the Chooks too. This was so hard for me to tip but it’s the Roosters for me in a tight one in what most definitely is the game of the round.

Panthers by 16 – Huge credit to the Warriors! The Warriors have around half of their team either injured or back in NZ and they have every reason to give up, they have had everything go against them but they still find a way to show plenty of heart and perform. Unbelievable stuff. But this week they face a huge challenge coming up against the ladder leading high flying Panthers. The Panthers just have too much talent across the park, and they will be too good for the Warriors here. If they win, it will be their record-breaking consecutive wins ever in which should be plenty of motivation for the Penrith boys. Would love to see the Warriors give it a red-hot crack but I am going with the Panthers to win and win well here to remain on top.

Eels by 10 – This one should be interesting. Given the fact that Mary has been sacked, how will he go coaching his final game? Will the players show up for him in his final game as coach for the Dragons? I really hope that we do but it will be a really tough ask coming up against the Parramatta Eels. The Eels are coming off a really tight win over the Sharks in dreadful conditions. The Dragons on the other hand, are coming off yet another loss to the Roosters where we were actually looking promising throughout the game and were in a position where we could win once again and end up going down due to some mistakes and some poor defence. We desperately need to stand up here against the Eels and with our finals hopes fizzling away, this is now do or die you would have to say in terms of our chances of making finals football. It has come to the point that we have to win this game. One for the players to send a message to Mary and to send him off on a good note and two to keep our season alive. Will we win though with everything to play for and some pressure coming into the game? We’ve done it before this season but I don’t think it’ll happen here. The Eels just keep on winning and the Dragons will have another loss in the bank. I want the boys to win it, but I must be realistic. Against the Eels at home, it is not going to happen unfortunately. But for what it is worth, c’mon boys! Give it to those Parra boys!

Sharks by 7 – This one will be a good game. The Sharks are coming into this with some good form. Winning four straight and taking the Eels to the limit. They probably deserved to beat the Eels too. The Titans on the other hand have brought in some good form coming into this one too, they took the Panthers and Roosters to contests and they smashed the Cowboys. And they are now the best team in Queensland now. This is a great sign for the Titans for the next few years. I think they are getting set for a really good 2021 season. You never know, they may just string together a few more wins in 2020. I give them a chance here but the Sharks will just be too good for them in the end. They will frustrate the Titans and hold them down for the full 80 and will be too tough in the end. The Titans are getting there but they aren’t quite that tough, gritty side like the Sharks are and although they can light it up like they did against the Cowboys, they don’t match the gritty style that the Sharks have and that plays right into the Sharks hands. I may just be plain wrong here you never know, we could even see an open game with plenty of entertaining footy being played but we’ll see what happens. Sharkies to remain in the 8.

Rabbitohs by 20 – The Cowboys have just been really poor. I would’ve thought they would’ve won last week against the Titans. With some experienced heads back and the fact that they took the Raiders to the limit, I would’ve thought that the Cowboys would’ve been too good for the Titans but oh how wrong was I! The Cowboys were completely outplayed and never looked like winning. They did get back into it at one stage but the Titans shut that down eventually. The Rabbitohs on the other hand, are coming off a good win over the Broncos and are looking good in the 8 at the moment. There only problem still remains against the top sides but here they play a lower end team in the Cowboys. I expect them to smash the Cowboys here if they keep their form up (against lower sides). Rabbitohs way too good here. I think it’s safe to say that Michael Morgan needs to work his way back into footy, it’ll maybe take a little time but we’ll see what happens.

Raiders by 28 – The Broncos are just in an absolute shambles at the moment. My god players getting into trouble, players wanting to leave, their coach staying in Sydney for personal reasons. This once very great club are going into a backwards spiral and they need to fix it as soon as possible before it becomes uncontrollable. I highly doubt they’ll care enough to show up here against the Raiders and the Raiders will want to bounce back after last week. I think that they will in a big way here. Saturday night on a cool Canberra night, good luck Broncos!

Knights by 12 – The Knights are coming off a massive win over the Tigers! Wow they were amazing on Saturday night. 44-4 they completely outplayed the Tigers in all areas of the game. That was impressive stuff indeed to indicate that the Knights are here to make the 8 this season. No more fall down this season that forces them out of the 8. This is well-deserved for the Knights I think but still they have to continue stringing up the wins and I think they will get another here. Manly’s injury woes are still there and they are coming off a loss to a team that they really should’ve beaten. They are now out of the 8 and are not looking good at all. It really shows the difference it makes to Manly being without Tommy Turbo and Fonua-Blake. Two players who are up there as Manly’s top players. They will remain without them and I think they won’t be good enough here and will suffer another loss to the Knights here. I see the Knights winning both the forwards and backline battles and with Daniel Saifiti back, that only strengthens their forward pack even more. His poor brother Jacob has now been put on the bench because of his brother’s return. I really hope that doesn’t affect their relationship ;P.

And finally… Tigers by 8 – The Tigers are coming off a horrific loss to the Knights last week. They were really disappointing, really disappointing. I can’t imagine how poor ol’ Madge will be feeling after that. I am sure he would’ve given them an almighty spray. They can’t fall asleep here and actually take the Dogs seriously otherwise they may actually lose this one. The Bulldogs always give it a crack and they do have a good record against the Tigers as well in recent seasons. If the Tigers aren’t careful, they may suffer another loss but I think they’ll be good enough to beat the Bulldogs. They have got to be don’t you think? They just cannot suffer another loss here to the team running last. Madge will absolutely lose it if they do. I think this will actually be a good game of footy here too. I rate the Bulldogs and give them a chance but I expect the Tigers boys to fire up a bit and get the chocolates here over a brave Bulldogs. Got to give my credits to Doeuihi for playing that game and going through it after all that happened in Lebanon and the emotion he showed in the end of the game was really sad to see.

Awesome! Good luck with everyone’s teams for this week and with everyone’s tips for this week. Cheers and enjoy the rest of your weeks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

mark ashford's picture

Tiger
Thanks for the comments about the Broncs, don't know if it's the answer but thanks anyway. And thanks to Newbie, DFB and a great offering from the Guru to help with our tips. Sorry I haven't been offering much lately or commenting on SOTW. The Broncos have me in a state of depression or is it disgust, not much difference.
Good luck to all with your tips.

Christine's picture

Stay true tiger stay true to your team my tips are the same as yours this week tiger bulldogs could pull something special out under a new coach but i can't tip them they do have the worst fan base ...

Christine's picture

Tiger
never under estimate storm ...

Rocket Ryan's picture

G the storm really did a job on the Roosters they never looked a chance better get the money hungry SBW out of cotton wool otherwise It could go off the rails real quick it'd be a real shame for some of the people on this site like Roosters rule and Broncos supporters who just love seeing the Roosters win

tigerholic's picture

Newbie
Well done mate, great work tipping against your team. The Roosters were never in it.

Tiger

Rocket Ryan's picture

Butcher RUOK

mark ashford's picture

Newbie
Have to take my hat off to your tipping skills going against your Chooks.
Your guys were a bit down on troops but the Storm were missing the 2 Camerons arguably their best players. Can't remember seeing a more relentless attack and determined defence.
Has anyone heard any news of Luke Cleary? It was awful to see him on the sideline struggling to breath. I hope whoever is coaching the Broncs that they are made to watch the game over and over.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Apparently only busted ribs Mark, nothing to worrying. How good are the Warriors going though? 6 points behind the ladder leaders under strength and falling apart. Inspiring stuff.

Steel Panther's picture

Certainly was another gallant and gutsy effort by the Warriors tonight Baggy. You can accept a loss when your team shows fight, heart and committment.

Good luck to your Eels tonight.

mark ashford's picture

Hey Baggy
"busted ribs" nothing to worry about, had to have a chuckle. Your Eels are looking good so far.
Steel Panther
Your Warriors only went down by 6 against a possible premiership team.
Don't know where all this is heading and where the Warriors will be playing this year and next but they can hold their heads up high.

Baggy_Gee's picture

When after the game they were thinking internal damage, a few busted ribs are a godsend. Bit saddened after that game, but sometime soon we will play in the dry and see how we go without the great equaliser.

mark ashford's picture

Baggy
Interesting to see the Dragons lift to get a win over the much favoured Eels, if only by a whisker. Dragons players in the shed after the game cheering and hugging the coach, who I must admit looked happy with the win. Pity they haven't tried a bit harder this season and "Mary" may still have a job.

Mary S's picture

Cowboys came oh-so-close to causing the second upset of the round.
They just needed someone like JT (or Reynolds) with goal-kicking abilities!!

Cheers to all,
Mary

tigerholic's picture

Hey Mary
You didn't back your team, what happened??

Tiger

a's picture

Looks like Kevin proctor is out of the season

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