Round twenty selections

Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys – Thursday night – Suncorp Stadium

The last time I was at the ground to see these two teams play was on the 12 September 2015. In terms of quality, it was the best game I've ever been at the ground to witness (that I was sitting right next to the Broncos interchange probably helped). A few weeks later those teams gave us one of the greatest grand finals in the history of the game. On Thursday night their 2020 campaigns come to a dismal end as 14th plays 16th. To shine so brightly, then to fall so far. The Titans have notched up as many (or more) wins in a month than these sides have done all year. Theoretically the Cowboys could still end up with the wooden spoon, but they would have to lose by 87 points to a team that hasn't beaten anybody. That only happens if the Cowboys plane disappears into Moreton Bay, so we may as well assume the Cowboys are safe. They may be safe, but I'm sure they would like to take some joy out of this season by winning the derby. It's something. Clearly the Broncos have more on the line, as a win gives them a chance at avoiding their first ever wooden spoon. Plenty of motivation there, but they've been motivated to perform for much of this season and continue to be found short. Team lists are yet to be finalised but Gamble is unlikely after a concussion last week. Croft probably returns, but hasn't had a great year. Turpin may return, but his hand wouldn't be 100%. David Fifita is definitely out, but Haas is expected to return. For the Cowboys, Mcguire and Asiata will return to bolster a pack that looked far better last week with Taumalolo back in the fray. It's hard to split these two, but for me it came down to this:

This is the last game for Gavin Cooper and Darius Boyd. I think the Cowboys desire to win for Coops will be stronger than the Broncos desire to win for Darius.

Verdict – Cowboys by 10

Result – Cowboys 32 defeated Broncos 16

Gold Coast Titans vs Newcastle Knights – Friday night – Cbus Super Stadium

There's a lot on the line in this game. Not so much for the Titans, although a win does ensure they finish 9th for the season. It means more to the Knights who can shore up 6th place and a home final next week. That's important, but it pales into insignificance alongside what this game means for Triple M league commentator Anthony Maroon. Maroon, not shy when it comes to outrageous statements, vowed to have a sex change operation should the Titans win five games in a row. So here we are, in the last round of the season, and the Titans are in form, at home, and on the verge of sending Maroon off for gender reassignment at Sydney Private Hospital. Male to female is a 7-10 day turnaround, which sees Maroon returning from injury in time for the grand final. An opportunity to be the first female caller of the NRL grand final awaits. Jai Arrow is taking this so seriously, he's shaved off his beautiful head of mullet in preparation for the match. They're up for this, and if both teams give their best it's close to the game of the round.

Verdict – Titans...with a Jai Arrow golden point try in the 89th minute

Result – Titans 36 defeated Knights 6

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

Whatever the outcome here, the Chooks finish the season in third place. That said, I'm sure they don't want to lose to their favourite rival a week out from the finals series. If the Rabbitohs win they can snare a home final next week providing the Knights lose, and I'm sure they don't want to lose to the Chooks either. A loss to the Bulldogs is hardly encouraging form from the Bunnies, and while they welcome back Gagai they lose the suspended Su'a who has been penalised for one of the hits of the season. The Chooks continued on their merry way with an entirely professional win over the Sharks, and they'll bring back Tedesco, Cordnor, Taukeiaho and Friend on Friday night. That's a lot of class, and they'll have too much of it this weekend.

Verdict – Roosters by 7

Result – Rabbitohs 60 defeated Roosters 8

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

I waited until team lists were announced before writing up the previews for the games after Friday night...and with good reason. No changes for the Bulldogs (on a rare winning streak of one) but the Panthers are giving Edwards, Kikau and Crichton a breather. Many of the key personel are still in the seventeen, but could get put in cotton wool at some point during the 80 minutes. This game gives Matt Burton a rare opportunity off the bench for the Panthers - he's a proper talent and I for one am keen to see him on the park. Regardless of the changes, the Panthers and Bulldogs are where they are on the ladder for a reason. That Panthers backline simply looks too strong.

Verdict – Panthers by 13

Result – Panthers 42 defeated Bulldogs 0

Cronulla Sharks vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday night – Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

The Raiders could have made the top four with a win here (providing the Eels lost), but it looks like they would rather finish 5th and host a home final. The Raiders have ten new inclusions for this game - they may have made more but Ricky ran out of fingers and/or players. The Sharks have had a dream draw this season, and have scraped into the top eight on the back of that. Every time they play a top eight team they lose, but this Raiders side only has 3-4 players that will make their list in the finals. Ricky Stuart should have plonked some money on the Sharks to cover the cost of his fine. The Sharks aren't specials, but if they can't win this what hope are they next week when they probably face the Raiders again?

Verdict – Sharks by 4

Result – Raiders 38 defeated Sharks 28

Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday night – Bankwest Stadium

The Tigers must be a little annoyed that they are in danger of losing 9th place to the Titans - it's a ladder position they usually have a stranglehold on most seasons. That's not enough reason for the Tigers to lift for this, but sending Benji Marshall out with a win could be (if Benji doesn't get one more season with someone it's madness). Note that this game starts after the Sharks/Raiders match. If the Raiders lose, the Eels are safely in the top four. They will also know the outcome of the Rabbitohs/Roosters match, and if the Roosters lose that the Eels could move to 3rd place. 3rd place means playing the Storm in Queensland which isn't much of a reward. I expect they would rather stay in western Sydney and play Penrith. Soooooo....a lot of things to consider here, but we need to make a pick now. I'm with the Eels to squeak home in this, because the forwards battle here looks like a real mis-match. I'm not remotely confident at all, but:

Verdict – Eels by 2

Result – Eels 28 defeated Tigers 24

New Zealand Warriors vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday afternoon – Central Coast Stadium

Two teams effectively tied for 11th, and with not a lot to play for here. The winner of this game finishes higher on the ladder than the loser...so that's something. It's fair to say one of these sides have over-achieved while the other under-achieved, and the under-achievers were particularly disappointing last week in their last game for the season at Brookvale. Whatever happens, the Warriors get to finally go home after this, so they'll be in high spirits. They're missing their fullback and captain, but Manly are missing their fullback too, and a whole lot more than that this year. I wonder when the Redcliffe Dolphins will start chasing Cherry-Evans for their inaugural season.

Verdict – Warriors by 8

Result – Warriors 40 defeated Sea Eagles 28

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm – Sunday night – Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

 

Ricky Stuart: I'm going to break the record for the most team changes in a single game.

Craig Bellamy: Hold my beer.

Dragons coach Dean Young compared his side to the under 8s last start. Harsh...but fair. In their last outing for the season they get to take on a bunch of randoms that have been handed Storm jumpers on the streets of the Sunshine Coast. Putting their feet up for the weekend are (deep breath) Smith, Munster, Kaufusi, Hughes, Bromwich, Bromwich, Lee, Addo-Carr, Olam, Asofa-Solomona, Vunivalu and Faasuamaleaui. It's extraordinary, and they'll still win.

Verdict – Storm by 2

Result – Dragons 30 defeated Storm 22

Wally Lewis - round twenty selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • BRONCOS vs Cowboys
  • Titans vs KNIGHTS
  • Rabbitohs vs ROOSTERS
  • Bulldogs vs PANTHERS
  • SHARKS vs Raiders
  • Tigers vs EELS
  • Warriors vs SEA EAGLES
  • DRAGONS vs Storm

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans,

I have updated the NRL ladder and tipping comp after round 19. No perfect rounds but plenty of sixes and sevens (Taka was the only tipster to pick the Bulldogs).

Bronco Legend holds a one point lead with a large pack in contention just behind. A reminder that this tipping comp includes all the finals, so still a way to go.

If anyone notices anything that needs attention with the scoring just let me know.

I will have my previews and selections for the final round of the season published on Tuesday/Wednesday.

All the best

The Thinker

Bronco Legend's picture

Hi Thinker,
Didn't know the finals were included so plenty of points to come and will make it very interesting indeed, its a pity there are some trolls on this site who have no sportsman ship at all and make worthless immature comments and i wont even bother commenting back to them they are a waste of time, well done to Taka the dogs played well and deserved the win, and yes there are a large pack behind me I'm under more pressure and stress than my Boncos. Any thoughts on the next NRL team coming into the comp?
Cheers
Bronco Legend

a's picture

Yeah I agree broncos legend hopefully the thinker bans those trolls

Anyway let’s move into football we are in for one hell of the last round hopefully my cowboys can have one last win

Christine's picture

"a" the cowboys have to win they are playing broncos no offense there bronco legend was intended by saying that it just reflects on broncos year i personally would like too see them come good but they have left it too late this season , pity really they have been good for years to now be like this lets hope next year they can turn things around ...

The Thinker's picture

@Broncos Legend

I don't have a real firm view about the next NRL team and where they should be located. The drums used to beat very loudly that there should be another QLD team (not as loudly this year with the Broncos and Cowboys doing so poorly). The Sunshine Coast are showing great support for the Storm, and there's reasons why the Redcliffe Dolphins makes a bit of a sense. Redcliffe doesn't have a large geographic footprint, but they have a proper history in the game, a fan base and a profitable business (and not many NRL clubs can say that). Plus, the NRL don't have a dolphins team, and a dolphin mascot running out onto the paddock in front of the team would be proper cool.

I think expansion is a way off yet anyway, and I can't see the NRL permanently re-locating a Sydney team. One of them (Wests Tigers/Sharks/Sea Eagles) should partner up with Western Australia and play 4 home games in Perth (in blocks of two so the travel doesn't kill them). They could sell WA membership packages that include tickets to the Perth games and a jersey. As that insurance rat would say....simples.

The Butcher's picture

Though I think it should be the Central Coast Bears it’s inevitable that the next team to join the NRL will be from Brisbane.
My money is on the Ipswich Toowoomba bid called the Western Corridor which will eventually be given an Aboriginal name. The area is fast growing and won’t impact the Broncos and Titans as much as Redcliffe would.
Redcliffe Dolphins? They’ll always be late onto the field. A mascot without legs that’s gonna work.

The Thinker's picture

@The Butcher

Dolphin mascot vs Shark mascot in a sideline pectoral fin slap-off is the contest we all need and deserve.

It should be on the undercard for the next Paul Gallen fight.

The Butcher's picture

Haha
They could play for the Split Enz cup?
Work that one out?

The Thinker's picture

Took me a while....it's a Finn thing :-)

Baggy_Gee's picture

I think Redcliffe is the best option, a lot of the Qcup teams have goodish T.V. infrastructure, it has relatively good public transport access, and it opens the top of the bay up to development. I would prefer Toowoomba as they have a wider access to youth from out west, it would also turn the entire depth of the S.E. corner into a three prong rugby centre, and it would make it easier to go see the BOYS play once a year.

Pro Tipper's picture

Gee ... Tipping the Titans to beat the Knights is a bit optimistic i reckon, i know they've won 4 games in a row but all of those wins have come against pretty mediocre teams. (Or should i say, solid teams that have been having a poor season). They'll run into a quality side this week, Knights 1-12 for me.

mark ashford's picture

Thinker
Just saw on the late afternoon news Redcliffe Dolphins are launching their bid to join the NRL tonight. Must agree with the Butcher (must I?) that the Ipswich/Toowoomba region should get a look in. Both of those cities have been an excellent breeding ground over the years.

a's picture

I think central qld should get something to

mark ashford's picture

"a"
Yes Central QLD should get a look in but where would you base the team. Mackay Canecutters would be a start or Rockhampton Brothers. Both areas have produced great players but sufficient sponsors will be a little short on the ground. We'll wait and see.

Guru Craig's picture

Love it Thinker...Dolphins all the way.

Guru was at the GF in 2015 to watch his Bronco's give NQ their only win...Was signed and sealed...until it wasn't. JT deserved it though.

The Guru wants to tip Brisbane this week, but its too much. Brisbane dont deserve to win, they deserve the spoon. Technically the Bronc's should win with a far better roster, however of the 30 players in each clubs system, Brisbane only have about 7 hearts out of 30 men. Townsville will have to lose for Brisbane to win. Hard to say as the Cows can be pretty awful as well.

The rest of the games.....could be a bit like last weeks fun n games with Souths....little fairy whispers that Souths dropped that game so Bris would get the Spoon and was a very nice up$et!!!

Its a bit sad but this round wont tell us anything, all the top sides are basically running a B team. Form is out the window and the lower ranked teams should be able to get a win in the final round if they so desire...some of them prob dont though. Unfortunately we have a fair roundup of prima donna's in the NRL this season. Its horrific that these blokes can take 5 figure sums per week in salary, yet not give a toss about playing the game for their employers...The Dragons come strongly to mind...these blokes should not be paid for the last 4-5 weeks. Disgraceful and a point to be marked.

Referee standards have sunk to an all time low in the NRL, The Guru sat through the bloody awful Raiders v Warriors game that went 40 mins overtime! 40 MINUTES!!!!. The bloke who reffed that game should never be allowed near a 100x50 field ever again! And to top it off...Crazy Ivan was dead right...referees are managing teams and possession. So many of these 6 agains are nonsense. Its not just annoyance or opinion, its quite obvious to see for anyone. Consistent serious errors that change the result of games. NZ would be in the top 8 if not dudded by the refs!

The Guru feels its The Covid Stormers v Red Roosters GF. Canberra are capable of lifting but they seem to be addicted to dropping the ball, Souths are just not strong enough in the forwards and Reynolds is prone to off games 30% of the time. Newcastle no hope, Cronulla less so, Para dont have the confidence or roster and Penrith have had the easiest season draw in the history of the game wich will haunt them, thyre overconfident and soft, The Guru would not be surprised to see a shellshocked Pennies get done by 30 vs The Stormers or Roosters. Ivan seemed a bit lost or drunk or high on 100% footy. Penrith are a young confident side playing well, but The G thinks Bellyache and Robinson will know how to show who the big boys really are.

Its a good thing The Guru isnt on the ladder this season as the last round is a coin toss.

newbie from perth's picture

Sa-wat-dee krup,

First off, congratulations to Mitch Aubusson on becoming the Roosters’ record holder for most games played (303 and hopefully many more to come). You’re a bloody beauty mate 👊.

With regards to that try Paulo was awarded last week against the Bulldogs, all I have to say is that that touchie needs to go to Spec Savers. Yeah, referee Ashley Klein made a blunder by not sending Paulo’s try upstairs but he was thrown in it when Phil Henderson gave him the nod. How Henderson missed that beggars belief. I read online that up in the box Perenara was heard saying “no, no, no” after Henderson gave Klein the all clear. Apparently Perenara wasn’t able press the microphone button in time. Meh!

OK, let’s do this thing…

Broncos vs. Cowboys 50-50 @ Suncorp
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys

Broncos
The Broncos were 10-0 down after 24 minutes last week against the Eels but Fifita got one back in the 29th minute. Unfortunately their defence faltered and they let the Eels score another 2 tries which saw them head into the sheds 20-6 behind. Four minutes into the second half Herbie Farnworth scores a (really) nice try after a good kick from Darius Boyd. Again, the Broncos’ defence stutters and the Eels score 5 minutes later which is enough to see the Broncos go down 26-12. Credit where credit’s due, the Broncos (with just 2 blokes on the bench in the second half) kept trying and didn’t lie down. Gotta feel for Gamble who only lasted 60 seconds. Ouch! Hate to say it but that “spoon” is looking like heading their way. Just a shame someone has to get it 😥. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (43%-57%)
Tackle Breaks (16-28)
Offloads (6-13)
Dummy Passes (7-33)
Ineffective Tackles (17-8)
Ruck Infringements (7-2)

Cowboys
On the few occasions they actually went into attack in the first half last week, the Cowboys simply couldn't get through the Panthers’ defence and they found themselves down 20-0 at the break. In fact, the Cowboys weren’t able to make a dent in the scoreboard until they got 2 late tries in minutes 61 and 69 and they lost it 32-12. Whatever chance the Cowboys had was over at half-time. Their lack of patience and the pressure applied by the Panthers just didn’t allow the Cowboys to get into the game. Yeah, the Cowboys kept turning up but they were simply outclassed and no doubt they will learn from this. The return of Jason Taumalolo did give the Cowboys a lift and he played just 39 minutes for a commendable 126 metres. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (46%-54%)
Tackle Breaks (24-33)
Offloads (6-13)
Kicking Metres (750-508)
Bombs (0-12)
Penalties Conceded (1-6)
Ruck Infringements (4-1)

Verdict: Toss of a coin for me. History might be made in this game. Cowboys (just).

Titans vs. Knights 40-60 @ Cbus
Ladder Position = Knights
Bookies Favourite = Knights

Titans
The Titans were 6-0 down after just 60 seconds last week against Manly but then took control and ran in 4 tries to go into the sheds 22-12 in front. Another dominant display in the second half saw them bulldoze Manly 42-24. Their attack was on point and as you all know by now, they equalled their highest ever points score in their club’s history. It could’ve been more had Taylor not missed 3 conversion attempts 🤔. If last week’s effort is anything to go by and with the signings they’ve made, next year is looking pretty promising for the Titans. I have to admit I didn’t see this game unfolding as it did. The Titans completely outclassed Manly and were deserved winners. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (48%-52%)
Tackle Breaks (21-33)
Kicks (21-10)
Kicking Metres (561-229)
Kick Defusal (88%-45%)
Ruck Infringements (10-4)

Knights
The Knights scored 5 tries in the first half last week against the Dragons and put the game to bed there and then. After a solid display they went into the break leading 30-6. An even second half points-wise and the Knights stroll in 42-18 winners. They were just too good, too classy. Truth be told, they weren’t made to work that hard for their win. The Dragons defence wasn’t offering much resistance for most of the game. Just note the Knights were ahead 24-0 after just 27 minutes 🤔. A nice little hit out in readiness for finals footy. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (56%-44%)
Completion Rate (78%-68%)
Post Contact Metres (714-543)
Line Breaks (8-4)
Tackles Made (264-405)
Ineffective Tackles (11-19)

Verdict: As good as the Titans have been lately, I’m sticking with the Knights after their effort last week.

Rabbitohs vs. Roosters 35-65 @ ANZ
Ladder Position = Roosters
Bookies Favourite = Roosters

Rabbitohs
The Rabbitohs got ambushed in the first half last week by an obviously more enthusiastic Bulldogs. They definitely looked flustered and they let in 2 tries after Su’a was binned. Things picked up when Su’a returned and they got 2 late tries, one of which shouldn’t have been given. I reckon the Rabbitohs expected to just rock up and get the job done and their lack of respect towards the Bulldogs ultimately proved their undoing. Truth is, they never really looked likely and they (deservedly) lost 26-16 in a boilover. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (49%-51%)
Completion Rate (74%-92%)
Tackle Breaks (32-24)
Kicks (15-26)
Kicking Metres (368-801)
Errors (13-4)

Roosters
Not too bad an effort in the first half from the Roosters last week against the Sharks. They scored 4 tries but let the Sharks in for 2 of their own. A more subdued effort in the second 40 but even with missing players, they were still too good for the Sharks and ran out (semi) comfortable winners 34-18. Amazing if you look at the stats for possession, ineffective tackles and ruck infringements 😱. Their attack was enthusiastic and that try from Joey Manu was a joy to behold. I couldn’t believe the brute strength he displayed in forcing his way over the line (in a walk) to score with 3 Sharks hanging off him 💪. I had him in the top 3 along with Keary (70 metres, 22 tackles and 2 tries) and Aubusson (109 metres, a line break and 2 tries). Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (44%-56%)
Offloads (4-12)
Dummy Passes (6-32)
Kick Defusal (89%-38%)
Ineffective Tackles (18-4)
Ruck Infringements (9-1)

Verdict: Really? Roosters. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔

Bulldogs vs. Panthers 25-75 @ ANZ
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

Bulldogs
The Bulldogs unleashed on the Rabbitohs last week and led 20-10 at the main break after displaying a vastly improved attack and defensive effort. When Su’a was sin-binned, they took their opportunities (scoring 2 tries) and were simply too strong. They stood strong when the Rabbitohs tried to mount a comeback in the second half through some really determined defence. When the Bulldogs scored their try with 15 minutes to go, the game was all but theirs and they held on for a deserved 26-16 win. Great game from Jayden Okunbor. He ran for 236 metres, made 2 line breaks and a try assist. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (51%-49%)
Completion Rate (92%-74%)
Tackle Breaks (24-32)
Kicks (26-15)
Kicking Metres (801-368)
Errors (4-13)

Panthers
The Panthers (Minor Premiers) started very fast last week against the Cowboys and went into the sheds leading 20-0. Their attack was on fire most of the night and Jarome Luai in particular was causing all sorts of problems for the Cowboys. Apart from letting in 2 tries late in the game, the Panthers’ defence was rock solid and they won virtually untroubled 32-12. Another great effort from Kikau who ran for 180 metres, made 2 line breaks, a try assist, scoring a try himself and making 21 tackles. Only downside was getting put on report for a high shot. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (54%-46%)
Tackle Breaks (33-24)
Offloads (13-6)
Kicking Metres (508-750)
Bombs (12-0)
Penalties Conceded (6-1)
Ruck Infringements (1-4)

Verdict: Umm, Panthers 😉.

Sharks vs. Raiders 35-65@ Jubilee
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Raiders

Sharks
The Sharks scored 2 tries in the first half last week against the Roosters but unfortunately the Roosters scored 4 and the Sharks were down 24-12 heading into the sheds. They were still in touch at that point but they leaked another 2 in the second 40 while only getting one themselves and they were beaten 34-18 in the end. The Sharks dominated possession in the first 15-20 minutes of the second half and didn’t do that bad considering the slight edge in class their opponents had. Also conspiring against them was the injury count they experienced during the game. They lost Johnson and Hunt and Josh Dugan copped a knee injury. Even with the injuries, they kept the Roosters to just 2 tries in the second half. They could’ve done better given their stats for possession, ineffective tackles and ruck infringements 😱.But having said that, at the end of the day they were simply outclassed and the focus for them now is this week’s game against the Raiders. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (56%-44%)
Offloads (12-4)
Dummy Passes (32-6)
Kick Defusal (38%-89%)
Ineffective Tackles (4-18)
Ruck Infringements (1-9)

Raiders
The Raiders got a tiny bit rattled by the Warriors early on last week and at one stage the Warriors held a handy 14-6 lead. The pressure got to the Raiders and after being warned about repeated infringements, they seemed to lose it a bit and the referee had enough and binned “Six Again” Wighton for being offside. You’d think being a bloke down for 10 minutes would’ve been a challenge but it just got the Raiders fired up. They scored 2 tries and went into the sheds leading 16-14. Boom! 💥. They followed that up with a pretty decent second 40 (except for some sloppy play late) and added another 10 points while keeping the Warriors scoreless, running out 26-14 winners. Not a great game to watch by all accounts. Ricky thought it was “a disgraceful 80 minutes of football” and he may very well be right 😁. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (45%-55%)
Completion Rate (68%-79%)
Tackle Breaks (29-18)
Ineffective Tackles (18-29)
Errors (12-8)

Verdict: Even with their massive “outs”, the Raiders should get the job done here.

Tigers vs. Eels 35-65@ Bankwest
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Eels

Tigers
The Tigers basically lost last week’s match in the first half. Not many can come back against the Storm from 32-10 down. Yeah, the Tigers got walloped but they did manage to score 22 points against one of the competition’s big guns. Whether that was a result of the Tigers’ attacking effort or the Storm’s poor defence, the fact still remains that on the day, the Tigers were just a tad disappointing. After Doueihi scored in the 55th minute they were just 10 points down but the trademark “comeback” didn’t eventuate and instead the Storm went “bada-boom” and the Tigers got smacked 50-22. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (50%-50%)
Tackle Breaks (16-47)
Dummy Passes (34-10)
Kick Defusal (42%-75%)

Eels
It took a while for the Eels to get their act together last week and at half-time they led the Broncos 20-6. The Eels did score 4 tries in a 17 minute period but they didn’t go on with it in the second half. Yeah, they ran out 26-12 winners but they were clearly not at their best. It could be said that their attack has been slightly unimpressive in recent times and last week was an opportunity to fine tune that but unfortunately their effort (in my opinion only) seemed to lack a bit of polish. It just seemed to me that the Eels were struggling (at times) to really stamp their authority over the Broncos. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (57%-43%)
Tackle Breaks (28-16)
Offloads (13-6)
Dummy Passes (33-7)
Ineffective Tackles (8-17)
Ruck Infringements (2-7)

Verdict: Finding it hard to get a read on last week’s efforts from both these sides. Eels.

Warriors vs. Manly 40-60 @ Central Coast
Ladder Position = Manly
Bookies Favourite = Manly

Warriors
The Warriors weren’t too bad against the Raiders last week truth be told. At one stage in the first half the Warriors held a handy 14-6 lead and then Wighton gets binned and you’d expect the Warriors to take advantage. Unfortunately for them the Raiders scored 2 tries while being a man down and all of a sudden the Warriors were going into the sheds 16-14 down. Look, I reckon the Warriors were pretty good overall (especially their forward pack) but deep down I think (on a subconscious level) all they want to do is get home to family and friends. Totally understandable in my opinion 💖. But hey, they had a crack and kept the pressure on the Raiders. They would’ve felt disappointed they couldn’t score any points in the second half and went down 26-14. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (55%-45%)
Completion Rate (79%-68%)
Tackle Breaks (18-29)
Ineffective Tackles (29-18)
Errors (8-12)

Manly
Manly got off to a perfect start last week against the Titans and scored after just 60 seconds but then had to wait until just before half-time to score their second. They just couldn’t cope with their opposition and they let the Titans score 4 tries in a 20 minute period in the first half and another 4 tries in a 17 minute period in the second half. Just not good enough I’m sorry to say. Manly were simply out-gunned and eventually succumbed to a disappointing 42-24 loss. I really thought Manly would’ve done better at home but they simply weren't good enough. Too many errors from Manly, Turbo’s return didn’t work out as planned and Cherry-Evans’ game was off. At least Sironen kept having a crack. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (52%-48%)
Tackle Breaks (33-21)
Kicks (10-21)
Kicking Metres (229-561)
Kick Defusal (45%-88%)
Ruck Infringements (4-10)

Verdict: Look, the ratings and bookies say Manly and there’s no reason for the Warriors to go hard in this but I’m gonna tip them anyway. Warriors for the win!

Dragons vs. Storm 25-75@ Jubilee
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm

Dragons
Last week the Dragons had a shocker against the Knights. They were down 24-0 after 27 minutes, down 30-6 at half-time and eventually lost 42-18. A nice little period just before half-time and a pretty even (sorta) second half still wasn’t enough to make a fist of it. Too many simple errors and their defence was sorely lacking at times (obviously). At least Zac Lomax and Matt Dufty were having a crack. Bottom line was the Dragons didn’t put up much of a fight and let in too many soft tries. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (44%-56%)
Completion Rate (68%-78%)
Post Contact Metres (543-714)
Line Breaks (4-8)
Tackles Made (405-264)
Ineffective Tackles (19-11)

Storm
The Storm basically wrapped up last week’s game against the Tigers in the first half. It was done and dusted when they went into the sheds leading 32-10. Their attack was simply superb. I can’t say the same about their defence though. No doubt it’s something for them to work on prior to finals time. They did allow the Tigers to get within 10 points with 24 minutes to go but they just turned up the heat after that and scored 3 unanswered tries to put the game to bed, running out 50-22 winners. I would’ve said it was an utterly dominant display had it not been for the worrying aspect of their defensive effort. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession (50%-50%)
Tackle Breaks (47-16)
Dummy Passes (10-34)
Kick Defusal (75%-42%)

Verdict: The Storm are another team with massive “outs” (resting players) so maybe the Dragons are a chance. Might play it safe and tip the Storm, albeit without a huge amount of confidence.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

This might freak a few of you out. It is “heavy” but not heavy metal. I love the heavy-ish guitar and the drum beat. Oh yeah, the video’s not bad either 😁.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypkv0HeUvTc

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week people. Cheers.

Christine's picture

Taka
how do you feel about the changes at bulldogs after letting 8 players go ? some were expected . i think it will be a very different team , only time will tell ...

Baggy_Gee's picture

Braith, not sure what that was, is it music? Newbie, I do like the song, nothing better than a good thrash to gee you up in morning, Thanks.

Braith's picture

@Baggy_Gee I was trying to figure out what the Fox League theme song was for a while, finally found it, lol.

Braith's picture

The beat is pretty catchy, gets stuck in your head XD

Baggy_Gee's picture

Ahhhhh, that's what it was. Not my cup of tea, not even a happy noise, but now you put it in to context I can hear the Fox Theme.

Braith's picture

Yeah, that's the whole point, lol. If you listen to actual tune it'll remind you of the Fox League tune when you're watching a game XD

https://youtu.be/t24qbJ4rJi0

Braith's picture

Honestly though i think Channel 9 should buy all the broadcasting rights for the NRL, not everyone can afford a Foxtel subscription.

Anthony's picture

I agree, all NRL games should be shown on free-to-air TV, or if possible just get the sports package only from Foxtel.

The Butcher's picture

It’s all about priorities
It cost me more back when I smoked.
I have the platinum package and it’s my entertainment.
Sport for me ,movies for the missus
Over 50 channels most ad free.
A beer, Sportsbet and sport
Weekend complete

mark ashford's picture

The Butcher
As much as I'd like more free to air RL on #9 (i don't have fox) without the $$ paid to the NRL by Fox we would be struggling with salary caps etc. Of the 8 games played each week we get 3 for free. My question is how can #7 broadcast so many games on their free channels when they have a similar agreement with Fox for the ARL. I know the Covid-19 monster has changed things but are the NRL fans getting dudded.

mark ashford's picture

Newbie
Enjoyed reading your analysis as usual always good to see those comparison stats.
Your SOTW was a cracker only problem was Marilyn Manson. If he could be photo shopped out I would love it. I know that's like taking Joe Cocker out of "with a little help from my friends" but that's how I feel.

Steel Panther's picture

I have to say I was "shocked" at this weeks artist Newbie but I shouldn't have been as you have shown before how diverse your musical taste is. Never been a fan of the guy myself...

Christine's picture

Newbie that wae around when iknew a goth that is now a former friend i was in my 20's & she was just as crazy as him ...

newbie from perth's picture

@ Mr Ashford & Steely & Christine

I thought this week’s SOTW might’ve shocked (or semi-shocked) a few family members 😉. I understand why he presented himself the way he did back in the day (well I think I do). I reckon it was just some “shock value” to get famous and sell records. But hey, aren’t a lot of artists (and I use that term loosely) these days doing the same thing? Sorta like a “same-same but different” thing but done to suit today’s societal values. But hey, any edge you can give yourself is fair enough. Well, most times anyway. Sometimes you can cross the line and that’s not Newbie-Approved 🤬.

I look at that video and think by today’s standards it’s pretty tame, but back in the day it was a little more controversial perhaps. Yeah, MM is not everyone’s cup of tea but I like the song. As far as MM the person goes, I’m pretty much … “whatever” … and it’s about the only song of his that I like. There might be one or two others but they don’t come to mind just at the minute.

As far as the “goth” thing goes, doesn’t faze me if someone is or isn’t. Usually they grow out of it. The reason I say this is I had a friend and a close family member who were goths back in the day. Both of them were just a little “lost” at a particular point in their lives and were trying to find themselves. They’re both now all “grown up” and functioning very well in normal society 😍. Are you still friends with her Christine? Curious is all.

Anyhoo, I’m off to Google some info on how to power a home using solar panels and a domestic wind turbine. Yep, you heard right 😁. Thinking of one day buying a block out in the country and going off-grid. A few years away though. Cheers peeps … 🐔 🐔 🐔

Guru Craig's picture

Brisbane v NQ

Bronco's - They don't deserve much in 2020 but on paper their roster is the better one in this game and Brisbane have the home advantage. It's Darius's last game and the biggest factor...win to potentially miss the spoon. This is Brisbane's last chance, a way to end this nightmare season with something. Before kick-off the playing group should know who the coach will be next year - 2021 Walters winners for the top 6. Bronco's are specials.

Titans v Newcastle

Titans - The Coast have a final chance to show the world they are on the up and up. The playing group at the Titans have really lifted this year and stepped up, this will be The Gold Coasts GF, ambush awaits The Knights.
Very little was said in the media, but The Titans owners have said they would fold the club if the did not improve greatly in 2020 and 2021. The players and staff know they carry the weight and burden of that statement and The Guru feels that is the driving motivation behind this group. Success or extinction. Titans to play their best game of the year.

Roosters v Souths

Roosters - This should be the game of the round and probably the only game which will show true finals form. The media can say what they will but last week Souths gave the Dogs a 20pt start before they started to play. The Guru doesn't think souths are gone, but playing tricks like that can upset a teams balance...dropping a game has been in the skillset of the master coach if the reasons warranted it on several occasions, however not this week. Souths will be much better, but on form the Chookies should be a bit stronger and less error prone.

Bulldogs v Panthers

Doggies - Brisbane beats the Cows, Penrith want to refresh the win streak? Its madness to tip the Dogs but The Guru will throw in a roughie. The Dogs have closed from $9 H2H to $5 H2H...There has been tomfoolery afoot in the last few rounds and this weeks final round has the possibility for more. It is not a confident tip, but would not surprise.

Sharks v Canberra B

Sharks - Canberra it would seem have forfeited this game, its now up to the Sharks to be good enough to get the win. Ricky was right about last week, Can v NZ was rubbish. 40 min overtime, the kick off was 2.05pm and was still being played at 4.10pm! Ricky would be concerned though, because his Raiders have fallen off the last six weeks. Poor ball control and discipline, they will need to improve greatly to impact the finals. Sharks free win if they want it.

Tigers v Para

Tigers - West Tigers have the motivation and this game, should, repeat that, should, be their best performance of season 2020. Benji's last game, Lawrence's last game...The Tigers players are dirty about what the club has done to Benji, the club is a joke but the boys will lift more than enough to cover the fading Eels. Para have come out in defence of Moses, 'Leave our boy alone' is the message. Para have many areas that let them down and there is not enough motivation or desire to go to war with the Tigers. Odds are reversed, Tigers are red hot favourites.

Warriors v Manly

NZ - Warriors to end the season with a W, through grit and effort. The Aus Jnr team will struggle without RTS but they should have more drive than Manly. There are more problems at Manly than just injuries, the club is not united. The Guru feels if NZ want this game its there's for the taking, Manly wont give 80 min of effort.

STG v Melbourne

The Sunshine Stormers - As the Thinker says, Mel are running out whoever turned up at Sunshine Plaza, but to be honest those roughnecks will probably be too good for whatever rubbish STG run out. St George have fallen into that place like Brisbane, coach got sacked so nothing they do can be attributed to them. Lazy overpaid arrogance, there is less heart in this Dragons team than in a vegan smorgasbord. The Storm reserve grade team will be playing for opportunity, catching the eye of the Great man in the box and pushing for 2021 chances.

mark ashford's picture

Thinker
Back in round 19 there is an extremely unsavoury comment from some braindead fool masquerading as our Rocket. When you get a minute you may like to remove it.

The Butcher's picture

Mark
I just saw those comments what a hide to come here and mock ,ridicule & judge Rocket and yourself .... surely that’s my job.

mark ashford's picture

Ha Ha Butcher
You are quite right but I'm sure your selection of vocabulary would be well above this idiot.

Christine's picture

Newbie i haven't seen her for a long time when she started working for the austalian tax office still goth at the time & i doubt she has ever changed but each to there own it would be a boring world if we were all alike newbie ,enjoy the games this week , not long too go now until it all finishes again for another season ...

Steel Panther's picture

I have to say I've enjoyed your return Guru. Your no bs assessment of some teams has been a breath of fresh air. You call sh1t exactly that and call a spade a spade. Refreshing indeed. Would be good if we see you back on the tipping ladder next season.

BigPeteBx's picture

Evening Butch - one thing missing from your weekend complete.
How could you rule it out - BBQ.

Cheers mate and keep well
Big Pete.

a's picture

Yeah I’m also glad to have guru back

a's picture

Hi thinker there’s people pretending to be rocket Ryan and mark Ashford and using different names to bully the broncos supporters last round I think that you need to ban there IP addresses

Andrew O'Brien's picture

Why doesn't Rockhampton/Central Queensland have a team????

Dragons-fanboy's picture

Hey everyone, I’m going for a few roughies this week! Decided to since it’s the final round and I feel like this will be my only opportunity now to get back into contention in the comp. I’ve decided to be a risk-taker this week. So my tips for this week are:

Cowboys by 6 – Cowboys to just get the win for Gavin Cooper in his final game. Darius Boyd will be playing his final game for the Broncos but I think the Cowboys would want it more for Gavin. This will be a good game I think between two huge rivals who’ve had tough seasons. Who would’ve thought a few seasons ago that the two teams who played each other in the 2015 grand final will now be versing each other in the final round with both being in the bottom 3. Unbelievable! Broncos would want to get off the wooden spoon but they’ve been losing pretty much all year even when have been tough and competitive. This will be a tough affair but the Cowboys will just get it done here, they will have the more desire.

Titans by 2 – My first roughie for the round is the Titans getting the win over the Knights. Titans have been amazing in the last 4 weeks and have won 4 in a row! Impressive stuff indeed from the Titans. They’ll be looking for a club record 5 straight. I reckon they’ll do it here to finish at 9th place. Knights were brilliant last week against the Dragons last week but to be fair, my Dragons didn’t offer much on the table last week whereas, the Titans most definitely will this week. The Knights are playing away from home as well where they’ve struggled as of late. I know they were all against the top teams but I just feel that the Titans can sneak another upset here over the Knights, Knights will still finish 6th though because Roosters should beat the Bunnies so it won’t effect the Knights’ desire of a home final. Titans in a thriller. Justin Holbrook deserves it after all for the great job he has done as Titans coach thus far. Fullback battle looks a treat and that halfback battle between the two captains is an underrated one. Forwards battle should be interesting too.

Roosters by 12 – Roosters should beat the Bunnies here. The Rabbitohs were disappointing last week against the Bulldogs and really underestimated them big time. Hence why they got beat, unless Wayne wanted the Bulldogs to win on purpose just so the Broncos can be down the bottom of the table lol! All jokes aside, the Rabbitohs were really poor and desperately need to step up big time coming up against the defending premiers who are going for a threepeat. That in itself will be quite a feat considering it’s much harder for a team to get so many premierships in a row nowadays. I wouldn’t go past the Roosters actually achieving the feat. This should be a cracking game though as it always is between these two. I remember the Rabbits upsetted the high-flying Chooks in the final round last season, can they do a repeat? I don’t think so, Roosters have been playing some amazing footy and although a few of their players have been rested, they do have some key inclusions including Friend, Taukieaho and Tedesco. The Roosters still have a cracker of a side on paper and should be too good for the Bunnies here. The Rabbitohs may get the win if they step up big time but they sure have to because I can sense that the Roosters will want to be on their game once again. Chooks for me to prevent a home final for the Rabbitohs in the battle between the only two foundation clubs remaining. Halves battle is really key in this one! Walker and Reynolds need to step it up a notch coming up against the halves pairing of Keary who has been in a rich vain of form and Kyle Flanagan who is the leading point scorer this season.

Panthers by 18 – Panthers should win this one comfortably. The Bulldogs finally got that win that they needed to get off the bottom of the table. Now all they need is the Broncos to lose so they don’t finish wooden spoon, otherwise they would have to rely on winning this game which will be really difficult for the Dogs unless the Panthers really slack off. The Panthers have the minor premiership all set but they would still love to finish on a high coming into the finals and get that 15 straight. They can’t slack off here on the Dogs like the Bunnies did but I highly doubt it that they will, they will treat the Bulldogs seriously and will want to do a job on them just like they have to the other bottom 8 teams. The Bulldogs will most likely fight especially considering it’s their final game of the season and their final home game for that matter and they have been great in their final games of seasons in the past few years, but the Panthers will be too strong and I’m going the Panthers to win comfortably, they just have too much talent even without the likes of Edwards and Kikau who’ve been rested for this one.

Raiders by 4 – Raiders have had a whole host of changes in this one. Ricky Stuart decided to rest the majority of his lineup and bring in a whole host of inexperience. At least those guys will get some experience and some much-needed game time and confidence for the seasons ahead. The Sharks on the other hand, will be surely missing Johnson for sure. That is a huge blow for the Sharks as he has been their best all season; most try assists out of every player says it all. They will lack the creativity that they have possessed this season coming mainly from Johnson. They do have the game management still in Townsend but will that do enough? Graham can be creative but he hasn’t played much Five-Eighth lately and how he will go will be intriguing. It’ll be big shoes to fill for the captain but I’m sure he would want to do a great job in the position. I still think that the Raiders will beat the Sharks even without the majority of their players. If they had their full squad, the Raiders smash the Sharks but maybe they want to leave that for Week 1 of the finals hahaha. Raiders here in a tight one. This is a critical game for the Sharks but I still think whether they win or lose here, they will kiss their season goodbye in week 1 of the finals for sure. The Sharks forwards need to step up here as well.

Eels by 10 – Eels will just be too good here for the Tigers. This will be an exciting game. With plenty to play for. Tigers would want to sed Lawrence and Benji out winners considering all that they have done for the club. The Eels on the other hand, will dearly love a top 4 finish. Even if that means they will have to face the in form Panthers in week 1 of finals. It will at least give them a second chance and a second chance they would love considering their formline assuming they will lose to the Panthers in the Qualifiers. The Eels’ attack has been disappointing but at least they showed glimpses against the Broncos. I know it was only the Broncos but still they did show some signs of the type of attack they possessed at the start of the season. The Tigers have some attacking prowess in their game so the Eels have to make sure they muscle up in defence otherwise the Tigers may upset here. I was tempted to pick the Tigers but looking at those lineups and considering the top 4 is on the line, the Eels will want it and plus they can take some confidence out of their win last week. Tigers desperately need to aim up in defence themselves if they are going to win particularly after having 50 put on them by the Storm. Surely the Eels wouldn’t do the same but still. Plus, the venue may be a deciding factor too. History says that the Eels perform better at Bankwest than the Tigers, they have beat them twice there already last season and I am picking them to make that three in a row at Bankwest for the Eels to the Tigers. This is a Tigers’ home game is to note and they have taken it to Bankwest… maybe should’ve taken it to Leichhardt or Campbelltown. Oh well!

Warriors by 8 – My other upset of the round sees the Warriors beating Manly once again. The Warriors have already beat Manly once this season. This time around, both teams are out of contention for finals with nothing to play for. Form wise, I would say the Warriors are in the better form at the moment. Manly were shocking last week against the Titans but at least they were able to finish well and put some respectability to that scoreline because they were really disappointing against the Titans. Now Tommy Turbo is out again but should be right for origin but considering the Manly side were buoyed by the return of Tom Trbojevic, they weren’t able to perform well for him and unfortunately he injured himself again which was a shame for Manly. Warriors on the other hand, full credit to them once again, they were in it against the Raiders and competed even without their captain nce he was down injured and the desire to make finals and with their players dearly missing home and family. Week in, week out they just keep competing and that quality in itself is why I’ve picked the Warriors here, you can easily say the Warriors have showed more fight than Manly have and they have many fair reasons to not and that heart that the Warriors have will get them over the line here in their final home game of the season. RTS should be proud of his boys whilst sitting on the sideline watching his team play because of the amazing season they’ve had. I’m sure he will when the Warriors get it done. They have played well at their second home in Central Coast as well so they do have that to bring into this game too. Everyone’s second favourite team to finish off the season on a high in which they well and truly deserve to. I really hope that they do. C’mon Warriors!

And finally… the mighty Dragons by 10 – Well we haven’t been so mighty in recent weeks but I mean come on! We face a Storm side who only have two of their players who were in the side last week. Like the amount of mass changes the Storm have made is quite remarkable but it’s very smart on Craig’s end. Loading them up for finals time. Genius move indeed. It means they potentially drop this game here to the Dragons but they will still finish 2nd even with a loss. The boys would want to finish off the season on a high. We’ve been really disappointing in the last few weeks getting completely outplayed in our last two games. We need to fire up in our final game of the season for out fans. It’s members appreciation day on Sunday after all. Lomax and Dufty are among a few players who’ve actually competed week in, week out along with McInnes and also Cosy Ramsey in his two games but they rest, were lacking any sort of heart in the game against the Knights. Great decision to finally bring in some more youngblood in this one. Cool thing is that our backline is full of Dragons’ juniors who’ve come through the system. It’ll be interesting to see how we’ll fair now that our lineup mainly consists of Dragons’ juniors who’ve come through the system. We do have a good system and many of these players that will be making their debuts in Sullivan and Blacker, there have been good stuff said about them. Let’s see how we’ll go huh? We are the favourites in this one actually crazy huh? So it won’t be an upset but maybe you could say an upset figuratively here. C’mon the mighty Dragons! Please get it done in our final home game at Jubilee for the year. Please for some heart and fight and fire! We usually do tend to fire in our final regular season games and win, let’s do it again.

Awesome! Good luck with everyone’s teams for this week and with everyone’s tips for this week. Sorry I’m late with my comment again. I have in fact been bust lately in my life with work and other things that I have in my life like a girlfriend you know living life! I can’t use that as an excuse though but anyways. Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Christine's picture

Plraze put my tips in for taking the ssme as the thinker this week & may the league gods be good to us all ...

Christine's picture

That said please put my tips in for taking the same as the thinker this week , may the league gods be good to us all ...

mark ashford's picture

Dragons Fan-boy
Just read through your predictions for this weeks games, most I agree with some I'm not sure. Then I got to your last paragraph and saw a reference to a "girlfriend". Is this a new addition to your life? if so I wish you well. Just hope she is a Dragons fan mate or you may be in trouble.

The Butcher's picture

DFB
Good to see there’s a DFG.
Before you know it there will be a few DFKs running around.

mark ashford's picture

The Butcher
Well said mate, well said. I'm sure we all wish him well.

a's picture

Well I do glad that we won but so sad to see the broncos get the wooden spoon

Mary S's picture

Agree with you 'a'.

Thrilled to see the Cowboys win tonight, and Gavin Cooper being able to celebrate with a win in his last game, but also sad to see Broncos get the wooden spoon and for Darius Boyd to end his long football career on a loss.
Cheers,
Mary

Guru Craig's picture

Was probably the Bronco's best game post Covid, but it just wasn't
good enough. Good win for NQ, Guru thought Darius had his best game in years, pity he couldn't have been like that the last two seasons.

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