Melbourne Storm vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Thursday night – AAMI Park

It's the very first game of the 2021 NRL season, and as a tipster it's always nice to get the first game of the year right. There are genuinely compelling reasons to pick the home side in this first outing:

• The Storm almost never lose in round one...if ever
• The Rabbitohs almost never win in Melbourne...if ever
• The Storm haven't played a game in Melbourne for a very long time, and they'll be keen to put on a show for how ever many Melburnians are allowed to front up to AAMI Park.

But...I'm an idiot. I usually take trial form with a large grain of salt but the Rabbitohs were red hot in the Charity Shield match (take note that the Storm were pretty red hot in the trials too). The Bunnies have also been able to name a near full-strength line-up for their first outing, and their back-line, with the recruitment of Mansour and Marshall off the bench, looks dynamite. Meanwhile the Storm are set to begin their life without Cameron Smith, and he's been their captain and leader, on and off the field, for well over a decade. This isn't the first time the Storm have had to cope with the retirement or departure of a big name player, but Smith and his steadying influence has been there to help them move on. Now Smith has moved on, and it's almost impossible to know how much of a hole that leaves behind. I think it's a big hole, and with Harry Grant injured it's a very big hole. I'm not consigning the Storm to the also-rans in 2021...not even close. Their spine should be the envy of the competition, and their forward pack is almost entirely international standard. They can still win the premiership this season and they can still win this game, but I'll take them on here.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 1

Result – Storm 26 defeated Rabbitohs 18

 

Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday night – McDonald Jones Stadium

I could be looking like quite the fool by Friday night. The Knights are a very warm favourite to win this at home, but their line-up for this game looks positively awful. They've cobbled together a back-line without Ponga (knee), Green (knee), Lee (foot) and Hunt (hamstring). Their replacements (in order) are Hoy, Mann, To'a and Shibasaki - handy footballers each and every one of them, but replacements nonetheless. The Bulldogs had a few racing the clock to be available in round one, but have named Napa, Averillo, Faitala-Mariner and Cotric as fit and ready to roll. Handy inclusions there. Cotric, Allan and Flanagan all slot straight into the starting back-line for the Dogs and I expect they'll improve the Dogs in attack, which has been an apparent weakness for a few seasons now. Another upset on the cards. 

Verdict – Bulldogs by 2

Result – Knights 32 defeated Bulldogs 16

Brisbane Broncos vs Parramatta Eels – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

The Broncos are on their longest consecutive losing streak ever, and it's hard to see them breaking that run of outs on Friday night. Their strength last year (if you could call it that) was their forwards, but Fifita and Ofahengaue have moved on and Haas is cooling his heels until round four after showing more ticker in a Kingscliff Hotel than he offered in game 3 of the Origin series last year. Their one shining light in the backs last season was Kotoni Staggs but he's unavailable for quite some time. The very talented but very young Tesi Nui has been switched across the park to fill in. Croft has won what I will call a reprieve in the halves but he has to lift. They all have to lift. The Eels on the other hand are rolling into town with a very strong seventeen. They gave the Broncos a footballing lesson early in the season last year, and I fear we will see a repeat of that. The new Broncos coach has his hands full, but at least you know he will give it his all.

Verdict – Eels by 10

Result – Eels 24 defeated Broncos 16

New Zealand Warriors vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday afternoon – Central Coast Stadium

A proper game of football here. The Warriors, as they almost always do, have a team that can beat anyone on their day, bolstered by some key recruits in the forwards (Fonua-Blake and Murdoch-Masila) while the Titans were one of the form teams of the NRL late last season, winning five games in a row and just falling short of a top eight berth. Joining the Titans this season are Fifita, Fa'asuamaleaui and former Warrior Patrick Herbert. Expectations are high on the Gold Coast, but with good reason. This is a genuine test of their prospects first up, but the Warriors have some issues finding a dummy half. Wayde Egan has been named but there are doubts around his fitness, and it's not easy to hide an injury in that position.

Verdict – Titans by 4

Result – Warriors 19 defeated Titans 6

Sydney Roosters vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday afternoon – Sydney Cricket Ground

Sometimes smart people make dumb choices, and Tommy Turbo is proof of same after accepting a challenge from a random on the Manly Corso to a sprint race after a night out. His hamstring, as it's prone to do, wasn't happy with the decision either and let him down accordingly. He'll be out for as long as it takes, and I think his inclusion or exclusion from the Sea Eagles has more impact than any other individual in any other team. Manly are that much more manageable when he's not there. As such, much of the expectation falls on the old halves duo together again - Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran. They're a great couple, but it's been a while and, like a said, containing those two will be easier without the Turbo lurking behind them. The Roosters don't seem quite as onimous as they have in previous seasons, but they're still at or near the benchmark when it comes to the NRL. Many of us are waiting for Sam Walker to get a chance with the Chooks. Not this weekend, but when he does he's worth watching. Too good the tricolours.

Verdict – Roosters by 10

Result – Roosters 46 defeated Sea Eagles 4

Penrith Panthers vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – Panthers Stadium

I've a big wrap on Todd Payten as a coach. If the Cowboys stick with him I'm sure they can build a squad that can threaten for a premiership in the years ahead...but not his year. Penrith were dominant for most of last year (except perhaps for one half of the grand final). Their kids should be even better this year. Contenders.

Verdict – Panthers by 14

Result – Panthers 24 defeated Cowboys 0 

Canberra Raiders vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – GIO Stadium

The Tigers have added Tamou, Ofahengaue and James Roberts to their roster, but I just cannot warm to their side. I've struggled to warm to their side for years to be honest. There's nothing wrong with them, they just don't get me enthused, and they don't give me any indication that they can do any better than ninth. The Raiders are better than ninth. Much better.

Verdict – Raiders by 8

Result – Raiders 30 defeated Tigers 12

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks – Sunday night – Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

The last time the Sharks won a game in round one was 2013, but they're favourites here and probably should be. Anthony Griffin is back with a new club and I think he's a proper coach. I'm hearing the Dragons are still getting around some of the structural changes he has made to how they play the game, but changes had to be made. I'm willing to tip them in the local derby - a number of Sharks forwards are nursing injuries and the Dragons have plenty of players (Bird, McCullough, Hunt, Merrin, ALvaro) with points to prove.

Verdict – Dragons by 4

Result – Sharks 32 defeated Dragons 18

Wally Lewis - round one selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

• Storm vs RABBITOHS
• KNIGHTS vs Bulldogs
• Broncos vs EELS
• Warriors vs TITANS
• ROOSTERS vs Sea Eagles
• PANTHERS vs Cowboys
• RAIDERS vs Tigers
• Dragons vs SHARKS