Manly Sea Eagles vs Canberra Raiders – Thursday night – 4 Pines Park
It would be wrong to say the Raiders haven't beaten anybody during the last three months. It would be right to say they haven't beaten anyone of note. They've won twice during that period, defeating the Bulldogs by 2 points during Magic Round and a pretty thorough win over a very under-strength Broncos in Canberra. You don't need me to tell you how those two sides are going this season. The timing of their clash with the Sea Eagles is fortuitous, with Tommy Turbo and Daly Hyphen-Evans on Origin duties, but I doubt their absence is enough to change the outcome here. The Sea Eagles have scored an eye-watering 172 points in their last three games, and two of those games were away from home. While they won't have a crowd at Brookvale they'll appreciate the familiar surroundings, and Des Hasler will be sure to turn off the hot water supply to the Raiders dressing sheds.
Verdict – Sea Eagles by 16
Result – Raiders 30 defeated Sea Eagles 16
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs North Queensland Cowboys – Friday night – Stadium Australia
A game so racked by Origin representation both sides have named fullbacks I know absolutely nothing about. Eight players in total are unavailable (five for the Bunnies, three for the Cowboys), so we all get to see some new faces on Friday night. That said, the Bunnies playmaking spine of Marshall, Walker and Reynolds is first class. You would expect those three will create plenty of opportunities, and you would expect Reynolds to covert almost every try. The Cowboys have played top eight sides on six occasions this year and lost them all. Their only win away from Townsville this season was a 4 point win over the Tigers. I'm not prepared to say they can't win this game, but I can find no compelling reasons to pick them either.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 10
Result – Rabbitohs 46 defeated Cowboys 18
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – Bankwest Stadium
Two teams that managed to score exactly 0 points last weekend - that couldn't happen very often. They also conceded 112 points, and while both teams faced high class opponents, one has to accept that neither side are in form. The Bulldogs welcome back four of the five bubble breachers, while the Chooks lose Tedesco and Crichton to Origin duty but welcome back Victor Radley. Sam Walker is getting the cheese beaten out of him of late, and you'd assume the Bulldogs will be keen to offer more of the same. At some point the kid will need to get packed up in cotton wool for the season, but you have to admire his Chumbawumba/Tubthumping attitude. The Bulldogs will have their supporters in this, but I won't be one of them.
Verdict – Roosters by 8
Result – Roosters 22 defeated Bulldogs 16
Cronulla Sharks vs New Zealand Warriors – Sunday afternoon – Bankwest Stadium
The Sharks and Warriors were expected (by most) to win last weekend, but didn't. The Warriors looked the winners everywhere but where and when it mattered. The Sharks never looked likely against a team they should be beating if they think they are a top eight side (they aren't...but it's nice that they think they are). I'm pretty keen on the Warriors here in a bit of an upset. The absence of Tohu Harris worries me a little, but Matt Lodge will be keen to prove his worth on debut and the Warriors bench is a quartet of steamrollers on legs. With Nikorima and Walsh returning I can see those two capitalising on whatever opportunities that Warriors pack can provide. In a pretty lean round of football this could be the best (and closest) game of the weekend.
Verdict – Warriors by 4
Result – Sharks 20 defeated Warriors 12
Wally Lewis - round seventeen selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning
- SEA EAGLES vs Raiders
- RABBITOHS vs Cowboys
- Bulldogs vs ROOSTERS
- SHARKS vs Warriors
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round sixteen and the Dragons after party.
Plenty of 5s and 6s from our tipsters, but congrats to our top scorers (MGM, Scotty H, Lillychino and NuL1F3) with 7 from 8. Outstanding stuff.
If anyone notices anything that needs attention with the scores just let me know.
I will have my previews and selections published on Wednesday.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Mary S on
Hi Dragons-fanboy and other Dragons fans,
The news from the Dragons camp re the sacking of Paul Vaughan, plus substantial fines for the breaches of COVID protocols, must have you reeling after their win last weekend, and the possibility of turning the team's fortunes in a positive direction.
Unfortunately the resulting story is not good-
https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/07/05/dragons-hit-with-$305000-in-fines-vaughan-banned-eight-weeks/
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Tony on
Hi Thinker , love your comments and the hard research you do each week. I am surprised you have not been able to come up with some upsets. I think you got 2 this week.Many thanks.Tony
Submitted by newbie from perth on
OK, first up, apologies to Fanboy, JK and Michael (and any other Dragons fans out there) but this is not an attack on your beloved Dragons. Please believe me when I say that the following views would be exactly the same even if it came from the Roosters say. Respect to you all 💪.
[Rant Starts]
So, Paul Vaughan has a party (after he and the rest of the team were told not to do anything silly and reckless) and 12 of his teammates decide to follow suit and ignore club directives, especially given the COVID* situation over in Sydney.
Seriously, what was going through their heads? 😱. I was telling workmates about the fines and suspensions today and one of them said that he (Vaughan) should be sacked and lo and behold I read tonight that he has indeed been sacked. There was mention of Paul being “shocked” that he was sacked but you know what? He’s only got himself to blame.
Look, I’m no fan of this COVID* thing and I have concerns that it’s possibly (not definitely, just possibly) been blown out of proportion just a tiny bit (I accept some may disagree) but at the end of the day you can’t have players behaving so irresponsibly and without any regard for the game they owe so much to. Things like this can totally shut the game down for a season and where would we be then?
Paul (and the other guys involved), if you’re reading this then just let me say you made one of the biggest boo-boos you could ever make. Yes Paul, redemption is possible but clubs will be wary of signing you up mate. Take ownership of your mistake, learn something, be genuinely sorry for what you did (your posting on Instagram was a good start) and move on.
If this debacle doesn’t get it through people’s heads then what hope is there 😢.
[Rant Ends]
Cheers. Catch y’all tomorrow night. 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
It is sad, but the kicker for me is he had already been done twice before. The Jack part is terrible, the club that has stood by you, rightly or wrongly, while a jury of your peers decided your fate, and this is how you repay them? I'm worried that if 2 clubs are doing it, then all 16 are doing it to lesser and greater extents how much of this can the country take before we end up either like the AFL and all based out of one city, or suspended completely?
Submitted by Dragons-fanboy on
Hi Mary,
Yes very disappointed indeed. In my opinion tho, the media has made this out bigger than it should be. The players will be copping their punishments though and hopefully it gives them time to think about what they did wrong, breaking the rules. But they most certainly put no one in danger, they share the same sheds and tackle and high five and hug each other after every try. Yes they broke the rules but they didn't put anyone else at risk by having that party of spreading covid. That'll do me for anyone who believes that. Anyways i am disappointed yes but I believe it's made out to be such a big deal. Punishments seem pretty fair tho considering those Dogs players missed a game too. Paul Vaughan's is a massive one tho and plus the sacking too.
Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!
Submitted by Dragons-fanboy on
But I do think it's a valid point both Newbie and Baggy have made. It isn't a good look for the game having it's own players breaking rules and their protocols they are supposed to be following. Hope no other club follows suit. NRL may need to take note of AFL then if it gets to that stage as Baggy said.
Cheers!!!!!!!!
Submitted by Dragons-fanboy on
Hey everyone, my tips for this week are:
Sea Eagles by 16
Rabbitohs by 12
Roosters by 14
Warriors by 2
Awesome! Good luck with everyone's team for this week who are playing this weekend and with everyone's tips for this week. Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Submitted by Scotty H on
My Rd 17 tips
Raiders for a masive upset
Rabbits
Roosters
Warriors
Have tipped NSW as a Blue supporter!
But put a sneaky $5 on QLD as I still have scares from the "8 in a row" period.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
"Dia duit gach duine" i dteanga ní mo theanga féin,
Thanks for your comments Dragons-fanboy. It was very noble of you and glad you didn’t take offense my friend. You are a true footy fan and a gentleman 💪. Just in case anyone’s interested, the points tally from last weekend was:
Winning teams’ points = 290
Losing teams’ points = 76
Makes you think exactly where the game is heading. Or was it pure happenstance (one of those things)? Hmm … Let’s do this thang…
Manly vs. Raiders 75-25 @ Brookvale
Ladder Position = Manly
Bookies Favourite = Manly
Manly
What a mismatch it was last week with Manly up against the Bulldogs. With the bottom side missing players for COVID breaches, Manly piled on 36 points in the first half and followed up with another 30 in the second to absolutely demolish the Bulldogs 66-0. As one of the commentators mentioned it was like watching men against boys. The Sea Eagles did start slowly in the second half though. I mean it took them a whole 8 minutes to start scoring again. And when they did, they scored 5 tries in a 25 minute period. It was a truly exceptional effort from Manly last week. Keep in mind though they were playing against what was basically a reserve grade side. And a reserve grade side from the team on the bottom of the ladder to boot. Not taking anything away from a superb Manly win, just sayin’. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 56%
Completion Rate - 77% (37/48)
Line Breaks - 14
Tackle Breaks - 43
Missed Tackles - 13
Ineffective Tackles - 7
Errors - 12
Penalties Conceded - 9
Raiders
The Raiders started fairly well last week against the Titans but fell away once the Titans applied the pressure. When David Fifita was sin binned in the 29th minute the Raiders looked a chance as they were only down 6-0. Somehow they allowed the Titans to score 3 tries while Fifita was off. The game was basically gone when the Raiders headed into the sheds 22-0 down. They managed a try in the 56th minute (not that it mattered) but finally they were humbled to the tune of 44-6. The Raiders didn’t (couldn’t) put the Titans under any real pressure and their attack was basically non-existent. It seemed there was no commitment or effort. The only one that had a crack was Josh Papali’i. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 43%
Completion Rate - 77% (30/39)
Line Breaks - 2
Tackle Breaks - 29
Missed Tackles - 69
Ineffective Tackles - 8
Errors - 11
Penalties Conceded - 6
Verdict: From what they showed last week, the Raiders are no chance here. Manly for me.
Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys 75-25 @ Stadium Australia
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs
Rabbitohs
The Rabbitohs had an excellent first half against the Tigers last week and went into the sheds leading 26-0. The Rabbitohs didn’t really look like they were gonna lose that but one small worry was that they “appeared” to take their foot off the gas in the second half. They just seemed to lack intensity. The Tigers outscored them in the second half (22-12) but the damage had been done in the first and the Bunnies won comfortably 38-22 in the end. It could’ve (and should’ve) been more, especially given that “butchered” try that Reynolds gave away (foot on the dead ball line). You’d expect more from a player of his class 😱. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession 55%
Completion Rate - 82% (37/45)
Line Breaks - 11
Tackle Breaks - 43
Missed Tackles - 24
Ineffective Tackles - 23
Errors - 9
Penalties Conceded - 3
Cowboys
Not quite sure where the Cowboys were last week against the Knights. Down 22-0 at half-time and 38-0 at full-time. I thought they would’ve been a chance but it was a somewhat disappointing effort for mine. Their defence was not up to standard and they looked somewhat disinterested. There was a (very) slight improvement in the second half but overall their attack was fairly predictable. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 47%
Completion Rate - 78% (32/41)
Line Breaks - 2
Tackle Breaks - 28
Forced Drop Outs - 3
Missed Tackles - 25
Ineffective Tackles - 6
Errors - 10
Penalties Conceded - 6
Verdict: I think the Cowboys will put in a better effort this week (I’m hoping) but the Rabbitohs should get this done without too much fuss.
Bulldogs vs. Roosters 20-80 @ Bankwest
Ladder Position = Roosters
Bookies Favourite = Roosters
Bulldogs
With hindsight, the Bulldogs were on a hiding to nothing last week against Manly. They had 7 players missing from the previous week due to COVID breaches and injuries and it was always gonna end up ugly for them. A lack of possession and a lack of experience finally told and they were annihilated 66-0. Unfortunately for them it was a very harsh lesson (they will learn from that) but something they would rather have not endured. A truly “dog day afternoon” to say the least. But hey, every time you lose you get closer to a win 😉. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 44%
Completion Rate - 71% (24/34)
Line Breaks - 0
Tackle Breaks - 13
Missed Tackles - 43
Ineffective Tackles - 11
Errors - 12
Penalties Conceded - 7
Roosters
To say I was gutted last week would be a huge understatement. Look, when the Storm go out to a 24-0 lead after 32 minutes it’s near on impossible for any side to get up over them. They are just too good. Things were looking promising for the Roosters early in proceedings and although they were only 8-0 down at the time, those 2 bombed chances they had from scrums close to their line finally had me worried they were not in the hunt. The Storm then got into gear and were ruthless. They were too smart, too strong and too classy for my BBB. One of the worrying signs for me was the Roosters’ total lack of defensive attitude. Their defensive effort was (very) poor to be honest. Some of the tries they let through were as soft as butter. And then you had Daniel Suluka-Fifita getting sin-binned for a late whack on Munster. Ever since I’ve seen him in the first team I’ve always thought Daniel was a bit of a “loose cannon” and he proved me right. Mind you, I’m not a great fan of Munster anyway 😁. From what I saw, the Roosters were still trying but their defence as I said was abysmal. Pretty sure they’ll get some extra drills on that from Robbo. I can’t use the injury toll as an excuse. Teams have to do their best with what they have and clearly the Roosters’ best wasn’t good enough last week. Their 46-0 drubbing was proof of that 😢. They lose Teddy and Angus (SO3) but get Radley and Nat Butcher back. Really keen to see how Billy Smith goes in his return. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 49%
Completion Rate - 66% (25/38)
Line Breaks - 1
Tackle Breaks - 29
Missed Tackles - 38
Ineffective Tackles - 12
Errors - 12
Penalties Conceded - 6
Verdict: Commonsense says the Roosters. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔
Sharks vs. Warriors 60-40 @ Kogarah
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks
Sharks
The Sharks had a pretty even tussle with the Broncos in the first half last week. So much so they were locked up 12-12 when they went into the break. The Sharks contested well enough in the second half until the Broncos ran in 2 tries in 3 minutes and all but destroyed any chance the Sharks may have had. The Sharks weren’t that bad really and they did manage to fight back late but in the end the Broncos played that little bit better and wanted it more. I think the Sharks might’ve taken the Broncos for granted (underestimated them) and maybe that’s why they lost it 26-18. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 52%
Completion Rate - 79% (33/42)
Tackle Breaks - 37
Forced Drop Outs - 6
Missed Tackles - 27
Ineffective Tackles - 22
Errors - 9
Penalties Conceded - 3
Warriors
I think the Warriors let last week’s game slip. They were doing pretty well in the first half against the Dragons and were starting to dominate towards the end of the first half. They went into the break leading 12-6 and carried the momentum into the second half. With 10 minutes to go they scored and were leading 18-6 and looked like they were gonna get the job done. Then somehow they allowed (?) the Dragons back into it and next thing you know the Dragons levelled up with an 80th minute try. Corey Norman had missed all 4 conversions and his first 2 attempts at a field goal in extra time but then nailed his 3rd field goal attempt and the Warriors went down 19-18 in a heartbreaking thriller. Shining light for the Warriors was the effort from Rockin’ Roger. He ran 25 times for 267 metres (including 87 post-contact metres), had 10 tackle breaks and a line break. His kick returns were outstanding. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 46%
Completion Rate - 81% (34/42)
Tackle Breaks - 37
Forced Drop Outs - 1
Missed Tackles - 26
Ineffective Tackles - 19
Errors - 11
Verdict: My head is telling me the Sharks but I reckon the Warriors are a chance here. Will I or won’t I? Yeah, why not. Warriors for me.
Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”. Don’t really know why but …
https://youtu.be/AWAsI3U2EaE
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week. Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by Dragons-fanboy on
Newbie from Perth,
My pleasure mate! I would like to think I am open-minded and open for such a discussion. Seeing these opinions of others including yourself and Baggy
and Mary was intriguing to me. Thanks for the kind words buddy I appreciate it heaps! I would love to say you have such an amazing footy brain with those analyses and then providing the entertainment with the music in the end. Most certainly one of a kind!
Cheers mate and hope you are staying safe!
Submitted by MGM on
Dragons-fanboy, my heart goes out to you ... and I am Eels/Storm biased.
Newbie, Baggy, Mary and just about everyone are right to be outraged,
but after the dust has settled it's obvious that your original comments about the media doing what they are paid to do and the fact that these guys get more up close and personal than the average married couple, ..it does make you ask the question "who was put in danger"?
But the rules are there to help us keep our beloved game operational, so that is the highest priority.
Was it not possible for the Dragons hierarchy to provide the team with a celebration for winning a game that we ALL thought was impossible ... they must have been SO hyped , and I'm sure that's why so many of them forgot themselves !
The two biggest problems are - 1) that Vaughan is already a repeat offender and for that the sacking sends the appropriate message,
and 2) DeBelin is the very last person that should have been breaking any protocol for the next 20 years (let alone hiding under Vaughan's bed!) ... talk about handing the media a machine gun!
WHERE WERE THE MINDERS ? (could they not sense the hype after the game?)
Even "pre-covid" team managers know these guys have to be MANAGED. But in these extreme times ?? Why are THEY not being given Centerlink applications?
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
My opinion is based on the shambles that the Eels went through between 2010 and 2018, 2017 was an aberration in the process. We sucked, and to make matters worse everything went wrong inside and outside the club, players like Norman, Edwards seemingly trying their best to shred their contract, performances that were, dare I say it, worse than some of the stuff Brisbane is dishing out, and there didn't seem to be a brain cell between anyone higher up in the club. BUT................ then Brad got the roster HE wanted, punted the larrikins, and started to rebuild the culture. This is great news for the Dragons, Broncos, Bulldogs out there as it takes a bit, but once the coach has the right people on the field, and in the sheds all this fades into the background. Chin up, times will always get better.
Submitted by The Thinker on
There's a few kickers for me (regarding the Dragons party).
I think about a lot of things, but I often think about the Warriors (the team the Dragons just beat...just) who have sacrificed so much for two seasons now.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Hey Thinker,
Not sure where Mark Ashford is this week as usually he's not this late in submitting his tips? Incase he doesn't make it put him down for Manly, Rabbitohs, Roosters & Sharks.
Cheers
Submitted by Christine on
My tips are
Manly
Souths
Roosters
Sharks
May the nrl gods be good to us all ...
Submitted by Mary S on
Thanks Steel,
I was looking at doing the same thing for Mark, as his tips are usually in early. Thought he may be fishing somewhere!!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by MGM on
Thinker, I forgot to get tips in this afternoon.
Just in case you allow the the other three, my selections were
Manly
Souths
Roosters
Warriors
If not, well I'm only midfield anyway, first time I've been ahead of you though !!
Submitted by NuL1F3 on
How right you are Thinker! I was a little on the fence in regards to the party, considering the close contact during games vs possible arbitrary rules for said players. Putting things in perspective by reminding us of the sacrifices the Warriors have made to help keep this game we love going has me definitely on a side.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Hi Steel
Thanks for that. I was in Home Hill north qld and almost missed the deadline thinking first game was friday night. Will be home by monday after sight seeing with new lady (no questions please)
Submitted by Steel Panther on
All good Mark
Hope all is well and you're enjoying yourself!!
Have a good weekend.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
What's happened to lillychino this round??
Submitted by Mary S on
Didn't see any tips from 'The Butcher' or 'jpsimo' either Steel.
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by The Thinker on
Nice weather up there this time of year Mark. Enjoy!
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
Just a heads up that I'll have a bit to work on this week to get the tipping comp up to scratch with the venue changes and what not.
I'll have the tipping comp updated as soon as I can, but if I'm later than usual, you'll know why.
Where else but Queensland :-)
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
At least we can all see our teams without having to travel to disease ridden places south of the border. Sliver linings indeed.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round seventeen. Only four games but just two of us got them all right - well done to Pabdul and Johnny Awesome. Outstanding work.
If anyone notices anything that needs attention just let me know.
The relocation of the NRL has left us with a few eggs to unscramble with the information displaying in our tipping competition...but we are working on it, and we will have the round 18 tipping page published as soon as we can.
Note that the first game this round isn't until Friday night, so we have a little more time.
All the best
The Thinker