North Queensland Cowboys vs Parramatta Eels – Friday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Let's talk about the weather shall we? It's 7.30am as I write this and the current temperature in Townsville is 26.6 degrees (and feels like 29). In Parramatta right now it's 17 degrees. On Friday they're expecting a top of 31, and it will feel like that even with a kick-off just before 8pm. Welcome to the tropics. But come on Thinker, these guys are fit athletes, and the Eels have said all week they're not worried about it. You'd be willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on that, except they played the Cowboys earlier this season in Darwin. Darwin is tropical all year round (it's just less tropical in the winter months). On that occasion, the Cowboys absolutely belted the Eels 35-4. The Cowboys didn't score a point until the 30th minute but ended up scoring six tries. Three of those tries were in the last six minutes. That giant Eels pack wilted late in that game and that same giant Eels pack are fronting up on Friday night. The Cowboys have impressed me with their fitness all year, and they've had an extra week off to freshen up. They also didn't have to travel, which makes a big difference for a team that has to travel a lot. With twenty minutes to go, one of these teams will have fresher legs than the other, and a sell out crowd willing them on. This is also the biggest game anyone in this Eels side has ever played. They have no preliminary finals experience in that line-up (when Campbell-Gillard last played for the Panthers they finished 10th). The Cowboys have four players who have won a grand final (Townsend, Holmes, Feldt and Taumalolo) and additional big match experience given so many of them played Origin football this year. The only Eel with such experience is Junior Paulo, and he'll be too exhausted to draw on that experience as he heaves his enormous frame up and down the field in that stifling humidity. Line-ups are virtually the same as previous outings, although the signals I'm getting out of the Eels are telling me that Opacic is next to no chance of playing. Perhaps Simonsson comes in as a winger and Blake moves to the centres, but I'll leave those decisions with the Eels coach. I'm fairly confident here, although there is a little voice in my head reminding me that the NRL would prefer an all-Sydney grand final. I hope poor decisions don't steal a grand final contest off the Cowboys here (and Cowboys fans don't need me reminding them of official indiscretions in big matches). My margin prediction would imply this game could be a fizzer, but I don't think so. I'm thinking a gripping contest for 60 minutes, and then:

Verdict – Cowboys by 14

Result – Eels 24 defeated Cowboys 20

Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Saturday night – Accor Stadium

If the Cowboys are well-rested the Panthers are really well-rested. They've played one game in a month, and they haven't left Penrith. This venue is not far from Penrith, and while it's their home game they'll be playing at the Rabbitohs home ground. A bit of luck for the Bunnies on that front, they finished 7th this season but they haven't really played an away final this series. No rest for the Bunnies though, and a few of their troops might need some luck to get through the 80 minutes. My biggest concern is for Alex Johnston, a prolific finisher and wise head. Should he succumb to injury, the Bunnies have no obvious replacement on the bench. They're still without the suspended Tom Burgess, whose impact off the bench has been enormous for the Bunnies this season. That said, they won without him last week, and convincingly so. It's worth looking back on two previous contests between these sides as a guide to his game, and on both occasions the Panthers prevailed. The first was the 2021 grand final, where the Panthers prevailed 14-12. Since then the Panthers have lost centres Burton and Momirovski, but their replacements (Crichton and Tago) are more than handy. The Rabbitohs are now without Reynolds, Sua, Marshall and the suspended Tom Burgess. Notably they didn't Mitchell in that grand final, and I'm happy to argue that the Bunnies win that grand final if he's playing. For the non-believers, take a look at how the Bunnies were travelling this season when Mitchell was unavailable, and take a look at them now. The other important game to look at was not that long ago. In round 23 the Panthers won 26-22, and they won without Cleary and Luai. The Bunnies probably should have won that game too, providing they iced the opportunities they created. I can offer all the 'what ifs' in the world, but in the end the Panthers won, and they win a lot. In week one of the finals, Clearly was a man possessed. He dominated that game, and his kicking game will be keeping the Rabbitohs up at night. They've been practising catching those bombs all week, but there's nothing like the pressure of a big game and four or five well-rested Panthers running at you at full steam. He can be stopped but it isn't easy. To be any chance the Rabbits need to put pressure on Clearly on those kick plays, and they need to slow the Panthers momentum in the first 2-3 tackles of sets. It's easy for me to say it. It's much harder for the Rabbitohs to do it. The Rabbitohs can win this (particularly if Mitchell has a game for the ages), and I'll be honest, I'd prefer it if they did, but I'm tipping an injury free and well-rested Panthers line-up to progress to the grand final. They are the benchmark, and they probably need to have an off night to lose.

Verdict – Panthers by 7

Result – Panthers 32 defeated Rabbitohs 12

Wally Lewis - finals week three (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

• COWBOYS (3rd) vs Eels (4th)
• PANTHERS (1st) vs Rabbitohs (7th)