North Queensland Cowboys vs Parramatta Eels – Friday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Let's talk about the weather shall we? It's 7.30am as I write this and the current temperature in Townsville is 26.6 degrees (and feels like 29). In Parramatta right now it's 17 degrees. On Friday they're expecting a top of 31, and it will feel like that even with a kick-off just before 8pm. Welcome to the tropics. But come on Thinker, these guys are fit athletes, and the Eels have said all week they're not worried about it. You'd be willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on that, except they played the Cowboys earlier this season in Darwin. Darwin is tropical all year round (it's just less tropical in the winter months). On that occasion, the Cowboys absolutely belted the Eels 35-4. The Cowboys didn't score a point until the 30th minute but ended up scoring six tries. Three of those tries were in the last six minutes. That giant Eels pack wilted late in that game and that same giant Eels pack are fronting up on Friday night. The Cowboys have impressed me with their fitness all year, and they've had an extra week off to freshen up. They also didn't have to travel, which makes a big difference for a team that has to travel a lot. With twenty minutes to go, one of these teams will have fresher legs than the other, and a sell out crowd willing them on. This is also the biggest game anyone in this Eels side has ever played. They have no preliminary finals experience in that line-up (when Campbell-Gillard last played for the Panthers they finished 10th). The Cowboys have four players who have won a grand final (Townsend, Holmes, Feldt and Taumalolo) and additional big match experience given so many of them played Origin football this year. The only Eel with such experience is Junior Paulo, and he'll be too exhausted to draw on that experience as he heaves his enormous frame up and down the field in that stifling humidity. Line-ups are virtually the same as previous outings, although the signals I'm getting out of the Eels are telling me that Opacic is next to no chance of playing. Perhaps Simonsson comes in as a winger and Blake moves to the centres, but I'll leave those decisions with the Eels coach. I'm fairly confident here, although there is a little voice in my head reminding me that the NRL would prefer an all-Sydney grand final. I hope poor decisions don't steal a grand final contest off the Cowboys here (and Cowboys fans don't need me reminding them of official indiscretions in big matches). My margin prediction would imply this game could be a fizzer, but I don't think so. I'm thinking a gripping contest for 60 minutes, and then:
Verdict – Cowboys by 14
Result – Eels 24 defeated Cowboys 20
Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Saturday night – Accor Stadium
If the Cowboys are well-rested the Panthers are really well-rested. They've played one game in a month, and they haven't left Penrith. This venue is not far from Penrith, and while it's their home game they'll be playing at the Rabbitohs home ground. A bit of luck for the Bunnies on that front, they finished 7th this season but they haven't really played an away final this series. No rest for the Bunnies though, and a few of their troops might need some luck to get through the 80 minutes. My biggest concern is for Alex Johnston, a prolific finisher and wise head. Should he succumb to injury, the Bunnies have no obvious replacement on the bench. They're still without the suspended Tom Burgess, whose impact off the bench has been enormous for the Bunnies this season. That said, they won without him last week, and convincingly so. It's worth looking back on two previous contests between these sides as a guide to his game, and on both occasions the Panthers prevailed. The first was the 2021 grand final, where the Panthers prevailed 14-12. Since then the Panthers have lost centres Burton and Momirovski, but their replacements (Crichton and Tago) are more than handy. The Rabbitohs are now without Reynolds, Sua, Marshall and the suspended Tom Burgess. Notably they didn't Mitchell in that grand final, and I'm happy to argue that the Bunnies win that grand final if he's playing. For the non-believers, take a look at how the Bunnies were travelling this season when Mitchell was unavailable, and take a look at them now. The other important game to look at was not that long ago. In round 23 the Panthers won 26-22, and they won without Cleary and Luai. The Bunnies probably should have won that game too, providing they iced the opportunities they created. I can offer all the 'what ifs' in the world, but in the end the Panthers won, and they win a lot. In week one of the finals, Clearly was a man possessed. He dominated that game, and his kicking game will be keeping the Rabbitohs up at night. They've been practising catching those bombs all week, but there's nothing like the pressure of a big game and four or five well-rested Panthers running at you at full steam. He can be stopped but it isn't easy. To be any chance the Rabbits need to put pressure on Clearly on those kick plays, and they need to slow the Panthers momentum in the first 2-3 tackles of sets. It's easy for me to say it. It's much harder for the Rabbitohs to do it. The Rabbitohs can win this (particularly if Mitchell has a game for the ages), and I'll be honest, I'd prefer it if they did, but I'm tipping an injury free and well-rested Panthers line-up to progress to the grand final. They are the benchmark, and they probably need to have an off night to lose.
Verdict – Panthers by 7
Result – Panthers 32 defeated Rabbitohs 12
Wally Lewis - finals week three (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning
- COWBOYS (3rd) vs Eels (4th)
- PANTHERS (1st) vs Rabbitohs (7th)
Comments
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Tigerholic you have in recent times put the needle into the vouyer to put his tips in early it would only be fair for you now to put yours in first show the other two your hand.
Of course you will need to assure all that these WILL NOT BE CHANGED before kick-off.
Submitted by tigerholic on
Rocket
Blah, Blah, Blah, leave the advice for those with their feet out of the water, there are smarter minds around than a bloke clinging to the top ten.
Tiger
Submitted by MGM on
Hahaha, love that rivalry ... that was a great comeback Tiger !
You three or four at the top have given us the 'Grandstand finish" that I was calling for last week .
There are no gimme's in the last three matches (unless you're a Panthers tragic) and the quality of finals footy so far has been magnificent.
You couldn't have scripted the comp any better than the "footy gods" have done for you Thinker !
Submitted by tigerholic on
Cheers MGM
The next two games are as tough as any to pick all year. You can write down the pro's and con's for either side to win both matches and still come up with a 50/50 decision.
Anyways, that's footy tipping for you mate, when the cards fall your way it's all sweet with dry feet.
Enjoy the Public Holiday tomorrow, I am rostered to work unfortunately but that's how the cookie crumbles.
Tiger
Submitted by newbie from perth on
"Dia duit gach duine" i dteanga ní mo theanga féin,
OK, no mucking about, let’s do this thing …
Cowboys vs. Eels @ Townsville
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys
Verdict: The Cowboys have had a great year so far and with the bonus of playing at home, will be going all out to win this and book themselves a ticket to the Big Dance. While they did beat the Sharks to get the extra week off, I didn’t read too much into that win. Exciting and emotional yes but thought they could’ve done better.
The Eels have now won four of their last five games and their 40-4 pasting of a red-hot Raiders last week might be an indication that they’ve finally playing themselves into some sort of form at just the right time.
OK, the last time these two played it was the Cowboys romping in 35-4 but that was back in Round 8 and a lot of things have changed since then. Having said that though, I have to remind myself the Cowboys are rested and are always hard to beat at home with the crowd behind them.
This one is a hard one to pick and you can make a case for either side but the Eels are playing some really good footy at the moment and I keep thinking of that “window of opportunity”. Even though they struggle a bit away from Sydney, I have a feeling they might be able to get up in this one. Eels by 6.
Panthers vs. Rabbitohs @ Accor
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers
Verdict: As we all know this is last year’s GF rematch and it’s a shame that one of them won’t be there the following week. Regardless, this should be an absolute cracker.
Yes, there’s been a lot of talk about last year’s GF with regards to it being a 2 point margin and Latrell not being there but you have to remember that since then the Panthers have got even better whereas Souths scraped into the eight, eventually finishing in 7th position.
Mind you, the Rabbitohs have been in devastating form leading into this and are a genuine chance of causing the upset here. They’ve knocked off the Roosters and Sharks in the past fortnight but the Panthers will be the acid test.
As talented as the Rabbitohs are (and not discounting the Latrell Mitchell factor), I still think the Panthers have been the best side all year. They’re rested and will play their usual clinical game and barring any unforeseen problems with injuries or tactics from Souths, should get up here and march into another Grand Final. Panthers by 6.
Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…
Had this (vinyl) album back "when I wore a younger man's clothes" and track 4, side 2 really blew my 13 year old mind (in a good way). Goes for 7 minutes but well worth the listen. Turn this one up when it gets to 3:58 and start turning it down around the 5:10 mark 🤪
https://youtu.be/CfjNpgZ4C5Q
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and if your team is still in the race, may they win by 40 points! Enjoy your Thursday off and see y’all next week. Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Keep your binoculars trained on him don't blink that old Tiger is full of rat cunning
Submitted by The Thinker on
@MGM
It's a terrific NRL competition this season and a terrific tipping competition too.
We could end up with a three-way tie for first.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Mary S on
Some figures that may be of interest ahead of the Cowboys/Eels match tomorrow -
For the last week max temp in Townsville has been 30 - 31 degrees C
At 7.50pm (kick off time) – and the following don’t change/drop throughout the evening:
Temp = 24 - 25 degrees C
Humidity = 84-85%
Dew Point = 21 - 25 degrees C
In comparison,(at the same time) the Eels have been more used to
Temp = 15 - 16 degrees C
Humidity = 57-60%
Dew Point = 7 - 10 degrees C (if not raining)
The Eels played a fantastic game last week, but I would wonder at their ability to cope with the more trying weather conditions they will encounter tomorrow!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Mary S on
After posting my previous comment, I refreshed the website and found the preview posted by The Boss on the Cowboys/Eels game.
It is all about the weather up here. Currently we are on a par with Darwin. Their temp is slightly higher over the last week, but Townsville's humidity has been higher than Darwin over the same period.
Breeze, if any, is slight at present, and night temp in Townsville can still be 22 - 24 degrees at 2am. How do I know - sleep can be patchy if you're not running an air con!!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Rob181 on
Congrats to Footychick - Tigerholic - The Voyeur on being in a three way tie so close to the end of the season - best of luck to all three of you & your going to need it.
The 2 games this week could go either way & having lived on Townsville for 6.5 years - I'm predicting the HOT & HUMID weather to be contributing factor in the outcome - hence I'm going for the Cows. Nowadays I have soft spot for the Bunnies - another decision voting with the heart & not the head - when will I ever learn :)
Submitted by tigerholic on
Cheers Rob81
I just had a quick look at where you sit on the tipping table, what I can ascertain straight away is that to be that far down you must have been following Rockets tips and not mine, next year you will know better.
You are correct about the two games this weekend, everything you factor in to the choices can be equalled with something from the other team.
I would be honoured to at least stay equal with the Footy Chick as she for me has a tremendous eye/nose for picking winners.
I thought that the voyeur had the comp sown up but he went astray and left the door ajar and when I peeked inside I didn't see Rocket, Mark Ashford, The Thinker, Big Pete or any other regular tipsters inside.
Anyway mate, I write this post from inside prison, must go and make sure all of the prisoners are still here.
Have a great weekend, enjoy the footy and I hope you return next year for the fun and banter on The Thinker's site.
Tiger
Submitted by Rob181 on
Hey Tiger
Nah - I suffered from Thursday night syndrome for the second successive year - in whomever I picked to win Thursdays game - lost. Add to that voting with the heart (Broncos) and a couple of "mad Monday" selections all took their toll.
Are you really a "baggy arse"...enjoy the weekend & best of luck with the tipping...
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Heya Tiger - the prisoners will make it easy for you. You've done well this NRL season, but Footy Chick is the benchmark here - year in and year out. I've only ever come 2nd x twice at Thinkers Tipping. So with a three way tussle - good luck ALL.
Broncos cost me on a few occasion, like Newcastle did. But as for my my boys after Round 18 - SHOCKING is all I can say.
Mark A was like me - had the tippers hat on but we both tipped it the wrong way. Actually my daughter is heading in his direction to visit Marks butcher at Bribie. She's in Brisbane at present with flights very aggressive at present, due to fog and storms this morning where cancellations were the as usual.
Cheers Tigger and all the best on the deciders to decide who plays in G/Final 2022.
Big Pete
Submitted by tigerholic on
Hi Rob181
Being a Tigers fan, I can feel your pain with tipping with with the heart and before I get jumped by tipsters noticing that I hardly tipped my team this year, I think I needed the Tigers once for a clean round and they failed.
I'm not a baggy arse but a Correctional Supervisor, been doing the job for 27 years and I have to say it's a great job, always having a laugh, looking out for each other, mates for life all of that stuff.
What do you do for a crust?
Tiger
Submitted by tigerholic on
Hey BigPeteBx
Nice to hear from you mate, as always this tipping site is more than just another competition to assist us follow the footy, this site allows us to exchange banter, form friendships, enjoy a common interest and competing for the Honour of sitting atop of the Thinkers Castle.
Prisoners behaved well today for me anyway, it was a quiet day with no issues, one more shift before the weekend and then it's golf, footy, and footy again, I might even watch the AFL GF.
Enjoy mate, take care, it might be time for a rum and coke.
Tiger
Submitted by The Thinker on
Newbie
Here's my song for the week. I haven't a clue what they're singing about, I'm just impressed that we have some Queensland origin fans in South Korea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruvJmvI6_q4
Submitted by The Thinker on
Team update - Alex Johnston is out for the Rabbits
Richie Kennar the likely replacement - I hope he's been practising under the high ball.
Submitted by Princess on
There has been a few comments this year re changing tips last minute. Is it possible and/or better to not show other peoples tips before the games?
Submitted by tigerholic on
Afternoon All
Just wondering when the deliberating will cease for Footy Chick and The Voyeur, come on guys get your tips in, the fans are waiting.
Tiger
Submitted by The Voyeur on
Good on ya tiger, with all your chat we have just been waiting for you as obviously your the “new pace setter”…..and fabulous as making sure we (in particular me) know about letting the door open for you……..hahaha
Good luck, been a great season, for me I would rather have a chance at winning vs finishing 1st =, so game on
Good luck Tiger and Footy C
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Evenin there Tiger - I looked at temps and humidity for Townsville as at 5pm and rather warmish I say. Yes mate, more than a tipping site here as many of us have other sports following to also interest us. UK EPL in break this weekend due to International duties. I don't think you follow it (EPL) do you Tiger, if you do what is your team as there are several here follow clubs in UK. Most that I know of are Arsenal supporters or take a liking to them.
I'll ride with Swans in AFL as Buddy attempts to secure his first. My boys went out last weekend by a 1pt margin to Swans.
Couple of friends I know living in Withcott just out of your place moved from Regency Downs a couple of months ago.
Cheers Champ and must push on - again, good luck in the Trifecta (final 3 NRL matches) with the Trifecta (Top 3 Tippers).
Big Pete
Submitted by tigerholic on
Cheers Voyeur
We are now in the hands of the footy gods, footy tipping is fantastic distraction to our every day lives.
Good luck to you too mate and to Footy Chick.
Tiger
Submitted by tigerholic on
Hey Big Pete
I don't follow any other sport than the NRL. I do watch the big games in the AFL, will be going for the Swans tomorrow.
Have a great weekend old mate.
Tiger
Submitted by Christine on
Cowboys
Penrith
Submitted by tigerholic on
Hey Christine
How are you going?
Tiger
Submitted by Mary S on
Hi Princess,
Half the fun on this sight (IMO), is the back & forth banter on who has tipped which team, when, and if they changed their mind at the last minute.
I'm sure several of us (including me) tip on other sights too and it is interesting to see how others are trending, but by far this sight is the most fun.
Enjoy the match!!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Esra Star on
Yeah,thanks,mate. That is 5 minutes of my life i will never get back,lol.
Submitted by The Thinker on
That pass.....hmmmmmm
Submitted by Christine on
Tiger
I am still sick I have the virus that is going around everyone is getting it when you first get it it starts out like a slightly irritated gland in your throat on one side the next day it is bang full blowen sick as anything that lasts they say seven to ten days but you can go out you can wear a mask but you are contagious , for me it lasted twelve days got better for a week then it comes back with advengenience , my father I am convinced gave it to me the second time but I am told everyone is getting it 4bof my cousins have it the youngest is 7 his turned into plurality Tiger all I can do is wait for it to go again & based on last time I would say I would have about a week to go the weather is not helping it it's a combination of viral , allergies ,wind with pollen affecting your allergies triggers your respiratory & the coughing is driving everyone crazy especially thr night air the dampness in the air at night makes it all that worse but at least I can sleep that isn't affected & speaking of that I was staying home more before I got sick , I did alot of sleeping I thought at the time it was just border but now I wonder if it was because I was getting sick & that was the early signs of it , maybe apart from that Tiger I am ok how about you Tiger say hi to the family for all of us on the thinkers site Tiger & I will speak to you again soon ...
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Well done Voyeur....great "no guts, no glory" approach.
U deserve to take it out from here mate. Well done
Submitted by tigerholic on
Well Done Voyeur
Can't argue with that result mate, at least right at this moment. Enjoy your number one position mate, well deserved.
Tiger
Submitted by The Voyeur on
Thx Steel…….I know many will say it was a lucky pick, but I have been on Parra all week, thought their little experienced men would get the job done……but Lane, holy hell what a game, I sure owe him a beer !!!!
Submitted by The Voyeur on
Thx Tiger…..that last 2 mins, unreal
Submitted by tigerholic on
Bloody Hell Christine
You are amazing mate. You face this stuff and yet you still manage to keep up a brave face and I admire your positivity.
Love your involvement on this site, you mean so much to a lot of us and it is a beautiful thing that you can share your real life challenges.
Take care
Tiger
Submitted by Mary S on
Well done Voyeur.
Hell of a game, down to the last few minutes.
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Thanks Tiger with other and UK I asked about.
I'm sure Baggy G will be a happy man over tonight's result, as he is an Eels man through and through. I also tipped Eels with a margin of 4 pts, but here on Thinker site, neither Baggy or I will finish amongst the leaders.
Its been an interesting Thinker comp and NRL season.
Cheers and keep well
Big Pete.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
@ The Boss
Thanks for your SOTW Boss. I watched it and thought “why has the Boss put this up?”
Yeah, it was sweet and cutesy but really? At least the girls are making a living from it (hopefully). Anyway, I closed it down and went back to your comment about “Qld Origin fans” and thought “huh?”…
Clicked on the link again and looked and looked and was just about to give up when I spotted her. There she was, second from the right 🤪. She has to be OK if her “costume” is anything to go by. Thanks brother…
@ Baggy
Baggy my friend … have you come down from the ceiling yet mate? That was a great effort by your BOYS tonight. The stats and crowd were against them and they still managed to get in. That was an epic match for sure and glad I watched it. Congratulations mate. Now all you gotta do is watch tomorrow night’s game to see who you’ll be playing and hope the winner gets bashed from pillar to post 😁. Cheers.
@ Cowboy Fans
Commiserations on tonight. They can hold their heads high. These lessons, as hard as they are to bear, can only make them hungrier and stronger. With the young fellas you have, it won’t (shouldn’t) be too long before you taste success 💪. Cheers.
@ Big Pete
You obviously know who’s on top of the EPL at the moment. The only game we’ve lost was against United. That really hurts 😣. I know there’s still 31 games left in the H&A season but “Go Gooners!” Cheers mate.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Tiger it Looks like you dipped a toe in the water too early the vouyer was waiting.
Isn't that incredible baggy the most blantent forward pass we've seen in 36 years Get you into another grand final.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Hard to believe, but we did it. Am still questioning that first try as the Boss said hmmmmmmmmmmmm. We made it, a good game and the right result in the end ;P. Wondering how much it took out of our tank, but that said, if you can't burst out of the dressing shed for a GF then you won't ever be in the right frame to play club footy. Congrats to Mitch, first daughter and a prelim win on the same day, how good would it be to have that and a GF win at the end of the week.
Rocket, the most blantent forward pass for a try was the Ponies this year against the Roosters. at least both players were close to the 30M line, not 5 M forward. Specks and planks rocket, specks and planks.
Submitted by MGM on
@Rocket ... Conveniently forgot about that one Rocket ??
You enjoy the win Baggy.
You won't find very many NRL matches where there aren't at least a couple of blunders from match officials (ain't that right Rocket?), and when it happens in the first 5 minutes that leaves almost the entire match to level up (whether that be courtesy of "the footy gods" or the ref ) and even Todd Payten said exactly that, adding that looking at replays of the pass "it was pretty tight".
In fact I don't think I would be the only one that suspects that a ref with a guilty conscience levels it up on purpose when he gets the opportunity.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Congrats Baggy_Gee
It must be terrific to have your team in the grand final after such a long drought.
Apparently Jimmy Barnes was part of the pre match entertainment when they last won in 1986, and he's back this year. Might be an omen.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by The Thinker on
As for that forward pass - had that happened in the final five minutes (to put the Eels four points in front) rather than the first five minutes there would have been an uproar. Instead, most people are willing to accept it as part of the game (including the Cowboys coach who was terrific after the match). And I'll accept that too. It was a terrific effort by the Eels to come back from behind and then hold on. They lost every single stat in that game, except the most important one.
I do find it unusual that we will use super slow motion replays from 5 angles to find out if a player put a toenail on the sideline, and then use that evidence to overturn a decision...and we all accept that as okay. Yet every official, every commentator, and everyone watching knew that pass went forward on every replay and on every angle, but overturning that decision by a referee is a no-go zone. I understand we don't want to be scrutinising every flat pass in the game. If we did, we'd have to stop the game every second time Mahoney passes the ball, but when it's a bit of a howler.
Anyhoo, that discussion is for another day.
All the best
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Boss, that is what came out while I was watching with my fellow tragic, it is the problem with the way the rule is written. This forward out of the hands crap is why there are so many marginal passes that annoy you when it is against you, but you call it flat when it is the BOYS you back. We need to go back to the past, where a forward pass is one that is caught in front of the player throwing the ball. People go on with crap about inertia, momentum, and if you just inside a train going 100km/h you don't move back down the carriage because of physics, all smoke and mirrors, you can pass a ball backwards at any speed. Based on that interpretation, even the lane pass for Sivo should be under doubt. I agree that stopping the play for each "flat" pass is detrimental to the game, but do it for the first 2 rounds with a magnifying glass and it will be gone pretty damn quick.
Submitted by tigerholic on
To All of the Parra Fans
Congrats on making the Big Dance after waiting since I think 2009, I'm afraid you will have to wait for a GF victory for another year at least, the Panthers will be far too good for the slippery Eels.
I do hope that Ash Klein does not get appointed as GF referee, I remember back to the game against the Tigers in Townsville, his bunker ruling ruined what should have been a fabulous victory for the Tigers.
Who does everyone think should be the Referee for the GF or have they announced it already.
Let's hope that the GF is not decided over referee or bunker blunders, let the game flow. I do believe that when there is a blatant forward pass, the bunker needs to intervene.
Tiger
Enjoy the week Baggy and all of the other Parra fans, I envy you all being in the GF.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Congratulations tiger girl looks like you've collected the wooden spoon Being a tiger supporter I sure you know what to do with it
Cheers.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Baggy Tiger has written you off He's jumped straight in the lifeboat before we've called for women and children The eels are a side who have demonstrated that they can beat the panthers And wouldn't I love to see it.
Submitted by Mary S on
Agree with you rocket - would love to see the Eels win the GF - lets hope they are slippery enough!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
How good was both NRLW games today. Good array of skill and attractive football across the park. Eels have become the first team to have both in the GF. Thanks Rocket it would be good to see the Panthers beaten, but if we turn up like last time we won't even make the score card. As for Ref that young red head kid has shown that he is pretty good and has that feel for the game that a ref needs. He was a bit lax in the first game I saw him in, the BOYS v the Titans, both teams started to take over from him in the back end, but apart from that I like the kid.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Is Bill Harrigan available?
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Steel he I would gladly have back
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