North Queensland Cowboys vs Cronulla Sharks – Friday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The Sharks couldn't have time their trip to North Queensland any better. The Cowboys will be resting Nanai and Holmes, but Deardon and Gilbert have been named to back up less than 48 hours after a brutal Origin encounter. The Cowboys will also be without Taulagi and McLean who were late withdrawals from Origin. For the Sharks, Takalai has been named on an extended bench and may get injected into the seventeen. I expect he'd be keen to get back on the park and move on from a disappointing Wednesday night. Despite all that the Cowboys are still a warm favourite here, but I'm with the Sharks whose preparation for this game has been free from disruption. Looks a game though, and possibly the match of the round.
Verdict – Sharks by 1
Parramatta Eels vs New Zealand Warriors – Friday night – CommBank Stadium
The Warriors, following on from their emotional return to Mt Smart have had a week off at home, but have to drag themselves back across the ditch for a game in Sydney (a city where their record is far from great). To make matters worse, the squad are battling a Covid and a flu outbreak. Their coach won't be coming with them, and neither will Dallin Watene-Zelezniak. Reece Walsh is set to play but is battling the effects of Covid himself. His recent decision to leave the Warriors next season may wrangle a few, but I expect most would understand why he's going. This is exactly the sort of game the Eels could lose, but they shouldn't. Note that Paulo has been named to play.
Verdict – Eels by 8
Sydney Roosters vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday afternoon – Central Coast Stadium, Gosford
The Roosters find themselves outside the eight and struggling to build any momentum as we begin the steady ascent toward finals football. They've named all their Origin players on Saturday, including Lindsay Collins which might be some indication as to how desperate they are getting to turn their season around. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is an important inclusion on the bench for the Chooks - as we know there win rates are much better when he's on the park. The Dragons have named Ben Hunt and I imagine he will play but he did a lot of work on Wednesday. Given the Dragons were quite soundly beaten by the Baby Broncos in round seventeen I'm sticken with the chickens in a must-win game. Note the neutral venue tipsters.
Verdict – Roosters by 4
Manly Sea Eagles vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday night – 4 Pines Park
Both sides have named their Origin players for Saturday night (although I will have to check the status of Dane Gagai who may be facing a suspension). The Sea Eagles have won three of their last four, and that loss was a narrow one to the Cowboys which is pretty strong form. Meanwhile the last four teams the Knights have beaten are currently 13th, 14th, 15th and 16th. This is harder, and they're away from home.
Verdict – Sea Eagles by 14
Gold Coast Titans vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night – Cbus Super Stadium
It would be hard to pick the Broncos on paper - their squad is basically a bunch of kids being led around the park by a bloke whose body is held together with duct tape and good intentions. That said, this is much the same squad that beat the Dragons convincingly last week, and the Dragons are going better than the Titans. Note that Carrigan and Oates have been named on an extended bench so there is some chance one or both will play. I suspect that they won't, but it's worth keeping an eye out for any team changes. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui has been named for the Titans but he's facing two separate charges out of the Origin match so, again, I will have to look into the circumstances around that. The Broncos are finals bound and on the cusp of the top four. I expect they'll get there too.
Verdict – Broncos by 4
Wests Tigers vs Penrith Panthers – Sunday afternoon – CommBank Stadium
Last plays first and the Panthers are resting all seven of their Origin players on the weekend. Even with that, and even playing away from home, the Panthers are a short priced favourite. That's hardly a surprise, given the depth at the Panthers and given the woes at the Tigers, but I'm going to do something a little bit crazy here. For a few weeks Adam Doueihi has been wanting to play in the halves, and he gets his chance. Hastings moves to lock. In a team that has struggled all year Doueihi is one Tiger that wants to make things better. He's possibly their best player, and on Sunday afternoon I'm hoping he shows everyone why. The Tigers are also welcoming back a tonne of experience this week in Tamou, Roberts and Maumalo. This won't be easy at all - the Panthers still have about eight internationals in their starting side, but here I am, tipping the Tigers like a maniac. Go the stripey cats!
Verdict – Tigers by 2
Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – AAMI Park
Has the mighty Storm empire started to crumble. Back-to-back losses, and big losses, is something we haven't seen from this team since...forever, really. Most of the rugby league world has spotted where the Storm are leaking most of their points, so it's safe to assume Bellamy knows too. I'm sure that's been a key focus all week, and I'm sure the Raiders will test it out. I'm expecting the Storm will be better in that regard, but far from perfect. That could be enough though, providing they limit the damage and score enough points in attack to get the win. The return of Kaufusi should help with the defence, and the return of Munster should help with the attack. Returning to AAMI Park won't hurt either. A big watch on Harry Grant who picked up a cork injury on Wednesday night. He's been named here, and with Brandon Smith unavailable Grant would be a massive out if he can't back up.
Verdict – Storm by 1
Canterbury Bulldogs vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Sunday night – Accor Stadium
It's easy to forget (or am I just forgetful?) that the Bunnies made the grand final last year. They didn't miss by much either, and one wonders what could have been if Latrell Mitchell was available to play in that final. The Bunnies are undefeated since his return. Mitchell seems to have a compounding influence on the fortunes of his team - it's not just what he brings on the field, it's that their are players in that side that improve when he's out there. All of a sudden, people are starting to talk about the Bunnies as a premiership threat again. That seems a little premature (and let's remind ourselves that these same people were also saying the Bunnies won't make the finals not so long ago). Tipping the Bunnies with confidence here.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 14
Wally Lewis - round eighteen selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning
- COWBOYS vs Sharks
- EELS vs Warriors
- ROOSTERS vs Dragons
- SEA EAGLES vs Knights
- Titans vs BRONCOS
- Tigers vs PANTHERS
- STORM vs Raiders
- Bulldogs vs RABBITOHS
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round seventeen. Quite a few of us got four from four, but a special shout out to the Biggest Mind in Rugby League (aka The Thinker) who doesn't get everything right very often.
If anyone notices anything that needs attention with the tipping scores just let me know.
As you can see I have published the round 18 page, and I will try and work out what I'm going to say about the Origin game on Wednesday night (still thinkering).
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Rick on
Well done Thinker that is not easy to do during these tricky Origin rounds.
Submitted by donkey on
nsw coach, think twice before you select players against
the might qld team
Submitted by newbie from perth on
"Dia duit gach duine" i dteanga ní mo theanga féin,
Nothing much in this week’s intro other than to say that last night’s Origin decider was one of the best I’ve seen. Not because the Maroons one 💪 but just because. That’s what footy is all about and why, even with stupid rule changes and inept refereeing sometimes, I love this freakin’ game. OK, let’s do this thing …
Just remember: Teams marked with an * have had an extra week’s break due to the bye.
Cowboys vs. Sharks @ Townsville
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys
Cowboys*
"From a possession and field position point of view, for the first 60 minutes yeah we dominated them, they didn't have a play inside our 20-metre zone up until 50 odd minutes. But some of the tries that they scored shouldn't have been scored, which is the part that really nags at me," coach Todd Payten said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 54%
Completion Rate - 80% (32/40)
Post Contact Metres - 488
Tackle Breaks - 48
Missed Tackles - 36
Errors - 11
Penalties Conceded – 4
Sharks
"It was a pleasing performance. We got right at it, straight off the bat. The players that came in, all fulfilled their roles individually and together we just looked like a team and played like a team tonight. It takes a long time to be able to take a team and steer them around the park but Trindall has trained a lot with us, that wasn't a fluke for him. He's worked hard and he's trained a lot in that position and that's why I'm so confident in him as a player," coach Craig Fitzgibbon said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 51%
Completion Rate - 83% (36/43)
Post Contact Metres - 578
Tackle Breaks - 36
Missed Tackles - 27
Errors - 7
Penalties Conceded - 10
Verdict: This should be a cracker of a game. The Cowboys are humming along nicely and to a slightly lesser extent, the Sharks are as well. Not knowing exactly who will be backing up for the Cowboys and considering the form the Sharks showed last week against the Storm makes this contest a hard one to pick. I think the Sharks will give this a fair old shake but I might stick with the Cowboys at home by 6.
Eels vs. Warriors @ CommBank
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Eels
Eels
"It is a tough competition. We have won 10 games and we are still not at our best, so we have put ourselves in a position that if we can find our best each week that is what we are chasing. I think we have spent 80 or 90 weeks in a row in the top eight so we must be reasonably consistent to do that, we have got to try our best every week and teams are showing us plenty of respect at the moment because they are coming after us. We are still miles off where we need to be but we are tracking the right way," coach Brad Arthur said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 49%
Completion Rate - 75% (31/41)
Post Contact Metres - 603
Tackle Breaks - 40
Missed Tackles - 37
Errors - 12
Penalties Conceded - 9
Warriors*
"Very, very happy compared to the previous couple of weeks or month or so. It's been a great week coming home, the excitement around the game and the players really feeling like they are at home. To put in a performance, a gritty performance I thought, capped off a good week," coach Stacey Jones said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 52%
Completion Rate - 72% (32/44)
Post Contact Metres - 751
Tackle Breaks - 39
Missed Tackles - 17
Errors - 14
Penalties Conceded - 5
Verdict: The Eels bounced back last week against the Tigers but didn’t impress me with their defence all that much. The Warriors beat the Tigers 2 weeks ago courtesy of the emotion and crowd support back at home in NZ. They won’t have that “edge” this week and even though the Eels are all over the shop at the moment, they should be good enough to get over the Warriors. Eels by 12.
Roosters vs. Dragons @ Central Coast
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Roosters
Bookies Favourite = Roosters
Roosters*
"It was frustrating. It felt like we defended our line so well and we would just get a penalty against us. It was frustrating that we just kept giving them possession through those penalties and we weren't getting anything back. There wasn't much explanation for it, we were just getting penalties against us. It felt like we defended our line six tackles and we would get a penalty. It happened for about three or four in a row. It just kept them in the game. I felt like our D was so good but it is hard to defend three or four sets in a row, let alone against the best team in the comp," captain James Tedesco said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 50%
Completion Rate - 80% (33/41)
Post Contact Metres - 565
Tackle Breaks - 57
Missed Tackles - 53
Errors - 9
Penalties Conceded - 8
Dragons
"In their history as a club, on the baby Bronco weekend they always play out of their skin and to their credit they did that. We had periods where we'd start to get the game to where we wanted in the first half but in the second half we gave away our field position too easily. We just weren't good enough defensively," coach Anthony Griffin said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 48%
Completion Rate - 83% (31/37)
Post Contact Metres - 509
Tackle Breaks - 38
Missed Tackles - 33
Errors - 7
Penalties Conceded - 5
Verdict: Despite the run of losses they’ve had lately, the Roosters aren’t really travelling all that bad. Not sure whether the Origin guys will back up or not but pretty sure they will. The Dragons are up and down at the moment and should’ve done better last week against the Broncos. I think they should get Origin hero Ben Hunt back so that’s a plus. I know the Roosters haven’t won for a month but pretty confident they’ll have the Dragons’ measure this week. Roosters by 8. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔
Manly vs. Knights @ Brookvale
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Manly
Bookies Favourite = Manly
Manly*
"It was four minutes of mayhem at the end that we have to adjust, we have to fix, and we will. At the end of the day it was a game tonight that we had our backs against the wall, we had to win tonight and in doing so we beat the Melbourne Storm which is no easy feat. Some parts weren't pretty but there's a lot there that is positive which is what we'll take out of it," coach Des Hasler said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 54%
Completion Rate - 75% (30/40)
Post Contact Metres - 558
Tackle Breaks - 42
Missed Tackles - 40
Errors - 14
Penalties Conceded - 8
Knights
“I just thought we missed an opportunity. Whether or not we thought it was going to be an easy night given they had some guys out, I’m thinking that would play a part. There was two tries where we stopped. The first one, we just stopped moving as the ball hit the ground. There’s one other try off a kick on the goalpost where we just stopped. Then we throw an intercept. There’s 18 points that we’ve handed. That is something that I want to address and our discipline. It was hard to get a game cycle going. I thought when we did that, we started to look pretty good and we started to get on top. But it seemed to be good kick, penalty. Good kick, another penalty. Discipline, I’ll have to have to a look at that. It’s the journey we’re on and trying to eradicate the best we can. Like I said, no-one takes us lightly when we have a few out, so I don’t know why we’d do it in return,” coach Adam O'Brien said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 49%
Completion Rate - 82% (32/39)
Post Contact Metres - 469
Tackle Breaks - 33
Missed Tackles - 34
Errors - 10
Penalties Conceded - 7
Verdict: I think Manly are starting to get back into some form. They’re playing much better footy and seem to have adapted to life without Turbo. Des Hasler must be finally getting through to them. The Knights try hard but I think they are on tilt at the moment. Their effort last week at home against the Rabbitohs left a lot to be desired. Repeat that and Manly win easy. At home the Sea Eagles should be too good. Manly by 12.
Titans vs. Broncos @ Cbus
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos
Titans*
“It was awful. We were beaten by the opposition obviously convincingly in the first half, and we had a good crack at the start of the second – really happy with the way we came out and responded, slowly getting ourselves back in the game – but then we conceded a so-called try and it went the same way again,” coach Justin Holbrook. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 41%
Completion Rate - 70% (24/34)
Post Contact Metres - 483
Tackle Breaks - 26
Missed Tackles - 25
Errors - 14
Penalties Conceded - 7
Broncos
“That was a tremendous performance. We knew that some guys there had been waiting a long time for an opportunity, particularly Zac Hosking whose been waiting a long time to play his first game in the NRL, we had Tesi Niu who hadn't played for a long time, Ryan James and Xavier Wilson. So I'm really happy for those guys that they put the jersey on and did themselves and the club really proud," coach Kevin Walters said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 52%
Completion Rate - 76% (30/39)
Post Contact Metres - 478
Tackle Breaks - 33
Missed Tackles - 38
Errors - 11
Penalties Conceded - 4
Verdict: The Titans still have trouble putting a full 80 minutes together. OK, they’re at home and there’s a lot of talk about them having a serious chance against a “depleted” Broncos outfit but just remember what that “depleted” Broncos did to the Dragons last week. The Broncos are a serious side this year and I’m thinking that even being under strength, they should account for the Titans. Broncos by 12.
Tigers vs. Panthers @ CommBank
Probability @ 25-75
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers
Tigers
"I thought we did a lot of good stuff, we asked a lot of questions and we scored more points today than we have for a number of weeks. When you get a man down in the NRL it is hard to defend. I thought they had easy field position because of our poor discipline. I thought we were tough, we won the arm wrestle for a fair bit of the match I said to the guys. This week at training was the best in my five weeks and I think it showed in the performance. I can't knock their effort, I can't knock how proud I am as their coach for the effort they have put in. It is just that attention to detail," interim coach Brett Kimmorley said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 51%
Completion Rate - 87% (36/41)
Post Contact Metres - 644
Tackle Breaks - 37
Missed Tackles - 40
Errors - 9
Penalties Conceded - 8
Panthers*
"It was a bit different than what we have faced during most of the year. I don't remember having to come back in the second half, so that was good. I thought the Roosters were really good tonight. There was a lot of intensity in their defence so I was really happy we were able to get in front and then score again. I thought we were pretty good in that last 20 minutes. I think our Origin boys should be commended with such a big game coming up. Most of them haven't really been in that position before and they did a great job," coach Ivan Cleary said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 50%
Completion Rate - 81% (36/44)
Post Contact Metres - 606
Tackle Breaks - 53
Missed Tackles - 57
Errors - 11
Penalties Conceded - 3
Verdict: Last plays first. Do I need to continue? Word is that all of Penrith’s Origin players will be rested. Even so, they will get the job done. Or have I put the mocker on them? Nah. Panthers by 18.
Storm vs. Raiders @ AAMI
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm
Storm
"Our effort in the first half I thought was pretty good. With all due respect, their footy in that first half was pretty off the charts to be quite honest. I thought we were still in the game at 10-0. I didn't think we deserved 20-0 but we got it. There's some things there we probably need to improve in. But I our effort areas tonight were a lot better than last week, especially at the start of the game," coach Craig Bellamy said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 49%
Completion Rate - 86% (37/43)
Post Contact Metres - 632
Tackle Breaks - 27
Missed Tackles - 36
Errors - 5
Penalties Conceded - 9
Raiders*
"Tomorrow I'll get an apology or there'll be justification of there not being a penalty [on the last play]. We set ourselves up to win that game. It was a really tough grind in the first half and then the second half we let ourselves down, we lost our way. We had opportunities but we lost our way. When you're in a high performance business there's always going to be pressure, and when there's pressure you need courage, and there needed to be courage on that ruling on the last play of the day," coach Ricky Stuart said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 48%
Completion Rate - 70% (29/41)
Post Contact Metres - 475
Tackle Breaks - 29
Missed Tackles - 27
Errors - 15
Penalties Conceded – 6
Verdict: The Storm have not been at their usual clinical best lately (as everyone knows) and uncharacteristically have lost their last two games. On paper, the Raiders aren’t as strong as the Storm but they have improved of late and should test Melbourne. Given their potential to actually “bounce back” this week, I’m thinking the class edge will just get the Storm home in this one. Storm by 8.
Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs @ Stadium Aust
Probability @ 30-70
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs
Bulldogs*
"There was a lot of positives, I thought we hung in well in the first half when we were under a lot of pressure. In the second half we started really well and Ray [Faitala-Mariner] almost scored a try.... but obviously we need to probably play the conditions a little bit better, they probably played a little bit better than us today," assistant coach Craig Sandercock said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 51%
Completion Rate - 79% (34/43)
Post Contact Metres - 415
Tackle Breaks - 30
Missed Tackles - 43
Errors - 10
Penalties Conceded - 5
Rabbitohs
"I said to the boys in there, we had 40 per cent of our cap missing tonight, and nearly 1200 games of NRL experience, but no-one blinked through the week. I'll give the senior players a massive rap - not only for their performance but how they handled the week. Latrell here, and Cody Walker was outstanding all week, and I thought his performance tonight was outstanding as well. It's the best win I've been involved in during my time at the club, just in terms of character and being willing to pay the price and do what they had to do," coach Jason Demetriou said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:
Possession - 51%
Completion Rate - 86% (33/38)
Post Contact Metres - 539
Tackle Breaks - 34
Missed Tackles - 33
Errors - 6
Penalties Conceded - 9
Verdict: The Bulldogs aren’t really as bad as their ladder position suggests. They have improved quite a bit in recent times and have a chance here based on recent form I think. The Rabbitohs beat the Eels two weeks ago (not reading too much into that given the Eels’ confusing form) and had a big win against the Knights last week (but let a stack of points in as well). That’s mainly why I’m giving the Dogs a chance here. Having said that though, I’ve got a feeling the Bunnies will be able to do enough to get up. Rabbitohs by 12.
Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…
For those of you who actually know what House/Trance music is … here’s some from 42 years ago 🤪. If you like this band (it might surprise you who they are), get the album this is from as it’s probably their best IMO. Cheers.
https://youtu.be/hdFbVklPTjE
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week. Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by a on
Hey MGM don’t forget to put your tip in my 3 strike comp
Submitted by Mary S on
Don't forget boys & girls - it's a 6PM start tonight.
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Steel Panther on
No it's not Mary....it's an 8pm start..haha
Hope you're well!!
Submitted by MGM on
Sorry to be late Boss
My tips are in Capitals :
COWBOYS vs Sharks
EELS vs Warriors
ROOSTERS vs Dragons
SEA EAGLES vs Knights
Titans vs BRONCOS
Tigers vs PANTHERS
STORM vs Raiders
Bulldogs vs RABBITOHS
Submitted by Christine on
My tips are
Cows
Eels
Chooks
Manly
Broncos
Panthers
Storm
Souths
Good luck with your tips everyone ...
Submitted by Mary S on
Didn't even think about time differences Steel. Makes the 2nd match late for you.
Just think, Newbie can be looking at the Cowboys/Sharks match at 4pm today! Speaking of which, Cowboys are not doing so well this round.
I'm well - got too much to do, so can't afford to be sick. Mind you, there times when a virus has different ideas & selects one as a suitable candidate to spread themselves around.
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by TheScribbleKing on
Hey Thinker,
I put my tips in late Wednesday and I've just logged in to see what's new and it is saying I haven't put my tips in for this week ? Can you see anything in you side of things thanks.
My tips were:
Sharks
Eels
Roosters
Manly
Panthers
Broncos
Storm
Rabbitohs
Submitted by The Thinker on
@TheScribbleKing
I can see tipsters that have put tips in before Wednesday but I can't see yours at all.
I will email you directly to discuss.
Speak soon
The Thinker