Hi All,
My lovely lady and I are off for another trip in her camper. This time we're heading through central Qld, going to Nanango, Monto, Duarango, Emerald and tonight Charters Towers. If you think you've been cold try 2 degrees at night until here today where it's around 12 degrees. Heading up as far as Cooktown then a quick run back to Bribie. Will keep you informed and go the Maroons next Wednesday.

"Dia duit gach duine" i dteanga ní mo theanga féin,

What a numpty I am sometimes. I was looking at the ladder and couldn’t work out why the Tigers were higher on the ladder than the Bulldogs when both had won 3 games and the Bulldogs had a 13 point better differential. Turns out I’d completely forgotten that the NRL gives 2 points when a side has a bye 🤪. Not sure I understand the logic of that to be honest. Oh well, greater minds than me I suppose. OK, let’s do this thing …

Dragons vs. Rabbitohs @ WIN
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs

Dragons
"It was messy. We never, ever settled into the game. I thought it was temperament. We never really worked hard enough or direct enough to get a reward. We just never settled into the game. We did a good job on ourselves without them helping. It is short turn around and we have just got to be better than that. We came off a bye and just weren't prepared to play long minutes against a good team to gain an advantage. We were just too impatient," coach Anthony Griffin said.

Possession - 49%
Completion Rate - 67% (27/40)
Post Contact Metres - 597
Tackle Breaks - 41
Missed Tackles - 42
Errors - 15
Penalties Conceded - 5

Rabbitohs
"Tonight we did what we needed to do. There was a period in the second half where we upped our intensity in defence and that led to Alex Johnston and Taane Milne's tries and as I said to the players, that's a pretty good sign of the level we are at when we are able to go up a notch when we need to. It's always tricky when you come in after a bye and a week off to get that energy level where you need it be straight away," coach Jason Demetriou said.

Possession - 50%
Completion Rate - 74% (29/39)
Post Contact Metres - 743
Tackle Breaks - 30
Missed Tackles - 41
Errors - 10
Penalties Conceded - 6

Verdict: The Dragons have been a little inconsistent lately but they’ve won enough games to be knocking on the door for the top 8. The Rabbitohs are slowly building their combinations and have improved. Rabbitohs by 12.

Manly vs. Cowboys @ Brookvale
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys

Manly
"That was one of our better wins of the year. That was a really tough game. It was always going to be a tough game, both from the aspect of the change the Tigers had early in the week and they came really committed. It was a really tough game of footy for us and I'm really proud of the way they boys went about it. We played really disciplined footy. We've been working really hard on our attitude with possession and we've been pretty tidy in that regard," coach Des Hasler said.

Possession - 56%
Completion Rate - 84% (38/45)
Post Contact Metres - 755
Tackle Breaks - 50
Missed Tackles - 23
Errors - 9
Penalties Conceded - 3

Cowboys
"I just loved the way we competed because there a couple of line breaks against the run of play but when we made the tackle there was four or five or six players in the picture and by the next play we had everyone behind the ball. For me that was probably the difference tonight. I thought we outcompeted them. I thought for the most part we looked pretty comfortable, I thought we knew what was coming and everyone just did their job. We held another team to 12 points or less is not a bad stat to have and it just shows again how hard we are working for each other," coach Todd Payten said.

Possession - 51%
Completion Rate - 79% (35/44)
Post Contact Metres - 736
Tackle Breaks - 42
Missed Tackles - 41
Errors - 11
Penalties Conceded - 5

Verdict: Manly have looked pretty good in the last fortnight but those efforts were against average opposition. Since their loss to the Panthers, the Cowboys have got back in the groove and really turned it on last week against the Dragons. While Manly may prove a tough nut to crack, I think the Cowboys should get the job done this week without too many dramas. Cowboys by 16.

Storm vs. Broncos @ AAMI
Probability @ 80-20
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm

Storm
"Either team could have won tonight but they are a tough team to beat and it is a tough place to win so we are grateful to be going home with the points. I just give our back three a real wrap. Obviously we see their back three as a real danger - Tedesco, Tupou and Suaalii. There is not many better back threes in the competition but I thought our back three held their own good tonight and with all due respect they were probably three of our better players," coach Craig Bellamy said.

Possession - 52%
Completion Rate - 86% (33/38)
Post Contact Metres - 424
Tackle Breaks - 47
Missed Tackles - 32
Errors - 8
Penalties Conceded - 7

Broncos
"Even in my time playing and when I was on the staff here I can't remember a team that has had so many injuries, and not just bumps and bruises but actual game ending injuries and possibly weeks, months on the sideline. There are a whole host of guys who are really busted and Canberra played a tough game tonight. They were very physical and we are wearing the consequences of that now. We’ll be doing whatever we can to get them on the field but there’s going to be four, five or six missing," coach Kevin Walters said.

Possession - 50%
Completion Rate - 89% (33/37)
Post Contact Metres - 384
Tackle Breaks - 30
Missed Tackles - 38
Errors - 4
Penalties Conceded - 2

Verdict: I see the Storm are really short favourites in this one. Not sure the bookies are giving the Broncos enough respect to be honest. Same goes for the 80-20 probability rating. The Storm have lost 2 from their last 4 and still haven’t reached their very best yet. OK, the Broncos won’t have Reynolds but they’re good enough and confident enough to give this a real shake. Having said that, I still think the Storm will win, based purely on the fact they’ll be at home and still have some upside. Storm by 10.

Sharks vs. Titans @ Coffs Harbour
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks

Sharks
"We've all had some inconsistent periods across the team but when we put it together and we compete hard, we were physically there tonight but mentally we wobbled in and out of the game, but I'm also understanding of the fact that game was so stop-start it was really hard to get into any rhythm, largely due to our discipline," coach Craig Fitzgibbon said.

Possession - 46%
Completion Rate - 77% (28/36)
Post Contact Metres - 497
Tackle Breaks - 30
Missed Tackles - 22
Errors - 8
Penalties Conceded - 8

Titans
"We tried hard, we just lacked a bit of class out there. Doesn't help losing AJ yesterday, we just needed an extra spark out there, whether it's AJ or Jayden Campbell or Dave Fifita ... we competed hard, the forwards were enormous, Tino was unbelievable, Greg Marzhew fantastic. We had a lot of guys that tried hard but we just couldn't come up with a lot. I know we got beaten but I feel there's definitely improvement but we just missed one of our better players to spark us in the end," coach Justin Holbrook said.

Possession - 50%
Completion Rate - 92% (37/40)
Post Contact Metres - 647
Tackle Breaks - 41
Missed Tackles - 30
Errors - 6
Penalties Conceded - 4

Verdict: Not sure whether the Sharks will be switched on this week or not. Against anyone else other than the Titans, I would be debating the point. The Titans have slipped away alarmingly of late and now sit on the bottom of the ladder. I just can’t see that changing this week. Sharks by 18.

Warriors vs. Panthers @ Moreton Daily
Probability @ 15-85
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

Warriors
"We make an error and then our resilience to defend that wasn't there. It's as simple as that, that's where we need to get better. I spoke to the group earlier in the week about having some resilience, having some steel and we got the same result tonight. We fell back into some habits that we have to get out of this team right now," (interim) coach Stacey Jones said.

Possession - 54%
Completion Rate - 84% (33/39)
Post Contact Metres - 490
Tackle Breaks - 22
Missed Tackles - 30
Errors - 6
Penalties Conceded - 4

Panthers
"I thought we were really patient -- I think we completed 21 from 21 in the first half -- and a lot of hard work went into that ... We had a really good week, and it was good to see the Origin boys come back and play well, and the boys around them helped them out in that regard too," assistant coach Cameron Ciraldo said.

Possession - 56%
Completion Rate - 90% (38/42)
Post Contact Metres - 648
Tackle Breaks - 38
Missed Tackles - 30
Errors - 6
Penalties Conceded - 4

Verdict: There’s only 2 or 3 teams in the competition that have a chance of beating the Panthers and going on what they’ve shown lately, the Warriors ain’t one of them. The Panthers should continue on their merry way and barring a catastrophe of some sort, will win this week with ease. Panthers by 26.

Eels vs. Roosters @ Parramatta
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Eels

Eels
“I’m just disappointed. We didn’t come with any hunger, any want, any desire. Credit to the opposition, they wanted it more than us today. They were more desperate, it’s embarrassing. We were just beaten to the punch physically. Any option we took today was just a soft, cheap, short cut, cheap option and we didn’t want to take any tough options. Whether we disrespected ourselves or the opposition or we thought we could just go through the motions and get the job done. Every week is a tough week in the NRL and every week you have got to turn up because if you don’t you will get beat. It's a want and desire, which is your attitude. Once we got under pressure we thought we could pass our way out of pressure rather than run our way out of pressure," coach Brad Arthur said.

Possession - 52%
Completion Rate - 72% (32/44)
Post Contact Metres - 661
Tackle Breaks - 22
Missed Tackles - 21
Errors - 13
Penalties Conceded - 4

Roosters
"You can see it is so close, just the ruthless edge of some of the games we have been playing, about keeping the lead or putting the foot on the throat at different times. We have let that off and let the door open. You can see the makings of a team there that is going to dance at the top but we have got to be better than we are in those periods," coach Trent Robinson said.

Possession - 48%
Completion Rate - 73% (28/38)
Post Contact Metres - 427
Tackle Breaks - 28
Missed Tackles - 48
Errors - 11
Penalties Conceded - 8

Verdict: The Eels have been up and down this year and last week’s flogging at the hands of the Bulldogs was an example of one of their “down” days. Their display was quite frankly embarrassing and bewildering. The Roosters lost to the Storm but their effort was sound against quality opposition. Fully expect the Eels to bounce back for obvious reasons but I’ve got a feeling (a hope) that the Roosters will get their act together and get the win. Roosters by 8. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔

Raiders vs. Knights @ GIO
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Raiders

Raiders
"We probably didn't play with a little bit of luck tonight, a couple of things just didn't come off for us. That was a good win for Kev, a couple of players out and a couple of key players injured during the game and had to go off. It would have been exactly the same for us, it would have been a great win for us if a couple of things went the other way. They did a good job to hang in there and keep us away. Kevin is building a really good squad here now and he is showing that culture comes before strategy. That's why I love coaching my blokes, we have got a wonderful camaraderie and culture and give Kev a bit of time he is going to have the same. I can see that in them," coach Ricky Stuart said.

Possession - 50%
Completion Rate - 67% (25/37)
Post Contact Metres - 398
Tackle Breaks - 37
Missed Tackles - 32
Errors - 13
Penalties Conceded - 3

Knights
"They're a good footy team but we've let ourselves down in a number of areas here at home, and I can assure you that no-one sets out to disappoint our supporters, no-one. We want to put in performances that we can be proud of, but unfortunately, the reality of where we need to get to ... if you look at the opposition, we're envious of them. That's the organisation that we want to get to, and it's going to take time. It's not a quick fix," coach Adam O'Brien said.

Possession - 44%
Completion Rate - 72% (27/37)
Post Contact Metres - 484
Tackle Breaks - 30
Missed Tackles - 38
Errors - 11
Penalties Conceded - 6

Verdict: The Raiders have certainly hit their straps lately and weren’t that far away last week against the Broncos. The Knights aren’t showing much to be honest and don’t strike me as being good enough this weekend. Raiders by 8

Bulldogs vs. Tigers @ Parramatta
Probability @ 50-50
Ladder Position = Bulldogs
Bookies Favourite = Tigers

Bulldogs
"It's a good feeling. I just think they upped the ante tonight. It was refreshing. I was really happy. I'd like it to be the standard we set for ourselves and it becomes a confidence thing. It is all about starting really well and I thought we started pretty good today and although we had some discipline issues in the first half with some penalties, I thought we showed some toughness and we showed some try line D that I hadn't seen before where they worked and they solved the problems of try line D so well today," coach Mick Potter said.

Possession - 48%
Completion Rate - 80% (29/36)
Post Contact Metres - 681
Tackle Breaks - 21
Missed Tackles - 22
Errors - 9
Penalties Conceded - 11

Tigers
"Our priority area is to make sure we stay together. We're in a really difficult time as a club. Obviously we are not going to make decisions quickly, we are not going to become one of the top sides straight away. The reason why the decision [to sack Michael Maguire] was made last week was because things were not going great. I've spoken to the players and told them it's up to us coaches to coach as much as we can into them, to get training plans and make us feel like we're improving them little steps by little steps by little steps. There's no quick fix in this unfortunately," (interim) coach Brett Kimmorley said.

Possession - 44%
Completion Rate - 75% (25/33)
Post Contact Metres - 540
Tackle Breaks - 23
Missed Tackles - 50
Errors - 9
Penalties Conceded - 9

Verdict: Not sure about this one. Either side can win this as far as I’m concerned. For the Bulldogs, Burton and JAC seem to have clicked but unsure how long it will be before the other teams cotton on to their little plays. The Tigers have been doing sort of OK of late. Not good and not bad (basically average) and interesting to note their last win was against the Bulldogs in Round 11. I could possibly get this one completely wrong with flawed reasoning but based on their outstanding effort last week, I’m leaning towards the Bulldogs. Bulldogs by 8.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

When your team loses and you’re feeling down, just listen to the chorus of this one 😁

https://youtu.be/Lfvpy5cOrM0

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week. Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

P.S. Have a great trip Mr Ashford and don't forget to wear protection mate. Uh, I mean mozzie repellant. What did you think I meant? You're a cheeky one aren't you 🤓. Cheers buddy...

Are the Rabbits still trying to find the field they're supposed to be playing on tonight?

Cheers,
Mary

:O

Never saw that coming! To respond to your question Mary, yes, I think they must be!

We might have seen the other side of the story last night Esra. Young gun replacement wouldn't get a start with the Denman Devils on that performance. Must be hard calls to make on who to keep and who not to but some teams seem to get it right far more often than others.

you answered your own question Esra. Not much more to say.

they

Sounds good for when it's a close call Baggy.
This wasn't a close call and I know I've heard the words "and the ball travels forward" & "and so-and-so passes the ball forward" from the bunker on too many occasions to count already.
Was it Ray Warren or Gus who coined a phrase something like -
The Chamber of Infuriating Inconsistency.
They say they can't rule on it , but then they do .... and then they won't ... but then they do !!!!!

MGM

I agree with everything you have said in your post, the system we currently use for what the bunker can rule on is so inconsistent it's frustrating.
I watch a lot of the games each week and I am at the point where it's almost expected that there will be shitty decisions and errors and things missed or chosen to be missed especially when there are some of the big teams playing or when one side is dominating.

The bunker can and does at times rule on forward passes, as you say they are not supposed to but how often do we hear them intervene.

Tiger

I think I can answer the Eels question Steel, the BOYS got beaten by the Sharks, then went and beat the Storm, we lost to the Tigers, and then went on to beat the Panthers, we got mauled by the Dogs (the hurt to say) and then came out and beat the Roosters. It seems as though we are focusing on the big teams, and not putting in against the lessor teams. Mentally you couldn't fault us last night, but against the Doggies we never turned up, or even turned on. It was similar to the Cowboys game in Darwin, behind and never was able to flick the switch even though we went very close to being competitive towards the end.