Wests Tigers vs Cronulla Sharks – Thursday night – CommBank Stadium
The good news is that neither side is affected by Origin duties. The bad news is that the Tigers lost by one of the largest margins in NRL history last week, and they face a team that scored a half century against the Dragons. I don't think the Dragons are markedly stronger than the Tigers, but it's fair to say we have a recent and relevant form reference to draw upon. Also, the Sharks aren't likely to go easy - all year they've been beating up on the runts of the NRL litter. Sorry Benji. You're a good boy.
Verdict – Sharks by 30
Result – Sharks 36 defeated Tigers 12
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders – Friday night – WIN Stadium, Wollongong
The Dragons lose Ben Hunt for this game, but he doesn't really want to be there anywhere. The very promising but slightly flawed Tyrell Sloan has succumbed to a calf injury, with former Titan Paul Turner making his debut for the Dragons at fullback. For the Raiders, Big Red (Horsburgh) is unavailable while he shows the rugby league world he gets Origin. Otherwise, the team is much like the line-up that held off the Titans last week. The Raiders have a solid recent record over the Dragons, and when you couple that with the key detail that the Dragons have lost their last nine games when Ben Hunt hasn't played, everything points to Raiders victory. It's pretty wet around Wollongong right now but the weather should start to clear before Friday night. And here's a fun fact for you - the Dragons lost by 36 points last week, but that was good enough to move them up the ladder and out of last place. Pretty weird.
Verdict – Raiders by 4
Result – Raiders 36 defeated Dragons 26
Parramatta Eels vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – CommBank Stadium
The Eels will be without some pretty important cogs in their machinery on Saturday night, with Gutherson, Moses and Campbell-Gillard away on Origin camp and Dylan Brown unavailable for a few more rounds. Hopgood has been named at lock, but is the spare spare for QLD. I expect he will be released by Camp Maroon to play for his club. You could tip against the Eels based on those omissions, but I've found another reason too. The Warriors have managed to end up with four players in milestone games on Saturday night. It's game 200 for Shaun Johnson, game 200 for Dylan Walker, game 150 for Addin Fonua-Blake and game 100 for Wayde Egan. I was expecting them to bounce back after that disappointing game in the monsoon last week, but with all those milestones I'm feeling confident.
Verdict – Warriors by 7
Result – Warriors 46 defeated Eels 10
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Saturday night – Accor Stadium
Just six days prior to this game, the Bulldogs played at this ground as the home team. Technically they're the away team for this clash, but in name only. I doubt the location will help much, just as it didn't help when they lost 66-0 against a team that aren't as strong as the Bunnies. The Bunnies have been pulled down a notch by Origin representation, with Walker and Koloamatangi getting the call up alongside Murray and Cook. There's an advocate for the devil chattering away inside my head who wonders about some of these Origin line-up changes for NSW for game three. Said advocate has pointed out that NSW selector Greg Alexander is also the Deputy Chairman on the board of the Penrith Panthers. NSW have dropped Luai, kept Leniu fresh as 19th man, and given Yeo a bench role. Meanwhile they've brought in players from the Rabbitohs, Eels and Cowboys - teams that are likely to be competing with the Panthers at the business end of the NRL season. Enough with the sinful thoughts. NSW get Origin just like QLD does, and all that rubbish is just rubbish. Dean Hawkins joins Ilias in the halves for the Bunnies, while Toby Sexton gets straight off the plane from the Gold Coast and into the number 7 jersey for the Bulldogs. It's a short preparation, but I expect he will go well enough to make this a contest.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4
Result – Bulldogs 36 defeated Rabbitohs 32
Gold Coast Titans vs Redcliffe Dolphins – Sunday afternoon – CBus Super Stadium
The Dolphins strength is their forward pack, even without Kaufusi and Gilbert, so if they are going to win on Sunday they'll need to win that battle in the middle third of the park. That task gets a lot easier with the Titans missing the big three 'F's - Fa'asuamaleaui, Fotuaika and Fifita. AJ Brimson gets the call up too, so the fabulous Jayden Campbell gets a chance to show his wares. The Dolphins are missing their hammer from their attacking toolbox - that makes them a much easier team to contain, but I suspect Bennett can get his troops to grind out a win.
Verdict – Dolphins by 1
Result – Dolphins 23 defeated Titans 21
Wally Lewis - round nineteen selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning
- Tigers vs SHARKS
- Dragons vs RAIDERS
- Eels vs WARRIORS
- RABBITOHS vs Bulldogs
- TITANS vs Dolphins
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 18. Plenty of solid scores this round, but a shout out to Rabbitoh Chick and Princess who both scored perfect rounds. Rabbitoh Chick will be hard to catch if she keeps getting all the games right. Those just behind scored well too, so it's still pretty close at the top. Notably, a regular performer has been working her way through the pack after a poor start and is now in fourth place. Could we have two 'chicks' on the podium this season?
As always, if anyone notices any issues with the scoring just let me know.
Only five games this round as we edge toward the last Origin game. I'll have my previews and selections published on Wednesday (or sooner).
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by MGM on
Back in the Land of Oz after a wonderful trip to the wife's homeland!... (Not that any of you seemed to Give a Crap!)
I tried to draw some comments, ribbing or questions but you guys are a bit subdued this season!
Except you, Mary!... cograts on winning the A Game , by the way.
Submitted by The Thinker on
@MGM
I care :-)
Welcome home sir. I'm glad the trip went well.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Mary S on
Good to have you back MGM - so glad the trip was a success.
Now you have to adjust back to Aussie time! 😴
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Rick on
@ MGM
Hi mate I do "give a crap" lol always enjoy reading your comments actually this is probably my first upload for the year but it's just one of those crazy years for some reason🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️ just so much happening 👀nothing wrong but just amazing times we seem to live in now, I can't believe it is already July I normally would put the odd comment up I've been here for awhile now as regular tipsters would know but I don't normally comment much I suppose. Also whilst I am here how are you going Christine haven't heard from you in awhile all ok I hope?
Anyway hope everyone else is holding up ok 👍 thanks again Thinker. Cheers.
Submitted by Mary S on
Who works out the 'Byes' for the NRL season now we have 17 teams?
Out of interst, I did a little exercise after round 16, as the ladder was just not making any sense, and found the following - Ladder (without the Byes) after R16
Broncos = 22 (15 games)
Panthers = 18 (14 games)
Storm = 18 (14 games)
Rabbitohs= 18 (15 games)
Sharks = 16 (14 games)
Warriors = 16 (14 games)
Raiders = 16 (14 games)
Eels =16 (15 games)
Titans =12 (13 games)
Dolphins =14 (14 games)
Roosters =14 (14 games)
Sea Eagles=13 (14games)
Cowboys =14 (15 games)
Knights =11 (14 games)
Dragons =8 (14 games)
Bulldogs =10 (15 games)
Wests Tigers=6 (14 games)
I guess it all works out by end of season, but the figures (with byes included) certainly make some teams look a lot more competent than they are!
Cheers to all,
Mary
Submitted by a on
Yes cowboys to make the 8
Submitted by MGM on
Thanks for the kind words you guys...Rick , it's some kind of an honour that you saved your first upload of the year to give me a boost, so thanks mate!
Whilst away I've dropped off the pace by going a few longshots ... it really does help to be able to watch the games (which is why I love Kayo).
The last two rounds I was counting on Wayne Bennett to pull a rabbit out of his hat but turns out he had nothin' up his sleeve !!
Plus , when you're searching for an "underdog" to back I've learned not to take it too literally .... I see now that there's a good reason that Canterbury are called the Dogs (haha).
Okay , now it seems that I have a couple of "chicks" to chase ... aahhh memories!
Submitted by MGM on
P.S.
I forgot to mention how the Storm last week gave me a "Bellyache'"!
:-) :-) :-)
Submitted by MGM on
.... Turns out that Craig's team can be more hazardous than Manila tapwater !
Submitted by newbie from perth on
8512121505225182515145 …
There’s quite a number of sides having the bye this week and all of them with a guaranteed 2 competition points. So that leaves us with 5 games and first impressions are that we should all, in theory, get 5 from 5. But the footy gods might just have something to say about that, who knows what mood they’ll be in this week 😂.
The countdown is on … 7 days to go before Origin 3 so I’d better start thinking about the result and scoreline for the Boss’ 2 Low competition. Off the top of my head I think our friend “a” should win it. Being spot on in Origin 1 set him up perfectly 💪.
@ MGM - Yeah, agree with you mate, the comments seem to have almost dried up this year. Not sure why that is though. It might be due to the bulk of the members here having their teams performing poorly this year. Maybe they have nothing to crow about. Well that’s certainly true with my beloved Roosters anyway 😰. OK, let’s do this thing …
Bye: Broncos, Cowboys, Knights, Panthers, Roosters, Manly & Storm.
Tigers vs. Sharks @ CommBank
Probability @ 20-80
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks
Verdict: What can you say about the Tigers’ effort last week? Sorry but they were woeful. While the Sharks will be missing Hamlin-Uele, Tracey & Finucane, it won’t make much difference … Sharks by 20.
Dragons vs. Raiders @ WIN
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Raiders
Verdict: The Dragons are in disarray as far as I can see. The Raiders aren’t looking all that flash but they keep on getting the job done … Raiders by 12.
Eels vs. Warriors @ CommBank
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Warriors
Verdict: The Eels will be nice and refreshed coming off the bye. The Warriors really disappointed last week at home in a match I thought they’d win. Have they hit a bump in the road? I think there might be a slight class edge here … Eels by 4.
Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs @ Accor
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs
Verdict: The Rabbitohs have a much easier assignment this week against the Bulldogs who were another side that fell way below expectations. The Bulldogs will have their work cut out for them against a side with a lot of attacking flair … Rabbitohs by 12.
Titans vs. Dolphins @ Cbus
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Titans
Bookies Favourite = Titans
Verdict: Desperation stakes for both these sides this week. The Titans weren’t that far off the Raiders last week and the same could be said of the Dolphins with their effort against the Broncos. There may not be much in this one so basing my (possibly flawed) logic on relative class of previous opposition I might have to lean towards the … Dolphins by 4.
Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…
Long forgotten offering from the “talented” one of the four. Yeah Baby!
https://youtu.be/kWFehaQEMYI
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by MGM on
Newbie , you're on very shaky ground disrespecting John Lennon like that !
Submitted by newbie from perth on
@ MGM
Yeah, you could be right 🤣. The way I’ve always thought about them is:
John was the coolest one.
George was my favourite.
Paul was the most talented.
Ringo was … well, he was the drummer.
Obviously this just my opinion and others may disagree. To each their own I reckon. Thanks bud…
Submitted by Anonymous on
Hi thinker, islander here. Am unable to sign in for some reason. I'll just add my tips here.
Sharks
Raiders
Eels
Rabbits
Titans
Submitted by mark ashford on
Newbie & MGM
Well first to you MGM. Welcome back to the land of OZ. Our Cricketers are creating havoc in the Mother Country and 2 up in the ashes. Was it in the "spirit of the game" as the Poms claim or was it just good play. I'll let others with more knowledge than me decide, I'm not a cricket fan.
I believe you support the Blues and need to know why Luai was dropped. I don't like his antics much but he is a good player. As Pauline Hanson once said "please explain"
Newbie.
Been a bit since we've talked but I still enjoy your predictions. As for the fab 4, I loved them all...no favourites. They were all so talented in what they did. One of my favs was "fool on the hill" among many others. Hope you are well in WA my friend, how's that retirement in SE Asia looking these days?
Submitted by mark ashford on
Mary S, 'a' , my mate Steel, Tigerholic, BaggieGee, EsraStar,RocketRyan
and all my friends (can I call you that) and others I have left out from poor memory . I apologise for my absence. I've been through some health problems (all good now), A new lady in my life (best thing that ever happened to me), moved back to the Gold Coast and would like nothing better than to see us all posting on Thinkers site. Mary S has been a constant but c'mon it only takes a minute.
Submitted by Mary S on
Hi Mark,
I grew up listening to, then watching, cricket with an English Father, so learnt a few things during that time.
In the Ashes match last week, the Pommy player was silly enough to walk away from his crease before the play was complete (and the ball considered "dead"), therefore out.
It's a ploy England (& others) have tried in the past, but It certainly caused havoc this time around!!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by MGM on
Hi Mark ,
Thanks for the shoutout . Hope your ill-health wasn't too serious mate. Big changes for you lately ... best of luck with all that.
I'm not much of a cricket fan either , but as usual I agree with Mary when she says the Pommie (Bairstow is his name) was silly. One thing is for sure, he won't make that mistake again ! (haha) - apparently he tried to do the same thing to one of our guys in the previous innings but missed ... that'll Do me !
... Re Luai, his form this season hasn't been that impressive to earn him a spot but I begrudgingly understand that he's Cleary's left hand man... so when Cleary was out injured I wondered why he was still there in SOO2. Cody Walker has been in Dazzling form for a Long time now and, in my humble opinion, should have been in the team earlier.
Regarding the Fab Four, I have to declare a bias.
I am a huge fan!.... I was born in Liverpool, my older brother went to the same primary school as Paul McCartney, and I still remember the pain and outrage when my older sister and older brother went to the Beatles concert at Sydney Stadium and I had to stay home because I was "too young"!!
Newbie, I want you to look up a John Lennon song called "How do you sleep?" from his Imagine album. , The lyrics are aimed straight at Paul , but they remained like brothers.
IMO, Paul was ,and still is, a collaborator (musically).... John was a Groundbreaker like only a handful of others such as David Bowie, Prince,and the band Radiohead... artists that could reinvent themselves and their sound. , Lennon was the driving force behind Sgt Peppers that was a completely new look and feel for the Beatles.... It takes true genius (talent!) to pull off moves like that.... And then The White Album , and then Imagine and lastly Double Fantasy, another re-invention released just three weeks before his tragic death.
...Sorry to get carried away there,.. Calling Paul the most talented Beatle just really provoked me.
McCartney's just the luckiest one.
Submitted by The Thinker on
@Islander
Thanks for that. I will add those for you.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by newbie from perth on
@ Mr Ashford
Great to hear you’re back on deck, both here and health-wise. Also great to hear you’re still with your “lady friend”. It’s gotta be good if she makes you happy bro’ 😍.
Yeah, been some changes to my SE Asia retirement plans. This “thing” that we’ve been going through the last 3 years has thrown a spanner in the works. That “thing” I didn’t take for that other “thing” has turned everything pear-shaped basically. The countries that I was most interested in wouldn’t let me in because I didn’t have the “thing” plus a couple of them recently made vaping illegal. The world has changed in the last 3 years and not for the better. If anything it’s gotten worse as far as freedom and letting people do their own thing goes but that's just my opinion and others may not have any problems with life at the moment. If so, I'm happy for them.
I’m thinking it may be easier to deal with the “devil I know” and stay in Australia. Mind you, our gooberment is just as bad, if not worse on some (not all) things, as everywhere else. Still 3-4 years away from retiring (unless I win Lotto 🤣) so maybe things might change but not holding out much hope to be honest. I’ll probably end up buying a little cottage (and maybe a couple of acres) down south and just chillin’ out until the Reaper pays a visit. Hopefully that’ll be at least 30 years 😉. Stay well mate. Cheers.
@ MGM
No worries mate, as I’ve mentioned before, “taste is subjective” (sitting here at my desk at work currently listening to “Sweet Love” by Anita Baker) and I for one think that’s a good thing. God forbid we all like and think the same. What a dreary world it would be if we did eh? Yeah, you make valid points regarding Lennon and I agree with what you said. My little comment is just the “easy way” that I use to generalise.
Both Paul and John were talented IMO and it’s a shame that John was taken from us so early 😢. Who knows what he could’ve put out in the last 40 years.
Not that is has anything to do with anything, but for those reading this and wondering who actually wrote the various Beatles’ songs (seeing as they were all attributed to Lennon/McCartney), the general consensus is that whoever sang the song was the one who actually wrote it. Strange song writing agreement those 2 lads had. Could be wrong but it makes sense to me. Anyway, stay well champ.
Countdown ... 6 days to go ...
Submitted by ScottySeahawk on
Hey @thinker , i bloody forgot to add my tips last night!
For remaining games - Raiders, Warriors, Bunnies & Dolphins.
Submitted by MGM on
@Newbie
Of course there's no problem or hard feelings my friend, just a totally different perspective.
I admired J.L. and still clearly remember where I was and how I felt when I heard the news of his senseless murder. But at the end of the day, all that doesn't really affect our more mediocre lives much, does it.
Sorry to hear that your plans of spending your twilight years in a warmer climate aren't likely to happen. Which part of SEA did you have your eye on?
Submitted by Mary S on
If you didn't watch the Dragons/Raiders match, you would have missed the Raiders 'take' on Bairstow's dismissal (cricket).
https://www.nrl.com/news/2023/07/07/dont-leave-your-crease-elliott/
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by The Thinker on
@ScottySeahawk
I'll add those tips for you.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by ScottySeahawk on
Thank you, kind sir.
Submitted by MGM on
And Grant Atkins wins the match for the Dolphins !
Submitted by Steel Panther on
I thought it was Erin Clark that won it for the Dolphins?
Submitted by tigerholic on
Evening All
Firstly I too apologise for my absence in recent weeks. Sometimes life gets complicated and can smother your motivation, I have been a little off and I am thinking it is connected to my previous PTSD issues from 2019.
It takes a lot to keep strong and in my line of work it sometimes gets difficult to separate work from home especially when I do a lot of extra shifts. I am leaning towards a visit to my Doctor and then a Psych to help me through.
Mark, thank-you for the reminder to keep spreading the love here on the Thinkers site, I do love being a regular.
I am sorry to hear that you had been unwell, very happy to hear that you are on the mend.
Now that you have moved to the GC, we might even have the opportunity to get to the footy together.
I have been very disappointed again this year with the Tigers miserable on field results and then the Blues, the shit just gets deeper.
The Tigers apparently had their eye on two brothers from Manly, looks like Wayne Bennet has blown that opportunity for us, how often do the good teams get the rub of the green and the selection of the best players.
The NRL needs to introduce a draft system that would allow the bottom teams the chance to pick up some great buys.
Anyway, that's my life for now.
Tiger
Submitted by MGM on
@Steely,
Don't know how closely you've looked at the footage, but I've had to keep replaying it a dozen times only to conclude that there was a split second second in it either way.
SINCE WHEN are referees THAT pedantic in Golden Point goal line decisions and SINCE F#(k#N WHEN do they refuse to go to the bunker for adjudication?!... and SINCE F# WHEN does the bunker NOT stick it's BIG F#N Nose in anyway ??!
Try being THAT pedantic refereeing a State of Origin bit of argy bargy or border line match deciding call Atkins you wanker!
Submitted by MGM on
@Tigerholic
Sorry Tiger, I just realized that my post immediately followed your much more serious comments without acknowledging them.
I'm sorry to hear that you're struggling and want to encourage you to hold your loved ones close and drink in any support and love that is being given or offered.
Your family and friends are the ones that really matter and their love and support is where you will find strength and peace.
I know that's how I've gotten through a couple of really tough times in my life and they are the ones who are still by my side today.
Of course, professional help is a great idea also so don't lean, don't hesitate, just grab it with both hands and if you're not feelin' it then find another ... there has to be chemistry and a feeling that you can pick up what they're putting down, if you know what I mean.