Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Sunday afternoon – Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

Our very first game of the year takes place in a North American desert, but I caught some of the Superbowl and the facilities look pretty good. I suspect these two teams get things underway because the NRL hoped Hugh Jackman and Russell Crowe would be on hand for the kick-off. I'm pretty sure Rusty can't make it, but Hugh could still make an appearance. Jason Saab made the bold declaration that the best four NRL teams are in Vegas on Sunday - a bold declaration indeed given neither of these sides made the top eight last year. Perhaps the bright lights of American media got the better of him, or perhaps he's taking lessons from former President Trump - the truth is whatever you say it is. The Sea Eagles have impressed during the trials. I'm not the only one to point out that Manly are a very different animal when Tom Trbojevic is on the field. He seems fit and well. The pairing of Cherry-Evans with Brooks in the halves could be a surprise packet this season - Brooks will likely appreciate having an elder statesman calling most of the shots. The Bunnies have named the best centre in the NRL on Sunday, but he'll be playing at fullback. With Wighton suspended and Graham injured the centre pairing of Tass and Kennar will likely be targeted. Note the slightly smaller dimensions of this field (compared with regular NRL venues). With less room to move, scoring points could be harder than typical. Something of an upset here, but it's how I roll.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 7

Result – Sea Eagles 36 defeated Rabbitohs 24

Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos – Sunday afternoon – Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

I'll admit it. When Ezra Mam scored his third try in ten minutes in the 2023 NRL grand final I thought they were home. So did Thinker Junior, and three of his friends, who departed Thinker Manor and headed over to the rooftop party at the Broncos to celebrate. Ah rugby league, you unpredictable devil. The Broncos that went so close last year haven't recruited any big name players from elsewhere for this season, rather they are backing their mostly young squad to keep improving. They have lost some quality in Farnworth and Flegler, but this is an exciting squad. The Broncos won the pre-season challenge this year with a bunch of kids, so they have depth in the roster. The move of Cobbo into the centre is an interesting one. I certainly hope it works, because Deine Mariner should be playing first grade rugby league. As for the Chooks, they'll be missing Waerea-Hargreaves and Dominic Young on Sunday, but they're a strong side and plenty expect them to go close again in 2024. The Chooks will be hoping to extend the playing minutes of Spencer Leniu, but that's hardly going to happen overnight. Given that, the Broncos might wear the Chooks down through the 80 minutes. Mam and Walsh will be hard to contain through the middle if that happens.

Verdict – Broncos by 8

Result – Roosters 20 defeated Broncos 10

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders – Thursday night – McDonald Jones Stadium

These sides last met in week one of the finals at this very venue, with the Knights prevailing in the 89th minute of an extra-time ripper. Quite a few changes since then, with the Knights losing Dominic Young, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Kurt Mann from the 2023 squad. The Raiders have lost Jack Wighton, but will also be without the suspended Corey Horsburgh and Sebastian Kris. The Raiders will have some new talent on show, which is likely to include Ethan Strange who is a promising talent. In recent years the Raiders have often won their round one game but their record over the Knights is rather poor. At the back end of last season, the Knights won their last six games at home, and I'll be tipping them to do the same in front of what will likely be a hefty crowd by Thursday night standards.

Verdict – Knights by 8

Result – Raiders 28 defeated Knights 12

New Zealand Warriors vs Cronulla Sharks – Friday night – Go Media Stadium

The Sharks almost always lose in round one of the season - 9 of the last 10 in fact. Given that alarming statistic, and given they have to travel to New Zealand and play a team that have won their last five in a row at home, it's hard to tip against the Warriors here. To make matters worse, I'm hearing suggestions Nicho Hynes isn't as likely to play in round one as the Sharks are letting on. Note that Roger Tuivasa-Sheck makes his return to the game he prefers - it's always nice to welcome home a Dally M medal winner.

Verdict – Warriors by 7

Result – Sharks 16 defeated Warriors 12

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers – Friday night – AAMI Park

While the Sharks can't win a round one game it seems like the Storm can't lose one. Coach Craig Bellamy is yet to lose a round one game, in a streak that stretches back 20 years. That's a proper streak. The streak gets tested here, taking on a team that have now won 3 premierships in a row. That's a proper streak too. Notably, the Panthers lost in round one last season backing up from a World Club Challenge loss. They're doing that again this year, but this year they played the WCC match on the other side of the world. Note that the Storm have done some travelling of their own, playing a trial game in Fiji. A much shorter flight of course. Here's a statistic that will surprise a few - the Panthers have just one victory from their last 8 matches at AAMI Park. For a team that haven't done a lot of losing in recent years that's quite the statistic. I'm with the home side here, who will be keen to put on a show before the city of Melbourne gets all giddy and stupid for that other football code. And, more than anything, I'm hoping for a safe return to football for Ryan Papenhuyzen. Football can be a cruel game, but not that cruel. Please.

Verdict – Storm by 2

Result – Storm 8 defeated Panthers 0

Parramatta Eels vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Saturday afternoon – CommBank Stadium

The Eels are the shortest favourites to win in round one. Now full disclosure, I've been fishing in the sun in the tropics for two days, so there's some chance I've fried my brain, but I'm giving the Bulldogs a sneaky chance in this. Not just a sneaky chance...I'm actually tipping them. The Dogs have done an extraordinary job to update their roster in super quick time. It's a lot of changes and a lot of moving parts to get right, but they can win this. Ex-Panthers Burton, Kikau, Crichton and Salmon are all in the starting thirteen, so they might come together as a unit quicker than expected. 

Verdict – Bulldogs by 2

Result – Panthers 26 defeated Bulldogs 8

Gold Coast Titans vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday night – CBus Super Stadium

The trouble with this split round is trying to work out who will be available to play. There's a lot of guessing going on here. One of my guesses is that David Fifita will be fit to play by Saturday week. If he doesn't, then this contest evens up considerably. Jayden Campbell is highly unlikely, and AJ Brimson has to pass concussion protocols. The Dragons have some issues of their own, with Liddle and Lawrie battling injuries. It seems they are more likely to play than not, but who knows? What I do know is that the Titans have a solid recent record against the Dragons, and are almost always a better side at home. Note that both clubs have shiny new high profile coaches this year...cranky Des and cranky Shane. I'm with cranky Des.

Verdict – Titans by 4

Result – Dragons 28 defeated Titans 4

Redcliffe Dolphins vs North Queensland Cowboys – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium

A Queensland derby to get things underway at the spiritual home of rugby league in Brisbane. Unusual that it doesn't involve the Broncos, but I'm expecting a decent turn-out through the gates regardless. Both sides have lost key forwards to season-ending injuries before the season even started. Yuck. The Dolphins knocked off the Roosters in their NRL debut last season, and I think they can upset their favoured rivals here too. Flegler and Farnworth are quality additions, and Bennett will have them primed as always. The Cowboys took a while to get warm last season, and that's been the case more often than not in recent years.

Verdict – Dolphins by 2

Result – Cowboys 43 defeated Dolphins 18

Wally Lewis - round one selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

• Sea Eagles vs RABBITOHS
• Roosters vs BRONCOS
• KNIGHTS vs Raiders
• WARRIORS vs Sharks
• Storm vs PANTHERS
• EELS vs Bulldogs
• TITANS vs Dragons
• Dolphins vs COWBOYS