Round eight selections

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers - Friday night – ANZ Stadium

It's fair to assume that conditions underfoot will be difficult on Friday night. Under those circumstances you want a pack full of hard-nosed big boppers weathered by years of NRL exposure. You want guys that can tuck the ball under the arm and work their way up the middle of the paddock. You want ball security. That sounds like the Bulldogs pack to me, with or without their captain - Tolman and Eastwood come to mind. The Tigers have some big cattle coming through their system, but they are light on for experience - especially with Keith Galloway out of action.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 4

Result - Tigers 38 defeated Bulldogs 14

New Zealand Warriors vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday lunchtime – Mt Smart Stadium

The Kiwis often put it all together for this round. No doubt they like to remind us that 40% of the ANZAC acronym belongs to them, but it's also a good time to put their hands up in front of the national selectors. Sam Rapira is back and I always think the Warriors are a better team when he's there. Dave Taylor is out for the Titans and you can't replace his size unless you have an elephant on your roster. That said, Nate Myles is the bellweather for the Titans - if he plays the Titans can win. Early indications are that he won't get there. The first of a string of ANZAC Day games this round - it will be interesting to see how the Kiwis mark the occasion.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result - Titans 32 defeated Warriors 28

Newcastle Knights vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday afternoon – Hunter Stadium

There's a lot of football on Saturday, but this game could end up being the best of a very good bunch. The Cowboys are speaking of revenge, but why talk about it? Now the Knights know what's coming. The Knights see themselves as a community team, and they will rally given what we've seen from mother nature in the Hunter region this week. I'm compelled to tip them, even though the Cowboys have been playing better footy. The Cowboys are warm favourites and I expect the weight of money will come for them - if I can find $2.60 for the Knights I'm prepared to ask Ms Thinker for a loan and stick her money where my mouth is. Gamble responsibly...and thank your partner while you're at it.

Verdict – Knights by 2

Result - Cowboys 26 defeated Knights 24

Sydney Roosters vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday afternoon – Allianz Stadium

If the Knights/Cowboys game doesn't deliver (and I think it will) then the 4pm game almost certainly will. This is your 'traditional' ANZAC clash and these sides turn up to play it. That both sides are in good form just adds to the anticipation. The Dragons have a defensive line that simply doesn't quit and they'll head into Saturday full of confidence and self-belief. The Roosters have lost two in a row but those two games were, I think, the two highest quality games we've seen this season. The injury to Waerea-Hargreaves has swung me here. Sam Moa returns but the Dragons pack has a slight edge (and I'll admit it, at the start of this season I didn't think I would ever say that the Dragons pack had an edge over anyone). The bookies don't give the Dragons much hope at all but I think that water-tight defense can frustrate their opponents out of the game. Back the 'total score unders' - it's been quite the money-spinner in Dragons games this season and I can't see any reason to stop backing it yet.

Verdict – Dragons by 2

Result - Dragons 14 defeated Roosters 12

Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday night – AAMI Park

First plays last. Oddly enough, the only game the Sea Eagles have won this year...they beat the Storm. I thought the Storm were pretty unlucky to lose that game but they won't be letting luck determine the outcome on Saturday night. Keiran Foran comes back, but Jamie Lyon comes back out - the Sea Eagles seem to have run out of luck altogether. All those Kiwis in the Storm forward pack will be keen to make a statement this weekend. I have an image in my head of a final score of Storm 32 - Sea Eagles 4. Let's see if I'm close.

Verdict – Storm by 28

Result - Sea Eagles 12 defeated Storm 10

Brisbane Broncos vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday night – Suncorp Stadium

It's rare to see one player lose a game of football for a team, but one player went very close to achieving just that when the Broncos went down narrowly to the Dragons last weekend. I try to focus on the positives rather than the negatives, so I won't name and shame him here. With the injury to Justin Hodges he gets a chance to atone, and I hope he does. I keep thinking this is a danger game for the Broncos, but my uncanny record of getting the Broncos results wrong is hanging over my head. I've got them right just once this season - when they beat the Warriors by 8 points (and I even got the margin right). I'll tip that margin again. That Broncos pack looks too good to me and I think they'll win on the back of that platform. Keep an eye on Josh McGuire in this game - he's likely to be best on ground.

Verdict – Broncos by 8

Result - Broncos 28 defeated Eels 16

Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks – Sunday afternoon – Pepper Stadium

Paul Gallen is back this weekend, not that he was needed on Monday night. The Sharks haven't lost a game for three weeks, and in that time they've beaten two of the heavyweights in the Rabbits and the Roosters. During the same period the only team the Panthers have beaten are the Sea Eagles. To get a gauge on how far the Panthers have fallen have a look at their game against the Titans last week. Just a few weeks earlier the Panthers beat the Titans 40-0. For reasons that baffle me the bookmakers can't split these sides, but I can. The Sharks won't win by much, but they'll win.

Verdict – Sharks by 6

Result - Panthers 26 defeated Sharks 18

South Sydney Rabbitohs  vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – Barlow Park

Barlow Park is in Cairns for those that are curious, and the Rabbitohs will appreciate the change of scenery given they spent much of their round seven loss underwater. Clearly the Bunnies are missing Adam Reynolds and his kicking game but what remains of that very talented backline should enjoy the drier and warmer conditions in what is a rare daytime game in North Queensland. The Bunnies have won just one game in their last four outings...and that was by a single point in a very controversial game. They're better than that. Surely they're better than that.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 10

Result - Raiders 30 defeated Rabbitohs 22

Wally Lewis - round eight selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • BULLDOGS vs Tigers
  • WARRIORS vs Titans
  • Knights vs COWBOYS
  • ROOSTERS vs Dragons
  • STORM vs Sea Eagles
  • BRONCOS vs Eels
  • Panthers vs SHARKS
  • RABBITOHS vs Raiders

William Hill betting promotion - Round Eight

  • Sydney Roosters to beat St George Illawarra Dragons - $2.00 (maximum bet at these odds is $50)

Here's the link (gamble responsibly):

http://partners.affiliatesunited.com.au/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_10302b_1152

Comments

Steel Panther's picture

I've taken the Dogs three times in the last four weeks for zero return. Typical they win the week I don't pick them. What is it about Friday nights....?? They hardly showed any Anzac spirit last night and the 6 and 7 are a real concern. Was Hodgkinson even playing?

a's picture

I don't even know

Coach Potato's picture

JR. The Warriors. Bet you want to go to the YouTube files but cant.

Johnny Ray's picture

Crap ! First Warriors now Knights ! I give up ! Forget Dragons Roosters game, anybody wants me this ANZAC day I'll be at my local RSA feeding jukebox and blasting this song out of speakers ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhdFe3evXpk :-(

a's picture

Cowboys held on to beat the Knights we are on form now

Coach Potato's picture

Thinker I'm with you to break the duck by sundown.

Coach Potato's picture

Meant to be the traditional tough game of the day. I wondered what the our soldiers would have said about a bit of hail. Friggin nanny state's filtered it's way into the NRL

a's picture

Roosters and Dragons game it is hailing there

Coach Potato's picture

The suns out. What the f are we waiting for?

Coach Potato's picture

This isn't cricket. We dont need to wait til the pitch dries out.

Coach Potato's picture

You're an imbocile Archer. F'n gettum on. If they need to come off again, cross that bridge then - not now

a's picture

That was f ridiculous what they did in the Roosters vs Dragons games

Coach Potato's picture

Crap thinker. I'm not unhappy I've got Manly this one

Coach Potato's picture

..as in Holy Crap. Not as in you're crap. No, actually you are.

Coach Potato's picture

..as it takes crap to know crap. I'm crap

a's picture

That was a very brave tip Coach

Coach Potato's picture

Go Sea Slugs !!!!!

a's picture

Well done coach you were the only 1 I believe that tipped Manly

Coach Potato's picture

.. and only a couple who had Titans. Now to get the Raiders home tomorrow.

a's picture

Well I did tip Rabbitohs

Coach Potato's picture

Horrible tipping from us all aside, what is wrong with playing a Friday night game, 5 games on Saturday, and another 2 on Sunday every week?

I have a feel people would love it. The argument about Foxtel losing ratings through the Saturday is hogwash. What does ratings have to do with Foxtel? Once you've signed up with them as a monthly subscriber, as if they give a crap which channel you watch. As for the missus argument, well they get a whole day of the week back dont they?

On that subject, I envisage the great ANZAC day type schedule would also see the end of Monday nights. Not only a waste of time for fans who want the week done and dusted by Sunday sundown, but a huge contributor to teams' poor preparation for the next week, and this is what I believe is a major factor in the increase in a range of injuries. An accumulation over time of not enough turn around times, that, and the adding of too much muscle to skeletons whose bones are not increasing in size- something has to give sometime, somewhere but Monday's arent helping.

So for what it's worth I say, "Piss Monday nights off" and "give us something like yesterday every week" (please)

It would even give The-Thinker (not to mention all tipping comp tippers out there) an extra day's thought, and I don't think there'd be any opposition to that.

a's picture

Yes tipping ishard

Tailspin's picture

hey a, good to see the cowboys get up with 2 of their good players injured early in the game, another good win for the Titans, how the ladder is changing.

Coach Potato's picture

Sharks going for 4 in a row. Has the world gone crazy?

a's picture

Yes it was ver y good Tailspin we might be the side to beat in the upcoming rounds

Johnny Ray's picture

1 from 7 in my picks this week. All I've got to say is Raiders better beat Rabbitohs up in Cairns or I am really Wollongong now ! :-(

a's picture

Well I am 2 from 7

Declan_S's picture

This might only be my 3rd year of following rugby league, but I wouldn't hesitate from placing a large bet on a 'will 2015 be the closest competition ever' betting market if such thing existed

Johnny Ray's picture

YEAH !!! EAT REDFERN RABBITOHS ! RAIDERS !!! ;- D

a's picture

Yes it is a close compertition I have 2 weeks to figure out a stagerty

Johnny Ray's picture

Also the Australian Kangaroo's team list has just been announced for next week clash against four nation champions New Zealand. In the spirit of Anazc Day Weekend and as a fellow Kiwi, here is team list :

1. Billy Slater (Melbourne Storm)
2. Alex Johnston (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
3. Will Chambers (Melbourne Storm)
4. Greg Inglis (Melbourne Storm)
5. Josh Dugan (St George Illawarra Dragons)
6. Jonathon Thurston (North Queensland Cowboys)
7. Cooper Cronk (Melbourne Storm)
8. Matt Scott (North Queensland Cowboys)
9. Cameron Smith (c) (Melbourne Storm)
10. Aaron Woods (Wests Tigers)
11. Greg Bird (Gold Coast Titans)
12. Sam Thaiday (Brisbane Broncos)
13. Corey Parker (Brisbane Broncos)

Interchange:

14. Luke Lewis (Cronulla Sutherland Sharks)
15. Trent Merrin (St George Illawarra Dragons)
16. Nate Myles (Gold Coast Titans)
17. James Tamou (North Queensland Cowboys)

18th man: Daly Cherry Evans (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles)

Also a part of the squad: Michael Jennings (Sydney Roosters), Josh Papalli (Canberra Raiders)

Coach Potato's picture

Ruck area is far too much in the attacking teams favour. Its a big evener. I'm surprised we havent seen this kind of year before. Playing the ball on your 20m line, doing nothing but run from dummy half, and you get to play the last near the opposition quarter, its not how the game was meant to be. You can make too much yardage, too easily. One out stuff you should struggle to make 40m in a set, not 60m on your ear.

What's the answer though.
I know none of this will happen but there needs to be something to stop any tom dick and harry making yards at will.
How about
A/ reduce the 10m back to maybe 8m?
B/ reduce the tackles down to 5?
C/ bring back markers being able to rake the ball back? (I know people will laugh at that one, but recall how a marker just 'feigning' to strike for the ball, would instrantly see a carefully and deliberate play the ball. Benny Elias was brilliant at slowing things down, not to mention the odd rake back success.
D/ reduce player stamina by overhauling the interchange system. What about a baseball style interchange where if you are subbed off, you go to the back of the interchange queue, and can't return until all other reserves have had their turn on the field. That would stop a player being able to run on 3 times in a half, force coaches to use sub's more wisely, players are on the field longer, and things like play the balls become naturally a bit slower.

christine 's picture

even though i'm a souths member I can say I won't be tipping them any time soon .

Baggy_Gee's picture

Well lets correct the major issues with the NRL, mainly attendance. The AFL plays a Friday night game and then the rest mostly over the Sat/Sunday afternoons and gets great attendance. It will encourage the suburban grounds, hopefully pump a bit of money into teams like the Tigers. That allows for a revamp of Leicheart and a few other grounds and makes it a more family orientated atmosphere. Also instead of walking out of Suncorp at ten last night and getting home after midnight, games could be played with children being able to see their team and still be home at a reasonable time. Just a rather large bugbear of mine.

christine 's picture

a strategy don't take 2 weeks to come up with one .

Johnny Ray's picture

@ Baggy Gee. - I agree with you mate that when you can't take your kids to game then is something wrong with Rugby League in general. Still we all know why it's like this as it's all about TV schedule and that when almost all your sixteen teams play in same time zone you're not given a lot of options when you want to play late game. That's why it's important that Adelaide and Perth are two places that get a League team in next expansion. It would allow alot of game days across the board and be essentially better for everybody. Not only that but also Perth Pirates is awesome as Wollongong sounding name for team ! ;-D

christine 's picture

coach I believe after this weeks round that puts you on top of the ladder , well done coach

Coach Potato's picture

Looks like I'm tied again with Declan. 4 out of 8 was definitely a pass mark. 16 players with 3 or less including 11 with 2s.

I've noticed something about results which has helped big time this week. Sorry I'm not sharing my research this time.

a's picture

I will come up with a stagerty very quickly here

Coach Potato's picture

Horrible tackle on Panther Latimore. Was reckless more than anything but it ended up in a worse position than Alex McKinnon's (so surprised he got up). NRL, has the storm passed and ready to go soft again? No it wasn't GI or JT getting tackled, so maybe only 2-3 weeks? Seriously, it shouldn't get less than 8-10

christine 's picture

i'm surprised that they even let Latimore walk off the field , they really shouldn't have

christine 's picture

I give credit to Penrith for there Anzac jersey there's was the best of all of them in my opinion

christine 's picture

a I will leave the strategy up to you , I will be interested to see what you come up with

a's picture

I will be trying it in other sports this weekend

Coach Potato's picture

If I was only 4 points off the lead, with still 18 rounds to go, I wouldn't be too worried about how I was tipping.

a's picture

Okay than coach and thinker when are you going to update the tipping ladder

The Thinker's picture

Morning everyone,

An even tougher round than usual - a couple of tipsters got half the games right (Coach, Declan...there may have been some others - apologies if I've forgotten you).

The updated tipping ladder should start flushing through the system shortly.

All the best

Coach Potato's picture

Shanghai and Chooks also 4.

My tips for the no NRL weekend

(More upsets)
ANZAC test .... New Zealand
City v Country ..... City
FA Cup.......Aston Villa

Are we going to get your previews of the first two Thinker? (You'll need something to keep the site hits going)

Coach Potato's picture

'a' I'm no relation to the Thinker, electronic or otherwise

Pages

The latest in NRL news