Wests Tigers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs - Friday night – ANZ Stadium
Oddly enough the Tigers pay a heftier price during the Origin period than the defending premiers. The Bunnies lose their captain (Inglis) and he's hard to replace, but the Tigers are without their captain (Farah) and their best forward (Woods). These sides met back in round three, and the Bunnies triumphed with a fairly definitive four tries to one display. In that game Aaron Woods ran for 220 odd metres and Robbie Farah made 56 tackles. Those are tough shoes and numbers to fill. It's not all cut and dried though, as the Bunnies are also missing Luke and Reynolds - that's three quarters of the round three spine filled by replacements. Note the home ground location too - a cold wet night at Campbelltown and you could entertain an upset. At ANZ the red and green are the team with more sheen.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 10
Result - Tigers 34 defeated Rabbitohs 6
New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – Mt Smart Stadium
I don't mind backing the Roosters over the ditch - given that the tricolours have almost as many Kiwis in their 17 as the Warriors. Their performance against the Sharks was flat and four of their best are in Origin camp but I think they can bounce back with a win few will see coming. I have a huge wrap on their missing backrowers (Guerra and Cordnor) but they still boast a strong pack and some big boppers on the bench to share the load. Importantly the Warriors are without two of their most reliable forwards in Lilyman and Hoffman - the onus is on those that remain to stand up and keep on standing up. If they do the Warriors win this in a walk, but it's the Red, White and Bluesters for me. Hoping the Warriors still have jet lag after returning home from that away game on Neptune last weekend.
Verdict – Roosters by 4
Result - Roosters 25 defeated Warriors 21
Gold Coast Titans vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – CBus Super Stadium
If you told Dave Taylor he wouldn't be available for this game he would assume Big Mal had given him yet another chance at Origin level. Alas no...even with Myles and Bird unavailable it's the Tweed Heads Seagulls for Big Dave. At least the Star Buffet is good value. Even Dave Taylor couldn't eat all the Bulldogs players unavailable on the weekend - Morris, Morris, Graham, Hodkinson, Klemmer and Jackson. Despite all those missing in action I'm tipping the Doggies here - they have still pulled together a pretty decent seventeen and that halves combination of Reynolds and Mbye worked last weekend against the Dragons. That's good enough here.
Verdict – Bulldogs by 2
Result - Titans 28 defeated Bulldogs 14
Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels – Monday night – AAMI Park
Parramatta were mostly good against the Cowboys - mostly good. If they repeat that performance they'll win this time, because there is no way known the Storm can score 30 points in 11 minutes without their big three. The Eels are near enough to full-strength (minus Hopoate) and have no excuse for dropping their hands this time. Even though there is talent coming through at the Storm they are very young and they need their big guns to steer them around. The Storm will try and win this game slowly and they'll compete, but I expect the Eels to pull away when it matters. Given the number of times in recent weeks the Eels have turned winning situations into losing ones I can't believe I'm about to say this - I'm pretty confident.
Verdict – Eels by 8
Result - Eels 26 defeated Storm 22
Wally Lewis - round fourteen selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- Tigers vs RABBITOHS
- WARRIORS vs Roosters
- Titans vs BULLDOGS
- Storm vs EELS
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Hmmm...I've tipped four away teams this round (technically). Hmmm...
Submitted by chooks on
I don't know if I can pick my beloved Roosters after Sunday...Hmmmm
Submitted by Coach Potato on
After the biggest comebacks, how did the shattered teams go?
In 98 after Cowboys ran down Penrith from 26-0 at halftime, Panthers couldn't lift the next week. In fact they They lost their next 4.
After Panthers ran down Tigers in 2000, 31-8 down with 20 minutes to go, Tigers also could not lift the next week. They lost their next 2.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Coach's Club Exotica
Souths. But take Mitchell Moses to score anytime @$4.75
Warriors. Matulino try anytime @$6.50
Gold Coast. Kierran Mosely try anytime @$7.25
Melbourne. But Corey Norman try time anytime @$4.25 . No Origin call-up, No Origin opponents, and a better price than last week!
So yes I'm fast becoming a try anytime fan. Take these ones individually and any one winner will get you a profit on the four.
Then put a little on this four leg multi currently paying a whopping $951/1
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Been a month now since Bird, Falloon, Taylor, Vickery, and Faifai Loa's court case started (May 8).
NRL, any chance of posting some updates on your website? Hmmm. Didn't think so.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Anyone who thinks that corruption in the game died with Ryan Tandy (RIP) and the Wolfman's $5 multi is blindly naive.
Anyone who thinks video and on-field refs make weekly absurd rulings, but aren't trying to influence the result of the game is blindly naive.
Anyone who thinks teams only win from impossible positions, that opposition teams wont and dont throw games from impossible positions is blindly naive.
Where there is gambling in sport, there is corruption. Any sport you can think of on Earth that can be gambled upon, either human or animal, there is corruption. Try and name a major sport that isn't. Anyone who thinks the NRL must be the great exception is blindly naive.
Note, I'm not making any direct accusations or assumptions. But what I am saying is based on sport around the world, it would be blindly naive to think NRL is corruption free. We are seeing such strange twists in games that you never would see before sports betting came in.
My little side bets dont make these thoughts hypocritical Eg. Just because we all know the racing industry is racked with corruption, doesn't mean you dont enjoy a little flutter on a Saturday does it?
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
I only got $450 for those 4 guys.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
.... How frequently are we seeing wingers defending 15m in from touch, winning the game for the other team? Its not in anyone's coaches manual.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
That is what hurts so much about the week end. they scored through our usually good center defence and not out wide. But your right about weird winger defence, all the points in the under 20's between the Bronco,s and Eels was easy runs around a misplaced winger.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
You mean that's all the stingy TAB would offer?
Submitted by Tailspin on
Hey everyone.
I'm going Bunnies by 24
Warriors by 2
Dogs by 6
Eels by 14
QLD by 8
Have a good one :)
Submitted by mark ashford on
Hi Coach
As much as I hate to admit it I think you're 100%right. Over the last few years these seemingly impossible come from behind wins are getting more and more common.
In this day of elite sportsmen how can you be so good in the first half and so bad in the second.
I remember watching my Broncos last year or was it the year before running up 20 odd point leads in the first half against the Sharks and the Eels (both games they were supposed to win) only to lose the games posting zilch in the second half. How can that happen?
If Coach is right and corruption runs that deep is there any point in studying form etc and trying to win a $ or even this fun comp?
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
I think that while we know that there is corruption within and a deep seated mistrust from without of the NRL, if we allow it to distract us from actually enjoying the game.
It is naive to think that it doesn't happen, remembering last year against Melbourne, about this time of the season, where the second ref kept calling forward passes against us. When a player is running towards you all passes will look forward. And the Eels lost badly.
To address the problem facing the game, we need a complete new group heading up the NRL as a whole, New judiciary team, and new ref's head ref, drawn from the wider public. This won't guarantee the problem to be solved but it will "strike down with great fury!" the old boys network and the blooding of new board members to the gravy train that is the current administration.
The issue with this in general, the people who would step up for these jobs are dedicated supporters like you and I, who even if we are the cleanest of clean, will be accused in the media and by other clubs as favouring our BOYS, when they get in trouble. While action speak louder than words, there would be incredible friction during the transition and for the first term afterwards.
Submitted by Declan_S on
I wouldn't be too hasty to call the Cowboys win a corrupt event, did you see the errors and missed tackles from the eels in the second half?
Submitted by Declan_S on
NRL players aren't going to miss tackles on purpose, they're playing for their next contract's value (and often their spot in the starting team) each and every game
Submitted by Declan_S on
However I am not denying that there may be corruption in the NRL at some level
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
tl;dr please continue to find enjoyment out of the game that we all love
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
No I only have questions over two of the tries, everything else was great football. But unlike what I say about the Cowboys when they whine about conspiracy, we were in a position to win the game. The Cowboys are usual beat even if the offending try is taken away.
Submitted by nola on
morning who are you picking round 14??
Submitted by a on
Cowboys have won 10 in a row
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
http://thefixisin.net/ ;-D
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Bring back Bill Harrigan......
Submitted by Steel Panther on
I'm with you Declan
Submitted by mark ashford on
Enough talk about corruption lets get back to the game we love!
Eels
Rabbits
Doggies
Warriors
easy!!!!! ha
Submitted by Declan_S on
Bunnies
Dogs
Warriors
Storm
Submitted by a on
Here are my tips
Rabbitohs by 1 I think the Tigers time is going to come sometimes but think its the Rabbitohs turn here
Warriors by 1 I had to flip a con with this one because I had no idea of where it isa going to go but it landed on heads so its the Warriors with absoulte no conferdence here
Titans by 1 another game where I had to flip the con with because I have no idea where it is going to go but it also landed on heads so its the Titans for me
Eels by 4 I think Melbourne will struggle without their origin players so its the Eels for me
Submitted by Johnny Boney on
Hi everyone my tips for this week!!!!!!
Rabbitohs by 16- Rabbits for me
Warriors by 10- Warriors to win due to Roosters without their origin stars so are Warriors but they are missing only 2 whereas Roosters are missing a lot.
Titans by 4- Titans to win in an absolute thriller
And finally... Eels by 14- Melbourne are missing their origin players and Cronk due to injury so Eels for me.
Thanks guys and see ya.
Submitted by Johnny Boney on
Oo and also my origin tip...
NSW by 6- 10-4- Without cronk they're going to lose because last time they were without Cronk and Cheery-Evans was halfback, look what happened, NSW 6-4 QLD. So NSW for me, GO THE BLUES. #bluestosaveseries.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I follow the game because the team I follow represents me , the same as the AFL's Geelong is part of most residents of the area. The team is just part of you.
Sour a taste it can be to watch sometimes, refs choosing when and when not to use the rule book. Times where your team just isn't allowed to touch the football until they have try after try scored against them.
The influence of ex-cops Harrigan and Archer is so evident. The refs culture has become NRL policeforce, treating rule offenders no different than common criminals.
Really not a union fan, but as far as refs go, they are a universe ahead. Calmly blowing a penalty and explaining if need be. After all, they are just following a rule book. That's their sole responsibility.
How is the NRL cop culture ever change? I don't know. Whilst ever they believe they are doing a great job nothing will change. While ever it is impossible to question the standard of refereeing, things aren't going to change.
A new generation of refs that believe in cool calm refereeing. That's the light at the end of this long dark tunnel.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
..and Baggy, you need a new bookie. I just got 951/1. If I lose the 10-er, so be it.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Happy that my 3rd choice QLD origin halves combination , is Mal's 1st
Submitted by a on
Are you going to post a comment again this week Wally Lewis
Submitted by Shanghai on
Hi all,
Eels
Rabbits
Doggies
Warriors
I've always wondered why refs just cant be consistent and referee the rules of the game. If they need to penalise players who don't play by the rules then so be it. Forget about being slammed in the media .... put the onus back onto the players to play within the rules. If players keep infringing, the coaches will soon set them straight. Funny how union refs just referee the game, penalise where and when necessary (with the help of the 'advantage rule') and somehow, have earned the respect of the players. It's rare to hear how Union refs ruined or are ruining rugby.
Anyway ........ enough from me. Go the Blues to keep the series alive
Submitted by a on
I think QLD will win 3-0 this week
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I could probably name a fair percentage of the current Wallaby players for as little as I follow the game, but I would have absolutely no chance of naming even one referee. They are invisible. They are not the focus, nor do they want to be. What the rugby league community would give to be able to say this about their own referees.
Submitted by tigerholic on
Gidday Folks
My tips for this weekend are:
Rabbits
Eels
Warriors
Titans
NSW to make a dream come true 18-6
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hi everyone,
OK last week’s “15 seconds method” at picking the winners only worked marginally so I might tweak it this week and allot 30 seconds per game to decide on my tips.
On a subconscious level, I might be taking into account “streak theory” (thanks Coach) and things to do with “green colours” in the jersey and “horizontal stripes” (thanks tonibet).
Just quickly, I notice a lot of talk regarding refereeing decisions and possible nefarious goings-on in games and within the NRL and so on. Dude, Newbie is, even after all these years, still trying to get his head around why they chuck it in the second row when they have a scrum! What’s the point of even having a scrum? What’s the point of even calling someone a hooker? Maybe down the pub when you’ve had too many frosties and ya get knocked back, but other than that? Anyway, need to move on so let’s get into it…
Rabbitohs - I think the Bunnies will have a bit more muscle and class and should get in pretty easily here.
Warriors - still can’t believe what happened last week. You gotta be kidding me boys! Trent, employ a hypnotist when we play those Sharkies next time will ya? Sorry guys but with SOO looming (I’m assuming we’ll have some big names out) I’m just a wee bit worried this week. Yes, you heard it here first. Newbie is tipping the Warriors to knock off his beloved Chooks this week. It hurts so much but more than willing to sacrifice a correct tip should we get up.
Bulldogs - this could possibly go either way. I’m only tipping the Doggies based on last week.
Storm - still couldn’t see any logical reason to tip the Eels, even after 30 seconds of thinking about it. Storm Troopers for me.
@ The Coach - still working on your “Premiers Theory”. Looking at a 3-way “dutching” approach as well as a simplified “percentage” plan based on collecting a set amount, as long as the figures can guarantee a half decent profit that is. Fingers crossed I can make it work. Keep ya posted!
@ Coach again - that “score anytime” multi looks interesting. Might take a gander at what the prices are showing at over here. In the spirit of gambling responsibly, might be worth putting a dollar on just for the hell of it. Thanks champ!
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week people. Cheers.
P.S. If there is an extra small and an extra large, why aren’t there any extra mediums? Hmmm…
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Update on “score anytime” 4 Leg Multi
Coach gets $950.00
Baggy gets $450.00
Newbie gets $375.00
Huh? Obviously the bookies are responding to your suggested bet Coach and have been adjusting the odds to compensate for the anticipated payouts coming our way. Newbie got a bit reckless and put on a $2 wager. Mind you, I won’t say “no” to a lazy $750.00 I can tell you. If this comes off Coach, you will be forever known as Coach “Nostradamus” Potato. Cheers!
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Well I'm coming out last in the stakes, Newbie dropped $2, for a $750 return, Coach went the might $10 for a $9500 return, and I punted a buck for $450 if they get up. Guys if we pool our coin we could have a good party.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
I think that the NRL refs could do with stealing the union angle of interpretation, instead of the by the number approach, i.e. obstruction leading up to a try. Watch some players drop like they have been shot to draw the penalty and therefore a no try ruling when even Phil Gould can see that it had no bearing on the play.
But a steal from AFL rules I would like to see is the 50m march for dissension. All these Captains running up to the ref to have their say to slow the game down, it'd be a thing of the past if they knew that by going to far or having another player give the single ref a serve would take the ball from the opponents 20 straight to your defensive 30.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
That is truly shocking if that's what UniTAB, and WA's equivalent does to sports punters. No Newbie, its not a sign of my national popularity. I do wonder how many people read and actually believe the crap we go on with? Crystal ball gazing and seeing Sharks, Stan Wawrinka, and Corey Norman come through the mist makes me look in hot form. No doubt that will reverse pretty quick.
Anyway, if you had a chance of pulling out of the bet once offered the reduced odds you should have. You get the 950/1 just the same by rolling over the old fashioned way. You could break it up into two, two leg multis of about 40-50/1. Then it just takes guts to put every cent you won back on to the next two leg multi but it would work that way.
NSWTAB are not always the best odds, but anything like this and you get the exact odds when legs are multiplied out (unless the market has updated just as you place it and you get the revised odds to either accept or reject). In saying that NSWTAB also now has a cash out option where you could cash in after, say, two legs and pull out of the rest of the bet.
Another reason to say Yaye NSW, Boooooooo QLD !!!!
Submitted by Coach Potato on
My other rule change is get rid of 40-20, and replace it with the 30-30!! Same distance kick involved, but huge territory given away if it doesn't come of.
As it stands, why the hell should the attacking team get a 40-20 advantage late in the tackle count when they are ready to kick the ball anyway?? With the 30-30, teams would have to kick very early. There needs to be a risk, not just a reward.
Submitted by a on
Yes the same distance is invoveled
Submitted by The Thinker on
The guys at work made me watch the thing from The Footy Show last night......goodness gracious me
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Not pretty viewing Thinker. Bit like watching Newcastle, Tigers, Warriors, Penrith and the Eels last weekend.
Rabbitohs - Sorry I just can't tip the Tigers who have great halves that look like they are devoid of ideas on how to get over the chalk.
Warriors - This is more a tip with my heart rather than the head. Look for Konrad to run faster now that he's shaved off his beard.
Bulldogs - Missing half a team but who's fronting up still look pretty daunting. The Grub to have a big game.
Storm - I'll take the Coach's stat here that teams run down the previous week struggle to back up.
@Baggy....what's the story with Sandow?
And where has the Joker gone??
Good luck to all!!
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
To my knowledge its all about the benjamines, We need to make room in the cap for Foran and others which is prudent, but to take an exceptional player like Sandow and force him into 3-4 up the middle and then swing it wide................. Obviously i'm no coach. But here are my tips
Rabbits - Still a pretty good team. And with Farah not there for the Tigers, they lose some structure but they still have youthful flair. We'll see how it plays out, But Rabbits by 19
Roosters - Hard to back anyone in this game, Warriors could win by the day 2 score over in Jamacia or they could lose by the same margin. I'll stick with the Roosters to bounce back from a rough weekend of carrying brown paper bags. ;P
Bulldogs - Nothing against the rest of the Titans team, but no Elgey, no winy. He was great last weekend and they will miss him and the other guys. The Bulldogs, like the Bunnies have a "second string" side that could make a decent team over in Perth and they would stand a chance. Also and the team have learnt what just say no means.
Eels - Glad its a Monday night and those bet rules, which worked pretty damn well are out of play. The BOYS will get up if Chris runs out on to AAMI park smiling with a devil may care attitude. They will do to Melbourne what they did to the Grassy Knoll boys last week end. Chris sandow doen't make the field........... I'm in for a very very very very very long night. We have the team to win and win well. Go the BOYS.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Just on the depth of some of these sides over origin. I know that expansion is a dirty word and if you think about lowering the salary cap you are a dirty communist, but both of those would help diversify the talent pool and even out the ladder. When you have the Bulldogs who lose 2 good forwards and their replacements are Kasiano (coming off the bench) and players like Kafoosi (?) where has he been all year.
Lets get certain monopoly's out of the game, and allow teams like the Titans to buy some S*^t hot talent to bring the game back to life.
Submitted by a on
I hope Titans get somebody
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x22c9go_dracula-ad-1972_shortfilms RIP Christopher Lee :-(
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The biggest detriment to the NRL talent pool was the upgrading of u/20s up to "2nd grade", and NSW / QLD cup regarded as 3rd grade.
Players would be much better off cutting their teeth in the tougher game with grown men, rather than cutting baby teeth amongst recently ex-high school kids. They've got it all backwards, but who's too tell the NRL ... again.
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