Round nineteen selections

Parramatta Eels vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

It might be heritage round but money talks louder than tradition, and the Eels have moved their home game from their traditional ground to the cavernous emptiness of ANZ Stadium. They'll get a nicer cheque from gate receipts, but the two points will be harder to come by. These sides met at this venue in round two, when the Bulldogs prevailed 32-12. That night the Eels had Nathan Peats, and they're a better side when they do. The Bulldogs lost last weekend, but I'm starting to think that form could be very good indeed. In any case I'm expecting a competitive affair and the Eels with the handicap start is tempting. Bulldogs by less than you think.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 4

Result - Bulldogs 28 defeated Eels 4

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers – Friday night – AAMI Park

I mentioned last week that the Panthers have played three away games outside of Sydney this season - and lost them all. Two of those losses were against the teams running 14th and 16th, and they lost badly. The Storm aren't exactly playing the house down at the moment, but they return home for the first time in a while and they return home for the 300th game of club captain Cameron Smith. It all points to a purple victory - particularly when you remind yourself that the Storm beat the Panthers (20-0) in Penrith in round 13.

Verdict – Storm by 14

Result - Storm 52 defeated Panthers 10

Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday afternoon – GIO Stadium

If Sam Williams wasn't injured last week I'd confidently tip the Raiders at home, but his absence focuses all the attention on Blake Austin. Attention is something Blake Austin needs to get used to. He was targeted last week and he'll be targeted again, so it's up to that enormous Raiders pack to protect him from that enormous Sharks pack as best they can. The Raiders beat the Sharks by four points away from home in round one, but both sides have improved since then. The Sharks impressed against the Dragons last week, but the Dragons were without Dugan and Marshall and I expect the Raiders will be harder to contain. Close...interesting and close.

Verdict – Raiders by 4

Result - Sharks 21 defeated Raiders 20

Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday night – Hunter Stadium

There's a long way to go in this competition, but winning this game could be the difference between last and second last at season's end. For mine, these two sides have disappointed the most. The Titans have had their share of issues to contend with, while the Knights are now last after winning their first four games of the season. The Wayne Bennett hangover hurts the worst. The Knights won't win many more games this season but they may get away with this one. They're a better side at home and the Titans are on a short turnaround from an atrocious Monday night performance. Greg Bird returns to add some starch and determination but I can't tip them after their last effort.

Verdict – Knights by 2

Result - Knights 30 defeated Titans 2

St George Illawarra Dragons vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Saturday night – Sydney Cricket Ground

We're back at ye olde cricket ground for a clash between two of the great NRL clubs. These sides met in round nine and the Rabbitohs prevailed by 16-10, and that was a pretty tough win by the Bunnies as they finished the game with 15 men. With Inglis back I lean that way again, although the absence of Issac Luke is noteworthy. The Dragons haven't won since round 12 and are in danger of drifting out of the top eight. They've impressed at times this year but are starting to look like they'll drift down and finish where most expected.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 2

Result - Rabbitohs 24 defeated Dragons 8

Sydney Roosters vs New Zealand Warriors – Sunday afternoon – Allianz Stadium

The last time the Warriors lost a game was to the Roosters in round 14, and this contest will give us a very good read on how good they really are. Two important things to take from that round 14 game - the Roosters were without Waerea-Hargreaves plus four Origin players and the Warriors are a much better side at home. Daytime conditions suit the Warriors style of play, and they should go into this game with confidence and self-belief. In any case it's the tricolours for me in what is clearly the game of the round. Back the overs in total points scored markets (providing the weather in Sydney is remotely agreeable for a change).

Verdict – Roosters by 8

Result - Roosters 24 defeated Warriors 0

Brisbane Broncos vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium

The Broncos don't get a lot of Sunday afternoon games, but when they do there's usually about 10,000 kids at the ground to watch them. Two of those kids will be junior Thinkers, who have been nagging me all season to stroll down and watch a game in Australia's greatest rectangle. The more I see of the Broncos the more I like them. I don't have time at the minute to check the records, but if the Broncos have ever come through a previous Origin period undefeated I would be very surprised. A crisp clear day in Brisbane beckons and the Broncos will give the local fans the razzle and the dazzle they want. Back Maranta, Reed, Milford, Hunt, Thaiday, McCullough and Gillett to score tries. Broncos 50 - Tigers 6.

Verdict – Broncos by 44

Result - Broncos 42 defeated Tigers 16

Manly Sea Eagles vs North Queensland Cowboys – Monday night – Brookvale Oval

In years gone by these were the games the Cowboys simply didn't win, but they're a different outfit in season 2015. Brookvale on a Monday night in July doesn't sound like much fun for a lad from the north, but the Cowboys have their sights set on a top two finish. No Tamou for the Cowboys but the rest of the pack should be well-rested and there's enough power in the legs of Scott and Taumalolo to keep the Sea Eagles forwards on the back foot. On the back of that, this dynamic Cowboys spine can create enough chances. Monday seems too far away, but this one is worth waiting for.

Verdict – Cowboys by 4

Result - Cowboys 30 defeated Sea Eagles 12

Wally Lewis - round nineteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • Eels vs BULLDOGS
  • STORM vs Panthers
  • Raiders vs SHARKS
  • KNIGHTS vs Titans
  • Dragons vs RABBITOHS
  • ROOSTERS vs Warriors
  • BRONCOS vs Tigers
  • Sea Eagles vs COWBOYS

Comments

Rick's picture

Like yourself a --- Cowboys but a real soft spot for the Raiders too as I am originally from Canberra but have lived in FNQ twelve years now.

christine 's picture

thinker I would not have thought you were a roosters fan that was unexpected

a's picture

Yes I throught Thinker was a Broncos fan

Coach Potato's picture

Everyone seems to think finals week 1 will be Brisbane v 4th, and Nth Qld v 3rd. but if Cowboys drop a couple of games, could easily be Brisbane v Cowboys week 1

christine 's picture

coach you could say for now I still support souths even though at times I may not want to admit it but I certainly won't be after this season

christine 's picture

who is going to take the wooden spoon this season c'mon coach what's your stats on that

Coach Potato's picture

Panthers are still a great price and if thats all they win this year, so be it. I support my team just the same.

Lots of teams dont look like winning many more games, but Tigers are looking as bad as any. Forwards not dominating, and a halves combo that would do ok in Holden Cup but that's about it.

christine 's picture

i'd say either tigers or titans

a's picture

Coach should should give a run home to the finals last the Manly vs Cowboys game tomrrow

Coach Potato's picture

Thinker, you've already had that :perplexing scruples question last year in finals week 2 - loser saying goodbye. I think we all would be interested to know what your thoughts were through stages of that game - at 30-0, at 30-all, and after the poorly timed forward pass to Thurston at the end? Were you broken like 'a', and Tailspin? because its curious to hear you would favour your second team over your first team in support of sharing the trophy around a bit. Can a team really win too many?

Not Johnny Ray's picture

Cowboys will win tomorrow ! Not enough upsets this week :-(

tonibet's picture

"Warriors can only reach 10 by winning four in a row."

Warriors Immediate Schedule:
H: Manly
H: Sharks
H: Dragons
A: Penrith

I say "Do-able" Coach,

...(and just to address today's 24-nil),

ever notice sometimes when a team gets thrashed (or does the thrashing), it's like they didn't really have a proper game, and can almost take the same effect as a BYE (non-event) ...and sometimes the BYE tends to work for that team?

...has so far for the Warriors this year... come on Warriors!!!

Coach Potato's picture

Did you get on Willett, tonibet ? Triple figures a few days ago wasn't he?

Thanks for your thoughts on Warriors. So funny hearing the streak theory being discussed by someone else. Yes, Warriors could get to 10 with that run and logic says any team in the 8 that wins four straight at this stage finishes top 4.

I still think the Sharks are the darker coloured horse. Sure they are two tough games, but wins against Bulldogs and Warriors would give them 10. Pretty underrated for a team thats beaten Roosters twice, beat Souths, beat Cowboys away. They must be doing something.

# Great watching Ashes with a win to make it 1-1 just a matter of time, but tough watching each ball that goes through to new keeper Peter Nevill. He's Phil Hughes' twin. Just a bit haunting.

Coach Potato's picture

Something I hadn't even considered before. What if a team like Manly went on a winning streak? They have a 2 streak in the bank and currently on another 2 streak. Not only could they reach 10. They could reach 11, so they could actually afford to drop 1 game and still be a top 4 chance and for that they are paying $34.

For just needing to win their next 2 games to be a top 4 chance the Sharks are looking juicy at $11.

Matter of fact, even the worst team, the Tigers still have time to get to 9!!!! That's definitely finals footy.

All teams from here can definitely be playing finals, and all but the Tigers can still make the top 4!!!! That's just a little bit amazing but I'm happy to let my theory say it can happen. My god, I'm currently talking about mad Monday for so many teams. If only they knew.

Current odds for top 4/ top 8

Broncos. 1.01/ ----
Cowboys 1.01/ ----
Roosters. 1.15/1.01
Souths. 2.10/1.06
Warriors. 3.00/1.35
Bulldogs. 3.25/1.25
Storm. 5.00/1.35
Dragons. 9.00/3.00
Sharks 11.00/1.50
Raiders. 17.00/3.50
Panthers. 21.00/3.50
Sea Eagles 34.00/3.75
Eels. 67.00/5.50
Titans. 251.00/17.00
Knights. 501.00/16.00
Tigers. 501.00/51.00

I have to repeat again. My god, if only teams knew.

a's picture

Cowboys will end Manlys winning steak tonight

Coach Potato's picture

What a horrible difference there is between Souths team with and without Inglis. Look what the hapless Tigers did. Then people just wouldn't have it that Penrith could do the same. Surely Inglis couldn't be a one man team they said.

Desperation meant I tipped Dragons, but thanks Greg because I think you helped justify what I said a few weeks ago, and helped shield me from some rocks thrown my way for simply asking people to open their eyes

a's picture

Tigers to win the wooden spoon

Baggy_Gee's picture

Thanks to the old Bondi boy, always a square call for all teams.

Not Johnny Ray's picture

Unless a the upset this week is that there were supposed to be no upsets and Sharks win against Raiders was fluke. Screw it ! I'm sticking with my original call ! Come on Manly you crap side ! :-s

a's picture

Manly will lose for sure

Not Johnny Ray's picture

Just seen 2015 Marvel Superheroes jersey's for this year and though I like what they went with I still think they should given "Ant Man" to West Tigers because based on this year performance they 'Ant' in it ! *BOOM* *Drops mic Harlem Shakes off stage* ;-D

Coach Potato's picture

Huge game in the context of the season tonight. Who would have guessed $#@&%-ing Shayne Hayne would want to have his 10c worth on the outcome? Give us all a break.

a's picture

Cowboys are leading 20-6 at half time

Not Johnny Ray's picture

Godamn Manly ! That will teach me a ... :-(

The Thinker's picture

Evening footy fans

A few perfect rounds this weekend - congrats to Footy Chick, Declan, Shanghai and the King himself. Apologies if I missed anyone - I think that's everyone.

Those with perfect rounds edged closer to the leaders - plenty of tipsters are still close enough to the leaders to make a contest of this.

Round 20 previews and selections should be published around lunchtime Wednesday.

All the best

a's picture

Cowboys put in their 1st full 80 minutes tonight

Coach Potato's picture

Broncos 14/0
Cowboys 12/3
Roosters 10/4
Sharks 8/5
Warriors 8/6
Dragons 8/8
Bulldogs 7/5
Souths 6/3
Storm 5/4
Gold Coast 5/10
Manly 4/8
Penrith 4/8
Newcastle 4/11
Canberra 3/8
Parramatta 3/8
Tigers 2/10

# Broncos, Cowboys, Roosters make a break from the rest as the top 3 streak scorers
# Tigers and also Gold Coast hit 10 on the losing streak (sorry I added the Titans wrong earlier)
# Manly win hit losing 10 if they lose next week
# Sharks will hit winning 10 if they win their next 2
# St George just need 2 in a row anywhere in last 6 games and finish the season playing Panthers Titans and Tigers.

Coach Potato's picture

# Lots of teams would like the Roosters current streak to finish next week against .... Tigers. Hoping against hope.

Concrete's almost setting on the top 3 streak scorers - Broncos Cowboys Roosters - the only teams that can win the premiership.

Coach Potato's picture

Hey JR, astronomically speaking, do you want to know how to view an actual black hole? Just get the biggest telescope you can find and then point it in the direction of Uranus.

a's picture

Cowboys will win the premreship

Baggy_Gee's picture

That was a pretty arsey joke there Coach. Got to feel sorry for Uranus, its been the butt of all galactic humour since it was named.

a's picture

Cowboys will beat the Eels easy next week

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