Round twenty selections

Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

It's a good thing Mick Fanning dodged that shark - the Titans need every fan they have. Unlike Mick Fanning, It looked like the Titans gave up last week, and that is unusual for this club. If they don't turn up again for the local derby I'd be surprised. Aiden Sezer is back, but it won't be enough. When Bennett was asked last year (by Lachlan Murdoch) why the Broncos should welcome him home his response was, as you would expect from Bennett, straight-forward. "We'll win a premiership." If it happens (and I think it will) the cagey old buggar could be the next statue outside Lang Park.

Verdict – Broncos by 22

Result - Broncos 34 defeated Titans 0

Wests Tigers vs Sydney Roosters – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

The only change to the Roosters line-up that kept the Warriors on zero last week is the inclusion of one of the best second-rowers in the NRL in Boyd Cordnor. Their performance last week was reminiscent of some of their performances back in 2013. In that year they were the only team to score more than 600 points (640) and the only team to concede less than 350 points (325) during the home and away season. There were seven or eight occasions that season when they kept their opponent to nil. Remember that the Warriors scored 94 points in the three games prior to the duck egg against the Roosters - they aren't an easy team to keep out. I don't expect the Tigers to score either.

Verdict – Roosters by 32

Result - Roosters 33 defeated Tigers 8

New Zealand Warriors vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

A quick turnaround for the Sea Eagles, combined with some international travel, makes this quite the challenge for the Brookvale boys. I don't have a great deal of faith in the Sea Eagles pack at the best of times so I can't see them winning that contest under these circumstances. Given that, we should get another chance to see some Shaun Johnson magic...and who doesn't like magic?

Verdict – Warriors by 10

Result - Sea Eagles 32 defeated Warriors 12

Melbourne Storm vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday night – McLean Stadium

McLean Stadium is in Napier, New Zealand if you were puzzled by the venue. There's no shortage of Kiwis in the Storm seventeen so I expect they'll have their fare share of support in the stands. While the Dragons continue to be competitive they haven't won a game since round 12. I'm sure they'll be competitive again, but if anyone knows how to grind out a win in a competitive fixture it's the purple machine. Cameron Munster showed me enough last week to prove that the Storm have a handy replacement when Billy Slater finally calls time. He's no Slater (obviously), but he's good.

Verdict – Storm by 7

Result - Storm 22 defeated Dragons 4

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday night – ANZ Stadium

A 'dead knight bounce' from Newcastle last week with their convincing win against the Titans. This weekend they face the defending premiers at home...and Issac Luke is back. There'll be glimpses of goodness from the Novacastrians - they do look a better side with Mullen in the halves and Gidley at fullback. Glimpses won't beat the better teams and there's no denying the Rabbitohs are still one of those.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 14

Result - Rabbitohs 52 defeated Knights 6

Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – Pepper Stadium

In what looks like a lop-sided round of footy this is the game you want to be getting right. The Panthers are a warm favourite but I'm struggling to find a lot of love for them on the back of their last two performances. Importantly, those two big losses were against good teams (Roosters and Storm), and prior to that they did put the Bunnies to the sword. On paper they should win, but I feel like this Raiders pack can dominate. The Raiders have won 5 of 8 away games this season. The teams that beat them (Roosters, Warriors and the Dragons when they were going well) are better than the Panthers. In any case, daytime conditions in Penrith aren't that much different to daytime conditions in Canberra at this time of year.

Verdict – Raiders by 8

Result - Raiders 34 defeated Panthers 24

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Cronulla Sharks – Sunday afternoon – Belmore Sports Ground

The game of the round, at least in part due to the venue. The weather looks promising and they'll pack the stands at Belmore. There is something special about a sunny Sunday afternoon game at a traditional ground in Sydney. As a bonus we have two teams in form and playing with confidence. I still doubt both sides against the top three or four teams, but it looks more likely each week that both these sides will be rounding out the top eight come September. I'm tipping the home ground advantage (and a Hodkinson field goal) gets the Doggies over the line. At $1.40 I couldn't possibly back the Bulldogs, particularly when I can get $1.53 about the Sharks with 12.5 points start. Dogs....just. Excited.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 1

Result - Sharks 18 defeated Bulldogs 16

North Queensland Cowboys vs Parramatta Eels – Monday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

I've mentioned previously that the Broncos came through the Origin period undefeated. It's also worth noting that the only game the Cowboys lost during that time is the game they rested Jonathan Thurston. They dominated the Sea Eagles last Monday night and there's no reason to think they can't carry that form into this round. Many of you may recall the last time these sides met (also on a Monday night) when the Cowboys came from behind in one of the more extraordinary victories you're ever likely to see. Since then, I feel the Cowboys have made an effort to focus on starting well, and in recent weeks they've been the first to score more often than not. They'll be no come-from-behind victory this Monday night - expect the Cowboys to lead throughout and win well.

Verdict – Cowboys by 20

Result - Cowboys 46 defeated Eels 4

Wally Lewis - round twenty selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • BRONCOS vs Titans
  • Tigers vs ROOSTERS
  • WARRIORS vs Sea Eagles
  • STORM vs Dragons
  • RABBITOHS vs Knights
  • PANTHERS vs Raiders
  • BULLDOGS vs Sharks
  • COWBOYS vs Eels

William Hill Premium Price Odds  - NRL Round 20

I haven't posted one of these for a while - this is pretty good.

South Sydney to beat the Knights on Saturday night at ANZ Stadium paying $2.00 (instead of $1.17). Maximum bet at those odds is $25. Gamble resonsibly and good luck. Here's the link:

http://partners.affiliatesunited.com.au/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_10302b_1152

Comments

Steel Panther's picture

After that performance tonight and no Johnson the Warriors will not make the 8

Coach Potato's picture

Sorry Mark. Half-cocked is one of my middle names. But if what you say is that the NRL as a whole is made up of 65% NSW players and the rest NZ and QLD, then what does that say about QLD footy? Scouts have eyes all over the country and if a young player is good enough, they are on a plane to Sydney, looked after in every way. Obviously the they have enough great players, but where are their next two levels?

Sure Inglis doesn't make or break the Qld side but there's no denying NSW would be a stronger team if selection criteria had been followed 10 years ago, and also fair to say I think, we wouldn't have had a streak of 8. Inglis would have had a say somewhere along the way. Struggle to see how that is in question.

Anyway, you won. Try and be happy. Its fish n' chip wrapper now. NSW will try again next year . Hopefully Inglis calls it quits and leaves us alone.

Coach Potato's picture

With 6 1/2 weeks to go, looks like the premiership is a race in 4, the fourth team being the unlikely Sharks.

They will take their streak to 9 if they beat the Bulldogs and then are a minor minor chance of catching Roosters on 11. Otherwise it looks like the top 3 all the way. 6 weeks out, Thinker already priming for finals rematch blockbuster.

a's picture

It will be a Cowboys vs Broncos grand fin

Coach Potato's picture

Plenty of years where the best two teams don't go all the way through September, but these teams never having to leave home until the big day becomes a huge advantage. Some would say unfair, but playing in Sydney probably gives advantage to the oppositions like last year's farce.

Adds weight to the need to give home ground advantage through September regardless of who the home team is.

Coach Potato's picture

Dragons now one game away from the dreaded 10 losing streak. How horribly downhill since the halfway mark.

Haven't beaten anyone at all since 'st george' asked who was going to beat them. woopsey!

The Thinker's picture

I can't count it yet but my Rabbitohs money is looking fairly safe.

Ching! Ching!

a's picture

I hope Cowboys will win on Monday night

Coach Potato's picture

Well done Thinker but I say hardly qualifies as gambling if a billion dollar business allows you a maximum $25 winfall. For a pittance, all they really do is suck you in for the next time. If they are going to lay a favourite, be fair dinkum about it. When they give better odds on the geegees that the favourite won't win they don't say - oh, and most you can bet is $25?!! What's the difference. Take a bet or don't offer the odds I say.

Coach Potato's picture

Tough call Declan. You should still count your score on the side, and if that means you would have won, then that's still a victory.

Whether the zilch rule should only apply per game. Eg get tips in at 8pm so your two Friday games get cut but you are good for the other six? I know Thinker has a cut-off, but if you are only late once in a blue moon, shouldn't cause too much of drama. Not like there's 500 entries to adjust.

If there's might be any right of appeal, I'd support you on letting your last six tips stand. There's been no case like yours before - only Friday games late. What say others?

Johnny Ray's picture

Again I just want to thanks Coach Potato for all his stats he's been giving us. I don't know about you but I really do appreciate reading them and it's things like this that makes me thankful for coming back. That and I knew there would be an upset on Saturday night never would of thought it would be Warriors based on Sea Eagles performance last Monday and their short turnaround that why I went with Dragons who have been unbeatable playing in New Zealand these last five years. Also with Shaun Johnson out for season it looks like Warriors are done. Godamn ! So unless Titans or Raiders can get up I'm going with the Rabbitohs from now on till finals ! Time to throw on their shirt, learn team song and wrap aerial from TV downstairs around my head ... ;-D

a's picture

Looks like Warriors are going to miss out on finals

The Thinker's picture

Coach,
"That said, I'll put your tips through for the remaining six games."

I am including the tips for the last six games. The only ones I haven't counted are the games that had already started.

Coach Potato's picture

Yes, Mark already picked up on my intermittent dyslexia / domestic blindness. Two behind further behind Declan. Lots of people would be happy to swap places with you.

Tough for Warriors without their engineroom. Tough for the Dragons they don't remember how to win. Could it be opening up for the winner of today's Panthers Raiders game? Fingers crossed. People want to talk about injuroes, but we had plenty last year

Steel Panther's picture

My call...the Warriors won't win another game this season.....

Coach Potato's picture

Last week in Heritage round the Panthers chose to wear pink. Now a week later they wear brown and white stripes. That's hugely embarassing for me.

Baggy_Gee's picture

At least my daughters like to see Penrith play. Not much love here for the BOYS this monday night. I feel a bit lonely.

a's picture

I think Raiders are a huge chance of making finals

Steel Panther's picture

The way Penrith played was the only thing embarrasing Coach. For an experienced 6 & 7 Soward & Wallace should have done better. Your man Cartwright was poor too.

a's picture

Looks like Panthers will not make the finals

Coach Potato's picture

Been clear for most of the season. Two streaks of 2 doesn't get you far

Coach Potato's picture

I thought it might be worth looking at how the Sharks have gone through history when they've achieved a streak score of 9 or better. Couldn't have happened too many times I thought. Actually this year is the 16th time. So here are their results when getting to 9 or better:

Year - Streak Score - Table Position - Finish

1973 - 13 - 2nd - Grand Finalist
1977 - 11 - 6th - missed the Top5 by 2 points
1978 - 14 - 2th - Grand Finalist
1979 - 9 - 3rd (Top4 less than 10??) - Finals week 2
1981 - 11- 4th - Finals week 1
1982 - 10 -9th - WTF???!
1988 - 14 - 1st - Preliminary Finalist
1989 - 10 - 5th - Finals week 1
1995 - 13 - 4th - Finals week 2
1996 - 10 - 5th - Preliminary Finalist
1997 - 10 - 2nd - Grand Finalist
1999 - 14 - 1st - Preliminary Finalist
2002 - 14 - 5th - Preliminary Finalist
2008 - 10 - 3rd - Preliminary Finalist
2012 - 9 - 7th - Finals week 1
2015 - 9 and counting .....

Sharks will hit 10 if they beat the Warriors away next week.

Current streak table reads

15 Broncos
12 Cowboys *still to play
11 Roosters
9 Sharks
8 Souths
8 Warriors
8 Dragons
7 Storm
7 Bulldogs

Coach Potato's picture

... So the last 5 x the Sharks have scored 10+ they have reached the Preliminary Final every time, and one Grand Final.

Interesting game next week I think.

a's picture

Sharks vs Warriors will be intresting

Johnny Ray's picture

A and Tailspin must be loving this from Cowboys ... :-)

a's picture

I sure am Johnny Ray

The Thinker's picture

Evening football fans

The tipping comp has been updated, and Tigerholic and Scott M have maintained their lead. Top scorer in round 20 was my old buddie Newbie from Perth with an impressive 7 from 8. What makes that even more impressive was the only game he got wrong was the Rabbitohs vs Knights...and I'm pretty sure he's the only person who got that game wrong.

My previews and tips for round 21 should be published on Wednesday.

Coach Potato's picture

Sharks are still $7 to make top 4, but they hit the magic 10, along with the big 3 if they beat the Warriors next week. To me and my theory, that's like saying $7 to win next week's game. I think they will be a touch shorter than that on the day.

Whatsmore the last 5 times Sharks have hit 10+, they have made either Prelim, or Grand Final. Feels like undeniable evidence. They have beaten the Cowboys away, beaten the Roosters twice, and only let the Broncos score 10 points. Mick Fanning can certainly attest that the Sharks are biting this year.

a's picture

Sharks might be a team to beat

Tailspin's picture

It's all good at the moment Johnny Ray, I can't wait to see them play a full 80min of footy though.

a's picture

Me too

christine 's picture

souths have won 11 if you look at the ladder

Coach Potato's picture

Not talking about wins Christine, talking about a teams best 3 winning streaks. Just a theory I've got. Means nothing to the uninitiated. Souths best three streaks only adds up to 8.

tigerholic's picture

Gidday Folks
Just a question for the "thinker". I was wondering if all of this years tipsters will get an automatic start for next year. I have really enjoyed the site even though I do not make a lot of comments.

Hoping everyone's team goes well for the remaining 6 weeks, even though my TIGERS will take the spoon.
Cheers

a's picture

It does not sound fair to me tigerholic

tigerholic's picture

Whats not fair"a" Don't you want to be a part of this site next year?

Coach Potato's picture

Hey Tigerholic, I think 'a' is just warming up lines for post match interviews after another big semi-final.

Baggy_Gee's picture

'A' can't be getting ready, he hasn't said anything about conspiracy, robbery, or an unfair go for the QLD teams from the NRL body.

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