Round twenty-six selections

Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm – Thursday night – Suncorp Stadium

The Broncos would need to win (and by a space) to have any chance of the minor premiership. Even then results on Friday night have to fall their way for that to happen. It's a longshot. Losing second spot is virtually impossible. They get their home final, and it should be a bottler of a game against the Cowboys. For the Storm it's a little complicated. If they win they can replace the Sharks in the top four (if the Sharks lose). Top four is great, but it means an away game in the first week of the finals. A loss and, theoretically they could finish as low as seventh - facing a knockout final away from home. That's unlikely but possible, and they certainly don't want that. On weights and measures the Storm will want this more, but are they good enough? I mentioned last week that the Roosters/Broncos game was the high water mark of the season - both those sides came out a week later and smashed decent teams away from home. This Broncos side is humming, and Bennett is convinced they'll be better next year. David Stagg gets a run on Thursday, and a chance to play one more big game at Suncorp before he calls time. A good egg. A smart egg. I wish him well in retirement. Note that Ben Hunt is also resting his corked thigh...there may be more to come. Bellamy wasn't happy with the draw for his purple machine, but one advantage of the Thursday night slot is these sides get at least one extra day (in some cases it's three extra days) to prepare for the finals. The Broncos will find this hard to lose but I'm punting on it - Bennett and his playmakers will want to hold some trick shots back for the finals. The Storm can't win the premiership this season, but this team has life in it yet. A golden point victory for the purple machine. Looks a cracker.

Verdict – Storm by 1

Result - Storm 15 defeated Broncos 8

Sydney Roosters vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – Allianz Stadium

Before this game kicks off the Roosters will probably have the minor premiership in their keeping. They could rest some of their stars, but plenty of them are already resting. It didn't stop the rest of the tricolours putting the Sea Eagles to the cleaners at Brookvale. This side, like the Broncos, are humming. The Bunnies are in seventh place and can't fall any lower. It looks like they'll face the Bulldogs in the first week of the finals - which is a home game for both of them. Luke is out, Inglis is out, Sutton is out. If I can coin a phrase, the result looks pre-emptable. If the NRL have their wits about them the Chooks should be parading the JJ Giltinan Shield after full-time. That's three minor premierships in a row which is a mighty achievement - the last team that did that had all three minor premierships stripped away. Parading that trophy will feel even nicer knowing that the Bunnies have to sit there on their sad sorry bunny butts watching them.

Verdict – Roosters by 20

Result - Roosters 30 defeated Rabbitohs 0

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday afternoon – Pepper Stadium

Fifteenth plays sixteenth so both teams have plenty on the line. Whichever side wins avoids the spoon, but a win for the Panthers and they could move as high as 11th. The only team the Panthers have beaten in quite a while is the Warriors, while the Knights under Buderus have been good enough to beat the Storm in Melbourne and go close to knocking off the in-form Bulldogs last round. That game was something of a grand final for the Knights, whereas this is a grand final for the Panthers. That could prove the difference as both sides look forward to putting a full stop at the end of what have been very disappointing 2015 campaigns.

Verdict – Panthers by 4

Result - Panthers 30 defeated Knights 12

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – ANZ Stadium

The Tigers could actually win the wooden spoon this year, but it would take a draw in the Panthers/Knights game for that to happen. It probably won't happen. A win and they could push up to 11th instead of 15th, which is something...I guess. The Dragons will probably hold onto 8th place whether they win or lose, but a win guarantees it. Their coach looked fired up after the loss last week and I expect their minds to be on the job. The Tigers put in last week for Farah, Galloway and Richards. I doubt they can replicate it.

Verdict – Dragons by 8

Result - Dragons 32 defeated Tigers 30

North Queensland Cowboys vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

If the Storm flogged the Broncos the Cowboys can make the top two with a big win but it's just a maths equation for now. James Tamou is back on Saturday night and the run will do him the world of good before the finals. It took him a while to get his zing back following his last return from injury. There's also rumblings that Michael Morgan could be back sometime soon, and the premiership race gets a lot more interesting if he's in the picture. This particular game is a difficult one to call - neither side has much on the line. The Titans have named an extended bench and it wouldn't surprise me if some of their kids get a run this weekend. The Cowboys are a class above.

Verdict – Cowboys by 4

Result - Cowboys 42 defeated Titans 12

Parramatta Eels vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – Pirtek Stadium

The Raiders got to celebrate with a win in their last home game on Monday night, and I suspect thoughts have already turned to Mad September. Note that Blake Austin and Jack Wighton are both unavailable. The Eels have been competitive in recent weeks and deserve a win - they get their chance in the traditional Sunday afternoon timeslot at their home ground. You can get $1.70 about the Eels if you shop around, and for my money that is very good shopping. Gamble responsibly.

Verdict – Eels by 10

Result - Raiders 28 defeated Eels 24

Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday afternoon – Remondis Stadium

If the Dragons beat the Tigers this game is meaningless to the Sea Eagles. The Sharks on the other hand, have three teams on their tail with better points differentials. If they win they stay where they are, but if they lose they will almost certainly drop out of the top four - the Bulldogs will make certain of that in the hours that follow. I suggested that the Manly campaign looked like it was running out of steam last week and they played that way. The Sharks are in winning form and have too much to lose. Geoff Toovey deserves a nicer finale, but the cards don't always fall the way we'd like them to.

Verdict – Sharks by 10

Result - Sea Eagles 14 defeated Sharks 12

Canterbury Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors – Sunday night – ANZ Stadium

The Bulldogs could still finish fourth, fifth, sixth or seventh this season. By kickoff some of those options may no longer be available to them. Sixth or seventh isn't likely to make much difference - because the result in either case is a game at ANZ stadium against the Bunnies in week one of the finals. The Warriors gave up weeks ago - they may come out with some razzle dazzle early and could jag a try or two (like they did against the Cowboys), but at some point the game gets hard and the Warriors will go soft. Bulldogs 50ish - Warriors 10ish. It would be worse, but Des will start wrapping key players in cotton wool in the second half. Cotton wool stems the bleeding.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 40

Result - Bulldogs 26 defeated Warriors 22

Wally Lewis - round twenty-six selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • BRONCOS vs Storm
  • ROOSTERS vs Rabbitohs
  • Panthers vs KNIGHTS
  • DRAGONS vs Tigers
  • COWBOYS vs Titans
  • EELS vs Raiders
  • SHARKS vs Sea Eagles
  • BULLDOGS vs Warriors

Comments

The Thinker's picture

No No...I get your point

It was just a little unclear at the start of proceedings.
:-)

a's picture

Looks like Cowboys will have to beat the Tinans in under 20s if they want to win the minor premiership

Coach Potato's picture

I know I keep saying it but boy there's a difference to a Souths team with and without Inglis. He makes a massive difference to any team he's part of (note: part of each of the 8 straight Origin series wins).

Means watch out big time to any team that faces Souths next week (if He's back).

Coach Potato's picture

Not to the same degree, but Penrith are also a different team with and without Whare. He's the class link-man between halves and the wing, and I hear He's back today.

Coach Potato's picture

U20 Panthers coming 1st at the moment, a?

Coach Potato's picture

U20 Panthers coming 1st at the moment, a?

Coach Potato's picture

U20 Panthers coming 1st at the moment, a?

Coach Potato's picture

Paul Green you're a bloody idiot

Johnny Ray's picture

Dude I am really getting sick of seeing these Referee's costing clubs games. They better not cost anybody a grand final because it's seriously starting to look like it will ... :-(

Baggy_Gee's picture

How do you justify a 12 point start as the Cowboys? Even against the Titans, the best teams will punish you with that.

Coach Potato's picture

Was Thurston passing his goal kicking tee around for fun because it was the last game? No I doubt it. After missing an easy kick on his preferred side with a kick that failed to hook back at all, it told me something was not right with that right groin. He has a history of this injury and the Maroons section of the Broncos know only too well how it affects his play. It's also not a muscle that heals very easily, so he will carry it through the finals series.

Not much doubt what Bennett's game plan will be. Run numbers at Thurston, set after set.

Cowboys appeared impressive against the Titans but the Thurston injury (the one that noone's mentioning) has almost certainly cursed the Cowboys once more. Ten years on from their only Grand Final, the rest of that team is long gone. Only one player still remains, and he's all but a busted unit.

Coach Potato's picture

Baggy, 12.5 start to Gold Coast shows that bookies thought Green would rest players too. Imagine if they'd offered 20.5 start and then news came out next day that Green was sending out the B team. They would've got smashed.

Coach Potato's picture

You'd have to be curious about how the above article ended ...

"Thurston said he hopes the complaint will ease before Saturday's home stand against the Bulldogs, who are looking for three straight wins at Dairy Farmers Stadium.

The Cowboys will certainly require the services of their star playmaker, given the club is looking to avoid a fifth straight loss and sits 12th on the ladder.

"Just hopefully it settles down, it felt really good going into the game but it's a little bit tender now," he said.

"But it's still a few days away until we play and hopefully we'll be right."

So what happened that next week? Records show the Bulldogs came up to Townsville and did a number on the Cowboys. Did they target Thurston? No, they couldn't. He wasn't able to take make the starting 17.

Coach Potato's picture

Hey Paul Green you played Thurston instead of resting him. Are you now happy you did that. You idiot.

mark ashford's picture

Hi guys & gals
Back from the fishing trip to hear the Broncs got done at home doesn't look good for the finals.
Tigerholic we were at Happy Valley just a coupla Ks south of Cathedral. Had left home before you posted otherwise would have come looking....never mind maybe next year.
Tailspin can't believe you were there too at the same time.
Hey Coach what are the odds of 3 of us being on Fraser Island at the same time?
Good luck to all for the rest of the round.

a's picture

Cowboys will beat Broncos next week

The Thinker's picture

Welcome back Mark

There's almost enough of us to organize our own camp.

Hope you got onto a few.

a's picture

Does anyone know what time the games are on next week

Johnny Ray's picture

Crap ! Cheating Referee's ! That's cost me two games this week ! I am so glad league season is almost over ! Paramatta should of won that game ... :-(

christine 's picture

off season is so boring

a's picture

Yes it is

Coach Potato's picture

2009.
The only time in decades I found where a team didn't get to a streak score of 10 and still made the top 4. It was the Melbourne Storm. Not only that, but they went on to win the Grand Final that year (ony later to have it taken away for salary cap breaches). Again, the only time in decades where the premiership didn't go to a team with a top 3 streak score.

2009 sum of best three winning streaks
1.St George 14
2.Canterbury 13
3.Gold Coast 12
4.Melbourne 8

So now it's happened again. And which team was it? Yep. The Melbourne Storm.

2015 sum of best three winning streaks
Roosters 17
Broncos 15
Cowboys 15
Storm 7

Are they now destined to go on and win the Grand Final??? It's a horrible thought I know but stats say Double De 'Ja Vu.

The bottom 4 was much truer to form

2015 sum of longest three losing streaks
Gold Coast 11
Tigers 11
Panthers 11
Knights 14

Coach Potato's picture

..although Penrith somehow finished an almost respectable 11th on the ladder, so not in the bottom 4.

a's picture

Cowboys vs Broncos on a Saturday night

Coach Potato's picture

Both grades. How cruel for Cowboys U20s. Finish 4 points clear of Broncos in 2nd place and only get to play away at Suncorp before the 1st grade game.

In a way I guess it's better than if they'd won the minor premiership, because they would have had to travel to Sydney to play before the Roosters game.

Hang on a minute. Is that how the 12th placed Gold Coast U20 team downed the Cowboys in Townsville last night? (Because there was an advantage to losing). I thought it was just their 1st grade team that played in games smelling not rats.

Coach Potato's picture

*of rats

Coach Potato's picture

And the stench continues.

Dogs play their home game at ANZ when I'm sure they would prefer and get better home ground advantage at Belmore.

Sharks their home game against Souths at SFS - 2km from Redfern. Give us all a friggin break.

Cowboys second game come what may will be in Townsville which has a capacity of 26,500.

AFL have always played 1 v 4 as the first game, and that winner always plays the first prelim. This is to reward the top team with an extra days rest - or at least no chance of a 6 day turn around.

In the NRL, it's almost anything goes. Play the 2nd qualifying final first because it satisfies QLD TV which just has too much say and power when it comes to Fridays.

Last year the Roosters Panthers game should also have been played first, and Panthers play the first prelim, but both dates were switched to suit the ultimate Premiers.

NRL finals scheduling is still horseshit.

a's picture

This time is the other way around

Coach Potato's picture

Woopsie!!

Retract previous comment. I see Broncos v Cowboys is on Saturday as it should be.

Doesn't answer why Roosters Panthers got shoved to Saturday last year. Actually, for me it does.

a's picture

AFL is playing their2nd vs 3rd game 1st this year

The Thinker's picture

Evening football fans,

The NRL ladder for season 2015 has been finalised and updated - we have two sides in the top eight who conceded more points than they scored. The last time we had one was in 2009 (Broncos - 6th).

The tipping ladder has also been updated. Footy Chick has surged up the ladder and is now fighting for prizemoney. She top-scored the round with 6 from 8 - alongside yours truly. Not one person picked the Raiders to beat the Eels.

Previews and selections for the first week of the finals will be published on Wednesday.

All the best

Coach Potato's picture

Thanks a, more holes in my theories lately than there are dots on a golf ball.

Need to work that one out? Is it Hawthorn who have the boardroom power and demand to be in the first final? Not sure. Weird.

Coach Potato's picture

For anyone interested in the Holden Cup and NRL order of play it's :

Friday, September 11, Allianz Stadium

Game 1: Holden Cup: (6) Sydney Roosters v (7) NZ Warriors, 5.15pm

Game 2: NRL: (1) Sydney Roosters v (4) Melbourne Storm, 7:55pm

Elimination Final 1: Saturday, September 12, ANZ Stadium

Game 3: Holden Cup: (1) Penrith Panthers v (4) Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, 3.10pm

Game 4: NRL: (5) Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v (8) St George Illawarra Dragons ,5.50pm

Qualifying Final 2: Saturday, September 12, Suncorp Stadium

Game 5: Holden Cup: (2) Nth Qld Cowboys v (3) Brisbane Broncos,
5.15pm

Game 6: NRL (2) Brisbane Broncos v (3) North Qld Cowboys , 7.55pm

Elimination Final 2: Sunday, September 13, Allianz Stadium

Game 7: Holden Cup (5) Wests Tigers v (8) Canberra Raiders, 1.30pm

Game 8: NRL: (6) Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks v (7) South Sydney Rabbitohs 4.10pm

Coach Potato's picture

In the NRL's wisdom they have ended up having some 1st-4th NRL games mixed in with 5th-8th Holden Cup games and vice versa.

Why? Because they can.

a's picture

They are just sorting out what's the best schulde

Steel Panther's picture

Baggy...what happened to your team yesterday? It was disappointing to see them clutch defeat from the jaws of victory. It sure was a mad finish. Less than a minute on the clock and the Raiders still managed to score out wide when they had a man in the bin!! For me it was heartening to see my team at least be a little more competitive but again a simple mistake was all it took to lose the match. Another poor season for the Warriors.

Johnny Ray's picture

Thanks for putting up next week schedule coach ! As someone who has spent last hour looking for it, that's so awesome of you ! Thanks mate ;-D

a's picture

Go Cowboys

tigerholic's picture

Gidday Folks
Not a great weekend for tips from my point of view but only 4 games this weekend which sort of makes it a little less difficult.
How fast has this season gone, I can't believe that we are into the finals already.
Tipping has consumed a lot of my time time this year , I am in 3 different tipping comps and only one has ended with the finish of the regular season, I came 3rd in that comp.
It's been a pity that I couldn't match my tipping success with my bets, I would have made a squillion.
Anyway, regardless of the outcome of the next few weeks, thanks to everyone for being a part of the tipping, thanks to Thinker and you're helper it's been great and I look forward to next year.
I really hope that a refereeing error does not decide the outcome of any game in the finals, we still face the inconsistency that frustrates us all week in week out, I listen to the footy when I'm at work on Tripple M in Brisbane and the ex ref Harrigan is still the best ref in a decade or so by far.
Good luck this weekend
Cheers

a's picture

Hope refs don't rob the Cowboys this year

Coach Potato's picture

Minor injury hey Jonathon? We'll see how minor it is with wave after wave of ball carriers coming your way.

Coach Potato's picture

Tiger, refs have cost teams already so makes no difference if it happens in the Grand Final now.

Eg When Gordon was stripped with three players on him late in the game yesterday, a penalty leading to a shot at goal from close range, leading to a draw would have given Sharks fourth place (pending Golden Point of course). They had their chances some will argue, but does that excuse refs choosing not to follow the rule book?

a's picture

Johnathon Thruston will play everyone knows that

Baggy_Gee's picture

Can't say why the BOYS dropped it. Our outside defence has been suspect all year and they took advantage. How it still happened with the 13 on 12 overlap.............................................. I feel gut shot at the result but I also know that there is always next year, another season as a member and watching a few games live. Hope the BOYS behave themselves and don't start the season with any stupidity on their books. Go Sami with the try scorer crown this year and also the new record holder at Pirtek.

Coach Potato's picture

... So today's article sheds more light calling it a "slight groin issue". Great work detective Potato. But hang on, I'm not sure if there is such a thing as a slight issue. At minimum with Thurston this a flair up of an old injury. The slightest of groin strains will take at least a week, but a recurrence of an old injury for a 32 year old must take longer. If he makes it onto the park, it'll be dodgy at best.

All I can say is, Paul Green you're a bloody idiot.

a's picture

Cowboys will win trust me they will

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