Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm – Thursday night – Suncorp Stadium
The Broncos would need to win (and by a space) to have any chance of the minor premiership. Even then results on Friday night have to fall their way for that to happen. It's a longshot. Losing second spot is virtually impossible. They get their home final, and it should be a bottler of a game against the Cowboys. For the Storm it's a little complicated. If they win they can replace the Sharks in the top four (if the Sharks lose). Top four is great, but it means an away game in the first week of the finals. A loss and, theoretically they could finish as low as seventh - facing a knockout final away from home. That's unlikely but possible, and they certainly don't want that. On weights and measures the Storm will want this more, but are they good enough? I mentioned last week that the Roosters/Broncos game was the high water mark of the season - both those sides came out a week later and smashed decent teams away from home. This Broncos side is humming, and Bennett is convinced they'll be better next year. David Stagg gets a run on Thursday, and a chance to play one more big game at Suncorp before he calls time. A good egg. A smart egg. I wish him well in retirement. Note that Ben Hunt is also resting his corked thigh...there may be more to come. Bellamy wasn't happy with the draw for his purple machine, but one advantage of the Thursday night slot is these sides get at least one extra day (in some cases it's three extra days) to prepare for the finals. The Broncos will find this hard to lose but I'm punting on it - Bennett and his playmakers will want to hold some trick shots back for the finals. The Storm can't win the premiership this season, but this team has life in it yet. A golden point victory for the purple machine. Looks a cracker.
Verdict – Storm by 1
Result - Storm 15 defeated Broncos 8
Sydney Roosters vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – Allianz Stadium
Before this game kicks off the Roosters will probably have the minor premiership in their keeping. They could rest some of their stars, but plenty of them are already resting. It didn't stop the rest of the tricolours putting the Sea Eagles to the cleaners at Brookvale. This side, like the Broncos, are humming. The Bunnies are in seventh place and can't fall any lower. It looks like they'll face the Bulldogs in the first week of the finals - which is a home game for both of them. Luke is out, Inglis is out, Sutton is out. If I can coin a phrase, the result looks pre-emptable. If the NRL have their wits about them the Chooks should be parading the JJ Giltinan Shield after full-time. That's three minor premierships in a row which is a mighty achievement - the last team that did that had all three minor premierships stripped away. Parading that trophy will feel even nicer knowing that the Bunnies have to sit there on their sad sorry bunny butts watching them.
Verdict – Roosters by 20
Result - Roosters 30 defeated Rabbitohs 0
Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday afternoon – Pepper Stadium
Fifteenth plays sixteenth so both teams have plenty on the line. Whichever side wins avoids the spoon, but a win for the Panthers and they could move as high as 11th. The only team the Panthers have beaten in quite a while is the Warriors, while the Knights under Buderus have been good enough to beat the Storm in Melbourne and go close to knocking off the in-form Bulldogs last round. That game was something of a grand final for the Knights, whereas this is a grand final for the Panthers. That could prove the difference as both sides look forward to putting a full stop at the end of what have been very disappointing 2015 campaigns.
Verdict – Panthers by 4
Result - Panthers 30 defeated Knights 12
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – ANZ Stadium
The Tigers could actually win the wooden spoon this year, but it would take a draw in the Panthers/Knights game for that to happen. It probably won't happen. A win and they could push up to 11th instead of 15th, which is something...I guess. The Dragons will probably hold onto 8th place whether they win or lose, but a win guarantees it. Their coach looked fired up after the loss last week and I expect their minds to be on the job. The Tigers put in last week for Farah, Galloway and Richards. I doubt they can replicate it.
Verdict – Dragons by 8
Result - Dragons 32 defeated Tigers 30
North Queensland Cowboys vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday night – 1300SMILES Stadium
If the Storm flogged the Broncos the Cowboys can make the top two with a big win but it's just a maths equation for now. James Tamou is back on Saturday night and the run will do him the world of good before the finals. It took him a while to get his zing back following his last return from injury. There's also rumblings that Michael Morgan could be back sometime soon, and the premiership race gets a lot more interesting if he's in the picture. This particular game is a difficult one to call - neither side has much on the line. The Titans have named an extended bench and it wouldn't surprise me if some of their kids get a run this weekend. The Cowboys are a class above.
Verdict – Cowboys by 4
Result - Cowboys 42 defeated Titans 12
Parramatta Eels vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – Pirtek Stadium
The Raiders got to celebrate with a win in their last home game on Monday night, and I suspect thoughts have already turned to Mad September. Note that Blake Austin and Jack Wighton are both unavailable. The Eels have been competitive in recent weeks and deserve a win - they get their chance in the traditional Sunday afternoon timeslot at their home ground. You can get $1.70 about the Eels if you shop around, and for my money that is very good shopping. Gamble responsibly.
Verdict – Eels by 10
Result - Raiders 28 defeated Eels 24
Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday afternoon – Remondis Stadium
If the Dragons beat the Tigers this game is meaningless to the Sea Eagles. The Sharks on the other hand, have three teams on their tail with better points differentials. If they win they stay where they are, but if they lose they will almost certainly drop out of the top four - the Bulldogs will make certain of that in the hours that follow. I suggested that the Manly campaign looked like it was running out of steam last week and they played that way. The Sharks are in winning form and have too much to lose. Geoff Toovey deserves a nicer finale, but the cards don't always fall the way we'd like them to.
Verdict – Sharks by 10
Result - Sea Eagles 14 defeated Sharks 12
Canterbury Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors – Sunday night – ANZ Stadium
The Bulldogs could still finish fourth, fifth, sixth or seventh this season. By kickoff some of those options may no longer be available to them. Sixth or seventh isn't likely to make much difference - because the result in either case is a game at ANZ stadium against the Bunnies in week one of the finals. The Warriors gave up weeks ago - they may come out with some razzle dazzle early and could jag a try or two (like they did against the Cowboys), but at some point the game gets hard and the Warriors will go soft. Bulldogs 50ish - Warriors 10ish. It would be worse, but Des will start wrapping key players in cotton wool in the second half. Cotton wool stems the bleeding.
Verdict – Bulldogs by 40
Result - Bulldogs 26 defeated Warriors 22
Wally Lewis - round twenty-six selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- BRONCOS vs Storm
- ROOSTERS vs Rabbitohs
- Panthers vs KNIGHTS
- DRAGONS vs Tigers
- COWBOYS vs Titans
- EELS vs Raiders
- SHARKS vs Sea Eagles
- BULLDOGS vs Warriors
Comments
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I think the Titans are specials. When all you can do a week out from the biggest game of your lives is avoid injury and avoid suspension, then winning the game comes a long long third.
Submitted by Johnny Boney on
Hi everyone, my tips this week are:
Storm by 8- Storm to win this one with Hunt not playing for Broncos which'll effect them a lot I think and plus, Stoem desperate for top 4 spot but Broncos are also desperate for top spot but I think Storm here.
Roosters by 25- Roosters to smash Rabbitohs here, though I wouldn't be surprised if ikt's a close game.
Panthers by 10- Battle which loser will be wooden spooners, which I think Knights will get this year.
Dragons by 13- Dragons will secure their finals spot against Tigers here.
Cowboys by 13- Cowboys to get the win at home here.
Eels by 28-Eels to smah Raiders here due to no Austin for Raiders which is why I think Eels will win by more tha I thought before I found out that Austin wasn't playing for raiders.
Sharks by 34- Sharks to thrash Manly here which'll secure their top 4 spot.
Bulldogs by 46- Warriors are shit and will lose their eighth straight which'll be worser than Dragons' seven game losing streak (thank god).
Thank you everyone anmd cheers!!!!!!!
Submitted by a on
Titans are specials - what a load of shit Cowboys will win hands down
Submitted by The Thinker on
Evening football fans,
Just a heads up about the betting offer from our friends at William Hill for round 26 - they're offering us $2.00 about the Roosters beating the Rabbitohs on Friday night. The Chooks are about $1.34 with most agencies so that looks like a pretty fair price to me. Maximum bet at those odds is $25.
The link to the promotion isn't activated just yet but I'll post it here when it does. Stay tuned.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
If Green had any sense, he wouldn't be playing Thurston and half a dozen others. There's nothing to prove and I think he does have sense, and you should see that with the run-on squad.
Although if you do see a full run-on squad then Green is a fool, and although they would probably win, the risk of injury or suspension is there.
Titans will beat only half a Cowboys team that have no interest in hurting themselves, hurting the other team, or winning the game.
Take the $4.25
You won't get that when news breaks about players pulling out at the last minute.
Call that a load of shit all you damn well want.
Submitted by Shanghai on
Hi all,
My tips this week are:
Broncos
Roosters
Panthers
Dragons
Cowboys
Eels
Sharks
Bulldogs
Good luck one and all ......
Submitted by a on
Well Cowboys will win the premreship all the fucking way
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hi everyone,
Newbie’s gotta make it short’n’sweet tonight as he has things to do that can’t wait (unfortunately). To that end, let’s get into it…
Storm - don’t know exactly why, but I’m tipping the Storm Troopers here. The Boss tipping them in a thriller has given me a small spark of confidence.
Roosters - how can I not tip the boys after last week’s awesome effort? Methinks it might be closer than some would think though. Nevertheless the Mighty Chooks will get this done (hopefully).
Knights - it looks very likely that one of these two is gonna be serving up their dinner with a wooden spoon after this weekend. To the fans of that team, just remember there’s only one direction you can go (except for staying where you are) and that’s up. Keep the faith! Knights for me.
Dragons - pretty confident the Big Red V should get this one but not so confident about how many points will be in it.
Titans - Awesome! Someone else besides me think that the Titans might win this. Onya Coach! Two wins in a row gives the Titans a slight sniff in this one. They’ll most probably get smacked senseless but I’ll tip ‘em anyway. Sorry “a” but my roughies have to come in sooner or later and seeing as this is the last round …
Eels - this should be a close one. Going the Slippery Ones ‘cos they’re at home.
Sharks - if my calculations are correct and the Dragons lose by a point and Manly smack the Sharks by at least 61, the Sea Eagles will be playing finals footy. Nah, it’s not gonna happen. Sharks will get this done you would think.
Dogs - sorry JR but your blokes look like they’re gonna have an “annus horribilus”. Chin up, I’m sure there will be lots of chances for them to go Peow! Peow! next year. I hope so. Just wanna see you smile again!
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week people. Cheers.
P.S. Can you buy an entire chess set in a pawn shop? Hmmm…
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Good luck at Suncorp next week, a. I know that North Qld and Brisbane have a healthy dislike for each other, and so I reckon this game won't be anything but a hostile reception for the visitors. Would that be right Thinker?
Submitted by Tailspin on
Very sad that its the last round but bring it on.
Broncos by 6
Roosters by 12
Knights by 10
Tigers by 6
Cowboys by 14
Eels by 12
Sharks by 6
Dogs by 20
And I agree with you coach, Green should rest all the guns and so should Bennett, the positions are not going to change so why take the chance. And yes it is going to be a hard first finals game between the broncs and the boys, looking forward to that, bring it on.
Hey Mr Thinker, are we all doing finals picks, hope so.
Well everyone, hope you all have a great weekend.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Hey Thinker. This is asking for new goalposts but here goes. Try as people might, is there really any hope of catching Tigerholic through just 9 finals games? Forelorn at best. And does Tigerholic deserve to be caught after having such a great tipping year amongst such horrible weekly results? I say declare a winner after round 26 and start a new mini tipping comp for the finals.
Think about your site 'hits' with everyone in?
Up to yourself, Helper, and everyone else what they think about it. .... Wally, you got any thoughts ? ;-)
Submitted by Coach Potato on
...might have to include what you think each team will win by to sort out a winner from the hords of onlookers out there who's love to be a part of it.
Sorry for opening up cans of worms, 8 days before finals. At least they are tasty worms.
Submitted by Rick on
...............................................Great idea in my view.
Submitted by a on
Well how about if we break it down into a league next week
Submitted by Declan_S on
Melbourne
Roosters
Knights
Wests
Cowboys
Parramatta
Cronulla
Dogs
Submitted by The Thinker on
Tailspin,
Yes the tipping and previews and what-not will continue through to the Grand Final.
Coach,
Keep in mind second and third place are still well and truly open to quite a few...and there are reasonable prizes for those spots too.
I'm thinking a mini-comp for the finals (with margins) can take place in the comments section if people are interested.
Little Helper,
I'll just manage it in the comments section - it's not a lot of games.
Betting disclaimer: I managed to throw a decent slice of pie on the Storm to beat the Broncos tonight - at $2.60. They're now $2.15. If I get itchy I could hedge my bet and back the Broncos now - which would guarantee me enough of a return to buy....a pie.
Unless there's a draw.....groan
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Cowboys are playing at home, that's why their coach Green won't rest his players is because people demand to see Thurston. Dude do you blame them ? He's only best player in world right now ... ;-D
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Ok last official thoughts of the season but before I start to ramble, Tigerholic, Unless you are in that dreaded phone booth without internet connection, Well done on nailing the comp this year.
I'm keen for a second season of finals tipping, and I'll be poking around the site until after the new year so bring it on. Might have a chance with less games to go on.
Storm - I agree with Coach. Bennett, Green, and that Roosters guy should put some players on ice for a weekend, even if it is just to sharpen the mental side of their games more than rest tired bodies. The Storm can't afford to rest anyone as the top four gives them a chance to have a nice weekend off if they get up in the first weekend. So full strength Storm against half strength Ponies, it'll be tight but I think the Storm will get up. Also since I can't see a full strength Broncos putting a positive 60 points differential on the Storm, I don't see them stealing the shield.
Roosters - See above. Without Inglis, Luke, Sutton and anyone else I have missed out, the Bunnies will be pushing the can up hill all night, and what a long night it will be. The Bunnies can't lose 7th and they can't jump the Storm. It feels like the top 8 is set and teams may just start to look to next weekend and the start of the posturing.
Knights - Just looking at last starts, its hard to ignore the Knights, they were pipped by the Bulldogs, beat the Storm and the Tigers. The Panthers have only beaten the Warriors in recent times and mad mad mad Monday looms large for both teams. I think that the Knights can go for a nice bus trip, win at pepper and take their time to head back up to Newcastle without the largest stirring implement on the roof of the bus.
Tigers - They did it last week for Robbie, and I think that they can do it again. The Dragons weren't that exciting or useful against the Titans, and when the chips were down, they didn't find their second wind. Tigers to prove that while being a spent force this season they want to start strong next year.
Cowboys - Won't be surprised if the Titans pants the cowboys at home. Dave Taylor is getting some form and they look to have cracked the code, for the last 3 games in Australia. I'll back the Cows to get up, but like the last game I'm not confident.
Eels - Well a complete season where I have tipped the BOYS, I'm happy, well as happy as an Eels supporter can be with our of field rubbish. Last year when we needed to beat a weaker Raiders team we fell at the last hurdle. BA will have the BOYS firing for this game, especially after we got up last week as well. Carn the BOYS. Shame I can't back them in the finals this year.
Sharks - There is really only one way for the Sharks to earn redemption, finish top 4, make the Grand final, and all will be forgiven win or lose. They have played up to their potential in the back half of the season, and they seem to be carrying form when it counts. Not much to say about Manly, come out for the spoil and make the Sharks win or drop down to 5th? That's the best I can see. But my magic 8 ball says "answer uncertain, try again later".
Bulldogs - I'd say blind Freddie could pick this game, at least he would be envied for not seeing the Warriors unravel. It's a shame that when the play they play well, but any other time they check into their accommodation and send the support staff out to play the game. Hope they can find their mojo over the off season and make the top 8 next season.
Submitted by a on
Here are my tips
Broncos by 6 I think Broncos will win to keep their slim minopr premreship hopes alive
Roosters by 10 But tomorrow Roosters will denied the Rabbitohs the minor premiership why because the will beat the under strength Rabbitohs
Panthers by 4 I think Knights will get the dreaded wooden spoon here
Dragons by 8 I think Dragons will take up the final spot in the 8 here
Cowboys by 12 What Titans beating Cowboys as if Cowboys will come into the finals with a madien premreship
Eels by 10 Raiders will leave the shot clock rule with a loss here
Sharks by 14 Sharks will finish up in the top 4 here
Bulldogs by 50 Warriors are shit without Shaun Johnson Bulldogs will flog the to death here
Which would mean in the 1st week of finals
Roosters vs Sharks
Bulldogs vs Dragons
Storm vs Rabbitohs
Broncos vs Cowboys
Also I will be at the Cowboys vs Titans this week
Submitted by Coach Potato on
So if you still want to keep the original comp as is, you could still have a finals comp running concurrently. No need for extra prizes. It's just a bit of fun. Helper doesn't really have to help. As long as tips and in the comments before first game of the week, thats all there is to it. Tips on one page could be in comments too. Hey, instead of margins, what about make it 18 games and include Holden Cup?
Submitted by a on
Yeah good idea coach
Submitted by a on
I like the margins and the holdern cup tipping lets do both
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Anyone else watching The Broncos and Jared Maxwell versus Melbourne?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Bennett rests his half back. Broncos never in it. But there's always next week.
Watchyou gonna do Green?
Submitted by a on
Guess what Cowboys will win
Submitted by The Thinker on
Steel Panther,
I felt the same way, but I accept that my judgement was probably clouded. I'm glad I wasn't the only one.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
The Cowboys will win an early mad Monday.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Godamn Storm. I so godamn hate them :-(
Submitted by The Thinker on
Here's that link I promised earlier - if you are keen to back the Roosters to beat the Rabbitohs on Friday night (paying $2.00 - maximum bet of $25):
http://partners.affiliatesunited.com.au/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a...
Submitted by a on
Broncos vs Cowboys next week
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thinker and Panther, know that the ref-ing would have been in Storm's favour just the same if they had been behind.
They still think it's their job to influence the result. They're ruining this great game, if they haven't already. I'm looking forward to finals, but resigned to know I'll cringe my way through.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
As it stands, as far as the morning news shows, you're a fool Paul Green. You'd rather put your region's first ever premiership at risk just to win a pointless game against the Gold Coast.
What momentum do they need Paul? Broncos don't have any.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Footy Chick the only one in the top 8 to tip the Storm. Gettum out there Chick!
Submitted by a on
Looks like Cowboys will also beat the Broncos next weekend
Submitted by Bob on
Coach Potato, surely your kidding saying the refing was in the storms favour, you must have been watching a completely different game to us all. Sounds like a butt hurt Broncos supporter
Submitted by a on
NO Coach Potato is a Panthers fan and the refs were in favour of the Storm
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Coach did you actually watch the game last night? The penalty count says it all and this kept the Broncos in the match. At one stage it was three tries to nil and only 14-4. Maxwell in my opinion is by far the NRL's worst ref. I don't support either team but it felt like Melbourne weren't getting any of the 50/50 calls. Just how I saw it....
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No Bob, you should read again. What I say is the ref always seems to feel sorry for the team thats behind, gives them free penalties and tries to make it closer. I said if the Broncos had of been winning by 12 you would have seen the same favours given to the Storm. Read slower next time maybe.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
You need to read slower too Panther. Thinker, remember read slower.
Submitted by a on
Yeah read slower
Submitted by The Thinker on
If Cronulla beat Manly their reward is an away game against the Roosters.
If they lose they get a home game against the Rabbitohs.
Submitted by a on
I hope Sharks beat the Roosters in the first week of finals
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
An interesting dilemma, But the away game with the Roosters comes with that sweet second chance, or week off if they get up for the win.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
I backed Broncos and still think some of calls that went Brisbane way were suspect. Also Roosters shutting out Rabbitohs in tonight game. Who saw that coming because cool, I didn't ! Dude ! :-(
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thinker you make rather light of the top 4 giving the winning an automatic Preliminary Final and a second chance + home Final for losing vs the next 4 who play knock out for the whole month.
Panthers did it last year, maybe there's still a ghost or two hanging aroung the SFS come week 1?
Submitted by The Thinker on
Not making light of the top four benefits - just pointing it out.
The Sharks have beaten the Chooks twice already this year...I'm sure they'll go in thinking they can do it again.
Submitted by a on
Sharks can beat Roosters
Submitted by Coach Potato on
..even Panther beat me didn't he?? ..Anyone else watching The Broncos and Jared Maxwell versus Melbourne?
Submitted by The Thinker on
Coach,
Regarding the Broncos/Storm game.
The penalty count was 8-2. The Broncos had 61% of the possession, and with all that they could only score one try.
Their attack was off a little - given Hunt was out and they lost their young replacement that is understandable. I also suspect the Broncos held themselves back in attack a little. I reckon you want to keep some aces up your sleeve going into the finals.
In any case the Storm were very good in defence. Third game in ten days, and they had to work hard on Thursday night. It was a great effort - and Munster is the real deal.
There was one incident where a Storm player took a knock to the head. He stayed down...there were plenty of slow motion replays and plenty of time for the refs to see that contact to the head was made. All the commentators said 'it's going to be a penalty'. There was no penalty.
About 15 minutes later a Bronco went down after contact to the head. It was accidental as the attacker was slipping before contact, but it was contact to the head. That one was a penalty.
Maybe at half-time the refs got together and had a team talk and someone pointed out to them that they got that wrong. The second penalty was getting it right, but it doesn't look good when a similar incident went without penalty minutes earlier.
Anyways....as I said earlier, my judgement was skewed during that game because I had money on the result. Others seem to feel the same way though, and the penalty count supports that view.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Certainly feels hard to get through to people you agree with, and have them understand that.
I saw the game as completely one sided towards the Broncos. Try as they might, decisions going their way couldn't make a dent to the score.
My whole point was the hypothetical situation that Broncos had been 10 or 12 in front, you probably would have seen Storm getting the breaks. Felt like the refs were doing their best to make a close game of it when really it deserved to be another 30-0 score.
Yes Bennett is holding an Ace under the table in Hunt, but not sure if it turns his current hand into a winning one.
Pages