Round eleven selections

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Thursday night – ANZ Stadium

The Englishman almost outnumber the Australians on Thursday night - clearly our nation is in danger of being over-run by pasty white immigrants from the north of England. Stop the boots. Both sides surprised us (in my opinion) with victories last week but (in my opinion) there was more to like in the Rabbitohs victory. Adam Reynolds is a better halfback with Greg Inglis next to him. Perhaps Inglis gets more attention and that gives Reynolds a little more time to do what he does best. Last round was his best performance in quite some time, and Inglis will improve in the playmaking role the longer he stays there. If those two stay fit and in form the Bunnies could even make the top eight. The Dragons victory over the Raiders gave us a dramatic finish but the quality of football leading up to that was barely first grade. They'll need to be better than that. In what I can only assume is a policy change for the NRL the lights at ANZ Stadium will be turned on for Thursday night football this round. The Dragons may spend the first thirty minutes of this game squinting.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4

Result - Rabbitohs 34 defeated Dragons 24

North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

Forgive me for doing a 'Homer Simpson missing the chilli cook-off dance', but I'm pretty excited about this Friday night. I was this close (imagine tiny gap between my thumb and index finger) to being at this game...in the Cowboys box...with free beer and deep fried things... but I'm not. Damn kids and my adult responsibilities. I'm still looking forward to the game though. Even my damn kids are looking forward to this one, and why not? It's the Grand Final replay, and the last three times these sides have met it's been unbelievably good sport. The Broncos won by one in round four. The Cowboys won by one in the 2015 grand final. The Cowboys lost by one last week, but they haven't lost at home all year. Quite frankly, this game deserves a new stadium in Townsville. There's a political opportunity in the lead-up to this game if anyone wants to take it (Bill/Malcolm...are you listening?). The Storm provided a blueprint for beating the Cowboys last week, but can the Broncos forwards repeat the process - certainly the timely return of Blair, Glenn and McCullough helps. The Cowboys just keep naming their best seventeen week in week out - their medical team are on track for some hefty performance bonuses this season. I hope the NSW selectors are considering Lachlan Coote as an 'Origin bolter'...but they probably aren't. I'm leaning the Cowboys way on the basis that Thurston will be primed for a big performance after the frustrating loss to the Storm. That said, they'll all be primed for this one. Compulsory viewing folks - be there or be on your couch.

Verdict – Cowboys by 1

Result - Cowboys 19 defeated Broncos 18

Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday afternoon – Campbelltown Stadium

It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. Friday night brings us rugby league at it's best, then it's a steep and slippery slope down to Campbelltown. The Knights are doing what they can with what they have, but what they have is a squad of kids in a game for men. What doesn't kill them makes them stronger, but signs of strength from the Knights could be years away. The Tigers aren't shooting the lights out either, but there's enough first grade experience in their seventeen to take the points at home.

Verdict – Tigers by 14

Result - Tigers 20 defeated Knights 12

New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday night – Yarrow Stadium

"Where the heckity heck is Yarrow Stadium?" you hear me asking. Good question Thinker. Yarrow Stadium is in New Plymouth. "And where the heckity heck is New Plymouth?" you hear me asking. Good question Thinker. New Plymouth is on the west coast of the North Island of New Zealand. It's probably a good thing the Warriors are taking their freak show carnival on the road so often, because they're in danger of being rail-roaded out of Auckland for good. Blake Austin crawled around in the dark last Thursday, stumbled across his nose and successfully re-attached it to his face. He's playing. The Raiders have named some big units on an extended bench but at least one of them needs to take on the tasks usually left for Shaun Fensom. Without a shard of confidence I'm tipping the Warriors, because the Raiders shot themselves in the foot so many times last week they all get one of those disability parking stickers for their cars. One thing I am confident of though, is points. Unless the weather in New Plymouth is hideous you just know this game is going to end up with one of those 36-32 scorelines at full-time.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result - Raiders 38 defeated Warriors 12

Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday night – Southern Cross Group Stadium

In round nine the Sharks beat the Broncos, and in round ten the Broncos completely dismantled the Sea Eagles. In round eleven I expect the Sharks to completely dismantle the Sea Eagles too. Oddly enough the Sea Eagles were the last team to beat the Sharks way back in round three, but a repeat of that result seems highly unlikely. Their 62-0 win last week was against a poor opponent but this is a team on the rise. Their next major challenge is managing the Origin period of the season - we could have 5 or even 6 Sharks playing rep footy this winter. When you're a very good team that's just one of the hurdles you have to overcome. Let's see how good they really are.

Verdict – Sharks by 14

Result - Sharks 20 defeated Sea Eagles 12

Penrith Panthers vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – Pepper Stadium

I rather bravely suggested the Panthers would finally score more than 20 points last week...and I was right. And I rather bravely suggested the Titans could beat the Roosters on Monday night at juicy odds...and I was right again. By my reckoning, that's two things I got right in round ten, and only a dozen things I got wrong. Genius I say...sheer genius. Speaking of juicy odds, the Panthers are in the top eight and they look set to stay there. They are about to start a run of very winnable games and this is the sort of game a genuine top eight side needs to be winning. Cartwright, Campbell-Gillard and Moylan can all press their claims for an Origin debut. They're $1.28 with the bookies to win this game, toxic odds I say against an under-rated opponent, but I'll be tipping them regardless.

Verdict – Panthers by 4

Result - Titans 28 defeated Panthers 24

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Sydney Roosters – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

The Roosters put the Knights to the sword in round nine, and I suspect the Chooks got ahead of themselves a little on the back of that win. They came back to earth with a shuddering thud on Monday night, and they'll spend the lead-up to this game having a good hard look at themselves. At least I hope they do as I'm tipping them here. When the Roosters beat the Rabbits, Dylan Napa single-handedly took on the Bunnies forwards and won. I think he'll do it again, and I think he'll bring some big chickens along with him. On the back of that, the Roosters backline can outpoint the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are favoured to win, and they should be, but I'm not yet convinced they're the real deal.

Verdict – Roosters by 8

Result - Bulldogs 32 defeated Roosters 20

Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm – Monday night – Pirtek Stadium

42-0. 38-0 and a 15-14 victory over the defending premiers, and the last two victories were away from home. That's fair form for the Storm, and it has me wondering why the Eels are the favourites on Monday night. Craig Bellamy doesn't throw compliments around lightly but he was positively beaming after their last start victory. If they can contain the Cowboys I'm assuming they can contain the Eels. I have a feeling the odds will flip on this game, so if you're thinkering what I'm thinkering you may want to consider backing the Storm at $2.00 while you still can. Gamble responsibly.

Verdict – Storm by 7

Result - Storm 18 defeated Eels 6

Wally Lewis - round eleven selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • RABBITOHS vs Dragons
  • COWBOYS vs Broncos
  • TIGERS vs Knights
  • WARRIORS vs Raiders
  • SHARKS vs Sea Eagles
  • PANTHERS vs Titans
  • BULLDOGS vs Roosters
  • EELS vs Storm

Comments

Baggy_Gee's picture

Ok lets kick this off.

Rabbits - Have to agree with the Thinker, not just because they beat the BOYS last start. I do disagree with Inglis being in the halves, that forward pass he threw for the last try came when he had shuffled out to the centre's. The Dragons might slow the points leak somewhat, but it probably be won in the last 20 and I'm thinking 16 points in a blow out that duds the Dragons of a good first 60 minutes.

Bronco's - Why oh why do they have to play twice? Can't stand to tip either team, and would be very happy for a 0-0 draw at the end of extra time. That said, out of all the teams to head to Townsville this season I'm leaning the Bronco's way to beat them up there. Predicting a balmy 21 degree night, pretty good conditions for a game of football and it WON'T be a field goal the difference. Lets see how Andrew McCollough pulls up with an early return after a Hammy.

Tigers - Just following the money. Matt Ballin is a player I have always rated as a good guy, just lousy luck with injuries. If there was ever a time to tip the Knights it's now, a 62 point thrashing to redeem themselves of, their half back is back, Pauli will give them some straight line running and penetration. Can't work out who to pick as both teams were woeful last week.

Raiders - A team full of points and a team full of points. If you have a crystal ball to know when each team would fire, those would be some of the games you would like to see. Open running football. But both teams have a issue with firing on demand so I'll take the team that is slightly more consistent when it comes to performance. Again, like the first game Saturday, anyone's guess how it will go.

Sharks - Team who scored 62-0 verse a team who lost 30-6. Easy call this weekend, nothing the matter with the Manly team, just the sharks seem to hot for them to handle. Ben Barba has a forward pack creating room for him and that will have some bearing on the result. The loss of Prior to be replaced by Bukuya is a gain in my view.

Panthers - What gets them over the line for me this weekend is playing at home. Peatsy gets a start, (happy/sad moment, he's back on the field, just not for us) and the Titans bushwacked the Roosters well last week. I just keep coming back to the Panthers being at home.

Bulldogs - Which side will we see from both teams? The Dogs did a good job to beat the Tigers, and the Roosters went against the grain to cop a kicking, but as Coach's streaking table will show, (ha pun) the Bulldogs aren't putting together many sequential wins at the moment. At home vs the bottom of the table Roosters, should be a forgone conclusion.

Eels - It's going to be a hard game, our edge defence will be sorely tested and that is where our weakness will be. Brad in the 6 jersey hasn't been to bad, but I would swap both him and Norman around, bring Brad left and put Norman on the right. Might make his kicks slightly more natural and easy, but they weren't to bad Friday night. Nice to see people running off Manu when he pokes his head through the line. Hopefully a close game where the BOYS get home in a late clatter.

mark ashford's picture

Let's hope the Eels/Cap thing is now behind us and we can get some good footy and see who's gunna play SOO.
RABBITS.. Strong showing against the Eels last start
BRONCOS.. Can't not tip my team but very worried
TIGERS.. Even without Robbie (believe he's OK!) should win
WARRIORS.. This tip for the birthday boy JR
SHARKS.. A definite premiership contender
PANTHERS.. Titans have half their team out
ROOSTERS.. I just think their big boppers are better than the Dogs big boppers
STORM.. The quiet achievers this year (sorry Baggy)

If there are any punters out there following my tips PLEASE STOP.
Remember we are told hundreds of times a day to "gamble responsibly" and following my tips is not being very responsible!

mark ashford's picture

Just read a story on NRL The Roar about who the QLders don't want picked for NSW this year.
A lot of Panthers and Sharks appeared on the list.
So come on Thinker bloggers lets do our own lists of who we don't want to play against.
NSW halves...Adam Reynolds and James Maloney both tough as teak and Maloney has been a game winner.
If Laurie picks Pierce and Josh Reynolds then it's QLD 1 NSW 0
Josh Reynolds has cleaned up his game a lot but will certainly brain snap at SOO level and pierce well what can you say.
That'll do for a start lets see what you think.

Coach Potato's picture

Mitchell Pearce. I can see Dogs supporters in your ear with doggy jokes more than you will be able to handle. Pardon the pun !

Coach Potato's picture

2003 and Panthers with a host of great players, Rhyse Wesser (Qld) Ryan Girdler, Luke Lewis, Luke Rooney, Craig Gower, Joel Clinton , Martin Lang (Qld), Luke Priddis, Ben Ross, Trent Waterhouse - yet no Penrith player got picked for a single game. Suited them just fine.

Didn't hurt that Gus Gould was coach. Nice one Gus.

Just need to put your two bobs worth in this week and make sure we get spared again.

mark ashford's picture

Yeah Coach no "doggie" jokes
Somehow I don't think your Panthers will be overlooked this year.
If so then Laurie hasn't been watching the club games. Which I doubt.
You should get two or three in a blue jersey.

Dragonsfan4ever's picture

Hello everyone, I'm now known as Dragonsfan4ever. I was formerly known as Dragons fanboy 2007 but yet again changed my name due to some issue that happened which did involve me trying to add a photo. Anyways the tips for this week are:

Dragons by 1- Dragons to win in a thrilling match by the smallest of margins that you could win by. Unless you are the Knights who if they have a draw at the moment, would be a win for them. Sorry Knights fans.

Cowboys by 4- These types of games are games that will always be a close game. Cowboys and the Broncos, the two heavyweights of this competition at the moment alongside the Storm and Sharks. This is a must-watch game. It'll be a magnificent game filled with class. Yes, that's right, this is going to be a classy game. Cowboys to win though in a tight one.

Tigers by 4- Tigers in a close one. Tigers better then the poor old Knights at the moment.

Warriors by 10- Both teams aren't familiar with Yarrow Stadium, which is the stadium that's going to host the Warriors-Raiders game. Both clubs are going to play their first game at Yarrow Stadium. Warriors are hosting which makes sense due to it being in New Zealand. But instead of playing at Auckland, they've taken this match to New Plymouth. Warriors to get the win here.

Sharks by 32- Sharks are playing unbelievable footy at the moment. Manly too depleted despite having a couple of good players back for this game. Sharks to thrash Manly here.

Panthers by 7- Panthers will be too good in the end.

Bulldogs by 10- These matches are always great matches. An arm-wrestle all the time. But the scores do vary in this match-up. Sometimes you would see a low scoring match which is an arm-wrestle the whole way through and you would also see a high-scoring game with some arm-wrestle in it. For this game between these two great clubs, I'm predicting Bulldogs to win in not such convincing fashion with the score line being 26-16.

And finally the Eels by 8- Eels to bounce back after the heartbreaking defeat of the hands of the Rabbitohs.

Thanks a lot guys. Good luck to your teams this week. Cheers!!!!!!!!!!

Dragonsfan4ever's picture

Oh #$#$ I forgot, happy birthday Johnny Ray on Monday hope u had a great day. I'm so sorry I forgot JR.

Dragonsfan4ever's picture

Oh $#1t* I meant

Tailspin's picture

Hey everyone, hope you all having a good week.
Bunnies by 6
Cowboys by 2
Tigers by 2
Raiders by 4
Sharks by 20
Panthers by 4
Dogs by 10
Storm by 6
Cheers.

Coach Potato's picture

Ahh yes. 7/8. Gotta savour these moments. Its about two weeks tally in one hit for my. My only mistake was to tip the Tigers against Tigerholic. Should never do that. Oh yeah mistake #2. I told everyone to pick the opposite. Sorry to anyone that ended up with only 1/8.

Without further ado..

Coach's who not to tip Round 11 (aka Coach's tips)

1. St George.
Think back to their last meeting round 3. Souths had smashed Roosters and Knights first 2 rounds but the red and white turned this into a dour affair, and it suited them. Dragons, I think you know what to do.

2. North Queensland.
Two teams other than the Cowboys have really tested Brisbane, Sharks and Panthers, so much so, they won. Both were playing at home and we got the sense Broncos were not as invincible away from home. So here we are. All smiles.

3. Newcastle.
It's only a guess as to whether Tigerholic tips Tigers. I don't think so though. I think he takes comfort in the each way bet. I'm with you Tigerholic.

4. Canberra.
Warriors in their history have only 6 wins out of 23 NZ games played away from Auckland. Why is that? I think it's because the Aussie teams go from airport to hotel to stadium. For the Kiwis, though, they actually go on holidays. Two weeks in a row now?!! What chance have they got. It's holiday season.

5. Manly.
Wtf? Yes folks. Sometimes even the likeliest of wins are a loss. It's the reason why everyone doesn't get a perfect round every week. Because sometimes things happen not as they were meant to. All good winning streaks must come to an end. And after all, 4 of the last 7 teams to score 50+ have lost the next week. That's better than a 50/50 chance right?

6. Penrith.
Don't want to win by too much here. Don't want to draw too much attention and have too many players in Origin. Not just in the context of the season, but I reckon that any team with more than a sprinkling of Origin players are the next one's in line to be in trouble with their salary cap. That's if they let the auditors in the door to check of course. A win by anything up to 8 and we shouldn't get noticed.

7. Canterbury.
Can't help but notice the defeated attitudes the Roosters are playing with week after week. Notice their coach after each game with a head like a beaten favourite? Oh? Really? He looks like that all the time? Anyway he's the one before each game revving up the team by downheartedly offering "don't worry fellas, it's only a game".

How ironic, the Chook to get screwed by Poochy.

8. Melbourne.
After such a long week and want so much for that to be lifted by a win, only to lose in the dying minutes, then add another whole week of the blues, then add another few days til the Monday. After all that, can Parra get back off the canvas? Feels more like the Storm will deliver the knock out blow.

Coach Potato's picture

Thinker, why aren't you on the tips on one page thing? I'm sure there's be lots that wanted to compare yours with theirs. No Footy Chick -like innuendo intended.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Does an each way bet on the Tigers/Knights means your backing the Balmain Knights or the Newcastle Tigers?

Coach Potato's picture

Means tip the other team and either you'll be right in the footy tipping or your own team will be the winners. Can't lose.

Coach Potato's picture

Can I , without being too critical, just asking a question - being how it can be that our tips are entered electronically but the scores are then tallied with a broken abacus? Hmmm that does sound more critical than I thought. Ok then will have to call it question / criticism.

Coach Potato's picture

Manly who are openly celebrating their 70th season (1947 - 2016) play Cronulla who are in their 50th season (1967 - 2016) but who refuse to celebrate, a sad indictment of cracks in our education system than any other rational explanation.

Manly celebrating, Cronulla not. I wonder if that's an omen for this weekend's game.

Coach Potato's picture

Plays involving decoy runners. They are in fact illegal. A huge percentage of them anyway.

Throw a pass behind a decoy runner, and the view of the ball through the air is "obstructed". Only for a fraction of a second, but it is. Not accidentally because if it's a set play then it was intentional.

The only exceptions are when the decoy runner fully runs through the line before any pass is thrown, and that's almost never.

#DecoyPlaysAreIllegal

The Thinker's picture

Coach,
I'm on the Tips on one Page page now....just hadn't finished my paperwork.

I'll probably be offline for much of today and tonight.....heading interstate to Bangalow on a bit of a road trip/overnighter.

Have a great weekend everyone.

a's picture

Here are my tips

Rabbitohs by 6 I think Rabbitohs are going to get on top of the Dragons here

Cowboys by 1 should be a cracker here with Broncos to get the game in a thriller

West Tigers by 2 I think Tigers are going to get on top here

Raiders by 1 I can smell a bit of an upset here with the Raiders to win

Sharks by 8 Manly will challenge them but Sharks to win by 8

Panthers by 6 Not sure on this one Panthers to win but only just

Bulldogs by 6 Bulldogs to continue Roosters misery here

Eels by 1 Eels to win in a thriller here

christine's picture

My tips for rd 11 :
souths
cowboys
sharks
raiders
panthers
dogs
tigers
storm

tigerholic's picture

Oh Coach, I just wanted to than you for not tipping the Tigers, mainly because when the Tigers win it will be the first time that I have been on them as winners, and I am so going to love paying out on you for not backing them.

I also note that you have gone the Dragons, how do you see them scoring more points than the Rabbits who are finding some form. My offer is still on the table if you want me to give you a hand.

I see Rocket Ryan has stuck by his ponies this weekend, this was most probably because he would of expected me to jump all over him if he did not tip his own team. I also noted that Rocket held off and held off right until the death to finally put his tips in, maybe next year we should have an order of merit like a reverse table to see who puts their tips in first through to last or last through to first?

Have a great weekend Thinker and everyone else who loves their footy.

Islander's picture

Rabbits
Cowboys
Tigers
Sharks
Raiders
Panthers
Storm
Bulldogs

BigPeteBx's picture

Enjoy that trip Thinker!
R u sure you arent heading to Nimbin..........enjoy the countryside.

Big Pete in Bx

BigPeteBx's picture

My Round 11 Tips for this week are:
Rabbitohs, Cowboys, Tigers, Warriors, Sea Eagles, Panthers, Roosters and Storm

Cheers and Good Luck Tippers - Big Pete in Bx

Rocket Ryan's picture

Just drove past suncorp on my way home and wondered what has happened to eagleeeeeeeeeeees boy come on fortress come out and play you don't have a lot of time there is a nasty shark heading your way.

a's picture

The best player ever will win on his 250th game

Rocket Ryan's picture

Rabbits can't seem to put two good games together

mark ashford's picture

Firstly congrats to Coach for 7/8 must have had an extra drink Coach when you picked those?
Just kidding mate I only got 4/8 so well done.
Rocket its 14 all keep the faith.

Coach Potato's picture

The reason why Souths don't win more games is that they aren't gifted possession nearly as often. Tonight certainly turned back the clock two years in that regard. Thank Christ there are at least some refs who don't fall for Souths crap.

Coach Potato's picture

Please Broncos don't impersonate Souths and think Bunker penalties are the way to go. I know you are coached by Wayne Bennett but try and ignore that fact in the heat of battle and show some integrity. You cheat the cap off the field, you already have an advantage. Can you please play fair on the field? Would be nice to see who the real winner is. If it's Broncos fine. If it was because Milford laid down, I'll need a new tablet.

Baggy_Gee's picture

It is a sad indictment on the game that everyone seems to think that to play in the top flight company you need to comply to the grubbiness that some teams have made their M.O. during the last few years. But the problem is, when you are on the losing side of a penalty counts due to those reasons, its either play their game or lose. I watched (hear that Coach) the last 20-30 minutes last night and with the exception of that try where Dugan got injured there was only one other incident where I was frustrated with the officiating, I can't speak to the first 50-60 minutes. On that try, wasn't that just a schmozzel, If you are allowed to ground the ball with the torso, (I know it was ruled to have come off his groin or there about) can you knock the ball on from your torso in goal or when you roll off it, can someone else ground it for the try?

Steel Panther's picture

What's happened to JR this week? Disgruntled with the refereeing in the NRL or still to resurface after his birthday bash????

Rocket Ryan's picture

I think the broncos will be too good for the cowboys , defending a premiership is never easy, i saw them live last week and the storm were on top in a tough game, cowboys about to lose four or five to origin that will be on thier minds as well Broncos by 10.

a's picture

Cowboys will win tonight

Coach Potato's picture

People don't read very well.
He said he had had enough. Said he was leaving. Played a sad goodbye video and that was it. Not sure why though. Everyone gets tips wrong at the hands of refereeing decisions.

Coach Potato's picture

Alex Johnson . Kirisome Auva'a. Both milked penalties. Both to my recollection ended in Souths tries.

What a horrible attitude to join them if you think you can't beat them. How sad.

Tailspin's picture

It's going to be another great battle between these two top sides and I think the cowboys were off there game last week with a lot of walking and hands on hips, my mate went down to the game last week and he said they looked like they really didn't want to be there, and he is a broncos supporter. I think they will lift in this home game and it will be another awesome bout. Happy days.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Cowboys too good dam we looked home well done cowboys

Tailspin's picture

Hey Rocket, another great game though, as usual

Rocket Ryan's picture

Hope JT is not injured too bad

Coach Potato's picture

Looked home hey Rocket? Only reporting on the first 55 minutes of the game now?

Coach Potato's picture

High pressure moment Hunt fumbles like a school kid.
High pressure moment Milford fumbles like a school kid.

Rocket Ryan's picture

You still up coach

Tailspin's picture

Nice Pick thinker

Coach Potato's picture

High pressure moment Milford has no one within coo-ee, dead in front, 20 out. Can't do it.

Those Broncos just don't like the high pressure moments.

a's picture

Cowboys are the best

Coach Potato's picture

Yeah Nitey night Rocket. Don't want to plant the seed of waking up in a lather after Milford misses again and again and again from point blank. Oops sorry. Seed planted.

Baggy_Gee's picture

What the hell was that penalty for when they took the play back a few tackles leading up to that last cowboys try? If you have played on then that's it princess.

Coach Potato's picture

The fact Broncos and Cowboys had another tight game makes them a class above is a falsehood.

Panthers 23 - Broncos 20
Sharks 30 - Broncos 28
Eels 20 - Cowboys 16
Cowboys 20 - Sharks 14
Panthers 18 - Cowboys 23
Storm 15 - Cowboys 14
Sharks 20 - Panthers 18
Eels 18 - Panthers 20

There's plenty of evidence the Broncos and Cowboys have no mortgage on 2016. Far from it.

Growler's picture

Thinker, I hope you put a lobster on your prediction of a one point win to the Cowboys. You rock, Man. Love and kisses, Growler.

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