Round eleven selections

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Thursday night – ANZ Stadium

The Englishman almost outnumber the Australians on Thursday night - clearly our nation is in danger of being over-run by pasty white immigrants from the north of England. Stop the boots. Both sides surprised us (in my opinion) with victories last week but (in my opinion) there was more to like in the Rabbitohs victory. Adam Reynolds is a better halfback with Greg Inglis next to him. Perhaps Inglis gets more attention and that gives Reynolds a little more time to do what he does best. Last round was his best performance in quite some time, and Inglis will improve in the playmaking role the longer he stays there. If those two stay fit and in form the Bunnies could even make the top eight. The Dragons victory over the Raiders gave us a dramatic finish but the quality of football leading up to that was barely first grade. They'll need to be better than that. In what I can only assume is a policy change for the NRL the lights at ANZ Stadium will be turned on for Thursday night football this round. The Dragons may spend the first thirty minutes of this game squinting.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4

Result - Rabbitohs 34 defeated Dragons 24

North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

Forgive me for doing a 'Homer Simpson missing the chilli cook-off dance', but I'm pretty excited about this Friday night. I was this close (imagine tiny gap between my thumb and index finger) to being at this game...in the Cowboys box...with free beer and deep fried things... but I'm not. Damn kids and my adult responsibilities. I'm still looking forward to the game though. Even my damn kids are looking forward to this one, and why not? It's the Grand Final replay, and the last three times these sides have met it's been unbelievably good sport. The Broncos won by one in round four. The Cowboys won by one in the 2015 grand final. The Cowboys lost by one last week, but they haven't lost at home all year. Quite frankly, this game deserves a new stadium in Townsville. There's a political opportunity in the lead-up to this game if anyone wants to take it (Bill/Malcolm...are you listening?). The Storm provided a blueprint for beating the Cowboys last week, but can the Broncos forwards repeat the process - certainly the timely return of Blair, Glenn and McCullough helps. The Cowboys just keep naming their best seventeen week in week out - their medical team are on track for some hefty performance bonuses this season. I hope the NSW selectors are considering Lachlan Coote as an 'Origin bolter'...but they probably aren't. I'm leaning the Cowboys way on the basis that Thurston will be primed for a big performance after the frustrating loss to the Storm. That said, they'll all be primed for this one. Compulsory viewing folks - be there or be on your couch.

Verdict – Cowboys by 1

Result - Cowboys 19 defeated Broncos 18

Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday afternoon – Campbelltown Stadium

It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. Friday night brings us rugby league at it's best, then it's a steep and slippery slope down to Campbelltown. The Knights are doing what they can with what they have, but what they have is a squad of kids in a game for men. What doesn't kill them makes them stronger, but signs of strength from the Knights could be years away. The Tigers aren't shooting the lights out either, but there's enough first grade experience in their seventeen to take the points at home.

Verdict – Tigers by 14

Result - Tigers 20 defeated Knights 12

New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday night – Yarrow Stadium

"Where the heckity heck is Yarrow Stadium?" you hear me asking. Good question Thinker. Yarrow Stadium is in New Plymouth. "And where the heckity heck is New Plymouth?" you hear me asking. Good question Thinker. New Plymouth is on the west coast of the North Island of New Zealand. It's probably a good thing the Warriors are taking their freak show carnival on the road so often, because they're in danger of being rail-roaded out of Auckland for good. Blake Austin crawled around in the dark last Thursday, stumbled across his nose and successfully re-attached it to his face. He's playing. The Raiders have named some big units on an extended bench but at least one of them needs to take on the tasks usually left for Shaun Fensom. Without a shard of confidence I'm tipping the Warriors, because the Raiders shot themselves in the foot so many times last week they all get one of those disability parking stickers for their cars. One thing I am confident of though, is points. Unless the weather in New Plymouth is hideous you just know this game is going to end up with one of those 36-32 scorelines at full-time.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result - Raiders 38 defeated Warriors 12

Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday night – Southern Cross Group Stadium

In round nine the Sharks beat the Broncos, and in round ten the Broncos completely dismantled the Sea Eagles. In round eleven I expect the Sharks to completely dismantle the Sea Eagles too. Oddly enough the Sea Eagles were the last team to beat the Sharks way back in round three, but a repeat of that result seems highly unlikely. Their 62-0 win last week was against a poor opponent but this is a team on the rise. Their next major challenge is managing the Origin period of the season - we could have 5 or even 6 Sharks playing rep footy this winter. When you're a very good team that's just one of the hurdles you have to overcome. Let's see how good they really are.

Verdict – Sharks by 14

Result - Sharks 20 defeated Sea Eagles 12

Penrith Panthers vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – Pepper Stadium

I rather bravely suggested the Panthers would finally score more than 20 points last week...and I was right. And I rather bravely suggested the Titans could beat the Roosters on Monday night at juicy odds...and I was right again. By my reckoning, that's two things I got right in round ten, and only a dozen things I got wrong. Genius I say...sheer genius. Speaking of juicy odds, the Panthers are in the top eight and they look set to stay there. They are about to start a run of very winnable games and this is the sort of game a genuine top eight side needs to be winning. Cartwright, Campbell-Gillard and Moylan can all press their claims for an Origin debut. They're $1.28 with the bookies to win this game, toxic odds I say against an under-rated opponent, but I'll be tipping them regardless.

Verdict – Panthers by 4

Result - Titans 28 defeated Panthers 24

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Sydney Roosters – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

The Roosters put the Knights to the sword in round nine, and I suspect the Chooks got ahead of themselves a little on the back of that win. They came back to earth with a shuddering thud on Monday night, and they'll spend the lead-up to this game having a good hard look at themselves. At least I hope they do as I'm tipping them here. When the Roosters beat the Rabbits, Dylan Napa single-handedly took on the Bunnies forwards and won. I think he'll do it again, and I think he'll bring some big chickens along with him. On the back of that, the Roosters backline can outpoint the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are favoured to win, and they should be, but I'm not yet convinced they're the real deal.

Verdict – Roosters by 8

Result - Bulldogs 32 defeated Roosters 20

Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm – Monday night – Pirtek Stadium

42-0. 38-0 and a 15-14 victory over the defending premiers, and the last two victories were away from home. That's fair form for the Storm, and it has me wondering why the Eels are the favourites on Monday night. Craig Bellamy doesn't throw compliments around lightly but he was positively beaming after their last start victory. If they can contain the Cowboys I'm assuming they can contain the Eels. I have a feeling the odds will flip on this game, so if you're thinkering what I'm thinkering you may want to consider backing the Storm at $2.00 while you still can. Gamble responsibly.

Verdict – Storm by 7

Result - Storm 18 defeated Eels 6

Wally Lewis - round eleven selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • RABBITOHS vs Dragons
  • COWBOYS vs Broncos
  • TIGERS vs Knights
  • WARRIORS vs Raiders
  • SHARKS vs Sea Eagles
  • PANTHERS vs Titans
  • BULLDOGS vs Roosters
  • EELS vs Storm

Comments

Baggy_Gee's picture

The last 3 games between the Ponies and the Cowboys, the score feels so contrived. 3 straight games and each time only a point. Not buying it.

a's picture

Its Panthers 23 - Broncos 22 coach

mark ashford's picture

Coach only the bookies are claiming Broncs/Cows the best in 2016 and I think that may well change soon.
Both teams have been beaten this year and with SOO around the corner they probably will be again.
The closest of scorelines just indicates that the teams are well matched.
AS your stats show there have been many close games and apart from a couple of struggling teams the comp seems fairly balanced.
OH and before you start your crap about the "cheating Broncos" give it a rest mate...getting a bit boring.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Your not buying what baggy that the teams are that close, you eels have bought everything else .

mark ashford's picture

Sorry Rocket old mate couldn't quite follow what you meant.

Coach Potato's picture

Yeah let's all just forget about it hey Mark? I'm sure Broncos can't wait for the stench to pass.

On the contrary, I say reopen the Broncos case. If they can't produce the records or they are incriminating , either way, they should be in trouble.

Coach Potato's picture

Well done Tigerholic. Your team is clearly 15th best.

mark ashford's picture

Jesus Coach you are one unhappy camper.
The ACCC cleared the Broncs of any wrong doing.
So what are you on about?
Maybe you be sitting on the couch too long or eating too many potatoes.
Lighten up my friend, your Panthers beat my Broncs earlier this year and may again.
Tigerholic your team had a win...that's all you need....a win.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Tigers only a win behind the panthers and dragons tonight need another win next week tigerholic

Baggy_Gee's picture

True a win is a win. We can dissect the win and the players but in the end they get 2 points. Wish I could have heard the game as it sounded like it was closer than the score suggested. But as for teams needing a win, the Knights could do with one to keep the young guys heads up in what will be a bleak season.

Tailspin's picture

Holy #### Coach, surely your not going to pull one out of the bag here, 12 all and eagles on top.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Coach you need to take up your bluebag mate tigerholic on his offer to help you with the tipping comp .

Tailspin's picture

Sorry Coach :(

Coach Potato's picture

Mark, not sure what the (ACCC) Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has to do with the NRL? Maybe you meant the (ACC) Australian Crime Commission. Well they weren't there either. Breaking the salary cap is not a criminal act. Fraudulent and corrupt in every way, but not punishable by law. Nothing the ACC would be dealing with.

The NRL, the only ones answerable to here, decided they could proceed no further because Broncos refused to open the books. If there is a surer sign of guilt than that, I'd like to know. There should have been a harsh penalty to the Broncos for their zero compliance with auditors. There should have been a harsh penalty to the Sharks for their zero compliance with ASADA. What a travesty of justice it would be if one of these teams wins the Premiership any time soon.

The Thinker's picture

BigPete,
Ms Thinker and I went looking for Nimbin once. We couldn't find it....seriously.

Some great little towns in that part of the world.

mark ashford's picture

Coach I suggest you reread the article you kindly referred me to about the Broncs alleged cheating.
Sorry Coach it was the ASIC who investigated not the ACCC or ACC.
This happened two years ago and the final result was that the club had no case to answer.
So unless you can provide some proof I suggest you shut up about it.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Sounds scrappy, how is the game going Coach?

Rocket Ryan's picture

Penrith in afight to the death hope soward does not fumble coach

Rocket Ryan's picture

No need to worry about it coach titans have knocked them off go queensland.

Coach Potato's picture

Lost another fight. Should have been better at the finish. Getting too much practice not to be.

11 games and 11 times you've been in the finish Panthers. Broncos are the only other team that's been in every game. Not bad company. Keep at it Panthers.

Coach Potato's picture

No I won't shut up about it. Watcha gonna do buddy - jump through the computer? I'm entitled to air my opinion just as you are. I don't ask you to agree.

Coach Potato's picture

I have severe doubts it was the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. Really is pathetic to have discussion with people so ignorant of the facts.

Coach Potato's picture

Sorry your right. ASIC was involved. Hehe.

Makes me think someone needs to be investigating ASIC.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Finally a try taken off someone for bad ball handling.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Right call, but what about the tackle without the ball as well.

mark ashford's picture

Hi Coach
Can we please call a truce about the cap thing and concentrate on this years games?
Just watched the Penrith game and surprised at the result. Fair bunker calls on the no trys.
Haven't seen the Panthers make that many mistakes all year.
Are the Titans contenders this year?
And why have the Broncos played the Cowboys twice but yet don't play Storm until round 17?
"a" congrats to your Cowboys the best team won on the night.

Baggy_Gee's picture

What a try, he can really play football. Origin might be interesting

Baggy_Gee's picture

That's a horrible call, playing the man not the ball gets rewarded. Almost as bad as the Jamie Lyon dive to save a try.

mark ashford's picture

Coach if you wanna keep it going you can of course as you said you're entitled to your opinion.
But think of this you are the only blogger here constantly criticising other clubs. Does that make you feel like a big man?
The rest of us just like to talk footy.
Of course I defend my Broncos as any fan would.
Maybe time to give it a rest.

The Thinker's picture

Coach,
Brisbane Broncos Limited is a publicly listed company - hence the ASIC investigation.

mark ashford's picture

Thanks Thinker for the ASIC thing.
Hope you had an enjoyable weekend on the NSW north coast.
Nimbin is a magical place in the hinterland with lots of cool people living their lifestyle.
Maybe Coach needs to go there for a holiday and chill out.
Try it Coach will open your mind.
The people in Nimbin like the Panthers and the Broncos and the Cowboys and the Tigers in fact they like everyone.
Book your ticket Coach and get another look at life.

Tailspin's picture

Bloody Panthers, I just can't figure them out. Too many mistakes. Anyway, another QLD team climbing the ladder which is awesome, keep up the good work Titans.

Coach Potato's picture

Mark, when your angry about something it's important to vent. I think things have been swept under the carpet with some teams, and now Parra is paying the price for letting auditors in the door. I'm angry at Parra and I think they should be punished. But I am also angry that other teams are getting away with working the same scam. I'm angry. When your angry, you need to vent.

Ok so now back to the footy. Dear oh dear Sydney Roosters.
This week's Streak Tables are very telling. No surprise that Newcastle are on the verge of hitting the magic 10 in losing streak (condemning them to a bottom 4 place), but so too are the Roosters. Lose next game, and they too will hit the magic 10. To think we are not even half way into the season. How the mighty can fall.

The winning Streak Table is also of interest. Sharks hit No. 1 but should Storm have a win over Parra tomorrow, they would join the Sharks on 8. This pushes Broncos be back to 3rd. That slight change feels significant .

Parra charting like a top 8 team, although realistically they are no chance from here.

Bulldogs and Gold Coast looking finals contenders. Gold Coast?

Souths, Canberra, Warriors, Panthers, Manly not doing nearly enough at the moment.

WinningStreak score.....LosingStreak score

1.SHARKS 8--------0
2.BRONCOS 7--------0
2.STORM 7--------0
4.EELS 5--------0
4.COWBOYS 5--------0
6.BULLDOGS 4--------0
7.DRAGONS 4--------4
8.TITANS 4--------5
9.RABBITOHS 4--------6
10.PANTHERS 2--------2
11.RAIDERS 2--------4
12.SEA EAGLES 2--------5
13.WARRIORS 2--------5
14.TIGERS 2--------6
15.ROOSTERS 0--------9
15. KNIGHTS 0--------9

a's picture

I want to see all 3 QLD teams in the finals

Steel Panther's picture

Concentrate on this years games? Mark....you're asking way too much. I seldom comment on here anymore but I can't read properly anyway.....

Rocket Ryan's picture

Coach slip down to the panthers Academy today and interrupt the field goal training and teach them how to dive on the ball after a knock on ,just a suggestion of course.

tigerholic's picture

Coach

What happened to the Panthers? What's the difference between the Tigers and Panthers?

Answer- Tigers won this week, yippee. I'm still available to be your tipping mentor coach, I do have some credentials and experience in the field.
Don't take any crap from Rocket either, he is nothing but a shit stirrer.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Wow i like the blues origin side, they will be sure to win a game this year with Moylan and Reynolds named who else do we have ,ah no surely not is that farrah and maloney what the f....................

The Thinker's picture

Storm were $2.00. Now $1.75.

I'm glad I got something right this round. Now they just have to win.

mark ashford's picture

Despite what my friend Rocket says I think Laurie has picked a very good team. Farrah and Maloney have plenty of SOO experience. I remember that try Maloney scored to break the Maroons spirit.
Gallen, Klemmer, Bird, Frizelle and Fiffita will bring plenty of mongrel and grunt up the middle.
Adam Reynolds is in great form, adding another kicking option.
The Penrith boys add that new factor and can be game breakers.
Cordner, Morris, Dugan and Ferguson all have great speed and can find the line
Should be an interesting series.

Rocket Ryan's picture

We don't want friends Mark hitem hard.

Tailspin's picture

QLD to win once again.

Rocket Ryan's picture

You got it tailspin they have no players like JT

Coach Potato's picture

Rocket, should I ask if Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford can join that ball handling session ?

tigerholic's picture

Good point Coach, Milford especially with no pressure at all misses a sitter to level the scores. I reckon he had a bet on the outcome in normal time.

Let me say thanks to everyone for their comments and banter this week, even before the Eels go down to the Storm and given what the grub Cameron Smith seems to be getting away with, I am so looking forward to state of origin.

I hope you all have a great week ahead, thanks for a great site Thinker.

Coach Potato's picture

Happy for Moylan and Mansour. Disappointed for Cartwright. To think they went for the skillless Frizzell. Cannon fodder anytime he gets the ball I reckon.

A bye before the first two Origins so no impact on the Panthers til game 3. Only risk is injury. Reward is big though. Get through the next two months and they come out the other end better players. It's no coincidence that teams playing through September have Origin stars. It's no coincidence that teams without Origin stars don't.

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans,

I've updated the tipping comp and the NRL ladder. Nik joins Rick at the top of the table - unless I've stuffed up the scoring again. Note the effort of Tailspin in a tie for third even though he missed a round.

I'll have the round 12 page published tomorrow night for those that need to tip early, and I'll add my previews and selections by lunchtime Wednesday.

Note that I'll also publish a preview for the first State of Origin game - but these games won't be included in the tipping comp - they are simply there to give us all a platform to hurl interstate abuse at each other....in a friendly sort of way.

All the best

a's picture

QLD will win again☺️

Baggy_Gee's picture

FARK. Why!!!!!!!!!!! Great play from the BOYS in patches, but our non existent edge defence has sunk us again. Well it's good bye to the top eight. Rusty in attack is the best way to describe the night, Jennings thinking about his blues jersey, to many forced offloads. I wonder if we drop Jennings completely if they would allow us Peats back. Only one try that I disagree with and that was the double movement one, ball grounded and then the arm sneaks forward. No momentum in the arm, but we deserved the loss, we played away from our strengths and were beaten by a better side.

Coach Potato's picture

Broncos now back to 3rd in streaks.

I wonder how many Queenslanders would appreciate a Grand Final @ Suncorp hosting the Sharks v Storm ?

Anyone up north prepared to answer this NRL scruples question?

(Bloody wankers!)

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