Round four selections

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

Plenty of people are having a go at Greg Inglis after his field goal attempt against the Dragons, but he was just trying to make a point. Ow......my sides. No doubt GI will be keen to make amends after his mathematical miscalculations but he is, much like the value of a field goal, just one man. One other man, the great Terry Lamb, will be at the ground on Friday to remind Greg that he's not alone...even if it feels like it. The Bulldogs pack is the last pack of forwards you'd want to be facing without your best forward, and the Bunnies best forward is clearly Sam Burgess. Paul Carter is also an unlikely starter despite being named. It seems almost indecent to tip against the Bunnies over the Easter long weekend but I'm backing my barking dogs again. Can you buy a beer at the footy on Good Friday?

Verdict – Bulldogs by 2

Result - Bulldogs 42 defeated Rabbitohs 12

Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

It's pretty amazing that the Cowboys still have the same seventeen that won them the 2015 premiership. It's also pretty amazing that the same seventeen have been available to play every game so far this season...including this one. For those living on one of the outer planets of our solar system (Manly fans mostly) this game is a replay of the 2015 grand final which was, to be perfectly frank, a bloody good game of football. We can't possibly reach those dizzying heights again, but we can, to be perfectly frank, get bloody well near it. Don't forget that the last time these sides met at Suncorp was close to the high water mark for season 2015 (and yours truly got to sit right next to the Broncos bench for that game...ah sweet memories). Jack Reed is out on Friday night - not a bad idea as it was probably his defensive lapse in the grand final that let the Cowboys square things up in the final minute. Ben Hunt, on the other hand, must play through his demons. I'm a little bit surprised by the price on offer for the Cowboys. Surely this game is a toin coss, and no-one should give you $2.40 for heads. I'll take heads, and hope that the wise old heads of Thurston, Scott and company prevail.

Verdict – Cowboys by 1 (you heard me...by 1)

Result - Broncos 21 defeated Cowboys 20

Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday afternoon – GIO Stadium

Whenever I see that the Raiders are a short-priced favourite I shudder - their capacity to lose when people expect them to win is a little bit legendary, and one of the main reasons Ricky Stuart is such a cranky little so-and-so. Yes they were good against the Panthers in round one, but since then they've beaten the Chooks by a point and drawn with the Knights...and that doesn't exactly read like strong form to me. The Titans haven't won away from home this year but their two wins at home were impressive enough. Kudos for halfback Ashley Taylor whose been in great form even though he still looks like he's 14 years old. I spruiked him at the start of the season but I didn't expect him to rise to the challenges of first grade so quickly. Losing Cherry-Evans and Sezer could prove to be a blessing in the end. The Titans at crazy and tempting odds to cause one of those early season upsets we get to see so often in this competition. Ricky Stuart to be a cranky so-and-so, another thing we get to see so often in this competition.

Verdict – Titans by 2

Result - Titans 24 defeated Raiders 20

Sydney Roosters vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium

In my 2016 season preview I was kinda joking when I said the Roosters might run last this year, but that joke isn't funny anymore. Absolutely nothing is going right for the tricolours this season. To make matters worse, the Sea Eagles appear to have finally found some form. They found themselves in a deep shark-infested hole on Monday night but they never panicked, pulled themselves out and ended up winning convincingly. I can't see Taupau lining up for the Sea Eagles but Jamie Buhrer returns to plug the gap. And make sure you have a good look at Eloni Vunakece for the Chooks when he comes off the bench - he's pretty funny looking.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 10

Result - Sea Eagles 22 defeated Roosters 20

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers – Sunday afternoon – WIN Stadium

We had a few surprise winners in round three, and here's two of them. The Dragons and Panthers dragged themselves off the bottom rung of the ladder with gutsy victories over high-flying opponents on the top rung of the ladder. Clearly the Panthers have more points in their backline than the Dragons, and the team that scores the most points wins (just ask Greg Inglis). I have no idea what sort of weather we'll be playing in on Sunday afternoon, but we're in an El Nino pattern so I'm assuming sunshine. If it's wet I'd probably like the opportunity to pick again.

Verdict – Panthers by 2

Result - Dragons 14 defeated Panthers 12

New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights – Monday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

If Jesus truly rose on Easter Sunday you can be sure and certain he wasn't getting up to watch this. Take your kids fishing. Mow the lawn. Take your kids mowing. Anything but this.

Verdict – Warriors by default...and by 10

Result - Warriors 40 defeated Knights 18

Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels – Monday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

The Eels were my sneaky pick for a finals berth this season, but after the first game of season 2016 I decided I was wrong. Two more games later, and I'm starting to think I was wrong to think I was wrong, and that I may have been right all along (I haven't made that very clear). Foran and Norman works, the Fijian winger is racking up plenty of meat pies to shore up his citizenship status and that pack of Eels forwards is actually playing like a pack of forwards. Conversely, I'm concerned that the Tigers are about to replicate their performance in season 2015 - which started with so much promise but then wilted as the long campaign wore on. Farah returns, but whether he is an asset or a liability these days is currently up for discussion. I'm with the Eels, but this could prove to be one of the games of the round. If you only watch one NRL game on Monday afternoon make sure it's this one. Hopefully Jesus hasn't given up on the NRL after the Warriors/Knights debacle. With luck, he'll plonk himself on the couch, finish off the kids Easter eggs and wonder out loud what Andrew Voss did to upset all those hard heads at the Nine Network. God knows JC. God only knows.

Verdict – Eels by 10

Result - Eels 8 defeated Tigers 0

Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm – Monday night – Shark Park

Whether you like them or not the Storm are far and away the most consistent side in the NRL. While they haven't been at their best they are undefeated and have gradually improved with each game. Last weekend against the Warriors they completed 89% of their sets and I think their best is still in front of them. If the Storm got off to the start the Sharks had on Monday night against the Sea Eagles there is no way known they would have let that game slip, and that's what separates the purple machine from the also-rans..they know how to get the job done. Clearly the Sharks can win this game (the bookies certainly think so) but the overall head-to-head record (9 wins from 29 games) tells me this is a team the Sharkies don't like to play.

Verdict – Storm by 1

Result - Sharks 14 defeated Storm 6

Wally Lewis - round four selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • Rabbitohs vs Bulldogs
  • Broncos vs Cowboys
  • Raiders vs Titans
  • Roosters vs Sea Eagles
  • Dragons vs Panthers
  • Warriors vs Knights
  • Tigers vs Eels
  • Sharks vs Storm

Greg Inglis Field Goal Attempt - Brain Explosion! #NRLDragonsSouths

Comments

Johnny Ray's picture

Also congratulations goes out to Tailspin and Rocket Ryan and Rick for calling Titans game right wih Rick so far 4 from 4 in this round. That's some Godamn impressive shit from Rick ... :-)

Coach Potato's picture

The Roosters have the biggest streak of the year and sadly for them it's a losing streak, and it's getting big. Streak theory says three losing streaks totalling 10 or more and that condemns a team to finish bottom 4.

The other unmentioned factor in all this is the Pearce suspension. Not a huge fan of Pearce but he tries hard, and with that influence alone I doubt they would be sitting 0/4 at this stage. Round 9 he will be back playing, and Round 11 they play the Dogs. Very doubtful he gets to screw the Pooch again.

Tailspin's picture

Gee, thanks Johnny Ray, just a shame about me Cowboys and that I missed the first round, but slowly catching up

Tailspin's picture

Yeh Coach, I agree but the biggest loss for them at the moment is Jared Waerea Hargreaves, the big go forward man. Does anyone know when he is due back?

a's picture

The refs have been terrible this weeken they cost me 3 tips I hate the refs

And by the way Titans could lose the points for having 14 man on the field

Baggy_Gee's picture

But even if the Titans get bounced for too many men on the park, or falsifying concussions, the round will be long gone and as good as the Thinker is to us I doubt that he will back date the tips.

The biggest problem with ref's is not the fans/clubs, its the morons in the media i.e. Paul Kent. they bleat on about how they are doing this and that, Most fans want a good game where the ref is just a guy on the field keeping the game running, not 14th man for the side that won eg. Friday night at Suncorp.

Coach Potato's picture

Fairly telling how some teams around have a few players out and they suddenly become a rabble. Makes the Panthers 2014 season pretty impressive. A dozen players out and still made it to the Prelim. At least Panthers know if they are down a few players, they aren't shot. We just beat Broncos without Moylan, Segeyaro, and Whare. Welcome back to those guys in the weeks to come and until then, just get on with it.

Baggy_Gee's picture

But we saw with Sam Burgess being out that one man can break a football team. I am fearful about the Eels whenever Peats or Foran are out, there is defiantly more to some players than statistics. I think that is why the Panthers to name a side still did fairly well, the players who inspire, encourage, are that constant voice in both offence and defence were there to drive them over the line. I also think that there are a few sides that have lost that voice, Warriors, Knights, Broncos (to an extent) are all a team without a voice, or positive team culture.

christine's picture

Thanks everyone for your comments all I did was make an observation about wally's tips not being in .

Coach Potato's picture

Hang on there. I merely pointed out that Wally's tips were actually in.

Sorry if you read any offence into that. Please let me know if there was some other way of reporting the correction and can use this wording next time.

Steel Panther's picture

The Roosters current streak should end next week as they play the Warriors.....relief is in sight for the Tricolours......

Johnny Ray's picture

Yeah ... thanks for that Steel Panther. Knights are currently paying $6.50 to beat NZ Warriors tomorrow 12 and under. You're anything like me you'll want to get on it .. :-)

christine's picture

Coach I wasn't just referring to you , it's ok all is good .

christine's picture

Now I just need panthers , eels ,sharks , warriors , to win .

christine's picture

Depends how the warriors play today as to how they will go against roosters next week , i'd be checking those odds .

Coach Potato's picture

Hopefully Sharks can end the Storm's streak tomorrow. 4 wins in a row (and counting) would be almost halfway to a top 4 spot. Who wants that?

Coach Potato's picture

Wouldn't be too quick to lay money on the Roosters to beat Warriors. They haven't beaten anyone yet either (Although what was wrong with the last Rooster try except for the ref's initial call?) Feels like I tipped the right team again and got zip.

Coach Potato's picture

The WIN crowd are going to boo Merrin, and they already boo Soward. So every set we have the ball we are going to get booed.

Create the us versus them siege mentality if you like. Hearing boos every 2 minutes, I reckon it would only fire a team up. Thanks Dragons fans, could be just what we need!

Coach Potato's picture

FFS Bunker get it right it was a friggin head clash and he dropped the ball. I dont care if it was in my team's favour. Why can't you overrule the ref? You did it if it leads to a try.

Coach Potato's picture

Well done Dragons. Anyone's game in the end. Panthers still only 1/4 for a team that has competed so well each game. The only other teams that have competed for all 4 games are at the top of he table.

Get Moylan back on the park fast. Will Smith is Liability - Capital L.
The other move I would make have Te Maire Martin actually play number 6. Not just wear number 6. He got the ball less than last week playing at centre. Two sublime passes in the last play of the game. Gotta get this kid into the game.

moi moi's picture

Where do you find head to head stats on teams like you have for the sharks vs storm Mr Thinker

Coach Potato's picture

Gotta say, with all these flip of the coin games going down to the wire, I just hope we aren't all being taken for a ride, under the same spell that has WWF fans hootin and a hollerin'. Having us believe what's real is only well scripted entertainment to generate pay TV dollars. A number of convincing wins would start putting my mind at ease. The opposite would not.

Rocket Ryan's picture

My easter break has ended too soon back to work tomorrow Coach the panthers have a lot of work to missed a lot of tackles back line lacked depth in attack often Broncos would of put a cricket score on them this week

Coach Potato's picture

● October 2014, the Titans are fined $300,000 and docked 4 competition points. Fine is reduced by $75k, and points lost wiped because Titans were compliant with auditors (!?!)

● Titans posted a $4.9m loss for the 12 months to the end of the 2014 season.

● The NRL issued the Titans $2.35m in “emergency funding” between September and December 2014 and paid two monthly club grants in advance totalling $1.28 million in the same period. (Emergency fine payment funding?!!)

● The club had $246,403 cash in bank accounts, of which only $68,092 was recovered by administrators due to eight finance leases for motor vehicles.

● Their greatest asset was “goodwill”, valued at $10.6 million.

● They owed the Australian Taxation Office $273,671.

● February 2015, the NRL takes control of, and becomes sole shareholder of the Titans entity.

● March 2016, the Titans are fined $5000 for an on field interchange mixup.

C'mon NRL. Who's paying ?

Such a conflict of interest I can't believe it's allowed to continue.

Coach Potato's picture

Who's to know this Rocket Ryan? The only fact remains last Sunday's sport news.

a's picture

Paul Gallen could be playing tonight

Baggy_Gee's picture

Point 1, was the point loss for salary cap breaches?

Coach Potato's picture

Yes. Baggy. Was part of the salary cap fine but was not imposed due to Titans kind assistance in uncovering their rorts.

My post was not my own, was straight from the Courier Mail. I only added the recent $5000 fine which the NRL owes itself.

Why is everyone out there so hush hush about the NRL and the Titans?

http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/nrl/gold-coast-titans-salary-cap-ror...

Baggy_Gee's picture

Good so just to finish my point, does this mean that there is a precedent that allows the BOYS to avoid the loss of points because we have a new board and have danced through the NRL's hoops? Just thinking that people are pushing for the point loss a bit hard (Paul Kent, Daily Moron)

Coach Potato's picture

Sorry to say my examples of precedents haven't been any influence on the future.

Coach Potato's picture

Boy oh boy. Bunker interpretation of ball control has reverted back 15 years. You can lose control and regain control with fingertips before ball hits the ground. Forgive me for thinking this interpretation was thrown out years ago.

Coach Potato's picture

I thought the Bunker was an improvement until it reveals itself week after week to make decisions which 95% of viewers wouldn't make. That to me is not improvement, that to me is status quo.

christine's picture

I know why we need refs , We need refs to break up any on field fights because the bunker can't do it & that is the only reason we need refs & coach even matt johns said tonight that the bunker is meant to speed the game up but it's doing the opposite it's only slowing it down .

Coach Potato's picture

If technology hasn't got rid of the ifs and buts, if it raises as many questions as it answers, then it would be just as efficient to let technology go and let the game go back to on-field decisions alone.

I know the NRL has over-invested far too much to go back on the Bunker, but I say, let the refs make the odd mistake and get back to the good old days of an 80 minute game. They still get it just as wrong now, and frustratingly with 8 cameras and super HD slow-mo, so maybe just as well to piss it off.

a's picture

Bunker was shit this round I throught it was good at 1st but they made to many crap decisions this week

The Thinker's picture

Evening folks,
I've updated the tipping comp following the completion of round four. Top score for the round was 7 from 8 - well done to you all...and there were quite a few of you.

Wally Lewis and Rick hit the lead at this stage of proceedings - note that Tailspin is working his way through the pack despite missing an entire round.

I'll have the round five page published late tomorrow night, and I'll have my previews and tips published sometime on Wednesday morning.

All the best

Tailspin's picture

Thanks Thinker, looking forward to the next round, ye ha.
Go the Cowboys.

christine's picture

6/8 this week puts me also on 20 points .

a's picture

Here is the updated ladder for the people who are not in the tipping comp

Islander 19

The_NRL_Whisperer 17

parrafan 16

BigPeteBx 15

Dragons fanboy 2007 15

Raiderpete 11

Annonymous 7

This puts Islander on top follow by The NRL Wisperer but it still anyones game

Coach Potato's picture

Hey Christine, could you share your tips before each round like everyone else? If you are worried about someone copying you for some reason then just post them just before kick-off first game, just because I think if I see how well someone does once more without the proof, my tablet is going to get a hugest crack in the screen. #PleaseHelpSaveCoach'sTablet

Dragons fanboy 2007's picture

Thanks 'A' for making us non-tipsters feel like we are part of the team with making up a ladder for us. I'm doing alright just a bit of improvement then I'll be right.

Dragons fanboy 2007's picture

I hate to say this, but to show that my good sportsmanship, I'm going to have to say that you got the calculations for my tally. I've actually got 14.
Round 1-5
Round 2-3
Round3-2
Round 4-4

Cheers mate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dragons fanboy 2007's picture

And by the way, that last comment was for you 'A' just reminding you.

a's picture

Thanks for your good sports Dragons fanboy 2007 I have recluated the ladder and here are the scores

Islander 19

The_NRL_Whisperer 17

parrafan 16

BigPeteBx 15

Dragons fanboy 2007 14

Raiderpete 11

Annonymous 7

tigerholic's picture

Evening Folks
Hope everyone had a great Easter break and you all returned safe and well. I spent easter at Gordon Country which is out towards Warwick in QLD. Well done to those who got more than 5 correct tips, still some way to go.
Hey Coach, I hate to admit this but after listening to the Raiders Titans game and especially the last 2 mins, the bunker has let me down badly. The ref did not or could not see the ball on the ground for the winning try but still went upstairs with his thoughts that it was a try, fair dinkum if we can't get decisions right with this new fancy unbiased system, what do we have to do.

I read where the NRL boss has defended the bunker saying that it is working as it was designed to do, what planet is he on??

I suggest that we scrap the ref having to have an opinion before making his referral to the bunker, this has proven to be a major floor and we have seen the results.

Coach, you are also right about losing control of the ball when going for a try, I think it was one of the games yesterday where the player clearly lost control of the ball only to reattach his fingers as it hits the ground.

Plenty to talk about, even my Tigers did not play that bad in a losing match, have a good week.

Coach Potato's picture

All said and done surely the biggest thing going on is the Titans getting fined and the NRL paying itself. Does noone else care, or for some reason scared to say what you think?

Well done Dragonsfanboy2007 and rest of the red V. Bit lucky though. That kickoff sails an extra foot left and out on the full,would have been ours. Maybe Soward eat his pride and gives goal kicking tee to Wallace and we win a bit handier. Oh well. Parra next. Feels like one dog fight after the next. Hope people don't forget, we've fought a good fight for four straight weeks.

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