Brisbane Broncos vs Canberra Raiders – Thursday night – Suncorp Stadium
I said it once before but it bears repeating - the Raiders are not my friend. They were patchy last round, at times brilliant and at other times scrappy, but it was good enough last week against the Sea Eagles. Note that the Sea Eagles were down to one player on the bench for the last 20 minutes, and played most of the second half without Cherry-Evans, Lyon and Lawrence. We'll need more of that Raiders brilliance this time. The Broncos, in recent weeks, haven't been my friend either, with three losses from their last four starts. Sam Thaiday started the season on the bench, but he's gradually worked his way to the front of the scrum. Travis Waddell has big shoes to fill in the weeks ahead - I imagine he'll take a simple game plan into the match and let Milford and Hunt dance their dance. As a rule I take on the Raiders away from home, particularly against the better sides. Their record at Suncorp in recent years isn't great either.
Verdict – Broncos by 4
Result - Broncos 26 defeated Raiders 18
Wests Tigers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – ANZ Stadium
I'm not sure which side has the tougher back-up. The Rabbitohs return from an extra-time loss in Perth while the Tigers never looked likely in the heavy going in Sydney. It looks like Robbie Farah is playing on Friday night but who really knows - surely Farah-gate is having a de-stabilising effect on the club. The Tigers usually win without Farah but that didn't happen against the Chooks. They usually lose with him so let's see if they can defy recent history again. Oddly enough, the only game the Tigers have won with Farah this year was in round nine against (you guessed it) the Rabbitohs. They won that game without Woods, Grant and Moses and with Lawrence playing in the halves. Despite that the Tigers are rank outsiders and I think they're backable (mind you I said that last weekend). I haven't had much luck tipping outsiders in recent rounds but here I go again.
Verdict – Tigers by 2
Result - Tigers 30 defeated Rabbitohs 14
Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday afternoon – Hunter Stadium
Clearly my criticism of the Warriors last week was the wake-up call they needed, as the greatest enigma in sport burst into life and played the type of spirited football we all wish they could deliver every week. Was the win over the Broncos a one-off or are the Warriors about to start one of those mid-season runs we often see during 'Origin season'? I doubt we'll be much wiser after this game, because even a lack-lustre Warriors should be too good for the rebuilding Knights.
Verdict – Warriors by 16
Result - Warriors 50 defeated Knights 14
Parramatta Eels vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday night – TIO Stadium
One of these teams is facing a crisis, and it's not the Gold Coast Titans. Most of us had them pegged as wooden spooners this season, yet here they are in the top eight. Meanwhile the Eels lurch from one drama to the next. Their marquee signing looks more like a used tent right now. Foran is out for the season with injury, welfare issues and legal battles to contend with. Corey Norman might not be far behind. Eels coach Brad Arthur appears to be the only one holding the club together on and off the field. It has to be a distraction, and to add to the madness he's got an interstate trip to the Top End to manage. Titans...specials.
Verdict – Titans by 10
Result - Eels 22 defeated Titans 12
Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium
Roosters fans (and you know who you are) may be rejoicing after the solid win over the Tigers on the weekend but I'm here to give you all (and you know who you are) a dose of reality. The Chooks have won three games this season, and the teams they've beaten are currently 10th, 14th and 16th on the ladder. This Saturday night they take on a team at the top of the tree. The purple machine hasn't lost a game since round six and they won't be losing this either. That said, I'm looking forward to the battle of the forwards. Waerea-Hargreaves is improving with each performance and he and Napa will be licking their lips as they prepare to take on the biggest pack of forwards they are ever likely to face. Note that the Storm snared two handy signatures during the week - Addo-Carr from the Tigers and Asofa-Solomona has kept the All Blacks away and stayed purple. It's only a matter of time before Cronk commits to a life in purple too. The Storm are $1.50 to beat the Chooks. It's a gift.
Verdict – Storm by 13
Result - Storm 46 defeated Roosters 0
Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers – Sunday afternoon – Brookvale Oval
The Panthers record at Brookvale is poor, but the Sea Eagles record at Brookvale this season is even worse. They've won just once at home this season and that was way back in round three. That said, their last two losses at home were to the Broncos and the Cowboys, and I'd argue the Panthers are a rung down from that level. Both sides bring inexperienced halves combinations to this game. The Panthers have gone with a couple of Generation next-ers with Cartwight (not John) and Cleary (not Ivan) while the Sea Eagles are giving Koroisau and Walker another chance. These Sunday afternoon games at Brookvale used to pick themselves but not this season - I'll take the Panthers, but not confidently so. The Sea Eagles with the handicap start may tempt me.
Verdict – Penrith by 2
Result - Panthers 31 defeated Sea Eagles 24
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Monday afternoon – ANZ Stadium
This is the second game at ANZ Stadium this round where the away team is playing at their home ground. I've struggled to get a read on both these sides this season but the Bulldogs went within a whisker of beating the Sharks last Monday night. A repeat of anything like that performance and they'll be too good this Monday night.
Verdict – Bulldogs by 4
Result - Bulldogs 34 defeated Dragons 16
Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys – Monday night – Southern Cross Group Stadium
We're saving the best for last this round. Michael Morgan returns for the Cowboys and both sides have effectively named their best seventeen. These sides met in round one where the Cowboys prevailed 20-14 in an even contest. Both sides have improved since that performance but most of the Cowboys best efforts have been at home. They've won just two from six away games this season, and those wins were against sides outside the top eight. Meanwhile the Sharks have won eight games in a row and haven't lost at home all season. They beat the Storm at home. They beat the Broncos at home, and I think they'll beat the Cowboys at home. You don't need me to tell you, but it's the game of the round.
Verdict – Sharks by 2
Result - Sharks 13 defeated Cowboys 10
Wally Lewis - round fourteen selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
- BRONCOS vs Raiders
- Tigers vs RABBITOHS
- Knights vs WARRIORS
- Eels vs TITANS
- Roosters vs STORM
- Sea Eagles vs PANTHERS
- Dragons vs BULLDOGS
- Sharks vs COWBOYS
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Morning Tiger,
I see what you're thinking.
Moylan reminds me of a young Darren Lockyer - he may end up in the halves one day, but I like him at fullback for now. And asking him to play out of position in the halves, in a must-win Origin game at Suncorp....big ask of a young man.
The only change I would make to the NSW spine is Ennis for Farah...but sadly it's not up to me.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Coach,
re: the Paul Gallen thing
I'll elaborate a little. Gallen has been at Cronulla a while now - this is his 16th season in fact. So we can look back on 15 seasons of Cronulla with Paul Gallen to see how they've gone while he has been there.
He debuted in 2001, and this is close to their best year this century. They finished 4th on the ladder and made a Preliminary Final (but lost). Note that Gallen played just two games in 2001.
Since then they've finished in the top four once in fourteen seasons. In 2008 they finished third...but that's in the middle of the Peptide regime. They again made the Preliminary final which they lost 28-0 at home.
They are the only seasons they got to the Prelimary finals, and they've missed the finals altogether on eight occasions.
The difference this season isn't Paul Gallen, because he has been there forever. The difference is the new recruits that are playing well (Maloney, Ennis, Barba) and some young guns coming through (Bird, Holmes).
If they win this season, which could happen, it will be in spite of him rather than because of him.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Yes Thinker Ennis is in better form than Farah, but tends to give away a lot of penalties with grubby ruck play.
Refs do put the whistle away a bit more in SOO but Ennis is on their radar.
Wade Graham may have to wait for SOO 3 as I can't see him beating the charge but stranger things have happened.
I think you'll see more flair in attack from the Blues this time.
QLD won't lose anything with Lillyman in for Myles his form at the Warriors has been good.
Submitted by a on
Here is the updated ladder
Islander 69
Dragonsfan4ever 60
BigPeteBx 60
That makes Islander lead by 9
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Tigerholic, noones gonna find the answer looking backwards. You have to focus on the road ahead this time. I'm sure it will be a bumpy trip. The good thing is it's all or nothing. That doesn't feel like such a bad position to be in.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Tigerholic I bet it doesn't feel that good either!
Being one up doesn't feel like such a bad position to be in.
Zero unforced changes either side same referees same excuses possibly available to NSW.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
We all see during an NRL game where the ref has made a howler and five minutes later, the other team that got punished has a couple of penalties and a try to square it up. We see the square up during a regular game, but will there be a square up one Origin I to Origin II? I would hate to think so. What a disappointment it would be if NSW get a win next game because the refs helped it happen, if it was an Origin square up. Can only hope it won't be.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Forget about Origin II @ Suncorp.
Broncos-Panthers II @ Suncorp, Friday night Rd 20 is the one to see.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Rocket don't listen to Coach's comments about me praising NSW players and being hated by other QLD'ers.
I'll always support .the QLDers and the Broncs
But praise where praise is due.
I genuinely believe Moylan is a great attacking player and should be a permanent selection for NSW along with Mansour and maybe Cartwright and Peachy.
NSW has to build a winning combination starting now.
If I was a NSW selector I'd get rid of Gallen, Bird and Woods.
Klemmer & Tamou get good metres but put in some young hungry guys.
Haven't heard yet about Wade Graham but he's a must in future.
Fifita off the bench for strength and a bit of mongrel.
Sorry to see his twin has left for Super League.
COACH can't agree more re the square up thing. It happens every week.
Are the refs so scared of criticism that they have to do this?
I see you're using SOO 1 for your point.
The game has been analysed every which way and most respected commentators say the refs got it right.
Walters said QLD got the rub of the green but I think as a first time winning coach he was just being magnanimous as a winner.
We have a big advantage at Suncorp just look at the number of QLD wins there.
NSW should have won #1
Just imagine if Morris had got that ball 1 centimetre further then it's NSW 10 QLD 6...game over.
The two teams are so close you gotta wonder if we need to do this for much longer.
BUT money raises it's ugly head and it'll probably go on forever.
Just a shame what it does at club level every season.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Can't agree more Coach bring on round 20 when all this SOO nonsense is over and teams back to full strength.
Will be a cracker of a game!
Submitted by a on
Same refs for Origin 2 again Sucked in Daley you did not get you damn way hehe
Submitted by Coach Potato on
What do other Qlders think of having the same refs?
If there's any chance they dud you guys just the same, wouldn't you also be in favour of someone new?
I won't be so cruel as to say I told you so afterwards. I'll say it now.
Submitted by christine on
For what it's worth my tips this week are the same as rick's & in regards to origin i'm with QLD & if i'm not entitled to take who I choose coach then I like others already have will be off this site .
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