Round twenty six selections

Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters – Thursday night – Suncorp Stadium

While the Roosters were impressive winners over the Broncos not so long ago, one has to ask what's in it for them this time. They can't catch the Bunnies on the ladder and the Knights can't catch them. Theoretically they can go past the Eels into 14th place, but that's not much of a carrot. Meanwhile the Broncos could, theoretically, lose a home final with a loss. They could also, theoretically, move into fourth spot with a win. So the Broncos have a carrot and a stick. Note that the Chooks will be without three of their best back-rowers in Cordnor, Taukeiaho and Aubusson. They face an opponent with an All-Australian back row. One of those back-rowers, club captain Corey Parker, is playing what could be his last game at Suncorp. The Broncos are celebrating the game as such. That could be the biggest carrot of all.

Verdict – Broncos by 16

Result - Broncos 24 defeated Roosters 14

Canterbury Bulldogs vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

The way I assessed the Thursday night game seems a perfectly cromulent method to assess the Friday night game too. The Bunnies are currently 13th and cannot possibly finish any lower. There is some chance they could take 12th spot, if they really want it. Do they really want it? I suppose they can say they finished the season with four straight wins. That's something. The Bulldogs will know if they can get past the Broncos before this game begins, but the results from the Panthers and Cowboys games are still to come. A loss isn't such a big issue for the Bulldogs - a Panthers v Bulldogs final is likely to end up at a neutral venue anyway (Sydney Football Stadium). A win on Friday night could be worth something though. If the Broncos or Cowboys lose they move to fifth, and if they both happened to lose they move to fourth. That's worth the effort...surely. The Dogs have lost two in a row but their opponents on those occasions (Broncos and Cowboys) are, I think, a level above the Bunnies. I also think playing the Knights can be bad for a team in the week that follows. This contest will be harder, and it will feel harder. A little bit too hard if you ask me. I give the Bulldogs next to no hope of making a grand final this season, but they can win this.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 4

Result - Rabbitohs 28 defeated Bulldogs 10

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday afternoon – Jubilee Oval

The team with the worst points differential in the competition takes on the team with the second worst points differential in the comp. Lucky for me I'm taking the kids to Sea World on Saturday afternoon, so I don't have to watch this piece of pooh disguised as a football game. The Dragons get to say goodbye to Ben and Benji on the weekend. The Knights can't wait to say goodbye to this whole season. If they couldn't make an effort in the Old Boys game last round what hope have they hear. Normally I don't expect the Dragons to score many points. I'm willing to make an exception.

Verdict – Dragons by 40

Result - Dragons 28 defeated Knights 26

North Queensland Cowboys vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

The Titans will approach this as a must-win game, although that isn't necessarily the case. The Tigers will have to beat the Raiders for the Titans to miss out on a finals berth. The Cowboys will know their fate by the time they take to the field on Saturday night. They can't move higher than fourth, but there is a very real chance they could drop to sixth with a loss. A win and they are rewarded with a final in Melbourne or Sydney, while a loss means they are punished with a final in Townsville. In fact, there's some chance they could end up playing the Titans again in a weeks time. Matt Scott is out and he's close to irreplaceable in that role so those that step into the breach will need to lift. Hopefully the crowd can help on that front. The Titans overall record against the Cowboys is pretty good (8 from 16) but they've never won in Townsville. Given the Cowboys record at home this season I suspect the Titans will just fall short again. But what a game...there'll be plenty of sore bodies in the days that follow this battle.

Verdict – Cowboys by 7

Result - Cowboys 32 defeated Titans 16

Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday night – AAMI Park

The Sharks are one team with a playing style that has troubled the Storm this season. The Sharks did it in round four, and the Raiders and Broncos have, in recent weeks, proved it wasn't a fluke. The primary task is to extract the foot of Cameron Smith from the accelerator. More often than not he manages to control the speed of the game. He couldn't do that last week, and it frustrated him so much he even got marched ten metres at one stage. Line speed in defence and swift ball movements in attack are the key, and the Sharks can do that. The Sharks did that in round four, and while a 14-6 scoreline looks like a dour victory the Sharks could have won that game by much more. So I'm giving them a big hope here, and the Sharks would love to have the J.J. Giltinan shield in their empty trophy cabinet. But I can't tip them. The Storm have never lost to the Sharks in Melbourne, and they very rarely lose two games in a row at home. There's no AFL in Melbourne this weekend, and the Storm often give us their best when they are the only show in town. With so much to play for, I'll back the experienced men in purple and the experience of their coach to get them home. Again...what a game. How good is the football on Saturday night peoples? Wow!

Verdict – Storm by 1

Result - Storm 26 defeated Sharks 6

Wests Tigers vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – Leichhardt Oval

I can't be the only one that would love to see The Viking Clap in the first week of the finals, but it isn't going to happen. The Raiders could move into the top two with a win (if the Sharks lose), but they'll be away from home next week (Sydney or Melbourne) no matter what [Attention tipsters: the information here is not correct. The Raiders can host a final with a top two finish. See the comments for more details...apologies for the incorrect information]. The Tigers, like most of us, will be watching the Cowboys vs Titans game on Saturday night. If the Titans win, this game becomes a lot less meaningful. At this point I'm leaping to the conclusion that the Tigers can make the top eight with a win. The Tigers proved they can win without Tedesco last week and I think they can win again. Much depends on what happens before kick-off on Sunday, but right now I'm backing the Tigers in an upset.

Verdict – Tigers by 4

Result - Raiders 52 defeated Tigers 10

New Zealand Warriors vs Parramatta Eels – Sunday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

Did you ever have a crazy girlfriend that was a lot of fun but so freaking unpredictable that you never had a clue what was really going on? The Warriors are my crazy girlfriend. The most frustrating team in the NRL will remain forever thus, and I'm not sure what it's going to take to change them. On Sunday they are free from any pressures or expectations and they'll probably win this game in a canter. If they do I'll look at them and I'll shake my head in dismay. Why can't you be like that every week? Why? The Eels have nothing to play for but I've been saying that for weeks. If only the Warriors could harness the discipline and effort the Eels have shown through adversity...they'd be top four at least. I'll tip the Warriors but nothing would surprise me in this game. The Eels at $2.85 are definitely backable. Warriors huh! Lucky for me I never married them.

Verdict – Warriors by 14

Result - Eels 40 defeated Warriors 18

Penrith Panthers vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday night – Pepper Stadium

The Panthers can't lose 7th spot, and by the time Sunday night rolls around they'll know if they can move any higher. Even Coach Potato wouldn't think the Panthers can move past the Cowboys, but there's a very slight chance they can move past the Broncos. Getting past the Bulldogs is slightly more likely, but even then they'll probably be playing the Bulldogs in the finals at a neutral venue anyway. There's a lot of unknowns at play right now, but what I do know right now is that this is the Panthers last game at home this season, and I expect them to perform accordingly. Don't be surprised if they jump the gates, spring to a 20 point lead and then rest some players in the second half. They do have a short turnaround into the finals compared to most. Campbell-Gillard is out for the season and he's a good one, but that Panthers bench isn't short of talent this year. As for Manly, this is a season that well and truly got away from them. They'll be getting away too. I suspect their bags are already packed.

Verdict – Panthers by 22

Result - Panthers 36 defeated Sea Eagles 6

Wally Lewis - round twenty-six selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • BRONCOS vs Roosters
  • BULLDOGS vs Rabbitohs
  • DRAGONS vs Knights
  • COWBOYS vs Titans
  • STORM vs Sharks
  • Tigers vs RAIDERS
  • WARRIORS vs Eels
  • PANTHERS vs Sea Eagles

Comments

a's picture

Cowboys will win the grand final again

Coach Potato's picture

Thanks Fortress . Showing integrity when you finish on the other end of the scoreboard is to be admired.

Hey Rocket, what was your assessment?
Cats got your tongue again?
Thanking your lucky stars you will stay on the opposite side of the draw til week 4?

Panthers were Dynamite, and Broncos were fire cracker.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Don't get too excited coach manly were in disneyland the first 30 mins flat track bullies look like world beaters running around pepper write the bulldogs off at your own peril in fact I'm going to tip the bulldogs exclusively on this site they wont offer a four try headstart.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Coach go for stroll down to the academy today have a chat to martin stop by the leagues club have a beer maybe play the pokies check the trophy cabinet they all have a lot of dust on them this time next week the dynamite dream will of exploded and it will all be over for you if you behave yourself I'll send you a bronco beanie and you can come a little further into September with us.

a's picture

It going to be a hot september

Anonymous's picture

If Canberra Raiders beat Cronulla this Saturday. They will equal their highest consecutive wins in a row. They did twice before.

Jack Starky's picture

I am not impressed with the NRL charging Jack Wighton with a grade 2 for the tackle on the weekend. Where is the consistency NRL ! Do the NRL want the Sharks to win ?

Johnny Awesome's picture

If the Raiders beat Cronulla on Saturday, they will equal their all time most consecutive wins in a row. They've done it twice before. I inadvertently posted this without logging in before, sorry. They have already scored a record number of points this season and the last they had less points scored against them was in 1999. As you know Dragons are my team but the Raiders are obviously second. Living in Canberra, I have some obscure contacts with the Raiders and the biggest reason for their success is Ricky Stewarts creation of a family culture in the club and his philosophy of keeping the players close to their families . I would be surprised if you see any Raiders players on the news for indiscretions off the field. The Raiders have a chance of upsetting a few favourites.

Johnny Awesome's picture

The Jack Wighton incident was a non-incident. Lets hope they dismiss any charge

Rocket Ryan's picture

Could somebody go down to the leagues club and check on coach potato

Rocket Ryan's picture

Ill be really pissed off he jagged a jackpot on my call.

mark ashford's picture

Ha Rocket Coach finally has a real team to try and get over.
The Dogs will be filthy about their last couple of games and will take it out on the Pennies.
Broncos on the other hand have a team they have beaten over and over again.
Panthers to go OUT round 1

Coach Potato's picture

Jarryd Hayne.

Last 10 games v Brisbane, 6 wins and 4 losses.

Pretty good strike rate considering how bad Parra have been in recent years.

Well let's take a little closer look at this.
In each and every one of those 6 wins, Hayne was playing fullback.
But also of the 4 losses, he was playing out of his favoured fullback position on 3 occasions - twice at centre, and once at 5/8.

That means when Hayne has played against Brisbane as fullback, his record is 6 wins of the last 7 played, including the last 3 meetings, and all of this, stretching back to 2007.

In each of his last 3 games against Brisbane, Hayne has also scored a Try, and somehow coincided with his team winning.

Hayne is still yet to a score his first Try for the Gold Coast. He knows his impact will affect the result here. I think Broncos know it deep down too.

Hayne scored 2 Tries in his last game for Parra, round 26 2014. That's 2 years ago now. He failed to cross into the end-zone during his NFL stint, and nor did he cross the stripe during his short Rugby 7s career.

Let's face it. There's a Plane about due to Touch-Down.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Good to see you made it home safe and in good spirit ????

Not enougj runway this week for takeoff plan for next year.

Coach Potato's picture

I think lots of people that read this site will be thankful when Broncos bow out on Friday, and Rocket is sentenced to a life under a bed. We all know he cries when he loses.

Johnny Awesome's picture

Mr Thinker,
Will you be doing your usual analysis of the respective games during the elimination and qualifying finals?

The Thinker's picture

Johnny Awesome,
Yes....yes I will.

mark ashford's picture

Coach for the past couple of weeks you have blasted Hayne saying he shouldn't even be playing. Now you're backing him to help beat the Broncs at Suncorp....we'll see who goes out this weekend my friend.
Unfortunately I won't as I leave for Fraser Island on Friday and don't return until Friday 16th.
To everyone who's team is still alive, GOOD LUCK in the finals.

tigerholic's picture

Mark

Enjoy Fraser mate, the fish were around last week. Every second Friday at Orchid Beach, they show the footy at the "Shed", on the left as you go into Orchid. You might get lucky and be able to see the game.

Cheers and good luck to the Broncos

a's picture

Here is the updated ladder for the people in the non tipping competition

BigPeteBx 120

Dragonsfan4ever 117

That puts Dragonsfan4ever back into it trailing by 3

Coach Potato's picture

Very sporting Mark, yes I also wish the 8 teams well. There's hardly a guarantee that the best team will win each game but I guess we can still cross fingers.

Yes, I wasn't happy that Hayne, essentially a deserter, has been offered red carpet VIP movie star treatment. But he,'s there and all my tgripng won't change it. All I was really doing was making an observation that he has played the Broncos at fullback winning 6 out to the last 7, and none of those games as part of any world beating team (suffice to say they all got paid too much salary).

I do think the Broncos are worried, and what a different team they are when they get a bit nervy.

Coach Potato's picture

Forecast for Sunday in Sydney is 22 degrees , sunny and gentle 6 knot breeze.
Hardly seems fair to play such a free flowing style and know there'll be no dew on the ball.

Coach Potato's picture

So Hopoate devoutly rests on Sunday in the name of religion, but says if the Dogs makes the Grand Final he will play.

Please God don't let them make it. Spare this fool from our sight.

tigerholic's picture

Hey Coach

I can just feel your excitement for your Panthers. I believe that your team will survive the first week of the finals, the raiders will win, the storm will win, the Broncos will win.

Can anyone tell me what it feels like when your team plays finals footy. I just hope that I live long enough for one more premiership, I might change teams!!

tigerholic's picture

Hey folks

Only messing with you all, I have black and gold blood that will flow through my veins for many more years, good luck to each and every team playing finals.

My main team that I want to see fail is??, can anyone guess who I am thinking of?

St.George Illawarra Dragonsfan4ever's picture

Hopefully it's still going on through the finals, hen I'll still be in with a chance. Yes, why did Islander have to leave? Yes sure has been a bumpy ride this season. But there's more to come

Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

St.George Illawarra Dragonsfan4ever's picture

Oh good, Big Pete it's still going.

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