Round sixteen selections

New Zealand Warriors vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday night – Mt Smart Stadium

The Bulldogs have won six games this season and they won every one of those games with defence. With every win they kept their opponent to 12 points or less, and they need to. This season the Bulldogs are averaging less than 14 points per game, and you'll lose more games than you'll win if that's the case. They're almost always competitive, but clearly they are lacking the capacity to score points when they need to. The challenge here is keeping the Warriors to just 12 points or less. In the last three weeks the Warriors have scored 86 points, and when playing at Mt Smart they are averaging more than 21 points per game. Take note that the Bulldogs have a very good record in New Zealand, but a lot of those games were played away from Mt Smart Stadium. The Warriors at Mt Smart are a different ball team, and they should take plenty of confidence out of that dominant display over the Titans on the Gold Coast last start. The Warriors pack will need to stand up and deliver, but their challenge has been made slightly easier with Bulldogs backrowers Klemmer and Jackson backing up from Origin duty on Wednesday night. Keiran Foran needs to pass a fitness test today to play on Friday. Without him this is a lot harder, but as things stand it's the Warriors for mine.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result – Warriors by 7

Wests Tigers vs Gold Coast Titans – Friday night – Campbelltown Stadium

Not a lot of winning form going into this game – the Tigers have lost their last six while the Titans have lost their last four. Signs of life from the stripey cats last week, but they were still run down by the Sharks in the minutes that mattered. A ridiculously depleted Gold Coast Titans gave the Rabbitohs a scare in round 15 too, but in the end they didn't have enough first graders to stay the course for 80 minutes. Tedesco and Woods (probably) return for the Tigers, while the Titans (probably) welcome back Peats, Hayne, Wallace, Don and Paasi. I'm not sure if footy players take much notice of the ladder but if they do the Tigers will realise they are now officially in last place. That would hurt (if they noticed) and they could easily pull out a big game here. In the end I'm tipping the Titans, whose forward pack looks set to dominate. The Titans have beaten the Storm and the Sharks away from home this season. If they bring that sort of form they should be too good.

Verdict – Titans by 8

Result – Titans by 12

North Queensland Cowboys vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday afternoon – 1300SMILES Stadium

While rugby league is never about just one man, this game is the exception that proves the rule. If the Cowboys medical staff can put Jonathan Thurston back together in time for Saturday afternoon, his team-mates will be ten foot tall and bullet-proof as they do everything they can to make sure game number 300 for their captain is a winning one. If he doesn't play, the Cowboys are likely to struggle against a Panthers side that are finally finding their feet. Note that not one Panther is involved in Origin football, so their preparation for this game is without interruption. The Cowboys have four Queenslanders coming back, and their most important Queenslander has to be extremely doubtful. If Thurston doesn't play, the Cowboys could hand the jersey straight to Te Maire Martin. I'm sure the recently released Panther would love the opportunity. I'm guessing that Thurston won't play, and with that I'm tipping a Panthers victory, but late team changes don't get more important than this.

Verdict – Panthers by 1

Result – Cowboys by 2

Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night – GIO Stadium

Do you ever pick a team based entirely on the weather? I do. The weather icon for Canberra on Friday is a snowflake, and the current forecast for Canberra on Saturday is a maximum of 12 degrees, a minimum of -3 degrees and with rain developing late in the day. To those Canberra fans that get to this game...I salute you. The Raiders, like the Panthers, have no Origin representation, and should be used to this deplorable weather. Thaiday will still wear his tropical undies I imagine.

Verdict – Raiders by 8

Result – Broncos by 10

Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – Adelaide Oval

Important update – since publishing my preview the Storm have advised that Smith, Slater, Cronk and Chambers will all be unavailable this weekend. My Storm tip stands, but take note tipsters.

Combined, Wally Lewis and I made 34 State of Origin appearances, and we both agree that it's easier to back up from an Origin game if you win. For the Storm we have Smith, Slater, Cronk, Chambers and Glasby all backing up from a win (assuming they all play). For the Roosters, only Napa had a win on Wednesday, with Cordnor, Pearce and Ferguson hoping to rebound from a loss. Take note also that this Roosters home game is in Adelaide (there you go 'a'...they do take NRL games to South Australia). I've no idea what sort of crowd to expect at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday night, but I have a suspicion that the Storm will get slightly more of the neutral observers on their side. The Storm have won all seven away games this season while the Roosters record (6 wins from 9) isn't bad either. Importantly, all three of their away losses were games played outside NSW. 1st plays 2nd in what is clearly the game of the round. I don't tip against the Storm very often and it's a strategy that's been working for me for a very long time.

Verdict – Storm by 1

Result – Roosters by 1

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday afternoon – UOW Jubilee Oval

The Dragons have slipped from second on the ladder and need to resurrent their fortunes quickly or they risk slipping out of the top eight altogether. After that pretty dreadful performance in round 15 I expect their recently re-signed coach to put a bomb under them this week and there is next to no risk they will take this game lightly. The Knights, bless them, give their all each and every week but their all is often not quite good enough. Just two victories this season, and they've lost eight of their last nine against the Red V.

Verdict – Dragons by 8

Result – Dragons by 4

Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday afternoon – Southern Cross Group Stadium

The Sharks may be sitting third on the ladder but they haven't exactly been impressive. That said, if you're sitting third you must be winning so I have to credit them for that. Their performances at home in particular have been less than stellar. This season their only wins at home have been against the 15th placed Knights by a point, the Cowboys without Thurston by 4 points, the 12th placed Bulldogs by a point and a 2 point victory over the 16th placed Tigers. Yuck! Compare and contrast the Sharks home record with the Sea Eagles away record – they haven't lost an away game all year and they've beaten the Cowboys (with Thurston) by 22, the Roosters by 6, the Raiders by 2, the Rabbits by 38 and the Titans by 20. That's vastly superior form. Couple that with the Origin disruption (Fifita, Graham, Maloney, Bird, Holmes) for the Sharks and you've got a recipe for an upset result here. As I said, the Sharks keep winning and tipping is about finding the winner, but I'm taking them on this weekend.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 2

Result – Sea Eagles by 17

Wally Lewis - round sixteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • WARRIORS vs Bulldogs
  • Tigers vs TITANS
  • COWBOYS vs Panthers
  • RAIDERS vs Broncos
  • ROOSTERS vs Storm
  • DRAGONS vs Knights
  • SHARKS vs Sea Eagles

Comments

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hello all,
Mr Thinker, whilst I'm at it, has the concept of putting an NRL team on the stock exchange been considered. It's obvious Gold Coast and Newcastle owned by the NRL are running at a loss. Even a 50% share of investors on the stock exchange would help? Don't know much about finances only the debts my eldest passes on but just wondering if this was a possibility Mr Thinker? Cheers from Mr A

The Thinker's picture

GReetings Johnny A,

Funny you should ask, the Brisbane Broncos are a listed company on the stock exchange, so you can actually buy shares in them. They even pay a dividend. Stock code is BBL.

I am pretty sure the Broncos are the only sporting club in the country that is an ASX listed company.

Johnny Awesome's picture

Thanks Mr Thinker, well there you go, learnt something new again. It actually makes sense why the Broncos have also been such a successful club as well. When you start with very astute administration at the top then it will filter down to all the other aspects of the club including success. It's a wonder other clubs don't follow their lead. The Broncos are obviously where they are now because of many years of good house keeping, can't help but admire that. Thanks Mr Thinker for the insight cheers from Mr A.

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hi all,
Just got on the bus on this brisk foggy Canberra morn. He's running a bit late so the ride so it'sa bit wild. Fairdinkum, the last time I went around corners this fast was at Mt Panaama. Bit hard to type on this gadget that works as my phone. Cheers all catch up later, need to grab the edge of the seat for support.

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans,

If any of you are looking for my tips and previews for round 16, they will be published on Thursday morning (tomorrow).

With Origin tonight, I'll be waiting until after that game is over and we have a clearer picture of who might and might not be playing this weekend.

All the best...and enjoy the game tonight.

christine's picture

You never put your tips in for the following game after an origin game is played before origin game is played , you never know what injuries will come out of an origin game ...

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hi all,
Can someone tell me how a one match ban becomes a two match ban? De Belin was picked in the NSW squad for State of Origin and has been suspended for one match so is no longer available there. Why isn't he allowed to play for Saints either on the weekend? He misses State of Origin and then another game for Saints. 1 + 1 = 2 for a one match ban.
Cheers from Mr A

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hi all,
I know De Belin 19th man but with injury clouds over a few players may have seen him play. Merrin is in now and if Merrin actually does get to get play because someone pulls out with injury wouldn't that let De Belin play on the weekend. A tad confusing this suspension thing. Cheers from Mr A

a's picture

I dont really know Johnny Awesome

Chris Walker's picture

Well what to say about last night .. totally flabbergasted .. as a die hard Blues Supporter I just can't believe their capitulation in the second half .. with the game all but won they decided to stop playing and invited Qld back into the game .. as Joey said after the game .. 'I could not believe what I was watching' .. totally agree!!

Grant's picture

stop crying u nsw supporters

Tom's picture

Hi Thinker,

I am wondering if you have changed your format? I can't see the usual guest tips links for this round under Wally Lewis' tips ...

Thanks

Russell's picture

Hi Thinker The Raiders had Josh Papalii playing for QLD

The Thinker's picture

Hi Tom,

It's there. I suspect no-one had put any tips in when you had a look, but it's there now.

Russell,

Good point on Papalii...and the Broncos haven't given up as many Origin players for game two as they often do (just the three). It's going to be cold though.

BRRRRR!!!!!!!!

a's picture

Here are my tips

Warriors by 6 I think the Warriors will beat the Bulldogs here

Titans by 8 I think the Titans will continue Panthers misery here

Cowboys by 1 I think the Cowboys will win in a thriller against the Panthers

Raiders by 4 I think the Raiders will win against the Broncos

Storm by 2 I think the Storm will get home aganist the Roosters

Dragons by 12 I think the Dragons will win easy against the Knights

Sharks by 2 I think the Sharks will got home in a thiller here

Steve's picture

Some would suggest that Qld created pressure, picked up their game, Hayne and Pearce cracked under pressure so Qld won?

Why does it seem that NSW cannot acknowledge a true never say die spirit and prefer to say they let Qld win?

I would suggest Qld won with one hand behind their backs last night (Thurston on one arm) and NSW won game 1 because they had the equivalent of both hands behind their backs IE no JT ;-)

Just a thought?

christine's picture

Johnny awesome i'm not commiting myself to anything yet until I know how I go with having my treatment ...

a's picture

Update the Origin players from Storm are not backing up I will change to Roosters

Dragons-fanboy's picture

Hello everyone, my tips for this week are:

Warriors by 8- Warriors to get the win here. Warriors traditionally are dominate at this time of the season. They are starting to show some consistency as well. They'll get on top here over some tired Bulldogs forwards and a tired Morris twin named Brett. Don't forget, they do have to travel a long way those origin boys after the origin game let alone the whole side.

Tigers by 4- Tigers to get the upset win here at a chilly Campbelltown on Friday night against an injury prone Titans outfit who do have their troops from origin back though.

Panthers by 2- Dunno if Thurston's playing. Either way I think that the Panthers are going to win this one in a thrilling game. They have a settled outfit who are going to have fresh legs on Saturday night whereas the Cowboys will have a host of players backing up from origin travelling to Townsville which could affect their game.

Raiders by 12- I really want to see the Raiders get back to what they done last year with their entertaining style of play. I have a feeling that we'll see it in this one and the Raiders to win.

Roosters by 4- The big 3 and Chambers are going to be resting this one out for the Storm. I think that this will be enough to see a Roosters upset here down in Adelaide.

Dragons by 14- Dragons to get back into the winners circle here. We've got a magnificent record against the Knights, we are playing at home in Kogarah where we've played well at this season playing there, we've got Dugan back to spark our attack (don't think he'll be too tired as he'll have time to rest and then back to train with the boys), and hopefully Frizell is back same thing with him. Though I wouldn't be surprised if Knights upset. Big for me to say but I'm just being honest.

And finally... Manly by 8- Sharks' home woes against the top 8 sides will continue here. Plus, Manly have a good away record this season and I think will upset here.

Awesome. Good luck with everyone's tips for this week and with everyone's teams for this week. Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

mark ashford's picture

Tough round this weekend with players backing up from origin.
NSW should have won last night but the QLDers showed how it's done.
How many times in origin history have the Maroons come back to snatch a win. It's just in their genes to win.
I suggested a 1 or 2 point win and I'll settle for 2.
We still have a game to go so don't despair you NSW supporters.
Don't forget you gave us a flogging in game 1 in Brisbane.

Was disgusted by drug cheat (self admitted) Andrew Johns rant about NSW performance in the second half. I saw plenty of cheap shots on JT but he kept going. Johns suggested he should have copped more to give NSW a win.
Is that how you win origin? by bashing the worlds best player?
Try playing football NSW you may just win a series and don't listen to fools like Johns.

mark ashford's picture

Sorry, I haven't finished my rant.
I believe the Blues played extremely well last night and missed a win by a whisker.
Andrew Johns should apologise to Laurie Daly, all the Blues players and their fans.

The Thinker's picture

The record of Andrew Johns at Origin level isn't quite as spectacular as many think it is. I'm not suggesting for a minute he wasn't a great player...because he was, but at the time there were people in NSW saying he was better than Wally Lewis (and there's plenty who still think so)...but the results would suggest otherwise.

1995 - The Super League year. QLD were rank outsiders in every game of that series and won 3-0. Johns played halfback in game one and they didn't score a point. He played halfback in game two and they lost again, and he was dropped for game three.

1996 - played at hooker because at the time Geoff Toovey was considered a better halfback. They won, but Toovey was the halfback (and captain).

1997 - played at hooker again. Even when Toovey wasn't available in one game they brought in John Simon to play halfback and Johns stayed at hooker. They lost.

1998 - played halfback for the first time for NSW in all three games. They lost the series

1999 - played halfback for NSW in all three games. QLD retain the trophy.

2000 - Johns didn't play. NSW win 3-0

2001 - Johns didn't play. QLD won 2-1

2002 - played halfback for NSW in all three games. QLD retain the trophy.

2003 - played halfback for NSW in all three games. NSW win 2-1. This is the first series victory for Johns playing halfback.

2004 - didn't play. NSW won anyway.

2005 - replaced Kimmorley at halfback for game two of the series. NSW win the last two games to take the series. This is the year those in NSW start talking him up as the immortal one.

So he was involved in seven Origin series. QLD won four of them. During his career he didn't play in three Origin series. NSW won two of them. So NSW had a better Origin record when he wasn't there.

The Thinker's picture

Just an FYI for those who are looking at the tips from Wally in this round. Anyone who caught his tips on television may have noticed that he tipped the Storm to beat the Roosters. This was recorded before he know about the team changes for the Storm.

With the team changes, he's tipping the Chooks.

The Thinker's picture

Just a couple of player updates for those who may not have seen them.

Keiran Foran ruled out of the Warriors vs Bulldogs game....eep

Darius Boyd ruled out of the Raiders vs Broncos game. Broken thumb and he won't play Origin 3 either....eep

Thurston ruled out of the Cowboys vs Panthers game.

Tedesco ruled out of the Tigers vs Titans game.

newbie from perth's picture

Sa-wat-dee krup,

Wow! What a great game SOO 2 was eh? Well, great if you’re a Maroons fan but not so good for you Blues. From my semi-impartial view, I loved it. Truth be told, I love every SOO game. Bring on the decider! The scenario in 3 weeks time is one of those things on Newbie’s “bucket list”. Watch a SOO at Suncorp and a bonus if it’s a series decider. Mind you, watching one in Sydney is on there as well so no favouritism here. OK, we’re here to talk tips so let’s get into it…

Bulldogs - Both teams coming off a win and the extra time off from the bye so no excuses with fitness. The Warriors did knock off the Titans but the Titans mucked it all up last week. I might instead base my choice on the Doggies win over the Dragons and them getting Reynolds back. That and the Origin fellas most probably playing. Doggies for me. Woof! Woof!

Tigers - Could go either way. The Tigers’ loss last week wasn’t as bad as the Titans’ was in my book. The Stripey Ones for me.

Cowboys - The Cowboys lost by a narrow margin last week and will get some players back from Wednesday night. Yes, the Panthers have had 2 weeks off but they haven’t won up at 1300SMILES for 7 or 8 years I think so it makes my tip easier. I’m on the Cowboys. Giddy-Up!

Broncos - Both of these teams have had an extended break but the Broncos had some that played Wednesday night and I’m wondering how they’ll front up. They’re also missing Milford so that won’t help. The bookies have the Raiders favourites based, I’m assuming, on home ground advantage, Papalii being their only player who played Wednesday night which means the rest of ‘em will be nice and fresh compared to the SOO Ponies’ players having to back up more than likely sore. Yeah, I don’t know. I might stay with the “maroon” theme (especially after Wednesday night’s thriller) and tip the buckin’ Broncos.

Roosters - The Roosters “home” game in Adelaide eh? Why couldn’t they bring it to Perth? Oh well, there’s always next time. This is gonna be a tough one for my BBB and absolutely no idea how playing at Adelaide Oval will impact the match. Yes, my BBB did smack the Tigers but we made a lot of mistakes in that one. Maybe the 2 weeks break was an opportunity to work on getting things right. If we take that standard to Adelaide I’m pretty sure the Storm Troopers will make us pay. As much as the logic says the Storm should win this, Newbie’s gonna tip his BBB to scrape in. Win or lose, at least we’ll get to see where we’re at. P.S. Just read Thinkers update on missing Storm players and am breathing a little easier. Not much mind you. As they say in Thailand … “nit noy”.

Dragons - The Dragons’ form has dropped off a wee bit recently but they should still be too good for a “not half bad” Knights outfit.

Manly - How many of the Sharks’ SOO players will back up? How much benefit will Manly get from having the last 2 weeks off? Manly keep surprising everyone and I’m thinking they might be a chance to surprise again. I might be mad with this one but I’ll stay with the “maroon” theme here as well and tip the Sea Eagles in this one.

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week people. Cheers.

P.S. A stitch in time saves nine what? Hmmm…

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hello all,
The 7 original immortals deserved to be there in my view. I was gob smacked when Andrew Johns got the award in 2012. Up until then it held credibility for me. I think it was extremely poor when they changed rules so that the players could only be judged on playing ability alone and nothing else. That was a real cop out and as such Andrew Johns is there as an immortal, seriously? Take a look at the list: Churchhill, Fulton, Gasnier, Raper, LangLands, Lewis, Beetson…..all great players, decent blokes and role models off and on the field. At the time the other candidates were Norm Provan, Ron Coote and Mal Meninga. For goodness sake they picked John’s ahead of Provan and Coote? Couldn’t believe it when I saw that. Now take a look at Johns, he gets drunk at an airport, passes out then makes lewd comments that were disgraceful to a lady who is Mum as well? He’s also admitted to frequent drug and alcohol abuse during his career. He had a racism incident as well in 2010 involving Timana Tahu, also the Gai Waterhouse incident etc. I know he may have had some mental issues that led to the abuse and I’m not condemning him for that. Many people have demons in their life and I’m glad he has got over them before they got over him. Also he didn’t pick himself, in my view he was not ready to be considered. What I am saying is, that the decision to pick him was flawed, they should have waited like they did with all the others. Provan should be the next, if they ever pick one again.
Cheers from Mr Awesome.

Taka's picture

Here tips for round 16:

Bulldogs by 4
Tigers by 6
Cowboys by 10
Raiders by 8
Roosters by 2
Dragons by 10
Sharks by 4

christine's picture

Thinker kerrnod Holland is also out for bulldogs he is not in the 17 frawley is instead ...

christine's picture

Spartan warrior Are you going to put your tips in ???

Steel Panther's picture

I like your comments Johnny about Johns. Hardly deserving compared to those already inducted as Immortals.

It's looking like a wet track in Auckland tonight......

a's picture

Sad news JT out for the season

christine's picture

Kerrnod Holland is on the interchange just to correct what I said before ...

Spartan Warrior's picture

Greetings to all from the Spartan Warrior,
I within this walls, counts thee, its creditor Lady Christine, thank you.
The Spartan Warrior’s tips are:
Warriors by 10
Wests Tigers by 4
Cowboys by 4
Raiders by 8
Storm by 2
Dragons by 5
Sea Eagles by 2
Marcel Proust said “Instead of seeking new landscapes, develop new eyes”
Rugby League is a very strong institution. Yea, the walls that protect this rugby league establishment are very much like the protective walls of Sparta. What walls did Sparta has't? Sparta’s walls wast its line of warriors. There were no bricks and mortar that protected the city, thus the warriors who carried the shield and sword wast its strength. Rugby League relies on much the same, but it also needeth those that have been entrenched in the organisation to seeth with new eyes. The landscape is fine, but as each era passes, improvement wilt only occur with a flexible, holistic approach that encompasses the players and the administration as one. Yea, there is not much to worry about in Rugby League, as Wayne Bennet said ““Worrying is a lot like a rocking chair. It gives you something to do but gets you no where.”
The Spartan Warrior has spoken.
est quia nunc vale [It is goodbye for now]

christine's picture

My tips for rd 16 are as follows :
warriors
titans
cowboys
raiders
roosters
dragons
sharks

fortress's picture

hey fo;ks coudnt get my tips in for this week, work has been heavy but the mighty eagles should continue there march to the finals,the sharks are a quality outfit and this should be a great contest always is.

the roosters vs storm clash should be a close affair 2 quality teams im leaning towards a roosters victory.

the broncos maybe to affected by soo they can win but canberra in the frozen capital may just prevail here though would not suprise if the broncs win,and for mine the cows even minus thurston to trump the panthers at home.

hope u are all keeping warm enjoy your weekend and good luck to all your clubs.

and go the mighty sea eaglessssssssssssss

a's picture

Well done Cowboys you can win without JT

mark ashford's picture

Yes "a" great win by the Cowsboys and great goal kicking in the absence of JT.
Some of those Penrith boys will get a rocket for the number of penalties given away.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Did anyone see the game? Was it a poor dropathon it was it great defense end to end type of game. The stats don't seem to do it justice.

mark ashford's picture

Baggy
I watched most of it and in all honesty it was a pretty ordinary game.
The Cows were understandably flat with the JT news but did enough to win. Pretty poor performance by the Panthers who I thought had turned the corner.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Well in that case with a pair of byes up our sleeves we should be in with a chance of a later mad Monday this year. Doesn't bode well for the panthers then.

a's picture

Yeah it was a pretty sloppy game

mark ashford's picture

Baggy
I do believe you can keep the faith with your Eels.
A certain 2 points this week and another bye to come.
If I was a Panthers supporter I'd be worried.
Broncs/Raiders on a knifes edge at half time could go either way.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Well if the raiders go down then that starts to sort it out. Gives us a nice buffer. We'll have to see if we can improve our for and against up from -36 to a positive number.

a's picture

Raiders play Cowboys next week

mark ashford's picture

well the Raiders just went down to a fired up broncs.
Whoever said Bennett was a fool to buy Benji can eat their words.
Benji & Hunt made the Raiders halves look ordinary and the Broncs forwards outplayed the big Canberra boppers.
Gillett backing up from soo was amazing as were all the Broncs in freezing conditions in our Capitol.
Ashamedly I tipped the Raiders....won't do it again.

mark ashford's picture

I mean ashamedly I tipped against my Broncs. I'm sure the Raiders will win more games his season.

Baggy_Gee's picture

That's why I stick with the boys Mark. I tried to be clever but each time I tried to pick them they would get up for a good win. But happy they did the job tonight for us.

The Thinker's picture

21500 at the game in Adelaide tonight.

Storm.....bah!

christine's picture

Mark I believe the raiders have three hard games in a row now not quite sure on the order but it's sharks , roosters , storm so raiders might just be in a bit of rut before it all counts ...

Baggy_Gee's picture

Interesting that it's already half way through the season and results are starting to be important already.

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