New Zealand Warriors vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday night – Mt Smart Stadium

The Bulldogs have won six games this season and they won every one of those games with defence. With every win they kept their opponent to 12 points or less, and they need to. This season the Bulldogs are averaging less than 14 points per game, and you'll lose more games than you'll win if that's the case. They're almost always competitive, but clearly they are lacking the capacity to score points when they need to. The challenge here is keeping the Warriors to just 12 points or less. In the last three weeks the Warriors have scored 86 points, and when playing at Mt Smart they are averaging more than 21 points per game. Take note that the Bulldogs have a very good record in New Zealand, but a lot of those games were played away from Mt Smart Stadium. The Warriors at Mt Smart are a different ball team, and they should take plenty of confidence out of that dominant display over the Titans on the Gold Coast last start. The Warriors pack will need to stand up and deliver, but their challenge has been made slightly easier with Bulldogs backrowers Klemmer and Jackson backing up from Origin duty on Wednesday night. Keiran Foran needs to pass a fitness test today to play on Friday. Without him this is a lot harder, but as things stand it's the Warriors for mine.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result – Warriors by 7

Wests Tigers vs Gold Coast Titans – Friday night – Campbelltown Stadium

Not a lot of winning form going into this game – the Tigers have lost their last six while the Titans have lost their last four. Signs of life from the stripey cats last week, but they were still run down by the Sharks in the minutes that mattered. A ridiculously depleted Gold Coast Titans gave the Rabbitohs a scare in round 15 too, but in the end they didn't have enough first graders to stay the course for 80 minutes. Tedesco and Woods (probably) return for the Tigers, while the Titans (probably) welcome back Peats, Hayne, Wallace, Don and Paasi. I'm not sure if footy players take much notice of the ladder but if they do the Tigers will realise they are now officially in last place. That would hurt (if they noticed) and they could easily pull out a big game here. In the end I'm tipping the Titans, whose forward pack looks set to dominate. The Titans have beaten the Storm and the Sharks away from home this season. If they bring that sort of form they should be too good.

Verdict – Titans by 8

Result – Titans by 12

North Queensland Cowboys vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday afternoon – 1300SMILES Stadium

While rugby league is never about just one man, this game is the exception that proves the rule. If the Cowboys medical staff can put Jonathan Thurston back together in time for Saturday afternoon, his team-mates will be ten foot tall and bullet-proof as they do everything they can to make sure game number 300 for their captain is a winning one. If he doesn't play, the Cowboys are likely to struggle against a Panthers side that are finally finding their feet. Note that not one Panther is involved in Origin football, so their preparation for this game is without interruption. The Cowboys have four Queenslanders coming back, and their most important Queenslander has to be extremely doubtful. If Thurston doesn't play, the Cowboys could hand the jersey straight to Te Maire Martin. I'm sure the recently released Panther would love the opportunity. I'm guessing that Thurston won't play, and with that I'm tipping a Panthers victory, but late team changes don't get more important than this.

Verdict – Panthers by 1

Result – Cowboys by 2

Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night – GIO Stadium

Do you ever pick a team based entirely on the weather? I do. The weather icon for Canberra on Friday is a snowflake, and the current forecast for Canberra on Saturday is a maximum of 12 degrees, a minimum of -3 degrees and with rain developing late in the day. To those Canberra fans that get to this game...I salute you. The Raiders, like the Panthers, have no Origin representation, and should be used to this deplorable weather. Thaiday will still wear his tropical undies I imagine.

Verdict – Raiders by 8

Result – Broncos by 10

Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – Adelaide Oval

Important update – since publishing my preview the Storm have advised that Smith, Slater, Cronk and Chambers will all be unavailable this weekend. My Storm tip stands, but take note tipsters.

Combined, Wally Lewis and I made 34 State of Origin appearances, and we both agree that it's easier to back up from an Origin game if you win. For the Storm we have Smith, Slater, Cronk, Chambers and Glasby all backing up from a win (assuming they all play). For the Roosters, only Napa had a win on Wednesday, with Cordnor, Pearce and Ferguson hoping to rebound from a loss. Take note also that this Roosters home game is in Adelaide (there you go 'a'...they do take NRL games to South Australia). I've no idea what sort of crowd to expect at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday night, but I have a suspicion that the Storm will get slightly more of the neutral observers on their side. The Storm have won all seven away games this season while the Roosters record (6 wins from 9) isn't bad either. Importantly, all three of their away losses were games played outside NSW. 1st plays 2nd in what is clearly the game of the round. I don't tip against the Storm very often and it's a strategy that's been working for me for a very long time.

Verdict – Storm by 1

Result – Roosters by 1

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday afternoon – UOW Jubilee Oval

The Dragons have slipped from second on the ladder and need to resurrent their fortunes quickly or they risk slipping out of the top eight altogether. After that pretty dreadful performance in round 15 I expect their recently re-signed coach to put a bomb under them this week and there is next to no risk they will take this game lightly. The Knights, bless them, give their all each and every week but their all is often not quite good enough. Just two victories this season, and they've lost eight of their last nine against the Red V.

Verdict – Dragons by 8

Result – Dragons by 4

Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday afternoon – Southern Cross Group Stadium

The Sharks may be sitting third on the ladder but they haven't exactly been impressive. That said, if you're sitting third you must be winning so I have to credit them for that. Their performances at home in particular have been less than stellar. This season their only wins at home have been against the 15th placed Knights by a point, the Cowboys without Thurston by 4 points, the 12th placed Bulldogs by a point and a 2 point victory over the 16th placed Tigers. Yuck! Compare and contrast the Sharks home record with the Sea Eagles away record – they haven't lost an away game all year and they've beaten the Cowboys (with Thurston) by 22, the Roosters by 6, the Raiders by 2, the Rabbits by 38 and the Titans by 20. That's vastly superior form. Couple that with the Origin disruption (Fifita, Graham, Maloney, Bird, Holmes) for the Sharks and you've got a recipe for an upset result here. As I said, the Sharks keep winning and tipping is about finding the winner, but I'm taking them on this weekend.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 2

Result – Sea Eagles by 17

Wally Lewis - round sixteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

• WARRIORS vs Bulldogs
• Tigers vs TITANS
• COWBOYS vs Panthers
• RAIDERS vs Broncos
• ROOSTERS vs Storm
• DRAGONS vs Knights
• SHARKS vs Sea Eagles