State of Origin – Game One

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues – Wednesday night – Suncorp Stadium

Queensland Maroons
  1. Darius Boyd (Brisbane Broncos)
  2. Corey Oates (Brisbane Broncos)
  3. Will Chambers (Melbourne Storm)
  4. Justin O'Neill (North Queensland Cowboys)
  5. Dane Gagai (Newcastle Knights)
  6. Anthony Milford (Brisbane Broncos)
  7. Cooper Cronk (Melbourne Storm)
  8. Dylan Napa (Sydney Roosters)
  9. Cameron Smith (Melbourne Storm)
  10. Nate Myles (Manly Sea Eagles)
  11. Josh Papalii (Canberra Raiders)
  12. Matt Gillett (Brisbane Broncos)
  13. Josh McGuire (Brisbane Broncos)
  14. Michael Morgan (North Queensland Cowboys)
  15. Sam Thaiday (Brisbane Broncos)
  16. Aidan Guerra (Sydney Roosters)
  17. Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand Warriors)

Coach - Kevin Walters

New South Wales Blues
  1. James Tedesco (Wests Tigers)
  2. Blake Ferguson (Sydney Roosters)
  3. Josh Dugan (St George Illawarra Dragons)
  4. Jarryd Hayne (Gold Coast Titans)
  5. Brett Morris (Canterbury Bulldogs)
  6. James Maloney (Cronulla Sharks)
  7. Mitchell Pearce (Sydney Roosters)
  8. Aaron Woods (Wests Tigers)
  9. Nathan Peats (Gold Coast Titans)
  10. Andrew Fifita (Cronulla Sharks)
  11. Josh Jackson (Canterbury Bulldogs)
  12. Boyd Cordnor (Sydney Roosters)
  13. Tyson Frizell (St George Illawarra Dragons)
  14. David Klemmer (Canterbury Bulldogs)
  15. Wade Graham (Cronulla Sharks)
  16. Jake Trbojevic (Manly Sea Eagles)
  17. Jack Bird (Cronulla Sharks)

Coach - Laurie Daley

* note: team line-ups are subject to considerable change, but will be updated as news filters through.

Much has been made of the changes affecting the Queensland Origin team. I don't dismiss these changes lightly – when you take away Thurston, Inglis and Scott it's hard to plug the hole their absence leaves behind. The big blue elephant in the room that no-one is talking about is the changes in the NSW side, so let's have a look at this elephant now, Since the last Origin game at Suncorp Stadium in 2016 the Blues have made the following changes:

  • A different fullback
  • Two different centres (arguably playing out of position)
  • One different winger (they've replaced a Morris brother with the other Morris brother – you're forgiven if you didn't notice)
  • A different halfback
  • A new first-time captain
  • Two different prop forwards
  • Two brand new faces on the bench

That's a heck of a lot of changes, particularly when the QLD side have made just three. Even the four guys on the bench for QLD have been there before, so for my money the QLD side are actually a more settled squad than the Blues. QLD Captain Cameron Smith, two-parts footballer and two-parts metronome, is an old hand at all of this. Anything thrown at him in the lead-up will be fended off with ease. It's likely that anything thrown at him on the field will be dealt with in much the same way. I'm a card-carrying member of the Boyd Cordnor fan club, and I've been telling the Blues to find a new captain for about seven years, but this is his debut at the toss of the coin. It's a big deal, and he's in enemy territory. I don't want the man to crumble, and I don't think he will, but it's a big deal.

I've been banking on (literally banking on) low scoring totals in the first game of every Origin series since forever. Since 2011 the highest combined total is 28 points and the highest total by any team is 18 points. In the last three years the totals are actually shrinking further. In 2014 the Blues won 12-8, in 2015 the Maroons won 11-10 and in 2016 the Maroons won 6-4. This trend can't go on forever, but it doesn't look like breaking anytime soon. Take note though, that this game is at Suncorp which is a better surface for football at this time of year. That 28 point game I mentioned earlier was at Suncorp back in 2011. The three lowest scoring games were all at ANZ. The venue matters, if you're banking on these things (bankle responsibly).

There's talk that NSW will aim Tyson Frizell (and others) at Anthony Milford and why wouldn't they? That said, he knows it's coming and QLD knows its coming. QLD will have a plan to manage that just as they have with their small playmakers in the past. Milford gets targeted in defence when he plays for the Broncos and they seem to be travelling just fine. The word is that Will Chambers will be defending alongside Milford in the line but we shall see on the night. There's no shortage of Bronco backrowers in this QLD line-up that can help out if need be.

As far as a result goes I'm tipping a low-scoring contest but not quite as low-scoring as recent years, and I'm banking on the composure of Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Darius Boyd (whose growth as a player in recent years is truly astounding) to get the home side home. Enjoy the game football fans. Enjoy the game.

Verdict – QLD 13 to defeat NSW 12

First try scorer – Dane Gagai

Man of the Match – Cooper Cronk

Comments

Baggy_Gee's picture

Ha ha Mark. Are you implying that QLD has won the last few years because they have the best players in the game? That's the second best joke I've heard this year. As long as this stupid incumbent rule is in it will never be a game played with the best in the game at that time, why isn't Billy there? Why the hell is Morris there, no it's been the money that determines the winner of the series. QLD losing 3 straight series, no-one turned up and like the Broncos on Friday night crowds and money talk.

a's picture

Yeah we should be talking about Origin and not fighting

a's picture

Yeah BNSW will do better without Gallen but they will still lose

christine's picture

Mark I had the same thought about playing origin at seasons end but it's to hot to play origin then so that won't work & tell me do you think coen hess should have been given a chance at origin even though he's still a bit green for origin ?

a's picture

Can Millford fill in JT shoes

Baggy_Gee's picture

Depends on if MILF's feet are the same size a.

christine's picture

It's a big ask "a" to fill in jt shoes but they will have to replace jt one day & i'm not talking about through injury ...

mark ashford's picture

Chris I would love to have seen Hess in the team at least on the bench.

Baggy it's not a "few" years it's Qld 11 and NSW 1.
Have you not heard of "if it's not broke don't fix it"
Yes QLD have won because they have the best players in the game.
This year it may just be different.
Are you suggesting QLD won because of money???
Why would it support QLD when you have the majority of teams many who are struggling financially.
Are you suggesting a financial conspiracy theory????
Don't forget SOO is NSWRL -v- QRL and while supported by the NRL is a state based thing with each state able to draw on NRL teams.
I agree Billy Slater should have been picked and with regard to Morris that is up to you NSW supporters.
I do believe Laurie Daly and the other selectors have chosen you a good team. Mitchell Pierce will redeem himself, he's playing well.
Just as Kevvie Walters has picked his best.
Tomorrow night will tell the tale my friend.
May the best team win.

tigerholic's picture

Hey Guys

Lets talk footy, lets talk tough. We seem to be slipping back into the soft ways when poor old curried coach potato was still around.

Spartan Warrior, if you were anything like your name suggests, grow a set and harden up man, stop being a pussy, fire back t at those that take a shot at you.

We are about to enter a 3 game state of origin series where I hope to see some NSW aggression and stamina. Honestly, living in QLD and being a true blue NSW supporter has been bloody hard to cop, I really think this year is going to be the turning point.

Enjoy the game tomorrow folks, god I love the footy.

mark ashford's picture

Baggy
Your thoughts on money are maybe a little misdirected.
Fox, Channel 9 and various radio stations pay millions to buy the broadcast rights.
They direct the NRL as to which games are played in prime time.
During the season the Broncos get the lions share of Friday night games because they score the highest ratings.
If your paying the money you get the highest rating games.
Don't forget the Broncs aren't playing themselves, there is always another team there.
If the Broncs fall out of contention then it will be the Eels or maybe the Dogs. But will always be the highest rating team.

Johnny Awesome's picture

Mr Mark Ashford, fairdinkum mate. Harrigan was a Qldlander in disguise mate. Remember, that first match up after Super League got dumped finally. Manly vs Brisbane. Geoff Toovey was playing and captain of Manly. Harrigan was coming back from super league to the real league and the real institution and he penalised the living daylights out of Manly. He then sent Toovey off only because Toovey very respectfully pointed out we are one completion now Mr Harrigan. He's always been biased to Qld and Brisbane. St George never had a chance when he refereed a game between them and Brisbane.
Cheers from Mr Awesome

mark ashford's picture

Tiger
Haven't seen you for a bit.
If the pain is too much to bear, then you know where the border is.
Prepare yourself for some more hurt, as it's coming.

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hello all,
Yep Mr Mark Ashford, it's about crowds plus money. Brisbane draw the crowds and the money. Anyone got any stats on crowds? Brisbane would surely have to top the list?
Cheers from Mr Awesome

Johnny Awesome's picture

Mr Mark Ashford the pain to much to bear? What kind would that be? Black, Brown, Polar or just one that does what he does in the woods.
Cheers from Mr Awesome

a's picture

Yeah they want money and crowds

tigerholic's picture

Mark

I have been in my NSW jumper and beanie for approximately 5 hours already, my kids have picked out their wigs, hats, shirts, banners and scarves which of course are all BLUE.
The one thing old can be thankful for is that Darius will have his day Wayne on hand to comfort and t=rock to sleep when NSW smash the little germ tomorrow night.
Call be arrogant, I'm just wound up and passionate about being a NSW fan.

Cheers

tigerholic's picture

Oh shit, the beers have kicked in and my usually excellent grammar has gone haywire. Lets try again:

I have been in my NSW jumper and beanie for approximately 5 hours already, my kids have picked out their wigs, hats,shirts, banners and scarves which of course are all BLUE.
The one thing qld can be thankful for is that Darius will have his dad Wayne on hand to comfort and to rock him to sleep when NSW smash the little germ tomorrow night.
Call me arrogant, I'm just wound up and passionate about being a NSW fan.

Johnny Awesome's picture

Good morning all,
Looking like another fine day in the Nations Capital. As scrappy as Canberra were on Sunday. Ricky Stewart makes a fair point regarding the ruck area. From my view the refereeing was pretty ordinary which Raiders cop a lot. I had my phone stop watch on at times because I was sick of it and yep it confirmed Raiders got pinged for laying in the ruck and Roosters didn't. The refs didn't keep the 10m either. Seriously what's the go, two refs, two touchiest are seeing something different from what I saw from my seats, go figure. Anyway, here's hoping for a Blues win and hopefully the refs won't decide the outcome. Cheers all from Mr Awesome

Rocket Ryan's picture

QUEENSLANDER QUEENSLANDER

HAHAHAHA HAHAHAHA WHERE are you pussies hiding come out baggy you too fortress and the biggest loser tigerholic you cockroaches all have one thing in common and that is you are very good losers as cam smith once said show me a good loser and I will show you a loser

Rocket Ryan's picture

That goes for you and padbull big pete turn off the green acres reruns and sample more disappointement live besides its unhealty for you two to dream about a pig all the time.

Tailspin's picture

Its that time of year and I'm very excited, very disappointed that in form Billy the kid isn't in the side and it would have been an awesome time to slot Hess in and blood him, also a great loss not having JT in there also. I am a Queenslander through and through and hope they win, but I have this awefull gut feeling that the Blues are going to take this one out. I really hope its just nervous poo pains :) Anyway, I hope you all enjoy tonight, up the mighty Queenslanders.

pabdul's picture

ah rocket the only pig ive dreamt about is a policewoman with handcuffs.
but just like the reruns of the addams family there is more chance of cousin itt getting a haircut than qld winning tonight

The Thinker's picture

If I can blow my own trumpet just for a moment.

I went back through the archives to see how my tipping in Origin games is holding up. I've been doing this since 2012 and here are the results:

2012 – three from three

2013 – three from three

2014 – one from three

2015 – three from three

2016 – three from three

So that's 13 correct tips from 15 games, which isn't too shabby at all.

Beautiful weather in Brisbane today...perfect conditions for football.

christine's picture

Spartan warrior there are more people on your side with you staying on site than there is against you so don't let them chase you off ...

christine's picture

Thinker I did ask graham hughes my ? the other day about why they don't let new Zealand have one Anzac game each year in new Zealand as a regular fixture at eden park as a show of respect because they faught too or as you said have it either side of the tasman & he said that is a good ? we will save that one for todd Greenberg ...

a's picture

Yeah they is more people on your side then their is against Spartan so please stay

christine's picture

Padbul I have to say be careful with that picture your using when you post a comment some kids use & access this website that's why the thinker asked us to not use certain language on here because the thinker has had complaints from mothers because their children use the website & now we are teaching them how to give the bird & being a little green man cartoon character that's going to draw their attention straight away ok ...

christine's picture

Sorry I spelt your name wrong pabdul my mistake but seriously be careful with the little green guy but on the same token if the thinker had a problem with it i'm sure he would have said so by now ok ...

Baggy_Gee's picture

Love you Ryan. Nice how you only pop up at this time of the year to join the band wagon. Wait till Thursday and all the little wagon pushers will be hiding behind the last few years record like some other chumps do. It's not about the past it's about the now and the future, we have a better future than any banana pusher does.

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hello all,
Mr Thinker which game did you get right in 2014 [1 from 3]. The Qld win? Did you pick Qld in all three games? Just interested.
Nice record though Mr Thinker.
Cheers from Mr Awesome

The Thinker's picture

That's correct Johnny Awesome



Game one I picked Qld by 4 and they lost by 4

Game two I picked Qld by 1 and they lost by 2

Game three I picked Qld by 7 and they won by 24

NSW won the series but the total points for the series was QLD 44 to NSW 26 and QLD scored 7 tries to NSW 4.

Still that big boofer NSW called a leader got to hold up the trophy....once.

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hi Mr Thinker,
I can see you'll be really missing Gallen this year Mr Thinker. cheers from Mr Awesome

christine's picture

Johnny awesome mr thinker hates paul gallen with a passion mr thinker thinks paul gallen is a grub & rightly so ...

christine's picture

Alright everyone I know we are supposed to sledge each other for origin but I will just simply say let the better team win ...

Anonymous's picture

i noticed the thinkers success in origin but in the third year he gets 1 from 3 well its the third year.

pabdul's picture

sorry last comment from me not logged in.
blues by 4
cordener man of match.

a's picture

Christine I think that Johnny Awesome was being sarcastic

mark ashford's picture

Johnny Awesome & Tigerholic
I'd had a little drink or two when I posted.
Think I must have been thinking about the Bundy Bear.

Dragons-fanboy's picture

It's origin time folks. To be brutally honest, coming from a Blues fan, I'm expecting another Maroons series win is coming. But I've got high hopes that the Blues are going to win this series. But, enough about the series for now. Time to focus on game 1. I think that Qld are going to win this one 16-12. But, coming from the heart, my verdict for Origin game 1 is:

Blues 18- Try scorers: Brett Morris, Josh Dugan, and Boyd Cordner
Conversions: James Maloney (2/3)
Penalty Goals: James Maloney (1/1)
Maroons 14- Try scorers: Darius Boyd and Corey Oates
Conversions: Cameron Smith (2/2)
Penalty Goals: Cameron Smith (1/1)
First try scorer: Corey Oates
MOTM: Boyd Cordner (hoping for Cordner to have a blinder of a game, playing a captain's game.)

Awesome. Bring on tonight. Hopefully and I mean HOPEFULLY the Blues can win this one as Game 1 is in my eyes, is the most important game out of the 3 to win. Cheers and go the mighty Blues!!!!!!!!!!

mark ashford's picture

Tiger
Sounds like you're taking the family to the game, if not at least a SOO party. Good luck to your Blues mate. There is nothing more special than getting your kids involved.

Tailspin
Without JT's guidance we will do it tough and yes Hess should have gotten a jersey. The NSW posters seem to have forgotten Darius is the second highest try scorer for QLD in the last decade. Morgan will come of the bench and inject speed and an unbelievable step.
Most of the QLD spine is there and they will win.

BigPeteBx's picture

Good luck to you Cane Toads.
A big ask for NSW up in Banana Republic, but I will predict them to win by 4pts.

@Rocket Ryan - or is it bucket.
Mate, why is it there are more times you can be nice and then all of a sudden you start bellowing like the spillway of The Hinze Dam.
Yes, it is interstate rivalry and the hardest to win is always in Brisbane.

@Mark A - good luck to you Mark. If its a good niggle you want and we (NSW)win, it will come your way in the posts after or tomorrow - by the truck load. I try not to spruik before big matches or unless I know I'm on a definite Melb Cup winner.

@Other NSW Grand Supporters - here we go lads and lassies and zip on ya doo da, coz we're getting ready to do some mowing.

@ Those who only Follow the Winning Teams - that's what the younger world is coming to. They don't know what losing is and expect, expect.....to only win!

Cheers

BigPeteBx's picture

That's a nicer way Christine with better team.
That's also what is about.

I was amazed when you stated that you live in NSW and follow QLD.
I could understand if you have family there or came from QLD..........struth otherwise - I'm still shell-shocked.

But each to their own and whatever makes them happy.

Keep well

Baggy_Gee's picture

Listening to lockyer, "all QLD has to do is hold on." Hold on till the ref gives us the penalty to move us up the field. Hold till we are gifted the game.

mark ashford's picture

Big Pete
If we fail I'll cop the fall out.
If that happens then there are two games to go.
QLD to win the series no matter what happens tonight.
Gotta go watch the game.
Good luck to you all whoever you support.

christine's picture

Big pete bx I meant exactly what I said I live in nsw but I support qld in origin because firstly I take a winning team & second it pisses my father off no end & the more he says don't do that you can't take that team you traitor the more it makes me take them I push his buttons to annoy him & he certainly knows how to fire mine ...

Baggy_Gee's picture

Less than 5 minutes first bad call. No way was that held down.

christine's picture

"a" I know johnny awesome was being sarcastic to the thinker re: paul gallen ...

Baggy_Gee's picture

How does Cameron Smith get away with that after the ball was well and truly gone?

christine's picture

Just because I live in nsw doesn't mean I have to support nsw ...

Johnny Awesome's picture

Hi all,
I like the referee choice this game, should be unbiased, the chaps running the show have been doing pretty good in the NRL. Hasn't been any real complaints in any camp, no niggle. Listened to Kev Walters on the Ray Hadley show, gave a lot of respect to the Blues. He's a decent bloke.Good to see you out and about Big Pete. Cheers Mr Awesome

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