Round 14 selections

Canberra Raiders vs Penrith Panthers – Friday night – GIO Stadium

Penrith have quietly gone about their business this year. They haven't conceded a try in their last two games, and their last win was a demolition of the team that's been on top of the ladder all season. That form leaves with you no choice but to pick them over the Raiders...except Origin. We have four Panthers backing up from Wednesday night (although Peachey shouldn't be too worn out). The risk is that the Panthers haven't had their halves with them during the preparation for this game, and Peter Wallace isn't available either. The Raiders have three games away from home after this match, so they'll be desperate to get the points here.

Verdict – Raiders by 4

Result – Panthers 23 defeated Raiders 22

Gold Coast Titans vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – Cbus Super Stadium

I think the Bunnies are the form team in the competition this season. Like the Panthers they have four players backing up from Origin, with Damien Cook potentially having the night off. The Titans have two big forwards backing up from Origin, and the Rabbitohs have a very formidable pack. Too big and too strong.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 10

Result – Rabbitohs 18 defeated Titans 16

Manly Sea Eagles vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday afternoon – AMI Stadium

Note the location tipsters. Manly have taken this home game to Christchurch, New Zealand. Manly missed the Trbojevic brothers badly last start and they'll be better if they are back. I'm a little concerned that the Warriors are teetering after that big loss to the Rabbitohs. I won't give up on them just yet though, as I get the feeling the Rabbitohs would do the same to most teams at the minute.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result – Warriors 34 defeated Sea Eagles 14

Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – McDonald Jones Stadium

I'll assume that the four Origin players at the Chooks back up. They did hold on for a brave win last weekend with none of them. The Knights were big winners against the Eels last weekend too, but the Eels are shot, and the Chooks did beat the Knights by 30 in round three.

Verdict – Roosters by 10

Result – Roosters 18 defeated Knights 16

Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – TIO Stadium

Parramatta have decided to think outside of the box by bringing forward their end of season review to the middle of the season. At first I thought it a little odd, but then I realised their season is effectively over anyway. A road trip to Darwin isn't likely to bring the best out of them either. Perhaps they should keep flying and head to Bali.

Verdict – Cowboys by 16

Result – Eels 20 defeated Cowboys 14

Cronulla Sharks vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – Southern Cross Group Stadium

This is one game where Origin is likely to have no impact at all – I can't imagine Holmes needs a rest. The Sharks were outclassed last weekend but I'm talking up the Rabbitohs form. Prior to that the Sharks were on quite a roll, and I think they'll bounce back here.

Verdict – Sharks by 8

Result – Sharks 24 defeated Tigers 16

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – Sunday afternoon – AAMI Park

Will Chambers may be unavailable here, and James Roberts walked off the field on Wednesday night like a man who needs some time to recover. I assume a few Queenslanders that travelled to Melbourne for Origin will hang around for this. Wayne Bennett would love to get one over Craig Bellamy, but the Storm have a compelling record against the Broncos and I see no reason to doubt them.

Verdict – Storm by 8

Result – Storm 32 defeated Broncos 16

Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Monday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

Canterbury can be thankful that the Eels are such a rabble. Canterbury are a rabble too, just slightly less rabbly. The Dragons can bounce back after the loss last start, and turn the Bulldogs into rubble.

Verdict – Dragons by 14

Result – Dragons 18 defeated Bulldogs 16

Wally Lewis - round fourteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • Raiders vs PANTHERS
  • Titans vs RABBITOHS
  • SEA EAGLES vs Warriors
  • Knights vs ROOSTERS
  • Eels vs COWBOYS
  • SHARKS vs Tigers
  • STORM vs Broncos
  • Bulldogs vs DRAGONS

Comments

tigerholic's picture

Morning Folks
I have put my tips in early this week. We are over the halfway point of the season and I need a few roughies to get up.

Origin time is always a gamble with who will and who won't back up after origin for their club side.

Going camping on Friday arvo with just the missus and I, off to Gordon Country again which is out near Warwick.

Enjoy your week folks.

Tiger

Mary S's picture

Enjoy your trip Tiger - see the minimum temp is around 7 - 9d at this time of the year!!!! Have fun!

The Thinker's picture

Those of you desperately waiting for my tips after my stunning effort last round - my current plan is to post them after the Origin game...I may have slightly more of an idea of who may or may not back up for their clubs.

Note that the first game of the round isn't until Friday night...sio we have a little more time than usual.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Brave brave man tiger, being an hour north of your destination days are great but it's the night chill that's rolling in. Also threatening a bit of vertical moisture in the afternoons.

Rocket Ryan's picture

HEY tiger you might as well stay on that camping trip if those tips are anything to go by I see the experiment of backing in the Tigers has finished hopefully the blues go down you can have a miserable weekend.

mark ashford's picture

Rocket you are a hard man. Let Tiger go and enjoy his break.
But congrats on being top of the list, a Qld supporter is due a win.
My tips are in for what they are worth, I think my worst year so far.

Hardyards's picture

Hey footy fellows,
Tigerholic, we camped last weekend at Harvey’s Range, and it got down to 1deg. You southerners may have experienced this, but to a Townsvillian, Its was Damn freezing. Misses’ butt was an ice cube in bed :). You my fine Sir are dead to me now betting against the mighty Cowboys after the display they have shown the last couple of weeks. Expect this winning streak to continue. We will be top eight finishers!!! (Caution - this prediction is from a guy who thinks QLD can win SOO)

christine's picture

For anyone on this site that doesn't actually know I live in NSW but I am loyal to QLD when it comes to origin so bring on the under dog status we love it ...

tigerholic's picture

Thanks Hardyards

I have a family that loves camping and this weekend is just the Missus and I. I expect some cold conditions but it is always good to get away.

As I said about my tips this week, I need to take a few roughies that I hope get up to get me back in range of the likes of Rocket and Tiger Girl.

Looking forward to a great match up tonight, good luck to both teams and their fans.

May the refs swallow their whistles.

Tiger

manyana's picture

This round looks like it picks itself. Lulling me into a false sense of security. I don't think it's going to be as easy as it seems, but here are my hopes for this round.
Panthers, Rabbits, Warriors, Roosters, Cowboys, Sharks, Storm, Dragons.
I have no particular reason for tipping these teams, only that i think they'll win.
We'll see if I'm laughing or crying at the end of this round. LOL.

Coach Potato's picture

I think there's some value Friday night if you think about it.

Panthers have 4 players either backing up or not playing. Raiders only 1. Cleary/Maloney/Campbell-Gillard/Peachey v Papalli
Not just that, but it's Friday night in Canberra, 6pm.
Was 16 degrees and dry last night in Melbourne.
10 degrees and raining in Canberra tomorrow.
Plenty of public servants coming straight from work.
Negligible travellers 3hours up the Hume.
$1.90 each of two with the above in mind.
You would think Raiders are ok value.

In the other game, Rabbits have 4 players who haven't trained with their team all week - Inglis, Gagai, Cook, and Crichton v Wallace and Arrow for Titans.
Although Souths are going by far the better, it would still be a big ask to win without 4 stars or trying to back up 48hrs later. @$3.50 Titans could be a wise move prior to the final team lists coming out.

shane's picture

can you tell me how many penalties were awarded in state of origin 1
i think it was only 5
whats yous say on the difference in nrl and state of orogin penalties

NuL1F3's picture

Good day to all. My tips this week:
Panthers
Rabbitohs
Warriors
Cowboys
Sharks
Storm
Dragons
I'm half expecting maybe a few upsets this weekend however, Panthers v Raiders could be pretty close, Sea Eagles on paper should have an advantage over the Warriors but after Manly's loss to the mighty Cowboys last week (and the hit and miss season they have had so far) I'm not sure they are the same team that defeated NZ in their last 3 meetings, Warriors are certainly not the same team they were last year but have they thrown all they had at it and are now running on fumes? I have a friend that reckons they are getting their second wind so, we will see. I think Sharks v Wests Tigers will be close as will be Storm v Broncos. One thing I am very sure of is we are in for some good battles.
Good luck to those in the comp!

Mary S's picture

You've missed one NuLiF3.
Who are you tipping for the Knights/Roosters game?
Cheers,
Mary

Dragons-fanboy's picture

Hello everyone, my tips for this week are:

Panthers by 2 - This game is going to be almighty close I think. Now even though the Panthers have four players backing up after 2 days, I still think that the Panthers will get up in this one, but the Raiders will make it incredibly hard for them to, Panthers have been resilient all year so... Panthers for me.

Rabbitohs by 20 - Rabbitohs to continue on their unbelieveable form with a big win over the Titans here.

Warriors by 8 - The venue was the one that decided this for me. Manly have taken this home game to Christchurch in New Zealand. Warriors seem to play better in NZ than in Australia so Warriors for me to bounce back here.

Roosters by 16 - Roosters to win big over the Knights here even though they have five players backing up. Though these five have more time than the Panthers' four so that will help. Roosters to strong.

Cowboys by 12 - Eels are absolutely woeful this season. Cowboys to make it back to back here.

Sharks by 10 - Sharks to bounce back here over the Tigers here in watch will be an entertaining game of footy.

Storm by 6 - Plenty of origin players backing up here. Thank god they get to stay in Melbourne aye. Storm to outclass the Broncos here.

And finally... Dragons by 14 - I don't think that the origin players will effect the Dragons here as we have a five day turnaround. We seriously got to get revenge on the Dogs after what happened last year, never gonna forget it. Got to bounce back here for that to clear away from my mind just a tad. But we should win here though, we should outplay the Bulldogs here. So, the mighty Dragons for me.

Awesome. Good luck with everyone's teams for this week and with everyone's tips for this week. Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dragons-fanboy's picture

as they* have a five day turnaround.

Cheers!!!!!!!

Daniel Whalley's picture

Where is Wally Lewis tips?

a's picture

Here’s my tips

Panthers by 1 I think the Panthers will get the Raiders in a thriller here

Rabbitohs by 2 I think that Rabbitohs should beat Title with or without there origin Stars

Warriors by 2 I think the Warriors will end Manly season here

Roosters by 6 I think the origin stars will back up against Knights

Cowboys by 8 I think the Cowboys should win back to back against the Eels

Sharks by 6 I think the Sharks will continue Tigers misery

Broncos by 1 No Slater no Chambers I can smell an upset here

Dragons by 6 Dragons will not lose back to back here

Coach Potato's picture

I know what you mean Shane. Makes the NRL penalties appear contrived. I mean, how could two teams discipline suddenly improve to almost perfect. Pretty much proves, it’s not discipline problems at all. It’s the refs deciding how many they blow.

NuL1F3's picture

Oh thank you Mary S, how did I skip over that one? I'm tipping Roosters.

Wally Lewis's picture

Sorry for the delay. It's a busy week.

a's picture

Good to see you comment Wally hopefully there is more on the future

newbie from perth's picture

Sa-wat-dee krup,

Another great SOO on Wednesday night. Being a West Aussie I don’t have any particular allegiance to either side (must admit to a degree of loyalty towards the Maroons though). Congratulations to the Blues on their win. I sort of expected it to be honest. New coach, new players and a new “enthusiasm” is what got ‘em there. Can’t wait for Game 2 to roll around. Until then however, we have a couple of weeks of normal games to get through. Round 14 is upon us and without any knowledge as to who is backing up from Wednesday night and who isn’t, let’s get the party started…

Raiders vs Panthers 40-60 @ GIO
Both these sides are “last start winners” to use racing lingo but the Panthers win over the Dragons holds just a wee bit more credit than the Raiders over Manly in my opinion. If the Panthers can get players back from SOO then they will (or should) win this. If not, who knows, the Raiders are a chance. Having said that, I might just assume that the Panthers will get some back and tip them in this one. Panthers for me.

Titans vs Rabbitohs 30-70 @ Cbus
The Titans’ poor loss against my BBB and Souths’ excellent win over the Sharks is basically all you need to take into account for this game. Even assuming they’ll be missing players this week, Souths’ have been just been playing too well the last month to see any result other than a win here. Let’s all do the “Bunny Hop”. Rabbitoh’s for me.

Manly vs Warriors 50-50 @ AMI
I’m finding it really hard to get a handle on Manly. Their form is starting to confuse the heck out of me. The Warriors’ form has slipped a bit lately too but at least they’ve had some extra time off, will be playing at home and should have Shaun Johnson back. After getting smacked by Souths in their last match, I reckon the “bounce back” factor will come into play. Warriors for me.

Knights vs Roosters 35-65 @ McDonald Jones
My BBB were lucky to fall in last week against those Tigers. Phew, talk about stress levels! Overall I was fairly happy with their effort if I completely forget about their errors. Geez they can be frustrating sometimes. If our SOO boys return, things might get back to a semblance of normality. Well I’m hoping it will. If so, we should have this one in the bag. And another thing … why can’t Tedesco play each week like he did on Wednesday night? I suppose the big occasion of SOO must bring out the best in some players. I think a lot of us were surprised with the Knights’ win last week. Mind you, it was against the Eels (no offence Baggy). Can they repeat a bit of that improved effort this week? I wouldn’t be totally shocked if they did but I would be totally shocked if they beat us. I’m thinking our edge in class will get us the points. Chooks in this one. Begurk! Begurk!

Eels vs Cowboys 30-70 @ TIO
Sorry Baggy, but as I mentioned last week I’m gonna have to jump ship with your BOYS until they start winning. Makes my tip pretty easy then. Cowboys for me. Yee-Hah!

Sharks vs Tigers 65-35 @ Southern Cross
This should be a cracker IMO. Unfortunately it’s not being shown on GEM so I’ll have to watch the other one. Anyways, both these sides will be trying to get some redemption for last week’s losses. Whatever the outcome, I reckon it should be a close one. The Sharks were a bit disappointing last week. No doubt they’ll want to get back on track. Getting it done at home would be a bonus for sure. Have to admit the Tigers were (probably) a little unlucky last week. Not sure if they let the opportunities slip or whether my BBB’s defence was the key (Dan The Man’s try saving tackle last week was a cracker. Thanks Bro’!). Based on what I saw from the Tigers, they’re gonna give the Sharkies a real run for their money. Hmmm, not really sure with this game. On paper the Sharks might have a little edge. And they’re at home. And they’re the favourites. Given the number of “upsets” this year, I should tip the Tigers. And I know it makes no sense but I will do exactly that. Tigers for me.

Storm vs Broncos 75-25 @ AAMI
This is the game I’ll be watching on Sunday. The Storm aren’t the force they once were are they? Mind you, neither are the Broncos. Both had a week off so no excuses regarding fitness and so on. Obviously the time off has given both the opportunity to re-focus. I’m thinking the Storm might just want it more than the Broncos. And they’ll be at home. Yeah, not the fortress it used to be but still a huge advantage. That and a fresh Cam Smith and possible return of their SOO stars has me tipping a moderately comfortable win for the Storm.

Bulldogs vs Dragons 40-60 @ ANZ
Enjoy your Monday holiday footy people. I know that WA and Qld don’t have the day off but no biggie. We’ll keep the country runnin’ (ha-ha). Those stats are telling me that the Dragons have lost their last 6 encounters with those Doggies. Mind you, I’ve never been one to take too much notice of “those sorts” of stats. Different teams, different conditions, different this’n’that. You know what I mean (I hope). While the Doggies have been competitive, not sure if their class can match that of the current Dragons outfit. And that’s acknowledging they got smacked by the Panthers 2 weeks ago. Nah, I still reckon the Dragons should be good enough, with or without (rumour has it) Ben Hunt.

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points!

It’s “Song of the Week” time again…

As promised, here’s something a little different and possibly not what you’d expect from me. A measly 525,874,923 views (so far) on YouTube. And a paltry 119,437 comments. Whaaaa? Great song. Can’t promise anything but you should enjoy it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3wKzyIN1yk

Cheers y’all…

P.S. I see the Coach is back. I could get into trouble saying this (I hope not) but putting all previous BS aside, I for one am looking forward to your viewpoint. Oh and another thing … are you still keeping those “streak” records of yours?

Mary S's picture

Great song, interesting visuals.
Might not always agree but always enjoy your take on the tipping.
Cheers,
Mary

TigerGirl's picture

My tips this week favourites except for my Tigers. My mum had a fall two weeks ago and passed away on Sunday in hospital. Not in the right place to think much about tipping 😥
Panthers
Rabbits
Warriors
Roosters
Cowboys
Storm
Dragons
TIGERS

Mary S's picture

So sorry to hear your news TigerGirl. Keep well.

a's picture

I'm so sorry to hear that Tigergirl

Baggy_Gee's picture

I don't envy your work schedule Wally. But keep on doing what your doing, you do make channel 9 more worth it, you and Andrew Johns minds are great to listen to.

a's picture

Yeah and kick Gus Gould off

Annette 's picture

Dear Thinker
My credibility as a tipster is locked in with yours. You're killing me! 😊
Annette

Mary S's picture

HI Annette,
Welcome to the comments and Thinkers site.
This season tips seem to be anybody's guess, including the experts, so you are not on your own!!
Some strike it luckier than others - just check the results of the tipsters on this site.

When I first became involved in tipping NRL, I followed Wally Lewis' tips, which is how I discovered The Thinker's website. It has been interesting to compare the expert's opinions!

Good luck this weekend!
Cheers,
Mary

manyana's picture

Sorry to hear of your loss TigerGirl.
I know it sounds extremely hard just now, but hang in there.
My thoughts are with you.
Manyana.

manyana's picture

Hi Mary, I enjoy going through the various tipsters columns to see what they say about each round.
It's very interesting to read why they've gone for a certain team.
Sadly for me, I usually take on board what they say & still select the wrong team. Ha, ha.!!

BigPeteBx's picture

Please accept my/our condolences from here TG.
Last Sunday was a very unhappy day, both tipping and by the fact my daughter's partner, lost his dad that morning.
Keep well and know that we have you in our hearts.
Big Pete in Cold Bx Country.

a's picture

Welcome aboard Annette hope you stay more In The future

christine's picture

Firstly Sorry to hear about your news tiger girl we are all here for you & thinking of you .
Second anyone who has to direct unwanted comments towards other people on this site is a cowardly thing to do .
Third my tips for rd 14 are
Penrith
souths
warriors
roosters
cowboys
sharks
storm
dragons
Hope you have a good weekend everyone p.s tiger girl incase you don't know I lost my mother three & a half years ago , but we are all friends on this site & we are all here for you Christine ...

christine's picture

Sorry Thinker I put my tips in 10 minutes late but seeing i'm not on the tipping ladder it doesn't really matter anyway ...

Coach Potato's picture

Hi newbie
Answer is yes. Will update soon after this round.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Did I just hear correctly, someone has spent 2 stints in the sinbin? How did that not become a straight send off?

Baggy_Gee's picture

That there is one of the problems with the BOYS. The Titan player was line running without purpose, he should have been ready to catch it no matter what. The BOYS are just going through the motions and hoping the year is over. Your right not to back them newbie it's like the warriors until they prove their worth they aren't worth the thinking about it.

Coach Potato's picture

Panthers had a player sent to the bin last night, 20 minutes after Perenara gave a warning to the Raiders that the next offender would be sent to the bin

Yes, that’s right. 20 minutes after he gave a warning to the other team (!??!)

It was also just a holding down to penalty,At this stage they are happy ( although hardly two seconds longer than any other tackle in history ). It was not a professional foul, it was on the halfway mark, and for repeated penalties - although the thing is, Panthers were given absolutely no warning about a sin bin - whereas the Raiders were given a warning. I think somehow the ref argued that the warning he gave was for both teams. It really is beyond laughable. The last couple of years, it’s been Bernard Sutton ruining the game in the video box. This year the video has been pretty good, with Bernard not allowed to have press the button anymore. Pretty clear that the answer is that various refs frivolously using the sin-bin need to receive the same fate.

Panthers still won the game in the last minute. Thankful for that because for all it seemed, this was one they were not meant to.

I can’t tell you how many times Penrith has been sin-binned this year, but it must be in the 8-10 range. Most of those games, they still won. Credit to this team that keeps on fighting back.

Coach Potato's picture

*at this stage they are happy* comment pasted itself from somewhere else. sorry about that!

mark ashford's picture

TigerGirl I'm sorry for your loss. Don't have any idea how old or how ill your Mom was but the loss of a parent always has a great effect on us.
Keep strong and just remember the good times.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Very very mixed emotions. So stoked that the BOYS got up, yay, so mad with myself for losing faith and backing those stinking Cowboys. Argh my life is over.

a's picture

I think the Cowboys season is nearly over here

Mary S's picture

Now Baggy, that's a bit harsh referring to my team as 'stinking Cowboys'!
I guess the majority of us made our choice on the exceptional play by the Cowboys last weekend, and the unsuccessful run your guys have had for some time.

Anyway Baggy, congrats to your team on their win and commiserations to all other Cowboy fans.

Coach Potato's picture

Parramatta were already gone before tonight, and have now pretty much guaranteed that the Cowboys will be joining them.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Just buyer remorse Mary, nothing more. I'm annoyed I jumped ship but their form line said that the local under 8's could have made it a close game. Oh well I'll back them next week and we'll get obliterated yet again. It's one of those season for us.

Coach Potato's picture

I'm guessing the comparison for Cowboys is 2013.
They were 4 wins after 13 rounds, and had to win 8 of the next 11.
They won 8 of the next 11.

This year the Cowboys were also 4 wins after 13 rounds, but now 4 wins after 14 rounds.
They now need to win 8 out of 10.
8 out of 10, after only 4 from 14.
Even the most optimistic would have to agree this is pretty improbable.

a's picture

Coach I guess you could right Manly of as well

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