Canberra Raiders vs Penrith Panthers – Friday night – GIO Stadium
Penrith have quietly gone about their business this year. They haven't conceded a try in their last two games, and their last win was a demolition of the team that's been on top of the ladder all season. That form leaves with you no choice but to pick them over the Raiders...except Origin. We have four Panthers backing up from Wednesday night (although Peachey shouldn't be too worn out). The risk is that the Panthers haven't had their halves with them during the preparation for this game, and Peter Wallace isn't available either. The Raiders have three games away from home after this match, so they'll be desperate to get the points here.
Verdict – Raiders by 4
Result – Panthers 23 defeated Raiders 22
Gold Coast Titans vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – Cbus Super Stadium
I think the Bunnies are the form team in the competition this season. Like the Panthers they have four players backing up from Origin, with Damien Cook potentially having the night off. The Titans have two big forwards backing up from Origin, and the Rabbitohs have a very formidable pack. Too big and too strong.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 10
Result – Rabbitohs 18 defeated Titans 16
Manly Sea Eagles vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday afternoon – AMI Stadium
Note the location tipsters. Manly have taken this home game to Christchurch, New Zealand. Manly missed the Trbojevic brothers badly last start and they'll be better if they are back. I'm a little concerned that the Warriors are teetering after that big loss to the Rabbitohs. I won't give up on them just yet though, as I get the feeling the Rabbitohs would do the same to most teams at the minute.
Verdict – Warriors by 4
Result – Warriors 34 defeated Sea Eagles 14
Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – McDonald Jones Stadium
I'll assume that the four Origin players at the Chooks back up. They did hold on for a brave win last weekend with none of them. The Knights were big winners against the Eels last weekend too, but the Eels are shot, and the Chooks did beat the Knights by 30 in round three.
Verdict – Roosters by 10
Result – Roosters 18 defeated Knights 16
Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – TIO Stadium
Parramatta have decided to think outside of the box by bringing forward their end of season review to the middle of the season. At first I thought it a little odd, but then I realised their season is effectively over anyway. A road trip to Darwin isn't likely to bring the best out of them either. Perhaps they should keep flying and head to Bali.
Verdict – Cowboys by 16
Result – Eels 20 defeated Cowboys 14
Cronulla Sharks vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – Southern Cross Group Stadium
This is one game where Origin is likely to have no impact at all – I can't imagine Holmes needs a rest. The Sharks were outclassed last weekend but I'm talking up the Rabbitohs form. Prior to that the Sharks were on quite a roll, and I think they'll bounce back here.
Verdict – Sharks by 8
Result – Sharks 24 defeated Tigers 16
Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – Sunday afternoon – AAMI Park
Will Chambers may be unavailable here, and James Roberts walked off the field on Wednesday night like a man who needs some time to recover. I assume a few Queenslanders that travelled to Melbourne for Origin will hang around for this. Wayne Bennett would love to get one over Craig Bellamy, but the Storm have a compelling record against the Broncos and I see no reason to doubt them.
Verdict – Storm by 8
Result – Storm 32 defeated Broncos 16
Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Monday afternoon – ANZ Stadium
Canterbury can be thankful that the Eels are such a rabble. Canterbury are a rabble too, just slightly less rabbly. The Dragons can bounce back after the loss last start, and turn the Bulldogs into rubble.
Verdict – Dragons by 14
Result – Dragons 18 defeated Bulldogs 16
Wally Lewis - round fourteen selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
- Raiders vs PANTHERS
- Titans vs RABBITOHS
- SEA EAGLES vs Warriors
- Knights vs ROOSTERS
- Eels vs COWBOYS
- SHARKS vs Tigers
- STORM vs Broncos
- Bulldogs vs DRAGONS
Comments
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Yeah I know, but I dare not say a thing about Manly. That would be way too insensitive of me.
Submitted by Mary S on
Yes Coach, I would have to agree with you on this occasion, of Cowboys winning 8 out of 10 is VERY optimistic, but stranger things have happened.
As a fan you can only hope for the stranger things to happen!!
Cheers
Mary
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
2009 Eels did a similar amazing run. I wouldn't write anyone off yet except the BOYS. We are finished this year.
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Yes Baggy G - I know the feeling too well, about season progression,
if progress is what we call it.
Manly has never won the wooden spoon, but I guess they'll win what games they need, to avoid it mate.
With issues they've faced off the field, I'm wondering if unavailable dollars, precludes them from winning certain matches.
Taking home games away, is a revenue spinner for clubs, if they are prepared to do. Sometimes it doesn't pay off.
Cheers mate and take it steady - Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Nice thought Coach about not being insensitive - good to see that you may have mellowed a bit, since your last posts here, before taking a vacation from the "heat of the moments".
The Nepean Spud has re-emerged and his Mulgoa Lads are doing well!
You keep well also - Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Hahaha 'a' - did you really need to prompt Coach about writing Manly off.
Manly wrote themselves off from the 8, a few weeks ago.
However, they might just make things difficult for some, when State of Origin is completed. Especially for those looking at the 7th or 8th spot. Injuries don't help either, but all teams are copping it.
Cheers - Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Hang in there Baggy - a close Eels friend of mine, said there is talk that Maguire might get offered your coaching role, after his panel input is completed. If he considers and accepts, it's his. Remembering, Madge is only NZ's national coach at present.
I don't mind Brad Arthur, but he has issues at his back and maybe even knives.
Keep well old Son - Big Pete
Submitted by Steel Panther on
I watched the game yesterday Big Pete. Manly turned in an average performance. DCE 5th tackle kicking poor at best and on two occasions Hodgkinson missed tackles that led to tries. Losing your hooker early didn't help either. Interestingly Manly had won 13 of the last 14 games between the two sides.
Good win for your BOYS Baggy. I didn't see the game but there's a lot in the media about the refs harshly calling a couple of Cowboys "forward" passes but no mention of this on here. Cowboys have the Warriors next week and I think the home side will win.
Submitted by a on
Baggy Eels can still make it if they go in undefeated for the rest of the season
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Hi Mary S
Thanks for not thinking I'm putting anyone's team down.
It's mathematically possible, but whenever that term comes into it, it's pretty much mission impossible. Even the top teams won't win 8 out of 10.
Cowboys proved it can be done, but don't forget, they were 5 years younger than they are now.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
'a', that's as likely as Panthers losing every game for the rest of the season, and therefore missing the finals.
That's just not going to happen.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Interesting round so far, Panthers, Rabbits, Roosters & Sharks winning by just a whisker. Warriors, Eels, & Storm by a bit more but not convincing wins.
Post SOO the whistles came out along with the send offs.
We watch & love a game called Rugby League we don't want to watch a game where the ref's egos are the deciding factor.
Baggy your Eels earned their win against a hapless Cows side.
Thurston, Scott, Hess, Morgan, Taumalomo where was their game.
Cowboys are done & dusted for 2018
Submitted by a on
Yeah agree Mark O Niel needs to go
Submitted by Coach Potato on
To newbie (and anyone else interested)
As neither two teams from tomorrow's game are on winnng streaks, this week's Streak Table is ready.
For anyone unaware of my theory on streaks, it goes something like this:
For as far back as 1908, and every single year since then, the winner of the Premiership has had one of the top 3 Streak Scores through the regular season. It could be just coincidence that this occurs
, or it may just remain unexplained. This year could even disprove my theory, but then that would still only be one year out of 110. Until such time, it's got a perfect record.
So what is the Streak Score?
# It's the sum total of a team's best three winning streaks through the regular season
# Single wins cannot be counted. Eg W..L..W..L would be a nil score
# Only three streaks count regardless of whether a team has more.
Eg if over a season a team has winning streaks of 2, 3, 3, 2, and 4 - the Streak Score only includes the best three (3,3, and 4 = 10)
# If a team has less than three streaks, single wins still don't count.
So as I say, the Premier will always seem to be in the top3 streak scores. The Streak Table for week 14 (regardless of tomorrow's result) is:
1st Rabbitohs .... 10
2nd Panthers ...... 9
Eq3rd Sharks ......... 8
Eq3rd Dragons ...... 8
_________________
5th Roosters ..... 7
6th Broncos ...... 6
Eq7th Storm ......... 5
Eq7th Tigers ......... 5
Eq7th Warriors .... 5
Eq10th Knights ..... 4
Eq10th Raiders ..... 4
Eq12th Sea Eagles .2
Eq12th Eels .......... 2
Eq12th Titans ....... 2
Eq15th Cowboys .. 0
Eq15th Bulldogs ... 0
Interesting points for me are that Sharks are higher than the real table reads, while Storm and Warriors are lower placed than the real table.
Submitted by Anonymous on
What a load of pointless dribble
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No worries.
I think, though, we would all be happier to hear your own opinions and thoughts on the game instead of only hearing negative comments - seemingly 100% about myself.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
How did yonder streak theory play out last year Coach? I forgot how to put it together and construct the sheet. Sandbox there isn't interested in listening to anyone but himself, I would treat it the same way as the interaction between water and ducks backs.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
@ Coach
Thanks for the “streak” update. The fact of the matter is that it has proven a successful guide as to the GF winner and those of us who like a bit of a dabble (read bet) on this particular outcome, find it a worthwhile piece of extra ammunition in our attempt to win a few sheckles at the end of the year. Nice work Coach – I for one appreciate the effort. Looking forward to further updates. Cheers bro’…
“… let the waters gently wash past …”
P.S. Enjoy the day off people (except WA & Qld) - lucky buggers (ha-ha).
Submitted by Mary S on
I found the 'streak theory' interesting thanks Coach, and will look forward to how it 'pans out' for the remainder of the season.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Hi Baggy
2017 Streak Table
1st/ Storm - 5,3,4,7 = 16
2nd/ Eels - 2,3,2,6,3 = 12
Eq3rd/ Broncos - 6,2,2,3 = 11
Eq3rd/ Panthers - 4,7 = 11
--------------------------------
Eq5th/ Roosters - 4,2,2,3,3,3 = 10
Eq5th/ Sharks - 4,4,2 = 10
Eq5th/ Sea Eagles - 3,2,5,2 = 10
Eq8th/ Cowboys - 2,2,2,4 = 8
Eq8th / Raiders - 3,2,3 = 8
Eq10th / Dragons - 5,2 = 7
Eq10th / Rabbitohs - 2,2,3 = 7
Eq12th / Bulldogs - 3,3 = 6
Eq12th / Titans - 3,3 = 6
14th / Warriors - 2,2 = 4
15th / Knights - 3 = 3
16th/ Tigers - 0
Yes, Eels, Panthers, and Broncos had all been certified at Round 26 as a live chance, and the Cowboys were not. The theory never tells of guaranteed Grand Final places, only of the winner.
Pre-Grand Final, part of me was thinking, wow, the myth is finally going to get busted - and the other part of me was thinking - oh no, those poor Cowboys fans. If only they knew they just have no chance.
Submitted by manyana on
Hi Couch Potato, the streak theory is quite interesting.
I'll be watching to see if the streaks table is accurate.
You've obviously put quite a bit of work into the idea.
Well done.
Cheers, manyana.
Submitted by pabdul on
Coach that’s quite a stat but I had my doubts to 1995 when the bulldogs won from 6th
Manly won I think 15 straight till the roosters knocked them off
The Raiders won plenty and so did the broncos
So I’m saying that manly Canberra and Brisbane all had superior streak records not sure though maybe you’ll prove me wrong
Submitted by manyana on
Whoops, sorry Coach, typo from me. Sorry.
manyana.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
1995, you're right Padbul.
Well done for knowing your footy.
I'll keep digging to see if this was a 1 in 100 year.
Happy for the theory to be 99% accurate.
A year where 20 teams were involved, and the Bulldogs only managed the 9th best score.
Who would also have known that in 1995, they had the same finals format as today - 1 v 4, 2 v 3, losers getting a 2nd chance and 5 v 8, 6 v 7 sudden death. How did it get canned for so long?
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Because the other system threw up some surprises sometimes, where third and fourth got spanked by fifth and sixth, then sweating on first and second getting the win made it a good weekend.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No worries, Manyana.
It's a play on words, and couch is part of it.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Coach take no notice of the dribbler. Most of us here appreciate your record keeping efforts.
Submitted by Mary S on
Picture certainly indicates couch, Coach!!
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Evenin Awesome J in Canberra.
Congrats, as me thinks/seems to observe, you got the Poifect Round in Round 14.
Cheers and keep cool kid.
Big Pete
Submitted by a on
Bulldogs are unlucky once again
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Sorry J Awesome - I retract that statement.
The eye op from last Tuesday is deceiving me.
You backed Eels, but not Panthers
Recovering Cobbers!!
Have a good week all - Big Pete
Submitted by mark ashford on
Mary S. If you look closely at Coach's image and following your thought pattern then he should be "lounge chair potato with cap"
Doesn't really work does it.
Submitted by Mary S on
No Mark - it doesn't!
Submitted by mark ashford on
Ha Ha Mary nice to have a bit of fun on the site. Makes it what it is.
Good evening to you!
Submitted by Dragons-fanboy on
My prayers are with your mother TigerGirl. I wish you all the best.
Cheers!!!!!!!
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