Round fifteen selections

Parramatta Eels vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Thursday night – ANZ Stadium

In round 13 the Rabbitohs took on the Sharks without their four Origin players. They won anyway, against a team on a roll. In round 14 the Rabbitohs rested their four Origin players against the Titans. They won again. Those four Origin players are back on Thursday night. I can't see them losing. The Eels surprised almost everyone with a win last weekend. No surprises here.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 16

Result – Rabbitohs 42 defeated Eels 24

North Queensland Cowboys vs New Zealand Warriors – Friday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

A lot of people are scratching their heads when it comes to the Cowboys and their season thus far. To my eye they just look off the pace – half a yard slower than most of their opponents. Half a yard may not seem like much, but over the course of 80 minutes it takes its toll. I don't know if that explains the Cowboys performances entirely, but it's my explanation. The Warriors by comparison, are one of the quickest teams in the NRL. I should add that I'm heading north this weekend and will be at the game on Friday night. A drink in the sheds with the Cowboys after the game is on the cards for Mr Thinker...if the Cowboys win, so I hope I'm wrong.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result – Warriors 23 defeated Cowboys 16

Sydney Roosters vs Penrith Panthers – Friday night – Allianz Stadium

The Panthers have made their home ground a fortress this season (6 wins from 6 games). Their away record is much less formidable – they've lost games away to the Bulldogs, Sharks and Cowboys, and the teams they've beaten away from home (Cowboys, Eels, Knights and Raiders) are all outside the top eight. The Roosters aren't firing, but they're better than the teams the Panthers have beaten on the road this year. That said the Panthers should be the favourites here...I'm just not tipping them. Gosh I'm confusing sometimes.

Verdict – Roosters by 4

Result – Roosters 32 defeated Panthers 6

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday afternoon – Belmore Sports Ground

A short turnaround for the Bulldogs but they will take plenty of positives out of their narrow loss to the Dragons on Monday. The Titans have lost Jarrod Wallace this weekend and the Bulldogs aren't short of big forwards. Given the venue I expect the Dogs can grind out a victory in the old fashioned way.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 4

Result – Titans 32 defeated Bulldogs 10

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday night – WIN Stadium

Just three teams have beaten the Dragons this season, and they are second, third and fourth on the NRL ladder. That's pretty good form. Manly gave their backers hope for a while there, but it was clearly a false dawn. I imagine they'll jag a win here and there throughout the remainder of the season, but finals football is beyond them. Winning this game is beyond them too.

Verdict – Dragons by 14

Result – Dragons 32 defeated Sea Eagles 8

Cronulla Sharks vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night – Southern Cross Group Stadium

I thought the Broncos were competitive enough against the Storm while the Sharks took an age to get over the Tigers last weekend. Darius Boyd plays his 150th NRL game this weekend (I'm surprised it's not more) and he'll be focusing on the Broncos from here on in. That Broncos bench has enough size in it to match the Sharks pack. An upset on the cards.

Verdict – Broncos by 2

Result – Broncos 20 defeated Sharks 16

Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm – Sunday afternoon – McDonald Jones Stadium

Much interest here will be in the battle of the fullbacks, with Ponga looking likely as the long term replacement for Billy Slater as the QLD (and probably Australian) fullback for many years to come. He's doing some incredible things in a struggling team. These sides met in round six and the Storm gave the Knights a footballing lesson. Another schooling looks the logical outcome.

Verdict – Storm by 14

Result – Storm 28 defeated Knights 10

Wests Tigers vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – Campbelltown Stadium

The Raiders have been in five close games this season and lost four of them. They can be a frustrating team to support. Those frustrated fans welcome back Josh Hodgson on Sunday, but it may take him a while to regain anything like the form we have seen from him previously. Given the venue I expect the Tigers to make a game of this, and if it's close I can't tip the Raiders so it's Luke Brooks with the field goal and...

Verdict – Tigers by 1

Result – Raiders 48 defeated Tigers 12

Wally Lewis - round fifteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • Eels vs RABBITOHS
  • Cowboys vs WARRIORS
  • ROOSTERS vs Panthers
  • BULLDOGS vs Titans
  • DRAGONS vs Sea Eagles
  • SHARKS vs Broncos
  • Knights vs STORM
  • TIGERS vs Raiders

Comments

Coach Potato's picture

world cup tip

baggy 5/8
Bx 4/8
a 4/8
Coach 2/8

pabdul's picture

It’s not about whether you find the streak theory interesting or not but to me it just states the obvious
If you don’t win consistently you won’t make the top 4 so you need to put wins together to have enough points like the top 3 in your theory just happens to be the top 3 in the NRL.
Also if you get to the finals and you haven’t rated highly enough on the streak theory the chances are your not suddenly going to get on a streak against the best teams in the finals because they were better than you and you can’t win the grand final without a minimum streak of 3
That’s why only one team has broken the trend because it’s normally one of the most consistent teams win the comp

manyana's picture

Hi Coach, which team do you support?
I'm a Broncos supporter, but don't hold that against me.
lol.
With tipping I go with my head, not my heart, although that hasn't worked out too well for me either lol.
I hope you're not a Doggies supporter, because I've just put them into my "do not tip again" basket. Of course it depends who they're playing.
Must say I was very disappointed with the Panthers effort.
Happy to exchange some light-hearted banter any time.
In my "family" tipping competition, if it looks like someone is going to get a perfect round, we send "the Black Jelly Bean" curse. I always try & do my best in any tipping competition, but if the team I've tipped gets beaten, so be it. As with all sports, you must learn to lose gracefully, & win with even more grace.
Cheers to all, Manyana.

manyana's picture

Hi NuLiF3, Yep, agree, go with the gut feeling.
Cheers, Manyana.

christine's picture

Coach
I also agree with you about storm this season they certainly don't seam to be the force they have always been in previous years just look at the ladder they are not front runners this season if anything I think storm are starting to unravel ...

Rocket Ryan's picture

The picture says it all really

a's picture

Manyana Coach supports Panthers

Baggy_Gee's picture

http//www.nrl.com/news/2018/06/16/barrett-fumes-over-fainu-decision/
now I do feel sorry for Trent, He's stuck with someone else's problem, and is trying to dig his way out of a very deep bear pit, but if we allow hard cases to get allowances, why even try to have a deterrent. I think that Manly are in a really bad spot over the next few years, but like the Bulldogs it is a problem of their own design. I hope that they don't lose anymore players this year and that they can rebuild but like the Parra saga, and the Storm mischief club start to learn that they are ultimately responsible for back ended deals, paying overs for non performing players, and for the breeches that they allow to happen.

manyana's picture

Ah!!!! I tipped them, but was very disappointed with how they played.
I hope that they can pick themselves up, brush themselves off, & start winning again.

Obviously you didn't yell loud enough. Ha, ha!!

a's picture

Yeah Manly are very little hope of making finals like Bulldogs and Cowboys

christine's picture

I've just changed my tip from tigers to raiders , i'm not on the tipping ladder so it doesn't really matter any way ...

Rick's picture

Hi Christine I still appreciate you putting them up each week as I always refer to them and your’s too ‘a’. Cheers.

Coach Potato's picture

Hi Padbul
I appreciate your dissection of Streak Theory.
I counter, though, to show that your scalpel is blunt.

You are right that most winners are from the top4, and everyone knows that already, but below are some examples that showed top2, even Minor Premier was not going to cut it, based on Streak Theory.

(If you want to look for a better way of narrowing down the winner to just 3 teams, and prove that it works, year upon year, decade upon decade, century upon century, then please hold your steady pencil to the drawing board. I wait enthusiastically in anticipation).

2017 ladder position (Streak Score on the right)

1/Melbourne 16
2/Sydney 10
3/Brisbane 11
4/Parramatta 12
5/Cronulla 10
6/Manly 10
7/Penrith 11
8/Nth Qld 8

*Roosters 2nd and host a Prelim, but both yourselves and Cowboys were wasting their time. Only equal 5th, and 8th best scores.

2015
1/ Sydney 17
2/ Brisbane 15
3/ Nth Qld 15
4/ Melbourne 7

*Storm win week 1 and get to host a Prelim against the Cowboys but somehow no match. Streak score of 7 eventhough top4, just not good enough.

2014
1/Sydney 13
2/Manly 10
3/South's 11 **** Premiers
4/Penrith 10
7/Canterbury 12

*Manly and Penrith both finish top4 but neither in the top3 streaks.

2005
1/Parramatta 10
2/St George 15
3/Brisbane 12
4/Wests 13 **** Premiers
5/Cowboys 9

*Parramatta win the minor premiership with an incredibly low streak score of 10. Not in the top 3. Tigers finish 4th, but with 2nd best streak score. Cowboys finish 5th, but with only a streak score of 9.

pabdul's picture

Coach
I don’t have to come up with a better theory I’m not trying to outdo or disprove your theory but to me it’s the same as saying a team outside the top 3 streak teams has never won the premiership
It’s a great but obvious theory that didn’t surprise me
But now I’m intrigued because I only have 4 teams left that I believe can win and only 2 of them are in your top 3.

mark ashford's picture

Hi Coach. Was off the air yesterday so was unable to wish HB to you. Hope you had a great day.

Coach Potato's picture

So name your three now then.
What is your footy intellect waiting for?

tigerholic's picture

Evening Folks

That effort from the Tigers will do me, can anyone suggest what team I can follow for the rest of my days.

Have your digs now folks because the way I'm feeling nothing could piss me off more.

Cheers

Coach Potato's picture

It’s not about just being consistent and in the top4. Your Roosters didn’t rate last year. I should have filled you in before the prelim.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Eels, Cowboys, bulldogs. what we aren't chasing the top three chances for the spoon?

Baggy_Gee's picture

Come over to the right side of the road tiger, the BOYS are still out west, we are a family club and are about to have the bestest Stadium in Australia. We would love to have you.

a's picture

Baggy Ger yes they are but truth is all 4 teams need rebuilding

a's picture

Michael Morgan out of the season Cowboys are no chance of making finals

christine's picture

No worries rick will do that for you but I worn you I always second guess myself & change one or two tips that you all see & several more times that you don't but had I not have changed to raiders today from tigers my score would be worse this week ...

christine's picture

Tiger
All I can say is you have fifteen other teams too choose from , what shade suits you best ???

Rocket Ryan's picture

Boo hoo poor tigerholic looks like baggy's welcomes you with open arms so the losing culture won't be a problem for you there you should fit right in but what will we call you heel holic

Coach Potato's picture

So many self-confessed die-hard fans when their team is winning, will sell their support for a dime if the team starts falling to pieces out in the middle.

Forget about supporting another team, I say, if you'd only sell them off too at the next blink of an eye.

Try Pick'n'Stick instead of Pick'n'Flick.

Mary S's picture

Hi Tigerholic,
Unfortunately being a fan of any team, in any sport, has it's 'ups' and 'downs'
When your team is on the 'up', we like to celebrate and crow about it, and even start commenting again.
When it is on the 'down' we feel let down and despondent.

This week your team did not play well enough to beat the Raiders, or you can look at it from the fact of the Raiders stepped their game up this week by several notches, enabling them to win handsomely!!! TheTigers might do the same next week!

All I can say is, any of these guys (and gals now) give their bodies a fair hammering for our benefit/entertainment. Hate to think what their arthritis is going to be like in 30 years time!!!

Cheers to all,
Mary

tigerholic's picture

Evening Everyone

Thanks for the offer Baggy, thanks Christine for your wisdom, thanks Mary S for your level head.

Thanks Coach for SFA, good to see the old self is well and kicking.

Ah Rocket, you had to come in with your miserable 2 cents worth, come next Sunday night around 10.30, I'm going to enjoy ramming your boo hoo comments all the way up your poo poo.

Don't worry folks, this Tigers fan wears his heart on his sleeve and in good and bad I am a Tiger for life. I couldn't follow any other team for a few reasons:
Rocket Ryan follows the ponies
Baggy and his Eels coming last
The Penny Panthers have Couch and for that I feel sorry for them
Mary S has the Cowboys covered
Padpul and his Roosters, don't like them much
There are plenty more but my T1gers rego plates will be worth a lot of money ONE DAY.

Enjoy your week folks, bring on Origin 2.

Tiger

a's picture

NRL has today announced that Brisbane will hosting all 8 games of 1 round

Mary S's picture

Heard that on the news 'a' about the 8 games at Suncorp.
Think they said Round 10 next year with 'extras' included on the ticketing.

Coach Potato's picture

Wait a minute. Have I missed something?

Am I being thrown under the bus here just for saying toughen up, this is your team (all be it, with a little flavour)?

I would hope there is some balanced support out there for myself on that note.

Coach Potato's picture

I guess if NSW lose, there’s always Qld

Coach Potato's picture

Oh I get it.
SFA as in - Sweet F.A? as in resorting to swearing at me, and yet you find allegiance?

I’ll let it pass.
I’ll choose class.

tigerholic's picture

Coach
Queensland will never be an option, toughen up old mate

Tiger

Coach Potato's picture

I was thinking about your options ..

a's picture

I guessing you have written Cowboys of now Thinker

Coach Potato's picture

..I was suggesting since you were giving up on your team, why not include your State.

christine's picture

Tiger
Stay loyal & true to your team , they are your colours , just like they are your identity on this site they will come good when benji returns so don't be disheartened ...

tigerholic's picture

Hey Coach/Christine

Appreciate your comments, this site allows one to vent and air their feelings with fellow supporters of our great game.

I'm not sure that having Origin on a Sunday is a big hit.

What does everyone think??

Tiger

Mary S's picture

Going to be interesting to find out Tigerholic, on the change to a Sunday for Origin, and the crowd that change attracts.

From a financial point, NRL may consider that more families may come, thus having the younger generation's excitement flow into the future of rugby.

Maybe it gives a more defined break to other players.
As decisions made by the hierarchy are often difficult to comprehend, my reasoning could be as good as any!!!!

Coach Potato's picture

I was hoping it would be a day time Origin. Imagine the parties, BBQs etc. Sure that kind of thing will still happen, but don’t they realise people go to work the next day? Why didn’t they choose Saturday night, we could have had a few without worrying about the next day

Coach Potato's picture

Coach tips Mexico to beat Germany. A warning shot fired to the rest of the ... 4-person comp.

mark ashford's picture

HEY Coach & Rocket ease up on Tiger.
I live on Bribie Island about an hour or so north of Tiger's domicile and I could see his tongue-in-cheek from all the way up here.

"a" yes every game of whatever round will be played at Suncorp next year. Not sure how much punishment Suncorp can take. Hope the groundsmen (or should it be groundspeople) are on their game.

mark ashford's picture

Coach I couldn't agree more. All origin games AND the GF should be played as afternoon fixtures on a Saturday or Sunday.
With the current 8.15 pm kickoff or sometimes later how can you take your kids to the game or let them stay up to watch tv.
Origin is June/July and GF September not too hot to play.
NRL & ARL need to resist Fox and #9 and probably KFC to make it more family friendly.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Nice call on the mex-ger game. I went with the conventional wisdom that the German league being strong should work for them. Good on the Mexicans for playing to a plan and getting over the favourites. Take note NSW and AUS, stick to the plan and win the up coming games Saturday and Sunday.

Coach Potato's picture

They are getting closer. When was the last Grand Final played on the last Sunday in September. Must have been in the 80s?

mark ashford's picture

Not a great Soccer fan anymore but watched part of a replay of the Aussie/France game. Video ref penalty against the Aussies and the diving of the French players was beyond me. Why don't they use the video to penalize diving players and get this rubbish out of what was once a great game.

Coach Potato's picture

I kinda feel if you have a whinge about your own team it should leave you open to be put back into your place as a supporter - and so that’s what I did. All good.

manyana's picture

Hey Mark, I live on Bribie too. Been here for over 25 years.
A beautiful place to live.
I'm almost a local. ????????

mark ashford's picture

He was joking Coach, just like you are a rusted on Penrith fan so is he with the Tiges and me with the Broncs.
Surprised you missed that one, you don't normally miss many.

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