Round sixteen selections

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Parramatta Eels – Thursday night – WIN Stadium

First plays last but this isn't a formality, with a fair chunk of the Dragons seventeen backing up (and backing up quickly) from representative duties. Tyson Frizell won't play, but the other eight have been named. It's a big ask, but the Eels are a big basket case. There could be a few at Parramatta (Norman and Hayne spring to mind) who might be playing to pick up new contracts elsewhere next season, but that doesn't mean they'll play like a team.

Verdict – Dragons by 8

Result – Dragons 20 defeated Eels 18

New Zealand Warriors vs Cronulla Sharks – Friday night – Mt Smart Stadium

On paper the Sharks look like they have an edge in the forwards here, and they've rushed the big teddy bear Aaron Woods straight into the seventeen – I expect he'll go well. Valentine Holmes at fullback will be wanting to impress too. There's no doubt he wants a gig somewhere as a fullback, and a few teams (Cowboys definitely and Broncos probably) will be keeping an eye on him. The Warriors have been tough to beat at home this season but I'm with the visitors here.

Verdict – Sharks by 4

Result – Sharks 18 defeated Warriors 15

Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm – Friday night – Adelaide Oval

This game heads back to Adelaide again and this time around Cooper Cronk will be facing off against the Storm. The absence of Waerea-Hargreaves and Cordnor for the Chooks have me leaning purple, although the Storm are missing a few big boppers themselves. If Asofa-Solomona can't find a functioning airplane I'd lean the other way, and if Billy Slater is rested I'd lean heavily the other way, but based on the teams as named it's the Storm for me. For those of you that don't have to tip as early as I do I urge you to keep your eye out for team changes.

Verdict – Storm by 4

Result – Storm 9 defeated Roosters 8

Penrith Panthers vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday afternoon – Panthers Stadium

The Panthers have named their Origin players and they should back up (although Maloney isn't getting any younger). Just as importantly Kikau returns and he adds an X factor in the middle. Manly look like a team that have put a line through their season already, and they haven't beaten Penrith at Penrith since 2011.

Verdict – Panthers by 10

Result – Sea Eagles 18 defeated Panthers 10

Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Saturday night – McDonald Jones Stadium

The Knights don't start as warm favourites too often but this Bulldogs side is barely recognisable. While this doesn't look like much of a game the Novacastrians will be out in force and the Knights will give the locals a good night out. And Ponga.

Verdict – Knights by 14

Result – Bulldogs 36 defeated Knights 16

Brisbane Broncos vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday night – Suncorp Stadium

What a difference a Hodgson makes. The Raiders were an entirely different proposition with his return last round, and if they bring that form again they'll be winning here too. If they did I wouldn't be surprised but I want to see it happen before I'm convinced that the Raiders are still a top eight proposition. Their only two wins away from home this season are against the Cowboys and the Tigers, and I think the Broncos are better than that. Not much better mind you. Could be the game of the round this one.

Verdict – Broncos by 2

Result – Broncos 26 defeated Raiders 22

Wests Tigers vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – Leichhardt Oval

The return of Robbie Farah couldn't be better timed, as he's back for a Sunday afternoon at the picturesque Leichhardt Oval. But he's not the only new face at the Tigers, with Moses Mbye slotting into the fullback role. Handy inclusions and the Tigers are warm favourites, but I'm pretty keen on the Titans in an upset here. It's a good looking pack of forwards and a fairly settled backline, taking on a team that may take a week or two to get their combinations right.

Verdict – Titans by 4

Result – Titans 30 defeated Tigers 12

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs North Queensland Cowboys – Sunday afternoon – Barlow Park

I was lucky enough to be up north for the Cowboys narrow loss to the Warriors in round 15, and the general feeling in the room was that the loss that night spelled the end of their finals aspirations this season. I was also lucky enough to be up north for the Cowboys narrow loss to the Rabbitohs earlier this season. The Cowboys were a little unlucky that night, but back then they had something to play for, and the only thing they have left to play for is pride. I doubt that's enough against a genuine premiership contender. Note the location though folks. Maybe, just maybe, the extra travel for the Bunnies gives the Cowboys a sniff here. I can't tip them though.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 10

Result – Rabbitohs 21 defeated Cowboys 20

Wally Lewis - round sixteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • DRAGONS vs Eels
  • Warriors vs SHARKS
  • Roosters vs STORM
  • PANTHERS vs Sea Eagles
  • KNIGHTS vs Bulldogs
  • BRONCOS vs Raiders
  • TIGERS vs Titans
  • RABBITOHS vs Cowboys

Comments

a's picture

Well done NuL1F3 I am to taking the Rabbitohs but will be supporting the Cowboys no matter if I tip them or not

mark ashford's picture

Coach thank you for the above post.
Reading through it I agree with every word.
Sometimes my love of the Broncos or the Maroons takes me to places I shouldn't be.
Rivalry in our great game is a good thing and a healthy thing.
Looking forward to #19 and maybe, hopefully, need it to be, and praying for it....some bragging rights.
cheers mate

Coach Potato's picture

Papers say Woods joining Sharks makes them a definite Premiership threat now. Really?!

In his 8 years at the Tigers, he lead the forwards to missing out on finals the last 7 times. Then joins Bulldogs this year leading the forwards to the bottom end of the table. Now joins Sharks and he’s suddenly a lucky charm?

I guess it’s possible, but to me, his lazy butt-to-the-defence cart ups is a sign of poor attitude and it’s attitude that has brought down whatever team he plays for.
I wish the Sharks the best of luck, but mostly because now it seems like they will need a fair bit of it.

Coach Potato's picture

No worries.

Two weeks in a row, two big games at Subcorp.

Revenge for Origin III last year.
Payback would be pretty nice.

Revenge for NRL finals week 2 last year. Payback, an absolute must.

mark ashford's picture

As Coach has said Woods is not a game winner.
His SOO appearances have been ordinary at least.
For the Tigers he did little, for the Dogs he did less.
He's a big unit but always seemed more concerned about his hair.
I remember when Delilah cut off Samsons hair and he was lost.
Maybe now Woods has cut his hair it may be the reverse.
Good luck Sharkies

mark ashford's picture

Ha Coach. yes those games will be interesting. I think the Broncos with their less providence of SOO players may be a bit hard to beat.
I wouldn't be surprised if SOO 3 is yours, you have a great team.
QLD have a habit of coming back after a series loss. Looking forward to 2019 when our youngsters will give it to you.

Coach Potato's picture

In all honesty, I wouldn’t be surprised if Origin III attendance is way down because of the dead rubber, and attendance for Broncos - Panthers rematch is way up.

mark ashford's picture

Coach I think both games will be well supported.
SOO to give us some hope for next year.
Broncos to beat to beat Raiders at home, then Broncs to beat Titans away. SOO3. Then Broncs to beat Warriors at home. Then Broncs to beat Panthers at home.
Not a bad run in to bragging rights.

newbie from perth's picture

Sa-wat-dee krup,

Got a feeling some people think “oh no, not another novel from Newbie” when I put my weekly ramblings up here so might just make it short and sweet this week (it's still pretty long though). Without really knowing who’s coming back from Origin or who’s getting rested or who’s injured, I’ll put forward these “pearls of wisdom” for this week’s games. Take them at face value!

P.S. Only found out the Boss used the term “X Factor” when I logged in tonight and read his take on the Panthers/Manly game. Hand on heart I’d already decided to use it as well, albeit in the Tigers/Titans game. Honest!

Dragons vs Eels 80-20 @ WIN
The Dragons were very good in their last match against Manly and showed their true class. The Eels were pretty good against the Bunnies for a short time and then got smacked. They might give this a bit of a shake in the first 20-30 but the Dragons will be too strong here at home.

Warriors vs Sharks 55-45 @ Mt Smart
If I’m not mistaken (I could be though) the Warriors seem to play better away compared to playing at home. They had some guys playing in last weekend's internationals but not Roger Tuivasa-Sheck or Shaun Johnson, so those two will be nice and fresh. The Sharks need to get back on track to consolidate their position in the top 8. I note that they have won 3 of their last 5 against the Warriors and as away underdogs they’re 3-0. With their Origin players coming back and the “new bloke” Woods getting a start, I might just go the Sharkies in this one.

Roosters vs Storm 50-50 @ Adelaide Oval
Game of the round! Yeah Baby! Last couple of games between these two have been close. I’m a bit worried on fitness of returning players and I’m a bit worried about what Cam Smith might do. Being at a neutral Adelaide Oval and what my BBB did against the Panthers 2 weeks ago is good enough for me. Begurk! Begurk!

Panthers vs Manly 70-30 @ Panthers Stadium
Penrith were found wanting against my BBB but pretty sure they’ll atone for that here at Panther Park (Stadium whatever), even without Freddy Mercury (aka RCG). As always with Manly, the pressure’s on Cherry-Evans to lead his boys and create chances. Given their injuries, I’m not sure he can unfortunately. They’ll be doing their best I’m sure but can’t see any other result than a semi-comfortable win for the Panthers.

Knights vs Bulldogs 60-40 @ McDonald Jones
The Knights have some pretty ordinary (2-5) form at home. The Doggies weren’t much chop when they played the Titans. Now I see they’ve lost Moses. That might be a good thing actually. Now they have the opportunity to “go hard or go home” as they say. The Knights have more to lose than the Doggies and that might be enough for them to get up in this one.

Broncos vs Raiders 55-45 @ Suncorp
The Broncos are a bit up and down for my liking. But they’re playing at home which you’d think would be an advantage. They’ll need to replicate what they did against the Sharks to have this one in the bag. Weren’t those Raiders good last time eh? Gee they love scoring points. Josh Hodgson has certainly made a difference since coming back. I might just tip the upset here and go the Raiders.

Tigers vs Titans 60-40 @ Leichhardt
The wheels have fallen off the Tigers’ wagon. The big plus for them is having Moses lining up for them as well as the return of Robbie Farah. A big negative is no Benji and maybe no Reynolds (not sure on Josh though). What effect will all these changes have I wonder? The Titans had a good win over the Doggies last time out which would’ve done them the world of good. I reckon they’re a definite chance in this one. I’ll go the Tigers only because of the X-Factor with Moses Mbye and because it’s at Leichhardt. If not for those 2 things I might’ve gone the other way. Nah, play safe. Tigers for me.

Rabbitohs vs Cowboys 75-25 @ Barlow Park
The Bunnies just keep getting the job done and scoring lots of points in the process. The poor ol’ Cowboys have a really rubbish away record so far this year. I’m desperately trying to make a case for the Cowboys winning this but I just can’t. And that’s even taking into account how close it was last time these two met. I’ll go the Bunnies but wouldn’t mind so much if I was made to look foolish.

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points!

It’s “Song of the Week” time again…

OK, something completely different this week. A shovel, 3 strings and a Stanley knife…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p1vjJzW1ro

Cheers y’all…

newbie from perth's picture

@ TAD

Dude, those posts you did on your “date” with Pabdul were “classic” my friend. Funny as heck. Loved, loved, loved it! Had me on the edge of my seat …. what’s Pabdul up to and what’s he gonna do next? Did I mention that I loved, loved, loved it?

Geez Pabdul, how much thought did you put into the day or was it all off the cuff, ad hoc? Great stuff mate. So glad I took the time to read through the 4 pages until I found it. Thanks Mary for putting me onto it. Anyone interested who hasn’t read through the State of Origin - Game 2 posts, it starts on page 4.

Thanks again fellas for brightening my cold and rainy Wednesday night over here in Perth. I can see a Channel 9 mini-series on the horizon….

Coach Potato's picture

Looks like my pre-empting of Germany’s first non-finals World Cup was ahead of its time. All be it only 4 days.

pabdul's picture

Hi Newbie
I was hoping no one would ask me that question because I’d need more than the 4 pages that TAD provided to fill in all the details but I can tell you it was probably 50/50 planned to off the cuff.
Just to give you some insight
When I arrived there was a Tongan family eating maccas in our meeting place my only description of TAD was he’s Irish and wearing a blues jersey so we tried the Hawaiian shirt trick twice on pale skin men before we got our target by the way TAD has olive skin
Thank god the Tongans left
When I asked for his ticket it was to show my mate where he’d be sitting but he wanted to keep it to check if it was any good I didn’t expect TAD to ask for it back straight away and the first thing that came out of my mouth was I gave it away
I don’t know Terry Fahey personally but looked him up and in a 1978 team photo in that photo I saw a previous connection with 4 people Jack Gibson but he’s passed away Bob McCarthy who’s son Darren went to my school Rocky Laurie who I hadn’t seen in 40 years and Nathan Gibbs who also went to my school and he became my contact
Terry is a horse trainer in Wellington 300kms away and had no intention of coming to Origin when he did agree to come he went to the wrong hotel and expected he was going to the game which I didn’t have a ticket for him
Just to finish I’m not that crazy but I had to keep leaving TAD as I was on to the phone to Terry also ken in the Hawaiian shirt and a few others that made it possible ....alright maybe I’m a little crazy but it was all worth it.

Coach Potato's picture

Just checking, did either of you have any opportunity between hijinx and Tom Foolery to see any of the game?

Are you able to offer any live perspective? Only reports to date from lounge rooms suggest Qld were unlucky.

pabdul's picture

Yeah coach I watched the game
The Maroons played better with slater but I wouldn’t say they were the better team
It was a penalty try no doubt hunt purposely moved to prevent him from scoring and Cordner was always going to score the reason it wasn’t 10 in the bin is because it was awarded a try but if they said no try penalty to nsw then Hunt would of gone to the bin

Baggy_Gee's picture

Regardless of the try/no try it needs to be 10 in the bin. If we have had a spike in binnings this year it shows that playing down a man isn't a big enough deterrent. Points and a binning might just get the idea across that it needs to be gone from the game. It was funny the bunch i was watching it with included a lot of obnoxious QLD supporters as well as some sensible ones, even though Tommy got across to the ball first, they were all on their feet screaming for points, the sensible ones say it the way it was and agreed with the Roberts binning. I'll start the call for him to be dropped for game 3 right now, 2 above average games from Roberts still isn't good enough to keep the jersey.

Coach Potato's picture

Baggy is right.

Hunt let’s Cordner thru, he scores. Stays on the field.

Hunt trips Cordner up, try awarded. Hunt stays on the field.

The professional foul went unpunished and shows he may as well have done it. He had nothing to lose and everything to gain.

There was a soccer game last week where a player deliberately hand balled to prevent a goal. Penalty was awarded and he was also sent off.

The professional foul needed to be punished. There is nothing in the rule book that allowed the refs to use Try awarded as sufficient punishment. The refs broke the rules.

pabdul's picture

It didn’t go unpunished
Hunts crime was to prevent a try but as your aware he didn’t prevent it ,it was awarded so that was the penalty qld received ,was the try being scored. l know where your coming from but how is it a p/f if he didn’t prevent the try from being scored?
They’re the rules

a's picture

Yeah I agree even it should have just been a sin bin and not a try

Coach Potato's picture

It went completely unpunished because whether he chose to foul or not, the try is scored.

Qld were intend of conceding 10 minutes to save the try, just like Cronk on Carney in 2012. and for the game to be played in that kind of spirit ie. Foul the attacking team to avoid tries being scored, he should have gone to the bin.

Queensland weren’t being penalised twice. It’s simply that a professional foul = 10 minutes.

Prime example was later on, Roberts was sent to the bin in clearly a non-try scoring situation, (as was Mbye on Boyd a few weeks back), purely because it was a professional foul.

A try awarded is not punishment served for a professional foul. There is no jurisdiction for the ref to have acted in this way.

pabdul's picture

Ok coach whatever
Ever heard of Jamie Ainscough?
1999 GF fouled the player attempting to score a try
Penalty try awarded by the way the reason they call it a penalty try is coz that’s the penalty ...Ainscough wasn’t sin binned
Keep digging

tigerholic's picture

Howdy Coach
I agree with you 100% about Woods and his ability. I never ever rated him at the Tigers and NSW rep games. He doesn't run the ball up like Hargreaves or Klemmer, he backs into the defence like a pussy.
By going to the Sharks he will at least get to play finals footy.

Enjoy the footy.

Tiger

manyana's picture

Hi all, here are my guesses for this week.
Dragons, Sharks, Storm, Panthers, Knights, Broncos, Tigers, Rabbits.
There are some 50/50 calls that I usually get wrong, & I have no reason to believe that this won't happen again this week.
Good luck to everyone.
Cheers, Manyana.

Coach Potato's picture

There’s no digging pabs. It’s qualified information. Just that two wrong calls don’t make it right.

pabdul's picture

How come all your theories are 99%

Coach Potato's picture

The worlds not perfect if you hadn’t noticed

pabdul's picture

If two wrongs don’t make a right
But you believe the wrongs were actually right didn’t the second right confirm the first right was right

Coach Potato's picture

The wrongs were wrong. That’s where the saying comes from. Repeating the mistake doesn’t make it right. Ainscough should have been sent to the sheds, not just concede a try. Hunt should have been in the bin, not just a try.

Ps hope you’re ok
I think those semi and G/F losses to the Panthers have scrambled your marbles.

The Thinker's picture

Actually there was a benefit to NSW...albeit a small one

There is a very tiny chance Cordnor could have fluffed it in the grounding. Remote but possible. Try is given, ruling out that tiny chance of a no try. It's not much....but since you blue people won and it was 3 tries a-piece I would have thought you could move on from here.

And for those people bagging Hunt...there is an argument that leaving him on the field made QLD weaker   :-)

Coach Potato's picture

Let’s be real Thinker, Cordner was going to use his own hands to put the ball down, not Hunt’s.

pabdul's picture

It’s not about moving on it’s about it was the right call and the right decision the only advantage nsw had is the 10 mins that Roberts went off that made Maloney our only turnstile

Coach Potato's picture

Did better than Pearce ever did

tigerholic's picture

Rocket Ryan

Where are thou? You are just like the last runner in the Melbourne Cup to lock into the starting barrier, jumping all over the place, jittery, nervous, for Christ sake man, put your tips in, there are thousands of fans waiting on you for your wisdom.

Tiger

Coach Potato's picture

Yeah yeah no surprise to anyone that a fan of a team containing Cronk would be all good with defenders fouling the attacking team to prevent a try.

The Thinker's picture

I did say it was unlikely.

Every weekend we see players stuff up a try and we ask ourselves 'how the heck did they manage to muck that up?'

Most of those players aren't as good as Cordnor though. To be fair, most of them aren't as good as Hunt either.

Baggy_Gee's picture

On the 1999 issue he should have been sent, exactly as the G.I. hit on Dean Young should have been an auto send off. Both those were disgusting and there have been plenty of others, K. Hunt on Anastia.

Coach Potato's picture

Not try scoring scenario but Terry Lamb on Hanley.

Coach Potato's picture

Not sure if people up in the Sunshine State are aware that’s its WWE down here.

No. Not wrestling.
Wet Wet Everywhere.
Enough to Doust the fire of any Dragon, and yet another omen for those slippery Eels.

christine's picture

My tips rd 16 are as follows
broncos
dragons
knights
panthers
souths
storm
tigers
warriors
Have a good weekend everyone stay safe ...

TigerGirl's picture

Welcome JimmyC
Up the mighty Blues. Hopefully we can get a clean sweep this year.
Go the mighty Tigers, it’s going to be a huge game at Leichardt on Sunday. My tips are in, sorry don’t have time to retype them here tonight.
TigerGirl

christine's picture

Wally hasn't put his tips in & tiger did you introduce yourself to jimmy c , he's a fellow tigers follower ...

mark ashford's picture

Coach it's been raining here for the past two days as well.
Not our usual heavy rain but constant.
Nice to see the NSW supporters having a disagreement about the penalty try. Saves us QLDers posting.

mark ashford's picture

Oh an update on this "dating' site.
Manyana, her significant other (who shall remain nameless for legal reasons) and I met up for an enjoyable coffee this morning at the Bribie Coffee Club (I have already been paid for this mention)
We have decided to take this further with a "date" next week at Bribie's darkened theatre, mainly showing romantic movies, many with an X rating. Not sure who will get to sit in the middle of us three.
Following that we are headed for an intimate candle lit dinner at Bribie's
Hotsie Totsie club and then who knows what will happen.
I thank you all for your interest.

Coach Potato's picture

The numbers at WIN for a team leading the comp are poor to say the least.

Sure it’s a bit wet and it’s a weekday, but it’s still a message loud and clear to the players on the field from their supporter base.

Baggy_Gee's picture

How good was the expression on Mannahs face just before that pass. He was running on empty.

mark ashford's picture

Baggy Is this first plays last?
Where has this been all year?
Are the electric Eels back?

Coach Potato's picture

Both Widdop and Lafai a yard offside. Very quick to say they were not.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Yeah yeah I saw it too Coach. It's been there Mark, but some did ref calls, and terrible mental fortitude by the BOYS has lead to our poor position.

Coach Potato's picture

Hunt is playing like a ......

NuL1F3's picture

Parra raising more than a few eyebrows tonight! What are Dragons doing?

Coach Potato's picture

Dragons are just like their fans.
Forgot to turn up.

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