Brisbane Broncos (2nd) vs North Queensland Cowboys (3rd) – Sunday night – ANZ Stadium
Brisbane Broncos
- Darius Boyd
- Corey Oates
- Jack Reed
- Justin Hodges (c)
- Jordan Kahu
- Anthony Milford
- Ben Hunt
- Sam Thaiday
- Andrew McCullough
- Adam Blair
- Alex Glenn
- Matt Gillett
- Corey Parker
- Jarrod Wallace
- Mitchell Dodds
- Jo Ofahengaue
- Kodi Nikorima
Coach - Wayne Bennett
Fun Fact - Bob Bennett, brother of Wayne, coached the PNG Kumuls for ten years.
North Queensland Cowboys
- Lachlan Coote
- Kyle Feldt
- Justin O'Neill
- Kane Linnett
- Antonio Winterstein
- Michael Morgan
- Jonathan Thurston (c)
- Matt Scott (c)
- Jake Granville
- James Tamou
- Gavin Cooper
- Ethan Lowe
- Jason Taumalolo
- Rory Kostjasyn
- John Asiato
- Scott Bolton
- Ben Hannant
Coach - Paul Green
Fun Fact: Cowboys coach Paul Green is a licensed pilot.
Throughout much of the finals series I've been using the first finals clash between the Broncos and the Cowboys as a reference point. It would be a little silly of me to stop now. Last night I watched that game again, and it was the first time I've actually watched it away from the distractions that come with the spectacle of seeing it live. What a game it was. We have two teams in the final that deserve to be there, and two teams that play an entertaining version of the game. Long may they prosper, and if more teams try to emulate their style in the seasons ahead I'll be one happy spectator.
The Cowboys scored seven tries against the Sharks, and five of them were against the Sharks left edge defence. Of the other two, one was a cross field kick and the other was through the middle (but again they were heading to the left edge defence before straightening the attack. The Cowboys scored six tries against the Storm, and three of them were against the Storms left edge defence. Of the other three, one was a cross field kick, one was from a chargedown and one was on the other side of the paddock when the game was already run and won. It's no secret they'll go their again, but will it work?
The Cowboys threw plenty at the Broncos left edge defence in the first week of the finals. They had more ball and more opportunities, but they scored just once through that corridor, and it took a grubber kick to do so. In that game they had 57% of the possession, made 400 more metres with the ball and made 50 less tackles - and with all that the Cowboys managed one solitary line break. There is nothing wrong with the Cowboys attack - they made six line breaks against the Storm and ten against the Sharks. The Cowboys are a great attacking side, but to get through the Broncos line you have to be greater than great. They can lift to another level, but they'll need to.
Wayne Bennett has made no secret of the fact that most of his time at the Broncos this season has been spent on getting their defence right. It was only after their narrow loss to the Roosters in round 24 that Bennett was satisfied that the team had their defence where he wanted it. Only then did Bennett start working on attacking structures at training. A few days later they took on the Rabbitohs in Sydney...and scored 47 points. Have another look at the Broncos third try against the Roosters last Friday night if you can. It looks spontaneous, but I'll bet my first born that's a structured play from Bennett...and it's brilliant.
The Cowboys conceded two tries to the Storm last week through the middle corridor. They conceded two tries to the Broncos in their 16-12 loss through the middle corridor. This is where the game will be won. Can those big Cowboys forwards contain those dynamic Broncos halves?
A few other important things to note - theoretically this is neutral ground, but I think we can assume the Cowboys will have the weight of support from the crowd. They haven't won a premiership yet, and the affection for Jonathan Thurston seems to cross all borders. Those in NSW that feel the need to hate clubs outside their state tend to hate the Broncos more than the Cowboys...it seems. Goal-kicking could prove the difference too, and usually I would say Thurston wins a kicking contest with Parker every day of the week. In recent times the Thurston radar has been imperfect so the edge to the Cowboys on that front has narrowed. Mind you, Thurston could come out and slot them from everywhere - we'll find out on the night.
In the end, I'm tipping the Broncos in what looks like a grand final for the ages. They haven't had to leave Brisbane for five weeks. They've had one extra days rest after the preliminary final plus they didn't have to travel home from Melbourne on the back of it. The back end of the Cowboys season has seen them play at the following locations - Auckland, Melbourne, Townsville, Brisbane, Townsville, Melbourne...and now Sydney. I suppose that means they should be used to all the travel, but I'm looking for an edge and that's where the Broncos may have an edge. It only takes one moment where Tamou, Scott or Taumalolo feel the long season in their legs and those Broncos halves will capitalise. When we call time on season 2015 that may prove to be the difference.
Verdict – Broncos 22 to Cowboys 20
First try scorer - Michael Morgan
Clive Churchill medallist - Ben Hunt
Wally Lewis - Grand Final (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- BRONCOS vs Cowboys
Tipping Competition - final results
Evening football fans,
Like many Queenslanders I have spent the weekend in New South Wales, although sadly I didn't make it all the way to Sydney, where I would have witnessed one of the greatest sporting contests we've ever seen in this country. What a game. We all thought it would be good but we were lucky to get one that good.
Plenty of plaudits, and rightly so, for Jonathan Thurston, but a standing ovation for Michael Morgan with a pass to tie the match in the dying seconds...and what a pass. To get into that position and then nail the offload.....wow!
Kudos to the Broncos, who led for nearly every minute of the game. Commiserations to Ben Hunt, a man who had a breakout season but has ended the campaign in the worst way possible - three critical errors (a lifting tackle/penalty, losing possession in a one on one strip and then the fumble from the extra time kick-off). Nowhere to hide sadly.
It's worth noting the television audience for this game, which peaked at 4.4 million nationwide. That's half a million more than the AFL grand final...and most of the experts were tipping a smaller audience without a Sydney side in the contest. The experts, as they so often are in this extraordinary game, were wrong.
Now to the season tipping comp, where we had already established our first and second place getters, but third place went down to the wire. And of course Footy Chick and Nik had to tie for third, leaving poor old Thinker with the task of determining a winner. In the end I've given the prize for third to Nik, who correctly tipped the winner and margin in the grand final. Commiserations Footy Chick....hopefully you understand that I had to find a winner somehow.
Tigerholic and Mark A have claimed the footy jersey and the polo shirt as prizes. Nik you can choose a $25 bonus bet from William Hill or a club footy. Let me know what you would like by sending me an email and I shall organise.
Special thanks to the Coach Potato, whose contributions to the site have been both peerless and thought-provoking. Thank you also for running the finals comp. I suppose I better check to see who won and track them down. There's a footy in it for somebody.
And thank you to you all for being here and contributing to the success of the site. It would be pretty ordinary without you. This season we had more than 750,000 visits - nearly a quarter of a million more than in season 2014. Not too bad at all for a humble little footy tipping site.
Thanks also to my little helper, whose tireless work behind the screens goes mostly un-noticed. Of course, not being noticed is the sign of a well-run website I say. Well done sir....let's drink scotch and celebrate shall we?
We'll be back again for season 2016 and yes, for those that are interested I will post my Melbourne Cup preview later in the spring.
Thank you all. Good night and good luck.
Comments
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
A lot of beer is being drunk deservedly in Townsville tonight.
Submitted by a on
I hope for more success next season
Submitted by chooks on
Cheers Coach
finally back to the real world after a massive long weekend
I would like to say Roosters for 2016 but I think Broncos are good things.
great game, great season
Submitted by a on
Can we do a page again for Melboune Cup again this year
Submitted by Coach Potato on
From me, thanks everyone for tolerating my rubbish all year. Its been good. I think footy pages aren't about making friends. The footy comes first, and if team and State rivalry causes friction, I think that only does good for the game. Connection with, and pride in your local community. That's what club and State rivalry achieves and maintains.
Like me or loathe me, I feel like I'm playing my part.
Stats are always interesting but they don't always mean everything. History doesn't always have the answers to the future. Try using last week's Lotto numbers this week, and see how well you do. It is currently of a bit solid theory that the NRL winner comes from the top 3 streak scores. Although AFL failed me with streak no 4 (Hawthorn) beat streak no 2 (West Coast).
Watch out next year anytime during the season for a team on a streak of 5, 6, or more. They could be the one.
Signing off til Melbourne Cup time.
PS - The Darius collapse face-first in agony after Felte touched down will live in my heart forever. Eat dirt you filthy-rat-lie-down-like-a-dead-spider-cheatin-little-prick
Submitted by Coach Potato on
...tune back in for my theory on why roughies win when it's wet.
Submitted by christine on
stats were meant to be broken
Submitted by a on
Yes they are
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Yes, thats true but I'm going back in history and I think the only time in 108 seasons that the winner didn't come from the top 3 streaks of the season was 2009 when Melbourne cheated the salary cap.
That's 0.009 %
Argue against that.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Nice first two posts of the week Steel Panther and Thinker, noting the guy who hung off Morgan and watched him go ..
Submitted by Steel Panther on Wed, 30/09/2015 - 11:52am
After last week the Cows should run at Jack Reed's side. Twice he dropped off one on one tackles on Blake Ferguson which cost tries......
reply
Submitted by The Thinker on Wed, 30/09/2015 - 11:53am
Steel P, that is exactly where they are heading
Submitted by a on
Thanks for a wonderful season Cowboys
Submitted by The Thinker on
Hello Chooks,
Congratulations on winning the Coach Potato tipping competition. I'm guessing you'd like a Roosters footy but I don't want to leap to conclusions.
Can you send me an email at heythinker@the-thinker.org so I can organize delivery of your prize.
All the best
Submitted by chooks on
Thanks Thinker have replied.
Go the Roosters
Submitted by a on
Well do one for Melbourne Cup this year
Submitted by The Thinker on
a,
There will be a Melbourne Cup preview for 2015 - but it won't be written until the Saturday night prior to the Cup (when the field is out).
Tigerholic,
I just realised the email address I posted above is wrong - so if you tried to send me something I apologize. Can you try heythinker@the-thinker.org
All other prizes for Mark A, Nik and Chooks are on their way.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
I think it's great that the Thinker has put up some prizes this season. I'm sure everyone appreciates it. While not a prize winner...thanks!!
Submitted by a on
I have got an idea for a Melbourne Cup competition when the field is sorts every ody can pick a horse that is racing and when that person chooses no one else can choose that horse and if there is a winner they can get a prize
What do you think Thinker
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Hey Thinker, if your preview is almost on Cup eve, any chance of just opening a few free-for-all pages so people can post for the lead-ups - Caulfield Cup day , Cox Plate day , Derby day prior to the Cup day page? You wouldn't have to go into any intros, just offer a place to comment.
We could even have The Thinker Spring Carnival World Tipping Series.
How about this?
Caulfield Cup
Cox Plate
Mooney Valley Cup
MacKinnon Stakes
Lexus Stakes
VRC Derby
Melbourne Cup
Pick a horse for each race.
Get a score as follows...
1st 10 points
2nd 9 points
3rd 8 points
4th 7 points
5th 6 points
6th 5 points
7th 4 points
8th 3 points
9th 2 points
10th 1 point
Worse than 10th - no points.
Getting a bit carried away again aren't I ?
Submitted by Tailspin on
Congrats chooks, I only just looked at the table and I come second with the best points difference, Happy days.
Maybe King Wally might give me an autographed origin jersey ha ha.
Anyway thanks for the awesome year guys and hope to battle it out with you next year. Greatest game of all :)
Submitted by a on
Good idea coach
Submitted by The Thinker on
Coach/a,
I don't think there will be enough interest for another tipping comp. Now that the NRL season is over it's mostly us and tumbleweeds on the site until late February....but I'll tell you what I'll do.
I'll create a new page on the site for the Melbourne Spring Carnival (which basically starts this Saturday with the Caulfield Guineas meeting).
I'll add short previews and tips each week for the main races and people can add comments.
No doubt William Hill will have plenty of betting promotions throughout the carnival so I'll add those in too if anyone is interested.
All the best
Submitted by chooks on
thanks Tailspin
yeah I will send tips in for spring racing for all to see,
I generally do ok.
100% agree Steel Panther, Thinker is my favourite footy site
by far.
cheers all
Submitted by a on
Well me coach and Thinker and chooks will be intrest we need 10 to run it so here is 4 contestants
A
Coach
Thinker
Chooks
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