Round eighteen selections

Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights – Friday night – GIO Stadium

Appearances for the Raiders on Friday nights are rare, so they'll be super-keen to show us what they've got. Let's hope they don't make a meal of it. It's difficult to tip either of these sides with any confidence, but the location and timeslot sways me to the home side. It will be about 4 degrees when they kick-off and when they come out for the second half it will be near enough to zero. Under those conditions, I think the Raiders will be looking for the two points while the Knights will be looking for a fireplace and a Hunter Valley red. Hopefully Jarrod Croker has been working on his defence - he's a quality player but he knows how to miss a tackle from time to time. Assuming Gagai backs up from Origin I expect the Knights will give him plenty of chances. Back him in those try scoring market thingies if you are into such things.

Verdict – Raiders by 4

Result - Raiders 36 defeated Knights 22

Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – Pepper Stadium

It hasn't been a great week for Phil 'what a dismal night this is....oh, unless you're a Queenslander' Gould or Coach Potato and it doesn't get any easier on the weekend. The Panthers have done well in recent weeks but they are still missing some key men in key positions. Assuming the Roosters Origin reps back up they're bringing their best seventeen. The Chooks are looking for four wins in a row and they are one team that look like they are gaining momentum as we approach the business end of proceedings. I can't back the Roosters at $1.45, particularly when you get the same price about the Panthers with 12.5 points start. I'm on the Chooks to scrape home - that should make it all the more painful for Gus and Coach.

Verdict – Roosters by 2

Result - Roosters 24 defeated Panthers 4

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night – ANZ Stadium

The last two times I was super keen on an outsider I was wrong. Very wrong. Because of that, I'm trying to hold my nerve a little. What I say next I say with cautious optimism - The Broncos at $2.50 looks tasty. They haven't put a foot wrong through this Origin period. They've kept winning, and they've kept winning away from home. This time they're facing the Bulldogs, and the Dogs have five of their own Origin players backing up. Hodges gets a rest this weekend as you would expect, but it looks like the remainder of the QLD contingent will be there. Note that all the Broncos backing up from Wednesday are backing up from a series win. For the Bulldogs...its the opposite. It hurts less when you win.

Verdict – Broncos by 4

Result - Broncos 16 defeated Bulldogs 8

Audkland Warriors vs Melbourne Storm – Sunday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

Sixth plays seventh and the loser risks falling away from the leading teams in the top four. The Warriors last two victories have been most impressive, while the Storm have lost three in a row. In any case, this is a step-up in grade for the Warriors and will give us a better guide to their prospects. Storm coach Bellamy has had plenty of experience managing his troops through the Origin period, and he has two of his big three on board for the run into the finals. That said, I'm swaying to the Warriors, as those youngsters in the Storm backline will find those enormous Warriors bodies hard to contain.

Verdict – Warriors by 2

Result - Warriors 28 defeated Storm 14

Cronulla Sharks vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Sunday afternoon – Remondis Stadium

Did Paul Gallen play his last Origin game last night? What a way to go out. A big question mark has to hang over him backing up on Sunday, given the state of his body these days. Mind you, Josh Dugan had his fair share of knocks and is a possible late exclusion too. Keep your eyes and ears peeled for changes. For mine the Sharks are better placed without Gallen than the Dragons are without Dugan. It's all speculation of course until we know more. The folks in the Shire will pack the joint for the local grudge match, and they'll go a long way toward lifting the local lads over the line. In round 12 the Dragons absolutely walloped the Sharks (42-6), but the Dragons have lost their last four and the warning bells are starting to ring. Note that all four losses were by narrow margins, but the Sharks can grind out a narrow win on their home ground better than most. Not remotely confident.

Verdict – Sharks by 2

Result - Sharks 28 defeated Dragons 8

Gold Coast Titans vs Manly Sea Eagles – Monday night – Cbus Super Stadium

I'm not sure what sort of crowd will turn up on a Monday night on the Gold Coast, but 90% of them will be there to vent their frustrations at Daly Hyphen-Evans. Meanwhile, Nate Myles gets to rub shoulders with his future team-mates. No-one can ever accuse the Titans of not turning up, but the injury toll is high and it's hard to know the effects of the looming court cases. Manly are two or three forwards short of a great football team, but a win here goes a long way toward ensuring they avoid a wooden spoon. I expect we'll see quite a few good footy games this weekend, but I don't expect this to be one of them.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 4

Result - Sea Eagles 38 defeated Titans 6

Wally Lewis - round eighteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • RAIDERS vs Knights
  • Panthers vs ROOSTERS
  • Bulldogs vs BRONCOS
  • WARRIORS vs Storm
  • Sharks vs DRAGONS
  • Titans vs SEA EAGLES

Comments

a's picture

Here are my tips

Raiders by 8 I think Newcastle have no chance here

Roosters by 6 Roosters to end Panthers good form here

Buldogs by 6 Broncos to lose their 1st game since round 10

Warriors by 4 Storm to lose 3 in a row here

Sharks by 2 Dragons to lose 5 in a row here

Titans by 1 Titans to win in a upset here

Johnny Boney's picture

Here are my tips for round 18

Raiders by 20- Raiders to absolutely smash Knights here.

Roosters by 8- Panthers will be tough in this one, but Roosters will be to strong here coming off a bye.

Bulldogs by 2- Bulldogs in a close affair.

Warriors by 8- warriors too good here.

The mighty Dragons by 7- Dragons will bounce back here in an almighty local derby. Dragons will start their season all over again here.

And Finally... Sea Eagles by 10- Sea Eagles to win back to back for the second time thi sseason here.

Thganks a lot guys and cheers.

P.S. Johnny ray, don't leave.

Shanghai's picture

Firstly, well done to the Maroons. If you could some how bottle whatever it is that is within a Qld player, you would be worth about eleventy squillion dollars.

I hit the oche when the Blues were 2-0 in front and didn't get an update until after the game was done and dusted ...... I'm just glad I didn't have to watch it.

My tips this week .....

Raiders
Roosters
Broncos
Warriors
Sharks
Sea Eagles

Good luck everyone .....

Coach Potato's picture

Last night was a huge win. No, I didn't bet against NSW.

So how so?

Because I got people talking, arguing, and opinionating with passion about the game. I raised the ire of quite a few. Mark, pretty hard to get him fired up, and the Thinker, almost impossible, but I did it.

Wasn't a good night for NSW, but I think I still won.

a's picture

Well that is because QLD is the best

newbie from perth's picture

Hi everyone,

Newbie’s 50% average took a massive blow last week, tumbling down to 25%. The “mojo” has definitely disappeared and I’m not expecting it to reappear any time soon. I’m not gonna panic though. I’ll just keep plugging away until the missing substance comes back (I hope).

How awesome was Wednesday night? Well, only if you were wearing maroon I suppose. Man, I have no idea what happened to the Blues and for that matter, what happened to the Maroons. Anyway, Newbie was very happy indeed. Big men and big hits! Fights that almost erupted. Clenched fists that remained clenched. A bit of push’n’shove here and a bit of push’n’shove there. Total bewilderment on what Tamou did. Totally underestimated how good Corey Parker actually is (the grey hair confuses me). Records getting broken left, right and centre, not to mention a lot of Blues supporters’ hearts. Cheer up, there’s always next time. Maybe you could quote from Game of Thrones where Tyrion Lannister says to Cersei :

“I will hurt you for this. A day will come when you think you're safe and happy, and your joy will turn to ashes in your mouth. And you will know the debt is paid.”

If you want, you can watch it here. Awesome!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_z_xCWVLXk

Anyhoo, there’s more footy on this weekend so let’s get into it…

Raiders - I’m thinking it’s gonna be nice and cold on Friday night and we all know how much the Raiders enjoy playing in those conditions. Plus they’re at home. The Green Machine for me.

Roosters - yes I was impressed with the Panthers’ effort against the Bunnies but seriously, do you really expect me to tip anyone except my boys? Yes I have done so recently and I ended up with egg on my face. Regardless of the outcome I’ll stick with the Mighty Chooks. Go you Roosters!

Broncos - I see the bookies have the Bulldogs as favourites in this game but the Broncos are on top for a reason. How their Origin players will back up is a slight concern though. Won’t be surprised if they end up getting smacked by the Doggies but I’ll stick with the Ponies in this one. Giddy-up!

Warriors - the Stormers just aren’t the same without Billy The Kid. Warriors have won their last 2 so maybe they’re on a roll. Melbourne a class act even without Billy but I’m going with the Warriors this week. Peow! Peow!

Dragons - last time the Dragons won was Round 12 against the Sharks. Coincidence? A cosmic clue? Who knows. Sharks have been playing well lately but I just have a feeling it might turn sour for them, even at home. One more chance. Dragons for me.

Titans - still can’t get a handle on the Manly mob. Titans had last week off so they should be nice and fresh and rarin’ to go. I’m tipping the Titans, albeit without much confidence. But I’m glad to see our friend “a” has tipped them too. I don’t feel so uneasy now.

@ The Boss - hope you and Mrs Thinker had a great holiday. I can just picture it now. Soft candlelight, a bottle of Red, romantic music and long, periods of soulful eye gazing. Ah, ain’t love grand! You’re a lucky man indeed Thinker. Welcome back.

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week people. Cheers.

P.S. Is it considered rude to stare at blind people? Hmmm…

Tailspin's picture

Hey everyone, well what can I say about Wednesday night, hhhmmmm, go QLD ye ha, that should sum it up, maybe another big run of wins coming our way again, lets hope so.
Anyway back to the round,
Raiders by 10
Roosters by 2
Dogs at home might be to good for the broncos by 4
Storm are due for a win with cronk back by 6
Sharks by 6, to many injuries for the going backwards Dragons
Eagles by 14

mark ashford's picture

Good morning Thinker, TLH and all others.
Yes Coach I'm guilty as charged. You got to me so well done. My only excuse is I was in the grip of the grape (several bottles of good red).
The maroons were very good but the blues seemed kinda flat, had nowhere near the intensity they played in Melbourne.
Bring on SOO 2016
I'm with the Thinker this week...
Raiders
Roosters
Broncos
Warriors
Sharks
Manly
Coach the only reason I haven't taken your Panthers is Mitchell Pearce. He was pretty ordinary on Wednesday and he lifts at club level.
I think we'll see a good game from young Mitchell and Maloney is in good form. This may come back to bite me but that's footy.
JR hope to see your post soon!!
Good luck all.

Coach Potato's picture

Sign a petition to say #WeWantJohnnyRay

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a's picture

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a

Also we want Guru and Joker back

Baggy_Gee's picture

Ok, finally back to the real football. I started with the formula from the last few weeks, and then tossed it as I looked at the actual teams.

Raiders - Both lost last start and the Raiders are at home. Given the fact that Canberra is about to freeze so the Knights may struggle, struggle badly.

Panthers - Again both won last start and Panthers are at home. So following the rules for the first two. Just also have the feeling that the Panthers have the starting confidence to take it to the Roosters. And Bryce Cartwright should be an Eel.

Broncos - Here is where I leave the rules, can't go past the Baby Ponies. Each time they have been called upon they have answered. Their forwards might be feeling a little stiff, especially in the weather down south after a big origin game, but they should be able to stand up to the Bulldogs. Also the exclusion of Hodges will strengthen their attack as everyone else seems to know how to pass.

Warriors - Are showing a bit of form and I'm back on the rules. Last start winners against the last start losers. Thinking that it will be tight but a late Shuan Johnson inspired try should seal the deal.

Sharks - I have dithered about this game all week. No Merrin and the other injuries that the Dragons have are telling and as both last start losers its the Sharks at home.

Manly - Again breaking the breaking of the rules, and my rock solid, make a selection and don't change it. Titans can lose by 12 and there will be no change in the table. that is reason enough to take the Titans, but, but, but, Manly are starting to come good. Not good enough to avoid Coach's theory of losing streaks and bottom or top 4. But good enough to to beat the Titans in their own backyard. Foran to have a blinder and help that other half to look good.

BOYS are on a weekend off,a good run over the bye period, hopefully leading to 4 straight against the Bulldogs next Friday night. Looks to be heading in the right direction at the moment.

Islander's picture

Hey, everyone. looks like I owe an apology to the Queenslanders. Boy did they prove me wrong? Sorry couldn't join in during the game, by half time I was already on my walk of shame.

#WeWantJohnnyRay

forth signature
Islander

Coach Potato's picture

KNIGHTS- both teams, Raiders and Knights are only 1 from their last 6. Add that to a 2 degree night and some light showers and to me, doesn't exactly equal husband saying to wife, "Hey, these teams are both 1 from their last 6, and it's going to be 2 degrees with some light showers tonight. Who cares if its live on tele. Pack the kids. Let's go!!!!!" I think not. Times like this its the home team that feels the pressure, and the away team with the feeling they have nothing to lose. Sticky's gonna be asking more questions about his future after this one.

PANTHERS - Defensively Panthers were great last week, and don't like to say but DeeWahZee looked much stronger running the ball back than Moylan ever has. Sounds crazy, but they look a stronger team without him. Koroisau is also no Segeyaro, but he's doing ok. Bryce Cartwright? Yeah he seems to be holding his place.

BRONCOS - Bennett will be reminding that the Grand Final has not yet been hijacked, so still played in Sydney. That in mind, better get used to semi-final atmosphere, and winning down here. What better practice than Belmore?

STORM - Including byes, Melbourne have only won once in the last 7 weeks. No doubt Cronk, Smith, and Chambers who just had the game of their lives will spread some winning energy with the rest of the team. Hard for them not to.

SHARKS - Two teams with not much idea in the opposition quarter, but maybe Sharks with slightly more. No merrin ain't gonna hurt the Sharks chances. Dragons 1 win in last 7 weeks, Sharks 2 wins in last 7 weeks. Another game (not) for the ages.

SEA EAGLES - First time this year that Manly have stepped on a plane, having won their previous game. That usually makes the trip more enjoyable and should translate to another good performance on field. What could be better than a trip to the Gold Coast in the middle of Winter, and don't need to play til Monday!

Steel Panther's picture

Fifth signature
Steel Panther

Raiders, Roosters, Bulldogs, Warriors, Sharks, Sea Eagles for me this week.

Hope you NSW lads have recovered. Good luck everyone!!

Coach Potato's picture

Is totally curious to me how anyone thinks they are going to make ground up in the tipping by going with all the favourites.

Surely Canberra are not going so well as to hold 95% support. Surely Penrith at home arent going so bad as to hold only 5% support. Time will tell what Sunday breakfast hot croissants and cuppa tastes like.

Islander's picture

My tips This Round

Knights
Roosters
Bulldogs
Storm
Dragons
Titans

newbie from perth's picture

#WeWantJohnnyRay

6th Signature

C'mon people, let's get it happenin'

Steel Panther's picture

Surely you're not serious Johnny Ray. You are one of the Origin-als!!!

Coach Potato's picture

Last week saw game no. 18 where a team has started at $3 or more.

St George $1.30 v North Queensland $3.35

Roughie Cowboys Ka-ching Ka-ching got the cash again.
That now makes the tally of $3+ roughies (10) - hot hot favourites (8).

Newcastle have blown out to $3.10 for tonight's big roughie game no. 19, while Gold Coast have touched $3 for their game on Sunday, big roughie game no. 20.

Coach Potato's picture

C'mon Panthers blow just a smidgen

Coach Potato's picture

$10 on each of these roughies, and so far you would have collected $354 for an outlay of $180.

That's close enough to doubling your money this year on the no-hopers. Crazy but true.

a's picture

Please come back Johnny Ray

Not Johnny Ray's picture

Yeah hey again everyone !

This is Not Johnny Ray here, meaning this is not Johnny Ray putting tips up this week, this is not Johnny Ray posting up commentary on the weekend's upcoming games and this is definitely not Johnny Ray deciding to add his picks to this week's scoreboard. Not after what happened on Wednesday where I had said if Blues go on to lose game I will never ever come back to this site again. Still I heard that you guys missed me so guess what I'm back ! Thanks for that guys ! It really means alot. Much love. Let's get on with this week's tips. Good luck everybody !

Raiders - Knights after winning their first five games of this season hasn't
won game since and though I think this will be close game I still can't see them winning this contest. Raiders by eight points.

Panthers - Panthers are surprising everybody again this season so I can't back against them playing at home against Roosters a team that has been struggling for points all year. Panthers by four points.

Bulldogs - Broncos and Cowboys are the teams to beat this year as an All Queensland Derby looks more and more like certain as we head towards Grand Final Day in October. Still with players they have out plus playing away from home should give Bulldogs the advantage they need to be able to beat Broncos and get back into top eight. Bulldogs by four points.

Warriors - This is one of those sort of games that they could lose as they seem to always lose games when they come back from bye. So if Storm win here I won't get too upset. But still I'm backing them to win. Warriors by eight points.

Dragons - Sharks just can't win games at moments that's why I'm going with Dragons to take two points off them on their home turf. Dragons by twelve points.

Sea Eagles - Titans could win here but I just can't see how no matter how much Sea Eagles are below them and near bottom of ladder. Except Daly Cherry Evans to lift here. Sea Eagles by sixteen points.

Thanks again everybody ! Thanks again Thinker ! Go NZ Warriors ! Kiwi Power ! Peow ! Peow ! ;-D

The Thinker's picture

I'll miss Johnny Ray, but this Not Johnny Ray seems like my kind of guy.

a's picture

Welcome back JR

Coach Potato's picture

Something's been bugging me for a while and now I've worked it out. I wish I knew who all the tipsters' teams are.

The ones I'm not sure of are:

#King Wally (Broncos or Gold Coast? No fence sitting please, Your Majesty)

#Shanghai

#Footy Chick

#Rick

#Nik

#The Thinker

#Islander

#Johnny Boney

#AnyoneElseThatOccasionallyPosts-TellUsWhatColourYouAre

(Regular weekly tipsters not named, I know who you follow -unless of course Sharks emblems and Cowboys jumpers are just shrewd tipping smokescreens!)

Declan_S's picture

Raiders, Roosters, Broncos, Warriors, Sharks, Sea Eagles

CAZZA's picture

im new to this site....love be up dated with the local talk.....

Coach Potato's picture

Looking more like soggy toast and cold coffee Sunday brekky. Mm-mmm!

I gotta say, I really wish Shayne Hayne would get the F.. out of the video box every time there's a game at Penrith. No prize for guessing who's pushing the buttons tomorrow. Fair dinkum. He's dodge city. Feels like your 10 points down before the game starts.

CAZZA's picture

gday,im Cazza,from.noonamah,Darwin,Sharkys supporter......im glad im not in Canberra tonight,,,looks like they are all smoking pot~~~~hahahaha

Coach Potato's picture

Nice one Cazza. 33 degrees up there definitely better than down here. They were politicians in the crowd you spotted.

88 to 28 in my last two tips. Not so hot

Baggy_Gee's picture

Oh well bye bye JR. Hello new guy, Thinkers right to like the cut of your jib, happy sailing these rocky shoals with this mob of scurvy cut throats. And I agree Coach, Panthers have been playing a lot better than people have been giving them credit

Coach Potato's picture

Was only observing how (the one that shall be named Dodge City) continually gets the Penrith game. It's like he makes calls to get noticed ala Bill Harrigan, and since he's not out on the field anymore, has to try even harder to get noticed, and make even dodgier calls - usually to the detriment of the Panthers. There's just don't go both ways. I'd go but I literally don't want to risk paying my hard-earned , only to be cruelled by (the one that shall be named Dodge City).

a's picture

I think the thinker supports the broncos

newbie from perth's picture

Yay! JR (or not) is back! It was only a couple of days but we missed ya big fella.

Coach - as his real life brother, I can dob Shanghai in and let you know he's a Roosters Man! Runs in the family eh?

While I'm at it I can dob Shanghai in again and let everyone know it's his birthday today! No, I won't divulge his age but here's hoping he gets a Roosters win tonight. It will be a nice birthday present.

Stay cool everyone, I know I am. It's just gone 6am and I'm slaving away at work sitting in front of a screen dealing with stuff and it's crept up to a whopping 4C. Dude, it's 26C at 5.15am in Chiang Mai at the moment.

Anyway, good luck with your footy this week.

Welcome CAZZA!

Coach - agree with you on Shayne Hayne for what it's worth.

Peace...

Coach Potato's picture

Thanks 'a'. Wasn't sure if Thinker was just on this year's bankwagon, or if there was another jersey in the closet.

#Austin starring last night was tough to watch 48 hrs after Origin. NSW selectors really need to get their heads out of the sand. The pick and stick theory works for QLD because there's a core of great players. Ie. The ones you would pick in the starting 13 for Australia - or at least in the mix for Kangaroo honours. That's your core. Noone else.

NSW even after last year only had a core of 3 or 4. The rest deserved to come from in form players. Here's what I think of this year's team

1. Dugan - Kangaroo? Not if others are fit - No NSW incumbency
2. Hopoate - Kangaroo? No. No NSW incumbency
3. Jennings - Kangaroo? Yes. Core NSW incumbent
4. J.Morris - Kangaroo? In the mix. Claims for NSW incumbency.
5.B.Morris - Kangaroo? In the mix. Claims for NSW incumbency.
6.Pearce - Kangaroo? No. No NSW incumbency
7.Hodkinson - Kangaroo? No. No NSW incumbency
8.Tamou - Kangaroo? Yes. Core NSW incumbent
9.Ennis - Kangaroo? No. No NSW incumbency
9. Farah - Kangaroo? Not if others are fit - No NSW incumbency
10. Woods - Kangaroo? In the mix. Claims for NSW incumbency
11. B.Scott - Kangaroo? Not if others are fit. No NSW incumbency
12. Hoffman - Kangaroo? In the mix. Claims for NSW incumbency
13. Gallen - Kangaroo? In the mix if fit. Claims for NSW incumbency
14. Merrin - Kangaroo? In the mix. Claims for NSW incumbency
15. Cordner - Kangaroo? Not for mine. No NSW incumbency
16. Klemmer - Kangaroo? In the mix. Claims for NSW incumbency
17. Jackson - Kangaroo? No. No NSW incumbency

#Jennings and Tamou - the only automatic selections
#7 others with claims, recalled but only if in good form
#8 others with no claims, only recalled if best showing best positional form in NRL, else call in whoever that is.

Like I say, the pick and stick only worked for Qld because they were picking and sticking with Kangaroos, or Kangaroo standard players. You can't have that policy with Tom Dick and Harry.

This is not sour grapes. This is forward thinking as opposed to backward thinking. NSW selectors, I'm happy for you to listen. (Actually I'm praying)

Coach Potato's picture

*bankwagon - somehow slipped passed spellcheck??? A freudian slip meaning put your house on the Broncos???? :/

a's picture

NSW will never win again

The Thinker's picture

Coach,

I'd rather not say who my team is, but I can say that it isn't the Broncos.

I do live within spitting distance of Broncos HQ....so I get to see plenty of them.

Coach Potato's picture

Very sure of yourself, a, but I bet you wouldn't put money on that one

Coach Potato's picture

Up to yourself. Don't think enough of your team to say so? Don't want to have to cop losses on the chin?

Sounds like a team in the bottom 8 then, and more likely bottom half of bottom 8. I think I've narrowed it down

Coach Potato's picture

Broncos and Cowboys are both $1.01 to make the semis.

Not better than bank interest you say?
Wrong.

We are only talking about the next 2 months.
$1.01 for the next 2 months is the equivalent of $1.06 for 12 months.
I don't know any bank that offers you 6% on your savings.

$1.01, better than bank interest.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Coach, I agree as a NSW supporter, He may not have changed the result in game 3 but Blake "Dangers" Austin has that youthful enthuasiam coupled with great talent and skills. He would have given QLD a few headache's. Same as Bryce Cartwright, I know that as a club man you breath a sigh of relife that your BOYS aren't missing potentially 6 games a season with origin duties but surely he has made a compelling case to get a run.

Also Always had the Thinker pegged as a Rusty Crowe man, don't know why but alway been my thoughts.

christine 's picture

Thinker your spam filter won't let me post comments

a's picture

I think it will be a Cowboys vs Broncos grand final this year bang bang

christine 's picture

johnny ray stay on the tipping ladder you belong here bro

Rick's picture

I think you will be proved right a , I am convinced at this stage too.

mark ashford's picture

To Johnny Ray or not Johnny Ray welcome back bro you belong on this site so stay tuned you hear!

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